Werewolf XCVI: The Dark One and The Order of Righteousness (GAME OVER EVIL WINS)

[SnDvls]

Final Day 1 Vote Count:

Pass Jail - 10 - Clap (222), USFL (253), MartinD (261), Hoops (300), path12 (344), Tyrith (366), lerriuqs (372), Pass (380), Jackal (383), BK (395)
BK Jail - 8 - Lathum (177), Render (210), SnDvLs (233), DT (235), saldana (278), CR (295), Danny (349), Kwhit (369)
KWhit Jail - 2 - Autumn (254), Telle (320)
KWhit Lynch - 1 - Schmidty (298)

Day 2 Final Vote Count:

Abe/Clap Jail - 5 - USFL (528), Telle (618), DT (624), CR (626), KWhit (666)
BK Jail - 4 - Lathum (497), MartinD (527), Sndvls (532), lerriuqs (547)
Abe/Clap Lynch - 3 - Saldana (503), The Jackal (560), BK (698)
Pass Jail - 3 - Tyrith (718), Autumn (770), RendeR (783)
USFL Lynch - 2 - Path (557), Schmidty (558)
KWhit Lynch - 1 - Clap (656)
Telle Jail - 1 - Danny (736)

Final Day 3 Vote Count:

Abe Jail - 6 - RendeR (1056), CR (1060), Jackal (1063), lerriuqs (1065), KWhit (1095), DT (1168)
Abe Lynch - 4 - Path (1042), Martin (1045), USFLTecmo (1074), BK (1108)
Autumn Lynch - 4 - SnDvls (1050), Lathum (1077), Saldana (1178), Pass (1194)
DaddyTorgo Jail - 3 - Autumn (1087), Abe (1112), Telle (1126)


Day 4 Final Vote Count:

KWhit Lynch - 14 - Lathum (1258), Pass (1321), Autumn (1323), Lerriuqs (1326), SnDvls (1328), Path (1338), CR (1342), USFL (1350), Saldana (1359), Jackal (1377), Telle (1382), Barkeep (1397), MartinD (1435), RendeR (1440)

Lathum Lynch - 1- KWhit (1380)

Day 5 Final Vote Count:

Lathum Lynch - 11 - Jackal (1510), Autumn (1514), USFL (1526), BK (1546), MartinD (1602), Path (1608), Abe (1614), Saldana (1649), RendeR (1676), Leriuqs (1682), CR (1685),

Lathun Jail - 1 - SnDvls (1565),

Barkeep49 Jail - 1 - Pass (1607)

Did Not Vote: Lathum



Day 6 Final Vote Count:

Saldana Lynch - 11 - USFL (1755), Abe (1756), CR (1757), Lerriuqs (1758), Jackal (1759), Autumn (1761), SnDvls (1762), MartinD (1763), RendeR (1767), BK (1768), Path (1772)

Failed to Vote: Saldana


Day 7 Final Vote Count:

Barkeep Lynch - 6 - SnDvls (1842), MartinD (1866), USFLTecmo (1867), Path12 (1883), Autumn (1900), Lerriuqs (1921)

USFLTecmo Lynch - 4 - RendeR (1874), Abe Sargent (1882), The Jackal (1895), Barkeep (1899)



my do not trust list

RendeR
USFL
Lerriuqs
.

[lerriuqs]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

Final Day 1 Vote Count:

Pass Jail - 10 - Clap (222), USFL (253), MartinD (261), Hoops (300), path12 (344), Tyrith (366), lerriuqs (372), Pass (380), Jackal (383), BK (395)
BK Jail - 8 - Lathum (177), Render (210), SnDvLs (233), DT (235), saldana (278), CR (295), Danny (349), Kwhit (369)
KWhit Jail - 2 - Autumn (254), Telle (320)
KWhit Lynch - 1 - Schmidty (298)

Day 2 Final Vote Count:

Abe/Clap Jail - 5 - USFL (528), Telle (618), DT (624), CR (626), KWhit (666)
BK Jail - 4 - Lathum (497), MartinD (527), Sndvls (532), lerriuqs (547)
Abe/Clap Lynch - 3 - Saldana (503), The Jackal (560), BK (698)
Pass Jail - 3 - Tyrith (718), Autumn (770), RendeR (783)
USFL Lynch - 2 - Path (557), Schmidty (558)
KWhit Lynch - 1 - Clap (656)
Telle Jail - 1 - Danny (736)

Final Day 3 Vote Count:

Abe Jail - 6 - RendeR (1056), CR (1060), Jackal (1063), lerriuqs (1065), KWhit (1095), DT (1168)
Abe Lynch - 4 - Path (1042), Martin (1045), USFLTecmo (1074), BK (1108)
Autumn Lynch - 4 - SnDvls (1050), Lathum (1077), Saldana (1178), Pass (1194)
DaddyTorgo Jail - 3 - Autumn (1087), Abe (1112), Telle (1126)


Day 4 Final Vote Count:

KWhit Lynch - 14 - Lathum (1258), Pass (1321), Autumn (1323), Lerriuqs (1326), SnDvls (1328), Path (1338), CR (1342), USFL (1350), Saldana (1359), Jackal (1377), Telle (1382), Barkeep (1397), MartinD (1435), RendeR (1440)

Lathum Lynch - 1- KWhit (1380)

Day 5 Final Vote Count:

Lathum Lynch - 11 - Jackal (1510), Autumn (1514), USFL (1526), BK (1546), MartinD (1602), Path (1608), Abe (1614), Saldana (1649), RendeR (1676), Leriuqs (1682), CR (1685),

Lathun Jail - 1 - SnDvls (1565),

Barkeep49 Jail - 1 - Pass (1607)

Did Not Vote: Lathum



Day 6 Final Vote Count:

Saldana Lynch - 11 - USFL (1755), Abe (1756), CR (1757), Lerriuqs (1758), Jackal (1759), Autumn (1761), SnDvls (1762), MartinD (1763), RendeR (1767), BK (1768), Path (1772)

Failed to Vote: Saldana


Day 7 Final Vote Count:

Barkeep Lynch - 6 - SnDvls (1842), MartinD (1866), USFLTecmo (1867), Path12 (1883), Autumn (1900), Lerriuqs (1921)

USFLTecmo Lynch - 4 - RendeR (1874), Abe Sargent (1882), The Jackal (1895), Barkeep (1899)



my do not trust list

RendeR
USFL
Lerriuqs
.

Thanks for that update - but why do you trust Jackal and Martin?

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by lerriuqs

Thanks for that update - but why do you trust Jackal and Martin?

not that I trust them per say, but more than the 3 I listed...voting, vibe etc.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by path12

I actually had a second rant written up about those who feel that all they need to do is show up and post once or twice a day, because that pisses me off just as much.

Then I decided that I didn't need to spread my foul mood all over the thread.

I agree. There are certainly times when you can only pop in once or twice a day, but if you commit to one of these games, posting 1-3 times a day makes things less fun for all.

[The Jackal]

Bah, just finished catching up. FWIW I don't know if USFL is our best bet tomorrow but I'm not against it. Let me work up my "trust list" here.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

my do not trust list

RendeR
USFL
Lerriuqs
.

Why do you distrust me? Just curious. I've been trying to sort through things whenever I've been on. I've been trying to convince everyone of the smartest plays all along. Not sure what more I can offer?

[The Jackal]

From most trusted to least trusted:

Abe
Autumn
Path

RendeR
USFL
lerriuqs
SND
martin

I put the space in there on purpose, because I have very little to go on with that bottom list. That order is based on pure feeling, at the moment, full of scotch.

I'm quite skeptical of Martin because I haven't played with him much, and I know he's been quiet most of the time, -and- I know most people have been quiet in this game, but I barely recall hearing from him. SND also .. CR gave him a gut trust, but I don't take much from that, just because he was the seer doesn't mean he had a good read on everyone.

Lerriuqs has made some posts that pinged me, though I know at least one of them he said was a ploy to trick wolves. Not sure what to take from that.

USFL and RendeR I really have no read on.

Hopefully the WK hits on a block tonight or something else beneficial happens for us, because it's starting to look dire..

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by lerriuqs

Bah...though I didn't see Abe here - a no lynch was worse...

If you honestly thought I wouldn't have taken care of that, you are silly.

[MartinD]

I've previously posted in the thread that, while I'm a villager, my role could potentially be helpful for the wolves. That is still true, but only holds if I get targeted by the wolves in a night phase.

The wolves have a couple of easy options to move them closer to winning the game at this point - just night-kill one of the guys in the circle of trust. Going after me might seem to be riskier on the surface, but is likely to be more beneficial to the wolves - I just don't think that they have the guts.

Well, wolves? What are you waiting for?

[Autumn]

Well, a disappointing lynch but at least we got some interesting voting history to go off of. I didn't think I had tied it with my vote, last count I was looking at said I made it within one. But I wanted to keep it close to see what people would do.

[Autumn]

We were guessing we were 8-2 or 7-3 before this lynch, right? So we're down to 7-2 or 6-3. If the Dark One is back those wolves contain at least one brutal (I sure hope Dubb didn't make another wolf brutal as well). If the kill tonight is blocked we're in not horrible shape. If they get a kill tonight though they make it 6-2 or 5-3, which is a tough spot to be in without a good voting record.

I wonder if we shouldn't be jailling people now and stretching the game out. Without a seer Abe is our last chance at any scans and we need some luck. We also can't afford to lynch villagers, especially not if the Dark One is back and we have a brutal still to take out.

[dubb93]

Processing

[dubb93]

Night once again gives way to day in Metou and you rush out the door to grab your morning paper. You look down at the headline and are saddened to read:

Fall of the Order

You read on:

The last living member of an elite order of knights has been slain. The White Knight was found dead last night after an obvious struggle............

You can't help but wonder who could have possibly done such a thing? Who could possibly kill a knight such as The White Knight?

Autumn was The White Knight

The White Knight has a 100% chance to block a kill attempt done by a follower of The Dark One although he is unable to learn the identity of one if he blocks a night kill attempt. If The White Knight guards the same target The Dark One is attempting to kill The White Knight will find himself unable to stop the attack and the victim will be killed while The White Knight will survive.

The Order of Righteousness -

You are the bodyguards. You may not send the same character to guard on consecutive nights and may not guard the same character on consecutive nights. May choose to guard the prison rather than a player. Lord Righteous has a 0% chance to ID any followers even on a successful prison raid block. If the prison is guarded there is a 100% chance the raid by The Dark One's followers will fail. May not guard the prison on consecutive nights. May protect players that are in prison, however, if the prison is raided on that night you will not block a prison raid only a night kill attempt on that player. You have PM rights.

Night 7 has ended. Day 8 has started. Day 8 ends 11p est Wednesday.

1. Barkeep49 - Lynched Day 7, Vanilla Villager
2. lerriuqs
3. USFLTechmo
4. Abe - Elected King Day 6
5. MartinD
6. hoopsguy - Vanilla Villager, Killed Night 1
7. Passacaglia - Elected King Day 3, Killed Night 5, Arbitro
8. Telle - Vanilla Villager, Killed Night 4
9. The Jackal
10. Danny - Lord Righteous, Killed Night 2
11. Autumn - Killed Night 7, The White Knight
12. Lathum - Lynched Day 5, Follower of The Dark One
13. SnDvls
14. RendeR
15. Chief Rum - Killed Night 6, Crystal Oculo
16. saldana - Lynched Day 6, Vanilla Villager
17. DaddyTorgo - Diffama Fabula - Killed Night 3
18. Tyrith - The Dark One, Duked Day 2 by Schmidty
19. path12
20. KWhit - Lynched Day 4, Vanilla Villager
21. Schmidty - Elected King Day 1, Killed Day 2 by Tyrith, Vanilla Villager

[Autumn]

Ah, parting is such sweet sorrow. Good luck guys.

[Abe Sargent]

Damn. Thanks Autumn.

[USFLTecmo]

Abe and squirrel are about as trusted as I can get right now. Squirrel doesn't make that move as a wolf, IMO, because it puts the target squarely on him. I know I'm a villager, and BK was one too, and squirrel would know that if he was a wolf, and not made a move either way, as a no lynch benefits the wolves as well. Thus, I have nearly complete trust in him, not QUITE Abe-level, but close.

The rest of us, well, you've got me. Who's got a thought?

[USFLTecmo]

Going to be quiet for the next little while, writing up the championship game in the league I run before posting it. I'll poke my head in periodically, though.

[path12]

Originally Posted by USFLTecmo

Abe and squirrel are about as trusted as I can get right now. Squirrel doesn't make that move as a wolf, IMO, because it puts the target squarely on him. I know I'm a villager, and BK was one too, and squirrel would know that if he was a wolf, and not made a move either way, as a no lynch benefits the wolves as well. Thus, I have nearly complete trust in him, not QUITE Abe-level, but close.

The rest of us, well, you've got me. Who's got a thought?

While I appreciate your assertion of being a villager, the only way we get a real read on squirrel is to find out what you are for sure.

What I'm pondering currently is the jail idea that Autumn floated before his untimely death.

[Abe Sargent]

path is a villager as scanned by CR.

[RendeR]

My own list looks something like this:

Abe and Path and myself (yes I know the commentary on naming one's self)

no read at all: Jackal and Martin

suspect: Squirrel, SnDvls and Techmo

SnDvls basically because I know I'm good and he's tried to push suspicion at me a couple times now.

Squirrel and techmo I don't know playstyles for that well, but both were quiet early and only got more vocal as there weren't many folks left (please note this is just a perception, I've been really busy during this game and will gladly admit I could be wrong)

[USFLTecmo]

Vote lynch MartinD

Let's see what happens from here.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by RendeR

SnDvls basically because I know I'm good and he's tried to push suspicion at me a couple times now.

There's a big leap.

I put your name on my do not trust list yesterday...when else have I mentioned your name?

[SnDvls]

dola - I think the pushing someone's name here is reversed as you've pushed my name several times.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

path is a villager as scanned by CR.

And a damn poor one judging from my play this game.

[path12]

Jail vs. lynch. I'm seriously considering that a 20% chance of scan is better than no roles left but a cultist and wolves at this point.

Discuss.

[USFLTecmo]

No BG's are left, so the wolves can keep killing the king to their heart's content. Putting someone in jail is akin to killing them, but without finding their role. It's not the smart play right now.

[Abe Sargent]

This game is going sloowly.

[MartinD]

Originally Posted by USFLTecmo

Vote lynch MartinD

Let's see what happens from here.

I'd be interested to find out the thinking behind this vote...

There's no way for me to prove this short of getting myself lynched or night-killed, but I'm a villager - one with the ability to kill off another player when I get killed, yes, but still a villager. (It probably doesn't come as much of a surprise that USFLTecmo is fairly high on my list when I send in my conditional kill order for Day 8...)

[MartinD]

Originally Posted by path12

Jail vs. lynch. I'm seriously considering that a 20% chance of scan is better than no roles left but a cultist and wolves at this point.

Discuss.

If we go for a lynch, we lose a player with no chance of getting them back. We have no bodyguard, so the wolves will be able to kill off one villager each day (unless they find the cultist, of course).

If we go with the jail option, we lose a player from the point of view of the villagers:wolves ratio, but that player can potentially be brought back into play. We also get a 1 in 5 chance of a successful scan for each day that player is in jail. The wolves still get their night-kill each day, though, so the amount of time available is limited - with only a 20% chance of a successful scan per jailed person per day, the odds are against a successful scan, and even more against finding a wolf that way.

If I'm being honest, I think that it's a bit late in the game for jailing a player to be a viable option for giving us more information - while lynching carries its own risks (most notably that there's no way to reverse a lynch, unlike when someone is thrown in jail), I think that the village needs to take those risks in order to win the game.

Just my opinion, of course, but my vote today will be for a lynch.

[USFLTecmo]

Why, because I went a different direction in order to get some conversation started?

Even if it ends up hurting me later, now we have that piece of information out there, so that helps us out.

[MartinD]

My current impressions/thoughts on the state of the game:

Trust
Abe Sargent
path12

RendeR
The Jackal
SnDvls

USFLTecmo
lerriuqs
Distrust

(Gaps in the list are deliberate, and indicate a sizable difference in the level of trust.)

Reasoning: Abe and path were scanned as good by the seer - as we still have the cultist out there (to the best of our knowledge), this isn't a guarantee that they're good, but I think that I have to take the chance that these guys are definitely on the side of good at this point.

The move that lerriuqs pulled just before deadline yesterday looks very bad, as it consigned a villager to the lynch mob. It also doesn't reflect well on USFLTecmo - I think that we have to lynch one of these guys today - if one comes up wolf, there's a very good chance that the other will be a wolf too.

The guys in the middle are harder to judge (as there isn't all that much useful information available), but chances are that at least one of these guys must be a wolf (or the cultist).

[MartinD]

Originally Posted by USFLTecmo

Why, because I went a different direction in order to get some conversation started?

Even if it ends up hurting me later, now we have that piece of information out there, so that helps us out.

I wasn't complaining that you were picking on me - just wondering why you decided to go for me over one of the other guys.

[SnDvls]

vote lynch RendeR

I've only my gut to go on. I'm of the opinion that at this point in the game if we aren't getting a wolf lynched we're going to lose anyhow.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by path12

What I'm pondering currently is the jail idea that Autumn floated before his untimely death.

Which jail idea is that?

[The Jackal]

Just got around, sorry for my absence this morning/afternoon. I see that we still win if the wolves are in jail, but I'm not sure if that's beneficial to us.

We would eliminate the chance of lynching a villager, which we have a higher probability of doing, and be able to release that person so that they'd count to the ratio if they got a good scan or new info got released. Hrm.

Martin - I'm pretty sure if I am going to vote to lynch it's going to be on you unless you come clean about what kind of ability you have. If it's a one-shot thing and it'd probably benefit the wolves, why would it hurt to tell us what it is? I can understand not saying anything if you want to keep your role hidden from the wolves, but we're out of bodyguards and our seer, so if there's anyway to get info out there it needs to happen soon.

[The Jackal]

So best case we're at 6-2. Other cases are we're 6-2 with a cultist, or 5-3. If it's 5-3 and we lynch the wrong person or even put the wrong person in jail, the game could end tonight.

I haven't gotten an endgame vibe off of anyone, so I think it's more likely we're looking at 6-2, but we should definitely be coordinating on this vote. Abe - what are you thinking?

[MartinD]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Which jail idea is that?

I suspect that it's this:

Originally Posted by Autumn

I wonder if we shouldn't be jailling people now and stretching the game out. Without a seer Abe is our last chance at any scans and we need some luck. We also can't afford to lynch villagers, especially not if the Dark One is back and we have a brutal still to take out.

I can see the thinking behind this, but don't think that it's the village's best chance of winning the game - the king only has a 20% chance of a successful scan, and I feel that we don't have enough time left to have a reasonable chance of getting even one scan from this. (Of course, we could get lucky and get a successful scan at the first time of asking, but we can't rely on that.)

One other thought about this - if I understand the rules correctly, we cannot guard the prison (as there are no members of the Order of Righteousness remaining), so any attack on the prison by the wolves will be successful.

[The Jackal]

And I'm more than willing to listen to the merits of a jailing plan if you want to float it out there, path. But it needs to make sense.

[The Jackal]

Thanks for re-posting that, Martin. I'm skeptical that jailing people is going to stretch out the game.

[MartinD]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Martin - I'm pretty sure if I am going to vote to lynch it's going to be on you unless you come clean about what kind of ability you have. If it's a one-shot thing and it'd probably benefit the wolves, why would it hurt to tell us what it is? I can understand not saying anything if you want to keep your role hidden from the wolves, but we're out of bodyguards and our seer, so if there's anyway to get info out there it needs to happen soon.

See my post above - my role is effectively 'brutal villager', in that I can select a player to kill off if I am lynched or night-killed.

As I said above, there's no way I can prove that I'm being honest about this short of getting myself killed, so you need to decide if I'm telling the truth on this one.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by MartinD

See my post above - my role is effectively 'brutal villager', in that I can select a player to kill off if I am lynched or night-killed.

As I said above, there's no way I can prove that I'm being honest about this short of getting myself killed, so you need to decide if I'm telling the truth on this one.

Wow, don't know how I missed that, my bad.

[USFLTecmo]

I'm going to buy Martin's story for now. If it's true, we're that much closer to losing if he goes and knocks me off.

Unvote Lynch MartinD
Vote Lynch RendeR

If SnDvls is voting RendeR, there's a good chance that one's a wolf and one isn't, based on my line of thinking that squirrel is also good, which is based on the line of thinking that I'm good, which no one seems to believe, nor have I really been able to prove it.

[MartinD]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Wow, don't know how I missed that, my bad.

No worries - it's not easy to pick up every little point on a first read through the thread.

[path12]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

And I'm more than willing to listen to the merits of a jailing plan if you want to float it out there, path. But it needs to make sense.

Well, after arguing for lynches for practically the whole damn game the only reason I have now is due to my concerns that if there are three wolves we could be down to it tomorrow.

If there are only two then add a day to that, but we've also got to face the fact now that with Autumn gone it's likely that Abe and I will be killed in the next couple days, so trusted folks are gonna be hard to find...

So I don't have any great scheme where jailing is the end-all be-all but wanted to at least see what others thought.

As for tonight, I won't be around near deadline. I think the target needs to be either USFL or squirrel, since anyone else is a hunch and at least this gives us a bit of clarity into last nights vote, which is the only real close one we have with a lynch on the line.

[The Jackal]

I'm not sure how I feel about that role reveal. It almost seems like something the brutal wolf would say, but I suppose I could see it in the game for balancing. I'll let some discussion go on before I make any decisions, but I don't know how I feel about following USFL and SND on a vote choice.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

vote lynch RendeR

I've only my gut to go on. I'm of the opinion that at this point in the game if we aren't getting a wolf lynched we're going to lose anyhow.

A- I've mentioned you once, today, the rest of the game I haven't even considered you other than to respond to things others have said.

B- Your gut has led you...where? thus far in the game?

C- I'd rather not bring it up but since I'm getting votes I'd like to remind folks that I was at least semi-trusted by CR who tends to read my play entirely too well for my own liking. Beyond that all i can say is that I'm a vanilla villager. its not like I can whip up some fake reveal at this point, all the real roles are dead.

D- you've come out in posts at least twice now stating that you dislike something about how I'm playing or that I've been quieter than normal and not causing problems. I tried to clarify the attitude change to everyone early on in the game but apparently not everyone reads around here. I've grown tired of being the angry bear and I've stepped down my overall play style to help avoid unnecessary blow ups like I've had inthe past.

if you don;t like that so fucking BE IT.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

So best case we're at 6-2. Other cases are we're 6-2 with a cultist, or 5-3. If it's 5-3 and we lynch the wrong person or even put the wrong person in jail, the game could end tonight.

I haven't gotten an endgame vibe off of anyone, so I think it's more likely we're looking at 6-2, but we should definitely be coordinating on this vote. Abe - what are you thinking?

I think finding out about USFL gives us info about lerriuqs

[path12]

I'll check again before I'm out of here but:

VOTE LYNCH LERRIUQS

For the reasons stated above.

[Abe Sargent]

I don;t really have a wolf vibe from RendeR but I am getting a low key vibe from him and I have to wonder why.

[MartinD]

I'll be done for the night after this, so had best post my vote.

It's a pretty simple choice from my point of view - I believe that we need to lynch either lerriuqs or USFLTecmo at this point, because of lerriuqs' late vote switch to save USFLTecmo over a villager yesterday. I suspect that if one turns out to be a wolf, the other will also be a wolf.

VOTE USFLTECMO LYNCH