Werewolf XXXIII: Animal Farm (SEE POST #4 FOR ALL UPDATES)

[hoopsguy]

OK, was going to suggest taking out an insurance policy by posting the results from Days 1, 3, and 5 at that time in the event that something happens. I'm only 75% on my block, so there is a chance this doesn't break in our favor.

If you are dead in the morning it is obvious you were not a Revolutionary. But that information would die with you. Along with any information you may or may not have gained from Clover.

[hoopsguy]

I think GoldenEagle has been awfully fortunate this game, as he has been up for a number of lynches.

I also have no idea why he doesn't assert himself in the thread to try and address/reduce the suspicions around him.

[Swaggs]

Grey, I suggest sending the option to Alan T if I am killed tonight.

[Fouts]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Grey, I suggest sending the option to Alan T if I am killed tonight.

Concur.

[Swaggs]

At least that way, it is isn't a pre-determined person that can corroborate with him if he is lying.

[Fouts]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

At least that way, it is isn't a pre-determined person that can corroborate with him if he is lying.

I like somebody other than Grey picking the person. Alan is a good choice.

[Lorena]

I should probably explain my vote for Chubby.

I haven't caught up but based on what I knew before Blade was killed and what little I skimmed through, Greyroofoo claims to know something so I'm trusting him for tonight.

I figure if Greyroofoo is telling the truth, than Chubby is lying and thus my vote. And no Greyroofoo, GE and I are not in league, I know nothing about him.

I really, really struggled with tonight's vote but I logged on and posted a quick vote after I had to log back off and tend to some RL issues. I just hope I voted for the right person.

Back offline until later. I hope I didn't blow it for us

[Greyroofoo]

I have chosen Swaggs / Alant as a PM partner

[Swaggs]

I hope I am around to help you all tomorrow.

[bulletsponge]

this thread is going thru smiley withdrawls

[GoldenEagle]

I have been out the entire weekend. I came in and voted quickly and then went out to eat. I have some issue that I will clarify in the morning.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

I have been out the entire weekend. I came in and voted quickly and then went out to eat. I have some issue that I will clarify in the morning.

Why are you so confident that you will be alive in the morning? If it is something important, why on earth would you risk getting killed by the revolutionaries tonight before sharing it with us?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Why are you so confident that you will be alive in the morning? If it is something important, why on earth would you risk getting killed by the revolutionaries tonight before sharing it with us?

Its easy to be confident that you won't die if you're the one doing the killing.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Its easy to be confident that you won't die if you're the one doing the killing.

Agreed.

If I go down tonight, please someone take a long, long look at GE.

[path12]

The night passes quietly for the most part and you sleep soundly.......until the sounds of fighting erupt from one of the barns. The sounds of the battle are fierce, the air is punctuated with whinnies and barking, and you rush over to find hoopsguy standing by Swaggs' stall, breathing heavily.

DAY 7 HAS BEGUN. LYNCH DEADLINE IS 9PM EASTERN.

[Alan T]

I think we finally caught a break. Hoops, tell me you have some good news.

[Swaggs]

Excellent work, hoops. Hopefully you picked up some additional information.

I can say, without question, that hoops and Grey are on our side.

[Fouts]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Excellent work, hoops. Hopefully you picked up some additional information.

I can say, without question, that hoops and Grey are on our side.

Awesome. So they went after swaggs, and hoops stopped them. How do you know Grey is on our side?

[Thomkal]

woot Hoops! Fouts I'm assuming he got the PM from Grey?

[hoopsguy]

Why are you so confident that you will be alive in the morning?

Because the bodyguard does not have any chance to kill a Revolutionary. He attacked me.

VOTE GOLDENEAGLE

[hoopsguy]

Down to nine players.

Trusted:
Swaggs
Hoops (I hope)
Greyroofoo

Distrusted:
GoldenEagle (soon to be lynched)

We are moving into a pretty solid position. I'll be able to cover 25% of the remaining 8 players tonight, assuming the game is still running at that point.

[hoopsguy]

FWIW, I did not initially intend to guard Swaggs last night. But I did not trust AlanT with the information, so I was going to do whatever I could to make sure that there was not an opportunity for Alan to be the one "clearing" Grey.

If we gave the information to a bad guy he says he never got the PM, and we get into a staredown between those two - I'm pretty sure I know how that would have gone. Then we would have gotten no role information on death ... potentially nasty.

The fact that they attacked me instead of Swaggs makes me feel better about Alan T, for what it is worth. By attacking me, they were conceding that Swaggs would clear Grey.

[Thomkal]

vote goldeneagle

[Thomkal]

Well I think we need to look at Dodgerchick after goldeneagle. She has been after Grey for the past few days and then just so happened to come in at the very last minute to vote for Chubby when she had the whole weekend to vote.

I also am a bit suspicious of Fouts. He seemed to be questioning Grey's Moses claim quite a bit over the weekend. Anyone else see this? Like you Hoops, I thought Alan T was the not the best choice for Grey's "safety net" if Swaggs was killed. I've been suspicious of him since I entered the game, which is why I questioned him first when I started playing.

I suppose I have to be viewed suspiciously since I voted for Chubby over Golden Eagle last night. I did not like the fact that he controlled the voting on Real Deal (and I voted with him), and then voting for Grey yesterday which no regular barnyard animal (of which I am one) should be doing in a game where we had no information on anyone's roles. Grey's information, if true, would have broken the game open, and every barnyard animal would benefit from it.

[hoopsguy]

Thomkal, I'm not sure where we head after GE quite yet. But we can now look at GoldenEagle's voting record over the duration of the game to start putting some pieces together.

Also, I'm going to be starting work on a new project today. So that will likely limit my participation. I fully expect to be here for last hour, but don't really know how much between now and then.

[Thomkal]

Bah Hoops, how can work be more important than Werewolf?

[hoopsguy]

Heh, I need to get company policy modified. Or get that buy-in from my clients. Perhaps we change our contract language

[Chubby]

boy, never would have guessed last nights happenings

[Passacaglia]

hoops, right after I left yesterday, you asked me to explain what posts I was talking about with my GE vote. Do you still need me to do that? It sounds like you don't need it anymore, but it was basically the whole idea that he voted for RealDeal, said he would give us some info later. Then, when later came, he said he was too afraid to give the info, lest he die -- then later said that all he was going to say was why he voted for RealDeal -- and he didn't even explain that! Anyway, I love the smell of bandwagon in the morning.

Vote GoldenEagle

[Thomkal]

Day 1 Final Votes:

Anxiety 3 -- ardent (146), BrianD (177), Swaggs (180)
Swaggs 3 -- Anxiety (107), Lathum (144), hoops (219)
BrianD 2 -- Bek (131), Passacaglia (153)
RealDeal 2 -- saldana (152), Grammaticus (169)
Blade6119 2 -- Greyroofoo (92), RealDeal (197)
Conflaguration 1 -- st.cronin (77)
Chubby 1 -- bulletsponge (74)
hoops 1 -- Alan T (75)
Bek 1 -- Dodgerchick (79)
bulletsponge 1 -- Chubby (80)
Greyroofoo 1 -- Blade (85)
st.cronin 1 -- Conflaguration (97)

Not voting: GoldenEagle
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Day 2 Final Voting:

bulletsponge 7 -- BrianD (364), Chubby (373), GoldenEagle (400), Anxiety (409), Swaggs (424), Lathum (440), RealDeal (443)
GoldenEagle 4 -- Alan T (296), Grammaticus (297), bulletsponge (349), Greyroofoo (432)
BrianD 3 -- Bek (343), Conflaguration (379), Blade (430)
Anxiety 1 -- Passacaglia (381)
Grammaticus 1 -- Dodgerchick (382)
Passacaglia 1 -- hoopsguy (425)

Not voting: ardent
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Day 3 Final Voting:

Bek 4 -- BrianD (602), Alan T (690), RealDeal (711), Greyroofoo (730)
Greyroofoo 4 -- Blade (603), GoldenEagle (630), Bek (633), Chubby (732)
Ardent 2 -- Grammaticus (634), hoopsguy (731)
Anxiety 2 -- Passacaglia (646), Swaggs (688)
Chubby 1 -- Anxiety (734)
GoldenEagle 1 -- Dodgerchick (716)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Day 4: Final Voting:

BrianD 5 -- Hoops (1250), Swaggs (1255), Alan T (1261), Greyroofoo (1266), GoldenEagle (1300)
Greyroofoo 3 -- BrianD (1195), Dodgerchick (1209), Fouts (1286)
Hoopsguy 1 -- Chubby (894)
Blade 1 -- Passacaglia (1056)
Ardent/Fouts 1 -- Grammaticus (1142)
Dodgerchick 1 -- RealDeal (915)

Not voting: Conflaguration. I will start looking for a replacement.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Day 5: Final Voting:

RealDeal 4 -- Chubby (1407), GoldenEagle (1553), Thomkal (1641), Blade (1653)
GoldenEagle 4 -- Alan T (1436), hoopsguy (1569), Greyroofoo (1637), RealDeal (1654)
Greyroofoo 2 -- Fouts (1598), Dodgerchick (1627)

Not voting: Swaggs, Passacaglia
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Day 6: Final Voting:

Chubby 5 -- Thomkal (1844), Alan T (1854), Fouts (1897), GoldenEagle (1909), Dodgerchick (1942)
GoldenEagle 4 -- Passacaglia (1838), Swaggs (1862), hoopsguy (1870), Greyroofoo (1892)
Greyroofoo 1 -- Chubby (1834)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

[Alan T]

vote goldeneagle


Well guess today's vote is pretty easy.

[Alan T]

How many bad guys do we think there are left? If they are willing to make a bold move last night, is that a sign of confidence or desperation? Grey says that they killed off both of their allies at night, and we had been working under the assumption of at least 2 dead bad guys during the day. If this is #5, thats pretty close to the max bad guys that I had figured in.

Any chance this vote might end the game?

[hoopsguy]

Alan, I was thinking through the same thing.

Worst case - the Revolutionaries started with three people + Sympathizer. We kill our first Revolutionary here, they activate the still alive Sympathizer, and we go into this evening with a 5 vs 3 scenario. They are a night kill and bad lynch away from victory, but we have three known goods at this point and my bodyguard role (now proven) complicates things quite a bit.

Medium worst case - Revs started with two people + Sympathizer. Everything else is identical to above, we go into this evening with a 5 vs 2 scenario.

I don't think we can assume they were down to their last man at this point, even if that is what we would like to see. I'm guessing they figured they would have to deal with me at some point in the game and could not keep holding out hope that I would be lynched. So they took their shot now, rather than waiting until later.

I doubt they would do this in the above worst case mode. If they really had 3+Sympathizer going into last night with 9 people left they try like heck to avoid me. Then point out that I haven't stopped anything all game, and see if they can get me for the game-ending lynch.

Most likely is that they have 1-2 right now, and we are taking one away at the end of this day.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Alan, I was thinking through the same thing.

Worst case - the Revolutionaries started with three people + Sympathizer. We kill our first Revolutionary here, they activate the still alive Sympathizer, and we go into this evening with a 5 vs 3 scenario. They are a night kill and bad lynch away from victory, but we have three known goods at this point and my bodyguard role (now proven) complicates things quite a bit.

Medium worst case - Revs started with two people + Sympathizer. Everything else is identical to above, we go into this evening with a 5 vs 2 scenario.

I don't think we can assume they were down to their last man at this point, even if that is what we would like to see. I'm guessing they figured they would have to deal with me at some point in the game and could not keep holding out hope that I would be lynched. So they took their shot now, rather than waiting until later.

I doubt they would do this in the above worst case mode. If they really had 3+Sympathizer going into last night with 9 people left they try like heck to avoid me. Then point out that I haven't stopped anything all game, and see if they can get me for the game-ending lynch.

Most likely is that they have 1-2 right now, and we are taking one away at the end of this day.

Thats what I was thinking, but I was throwing it out to see if I was overthinking this. I guess my question is why you and why not grey or swaggs or even me. Maybe its wishful thinking, but to me it sounds like we're close and with GE being our likely lynch target even before this move it feels like desperation.

[Greyroofoo]

I just PMed Swaggs.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Because the bodyguard does not have any chance to kill a Revolutionary. He attacked me.

VOTE GOLDENEAGLE

Can you clarify this? He attacked YOU? Or Swaggs?

[hoopsguy]

He attacked me, not Swaggs.

[hoopsguy]

Thinking about this some more, I'm guessing there is one more Revolutionary left besides GE. They figured GE was going to come under serious scrutiny no matter what today, so why not try to take care of a role that was going to be problematic for them down the stretch.

Swaggs, any new information for either you or Grey to pass along? We still do not know about the four people who died on N1, N3, N5, and N6 - trusting you to use your best judgement on revealing them and/or anything about potential lynch information that may have been passed along to Grey.

[Swaggs]

Alright... catching up.

[Swaggs]

Has anyone claimed any of the tiebreaks yet?

I think that, if you are on the side of good, you should reveal that information at this point, as it could really close things down for us.

[Alan T]

I haven't had any tiebreaks yet.

[Swaggs]

Here are things I know for sure:

Grey is Moses/Clover. I now understand and respect why he will not say which, as it keeps the revs guessing.

Hoops is clearly Boxer, based on the writeup, the fact that no one died, and his verification.

Swaggs is Benjamin.

Lathum was Pilkington.

Gramm was Squealer.

[Thomkal]

Just a note: Have to take a family member to the doctors, so I'll be away for a couple hours, and potentially, but unlikely, I won't be here at lynch time.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I haven't had any tiebreaks yet.

Nor have I.

[hoopsguy]

Swaggs, here are the claimed tie-breaks so far:

Day 1 - unclaimed
Day 3 - BrianD claimed it (Bek lost against Grey)
Day 5 - Chubby claimed it (RealDeal lost against GE - I think?)

[hoopsguy]

I have not held the tiebreaker at any point this game.

[Thomkal]

I did not have any of the tiebreaks.

[Lorena]

Vote GoldenEagle

I don't think I need to explain myself as it's clear he attacked hoopsguy.

[Lorena]

dola,

I wonder why Chubby didn't vote for GoldenEagle, it might have saved him.

[Swaggs]

Hoops, do you feel pretty good about voting for GE today?

I feel pretty good that Real Deal was one of the revs. In my opinion, GE and one other person are the remaining revs, and I have a pretty good guess who the other person is, but I'll hold off on that for a bit to see how today develops.