10-30-2006, 02:47 PM | #2001 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2003
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Quote:
If you really aren't a zombie, moving your vote would have been a good move to earn you some trust. But since you're zombie, you couldn't move your vote because it meant losing the infector. You'll live for another night. They're going to lynch me today instead. |
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10-30-2006, 02:52 PM | #2002 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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DC, it isn't just that you didn't move the vote, when it turned out the other guy was a Zombie. It is the lack of any information from Anxiety's play, which more or less continued with you while you were catching up. That is one of the things that often happens when you join a game in the middle - it is rare to be taking over for a cool, trusted role. So in addition to catching up with 1,700 posts you are in a position where you have to defend the play (or lack thereof) of the guy before you.
Is that cool, from where you sit? Probably not. But the rest of us trying to get a Zombie today have to act off the available information. I didn't trust Anxiety much, which is why I put the question to you when I did last night. You didn't respond at all to it. I have to evaluate that information and that is what I'm doing. As it stands right now, my vote is on Spleen. But if you are able to point out compelling reasons why you are STARS that would help make sure it doesn't head back in your direction later. |
10-30-2006, 02:56 PM | #2003 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2003
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I have a lot to say strategically, but I can't say too much because it will help the Umbrella and zombie factions.
If you are STARS, you want to keep me around. |
10-30-2006, 02:58 PM | #2004 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Syracuse, NY
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Well I'm leaving for work so here's the votes so far with 7 hours to go:
(1) Fouts - SnDvls (1960) (1) dodgerchick - spleen (1964) (1) spleen - hoopsguy (1997) |
10-30-2006, 03:02 PM | #2005 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Spleen, do I need to pull out your voting record again to demonstrate that you are not the Police Chief and that you would be an amazingly bad Internal Affairs candidate?
Final Votes: Spleen - Bullet (3rd), Alan (1st), Cronin (5th), Glen (2nd) Before settling on Glen (self-preservation vote) you had votes on LSG and SnDvls. If you want to fake role reveal, come out and claim a role - take your best shot. But don't act like you are the Police Chief after your performances on Days 2 and 3 with final votes on Alan and Cronin. |
10-30-2006, 03:10 PM | #2006 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2003
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Quote:
I'm not trying to fake role reveal. If I was going to try something like that, it would have been last night. What I have to say is all from a strategic point of view. I want to make sure that STARS is looking at the game the same way I am. |
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10-30-2006, 03:13 PM | #2007 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2003
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hoops, I know my voting record is extremely poor. As I said last night, I don't have a role that will gain me any information. So, I have to go along with the opinion of others in most cases.
For the record, Lathum was lynched last Thursday night. I was bowling when the vote swung toward him. I didn't have the opportunity to change my vote. I definitely would have voted for him if I was around when things happened. I'll be in the same boat again today. I will be out bowling after 7:30. |
10-30-2006, 03:21 PM | #2008 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Appleton, WI
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Quote:
You definitely would have voted for him? You knew he was bad when just over half of the people in the game only suspected? That is a bold statement. As it is, if you are a zombie, voting for him would have fit your strategy. |
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10-30-2006, 03:23 PM | #2009 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Spleen, if you are STARS then you should post your strategy. It is entirely possible that we will make a mistake today. Both Umbrella and the Zombies will be trying to make sure that we do make a mistake to enhance their chances of winning.
So, if you have some strategic thoughts that you think we should know, I would encourage you to post them before your game ends. As far as having a role that doesn't get information, it does leave you in a position of only being able to evaluate posts rather than having your own private stash of information that allows you to make better reads. But that does not mean that you have to go along with the opinion of others. In fact, I think having a plain villager role is a blast in these games because the level of risk is lower. You are not worried about burning a special role. If you go down instead of a special role, it is not as big a loss for the team. I take those games as an invitation to be even more aggressive with my analysis, rather than more passive. OK, time to step off the soapbox ... |
10-30-2006, 03:24 PM | #2010 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2003
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Quote:
And it is within your best interest to slander me because you are Umbrella. So, getting my fellow STARS voting aginst me works in your favor. |
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10-30-2006, 03:26 PM | #2011 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2003
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Quote:
I will post my thoughts before I leave later. I need to formulate some things. The problem is going to be giving up too much information to Umbrella and zombie. What I say could very much help them win. So, I don't know if it is a good idea. Let me do a little more research. |
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10-30-2006, 03:27 PM | #2012 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: South Bend, IN
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Right now, we CANNOT afford to lynch another STARS. In fact, I suspect it may be essential for us to vote as a bloc. We can count on Umbrella to do so, as long as it's in their interest.
__________________
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10-30-2006, 03:32 PM | #2013 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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MrW, I think we may find ourselves in that position tomorrow. When I've run the numbers today, I've anticipated that we have at least one more day even with a bad lynch and a worst-case evening. Only way that does not add up is if there are still four Umbrella remaining.
Also, the Zombies can feel free to attack an Umbrella one of these evenings - seriously, every single kill has been STARS and it has been pretty annoying. |
10-30-2006, 03:33 PM | #2014 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Appleton, WI
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Quote:
At this point an Umbrella or a zombie win is pretty much out the window. We've probably got one zombie left to take out. With 9 people in the game, there is no way the zombies get a 1:1 ratio anymore. I'm also pretty confident we can take out the one zombie before all of the remaining STARS are taken out. There really isn't much helpful info that can be given to anyone...certainly not enough to help them win. |
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10-30-2006, 03:33 PM | #2015 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2003
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hoops, if you've looked at the numbers, then you might be seeing the same thing I am.
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10-30-2006, 03:33 PM | #2016 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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If we are truly worried about the four Umbrella strategy then we could move our votes over to SnDvls. But the risk there is if there are still two zombies left then they have a chance for multiple kills this evening.
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10-30-2006, 03:39 PM | #2017 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2003
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Quote:
At some point we need to think about lynching them. If the way I see the rest of the folks is true, the Umbrella/zombie out number STARS. On the same token, the zombies need to take out Umbrella to win as well. I don't think there is anyway for STARS to avoid a lynching loss today. |
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10-30-2006, 03:43 PM | #2018 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2003
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I want to make this public record before I possibly get lynched tonight.
Right now, I think there are 4 STARS left: spleen, hoops, LSG and Mr. W. I think there are 3 Umbrella left: Fouts, SnDvls, BrianD 2 zombies left: Chief Rum and Dodgerchick |
10-30-2006, 03:47 PM | #2019 | |
Unregistered
Join Date: May 2004
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Quote:
Hoops, I admire your analytical skills, but it baffles me that you haven't looked through yesterday's posts and noticed that I was occupied most of the night with trying to catch up and tending to RL: Post 1593 (my vote on Alan, while still catching up) Post 1745 (occupied with the kids, vote still on Alan) Post 1746 (I quoted your post based on your analysis of spleen's votes and voted for him) Post 1755 (you ask me to switch votes) Post 1861 at 10:29 central time (still tending to RL after the deadline) So based on what you're saying about Anxiety's play vs. my play, you're saying that he didn't provide information. Alright, I get that. But what would have happened if I was on my keyboard and went along with you? Would I be trusted then? Maybe, maybe not. I mean seriously, if I went along with your vote and Glen ended up being good, I would have set myself up pretty good now wouldn't I... being that no one has vouched for me. But I went with the information that made the most sense for me at the time... had I had information against Glen, hell yeah I would have voted for him. |
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10-30-2006, 03:48 PM | #2020 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2003
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hoops, do you think there could possibly be 5 STARS left?
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10-30-2006, 03:50 PM | #2021 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2003
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Quote:
If you're not zombie, then what are you? |
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10-30-2006, 03:51 PM | #2022 | |
College Starter
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: California
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Quote:
What? You left me hanging in the wind??? Grrr. |
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10-30-2006, 03:55 PM | #2023 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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I'm not sure I agree with the makeup of the teams, but I do agree that a bad lynch could leave the Zombies controlling our fate with their night kill.
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10-30-2006, 03:58 PM | #2024 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Fouts, it worked And now I can protect you tonight. Of course, the Zombies also know that I'm dead meat tonight if they decide to come after me. Which is part of why I was curious about the order of night actions tonight.
Spleen, I think it is entirely possible that we have five STARS left. But I don't know that I would bet on it. |
10-30-2006, 04:01 PM | #2025 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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DC, if you had moved then you would be more trusted in my eyes today.
If Glen had shown up as STARS and you had stayed then you would have been more trusted in my eyes today. Basically, I didn't have a high level of trust for either you or BrianD last night. I now have a higher level of trust that Brian is not a Zombie, while being more suspicious that you are Zombie. Last night I took a high risk play hoping to get information, one way or the other. I'm glad it got us a Zombie, but I would have had more information for today no matter which way it turned out. |
10-30-2006, 04:10 PM | #2026 | |
College Starter
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: California
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Quote:
Agreed. Put yourself out there to protect the roled players. Who cares if a vanilla role goes down? |
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10-30-2006, 04:13 PM | #2027 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Quote:
Exhibits A and B of this behavior - Fouts (school teacher) and Spleen (mortician) last game. You guys were all over me for days last game. Neither of you felt like you had anything to lose with your roles, so you could feel free to make my Cowboy existence miserable. |
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10-30-2006, 04:15 PM | #2028 |
College Starter
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: California
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If we are worried about the Umbrella, we can take out SnDvls. I'd love to see how the votes stack up in that one.
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10-30-2006, 04:17 PM | #2029 |
College Starter
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: California
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What do you think about stacking up against SnDvls? I am almost sure there is one zombie left.
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10-30-2006, 04:18 PM | #2030 |
College Starter
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: California
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Oh, and before I forget. Nice shot Mr. W!
My analysis on Path was right on. His first vote on Lathum should have gotten him killed by the zombies. |
10-30-2006, 04:22 PM | #2031 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Appleton, WI
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Guys, I have to take off to class. I'm going to cast my vote now on who I think the last zombie is. Hopefully I'll be back later tonight before the lynch to see what happened in the last few hours.
Vote Spleen |
10-30-2006, 04:22 PM | #2032 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Fouts, who did you scope out last night?
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10-30-2006, 04:25 PM | #2033 |
College Starter
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: California
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10-30-2006, 04:28 PM | #2034 |
College Starter
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: California
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Here is my known list (and I will assume none of my cleared have been converted):
STARS - LSG, Hoops, Mr.W., Fouts Umbrella - SnDvls Left: DC, Chief Rum, Spleen, BrianD (in order of suspected zombie) |
10-30-2006, 04:28 PM | #2035 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Cool, just wanted to make sure that I was recalling correctly - thought you had said MrW before the morning results went up but didn't remember anything after that.
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10-30-2006, 04:31 PM | #2036 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Jul 2001
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Kinda disappointed it's so slow in here today
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10-30-2006, 04:31 PM | #2037 |
College Starter
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: California
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My best guess is that it is 5-3-1 (STARS, Umbrella, Zombie). I am concerned about a STARS lynch, followed by a STARS death. It would then be 3-3-1 and we'd be in trouble.
Now might be a good time to take out a known Umbrella to avoid a STARS lynch. |
10-30-2006, 04:32 PM | #2038 |
College Starter
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: California
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10-30-2006, 04:34 PM | #2039 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Since Umbrella only wins if we are all taken out I think it makes sense to continue pursuing zombies today.
Even if we were in a 4-4-1 scenario, Umbrella does not have a night action. If we are in a 4-3-2 scenario, a bad lynch and the Zombies killing two STARS puts us really under the gun but it is damaging to the Zombies as well because the Umbrella people know each other and would be able to control the votes. So I don't think it makes any sense to go after SnDvls this afternoon - let the Zombies take him out at night if they are trying to win the game. I could be talked into moving my vote to Dodgerchick if someone has a strong vibe for her instead of Spleen. I suppose I could move to Chief Rum as well, although it would take a more persuasive argument. |
10-30-2006, 04:36 PM | #2040 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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NM, just realized something dumb in the above post. 4-4-1 and a bad lynch = Umbrella controlling the vote tomorrow if the Zombies don't get Umbrella with their night action.
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10-30-2006, 04:38 PM | #2041 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Fouts, any strong reason to believe there are five STARS instead of four?
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10-30-2006, 04:38 PM | #2042 |
College Starter
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: California
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I'm not sure about spleen. He's been acting weird today, but that might be normal for him. I have absolutely no information on Anxiety/DC. You can't get much more UtR than Anxiety/DC.
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10-30-2006, 04:41 PM | #2043 |
College Starter
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: California
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10-30-2006, 04:42 PM | #2044 |
College Starter
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: California
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10-30-2006, 04:45 PM | #2045 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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OK, I think this may extend the game an extra day in the long run, but it seems like the safe play is to evict an Umbrella today.
If someone has a clear path to a Zombie I would love to hear it between now and the deadline. UNVOTE SPLEEN VOTE SNDVLS |
10-30-2006, 04:45 PM | #2046 |
College Starter
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: California
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I hope there are 5 STARS left, because if there are 4 Umbrella + 1 Zombie, I might get lynched.
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10-30-2006, 04:46 PM | #2047 |
College Starter
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: California
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I think we need to knock off an Umbrella member, plus I want to see how people vote in this one. It will tell us alot about factions.
vote SnDvls |
10-30-2006, 05:31 PM | #2048 |
College Starter
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Little Rock, AR
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I dont understand why we need to knock off umbrella? I think we need to hit a zombie....
vote dodgerchick |
10-30-2006, 05:38 PM | #2049 | |
College Starter
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: California
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Quote:
I guess it depends on where you think we are. The Umbrella just need to get control of the voting. Once they do, we are done. If it is 5-3-1 right now and we miss and lynch a STARS, then the zombies kill a STARS, then it is 3-3-1 and we've lost control of the lynch. I think the remaining zombie should be worried about an Umbrella win. Once the Umbrella get control of the vote, there will be no stopping them. LSG, what are your thoughts on that? |
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10-30-2006, 05:43 PM | #2050 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2003
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If Fouts can be trusted that he is STARS, then we have 5 STARS left. If there is 5 STARS left, then the right move is to lynch Dodgerchick.
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