POTUS 2024 - Harris vs Trump - General Election Discussion

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I think he for sure would have. I think it is why Biden waited until after to drop out.

Well that and between this and the Crowdstrike thing, everyone's completely forgotten about the RNC convention. Trump must be fuming.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

To my mind, why he left is not relevant.

The delegates choosing a candidate that nobody voted for as their presidential candidate is what is undemocratic.

So if he had a debilitating stroke you would feel the same way? Primary voters chose the ticket knowing Harris was the backup to a very frail old man and they process is playing out.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Well that and between this and the Crowdstrike thing, everyone's completely forgotten about the RNC convention. Trump must be fuming.

Based off social media the entire party is losing their collective shit. I feel bad for any ketchup bottles.

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Tactically, the only thing that makes sense is they knew he was behind and needed time to catch up, so they hoped an early debate would give him some momentum. But if they saw him day-to-day, it's hard to believe they thought that would work.

I think the simplest explanation is that Trump had been harping on the idea of debates and suggesting that Joe was too infirm to debate and would never agree, and they assumed he would ride that for months unless they nipped it in the budr ASAP and possibly reversed the narrative with a strong showing.

I also think it's possible/likely that all the different teams involved might not have had the same level of knowledge about Joe's condition & weren't necessarily strategizing with those considerations.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Based off social media the entire party is losing their collective shit. I feel bad for any ketchup bottles.

You have a shitty candidate if you fear someone thrown into the race 2 months before early voting starts.

[Lathum]

They know they have a shitty candidate.

Question for the collective FOFC. What percentage of the gop establishment actually buys into the maga bullshit? I’m not talking about Cletus from middle Alabama. I’m talking about lawmakers, media, etc.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Lathum

They know they have a shitty candidate.

Question for the collective FOFC. What percentage of the gop establishment actually buys into the maga bullshit? I’m not talking about Cletus from middle Alabama. I’m talking about lawmakers, media, etc.

Depends on how you see buying in. If you mean parroting the the bullshit, they'll all fall in line. If you mean actually believing the bullshit then very few from the establishment. Most know Trump is full of shit and toxic but they fall in line because they believe he gets results and they like job security.

[Atocep]

The secret service director resigning was a given after yesterday's disaster of a hearing.

[Ghost Econ]

Biden giving a speech Wednesday night. If his people and the DNC are smart, it will be self deprecating, along the lines of not realizing himself he was slipping, that he is doing what's best for the country, and mention the rigors of the job for someone in their 80s with strong hints about Trump's age without directly saying it. Something about how his own temperament when he came into office and how that's changed, subtly comparing it to Trump being a mental disaster. And obviously talk up Kamala.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Depends on how you see buying in. If you mean parroting the the bullshit, they'll all fall in line. If you mean actually believing the bullshit then very few from the establishment. Most know Trump is full of shit and toxic but they fall in line because they believe he gets results and they like job security.

I mean actually believing. Not using him as their useful idiot.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Lathum

They know they have a shitty candidate.

Question for the collective FOFC. What percentage of the gop establishment actually buys into the maga bullshit? I’m not talking about Cletus from middle Alabama. I’m talking about lawmakers, media, etc.

They will buy in and continue to buy in as long as there is power in it. Once the power is weakened, it will wither away and the collective lawmaker support for it. To answer your question, as long as it's convenient. Only 10% are true believers.

[albionmoonlight]

Thought about Roy Cooper as VP choice.

He's 67.

So if Harris chooses him, that's more acceptable to all of the Dems who see themselves as possible next-in-line. If she picks, say, Whitmer, then that puts Whitmer in the drivers seat in 2028 or 2032. If she picks Cooper, then he assumedly won't run for pres, which makes it open for the rest of them

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Ghost Econ

Biden giving a speech Wednesday night. If his people and the DNC are smart, it will be self deprecating, along the lines of not realizing himself he was slipping, that he is doing what's best for the country, and mention the rigors of the job for someone in their 80s with strong hints about Trump's age without directly saying it. Something about how his own temperament when he came into office and how that's changed, subtly comparing it to Trump being a mental disaster. And obviously talk up Kamala.

I suspect ratings will be through the roof. A real chance for Biden to materially affect the race.

[Ghost Econ]

If Not Like Us is not Kamala Harris's campaign song, then they need to fire whoever runs her campaign.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Ghost Econ

If Not Like Us is not Kamala Harris's campaign song, then they need to fire whoever runs her campaign.

Looks like it's going to be Beyonce's 'Freedom'.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Atocep

The secret service director resigning was a given after yesterday's disaster of a hearing.

I was surprised to look up that the Secret Service directory when Kennedy was shot stayed in power for another 10 years!

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Ghost Econ

Biden giving a speech Wednesday night. If his people and the DNC are smart, it will be self deprecating, along the lines of not realizing himself he was slipping, that he is doing what's best for the country, and mention the rigors of the job for someone in their 80s with strong hints about Trump's age without directly saying it. Something about how his own temperament when he came into office and how that's changed, subtly comparing it to Trump being a mental disaster. And obviously talk up Kamala.

He has to toe the line between "I can do this job" and "but also campaigning full time between now and November and thinking ahead 4 years, it was time to step aside." If he talks about how hard it is to be president when he's slipping mentally, he's begging for a 25th Amendment petition.

[bronconick]

I hope Joe Biden has given Lee Corso the courage to do the right thing.

[GrantDawg]

This sounds right. I have seen some polls today where Harris has jumped over Trump, but I don't know the quality. If she doesn't have a lead by mid-late August, she probably never will....

August will probably be a bad month for the Trump trade in markets — the DNC is August 19-22 and I’d assume there’s some sort of Dem polling peak in that August 25-28 window.

— Conor Sen (@conorsen) July 23, 2024

[Danny]

Itll be interesting. There is now the potential to actually capatalize on anything health related or cognitive with Trump that happens prior to the election. That was a nom issue before when youre own candidate is even older witj their own issues there.

[CrimsonFox]

I mean it's simple. Biden is not good at campaigning and doesn't seem to want to. Even four years ago he didn't seem to "get it". However he has shown he was a good president and good at getting things done. They should give him a diplomatic position in france or something to retire in.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Danny

Itll be interesting. There is now the potential to actually capatalize on anything health related or cognitive with Trump that happens prior to the election. That was a nom issue before when youre own candidate is even older witj their own issues there.

silly boy, republicans don't care about anything bad their candidates do.

[CrimsonFox]

It sure would be wild if the the GOP changed candidates too hahaha. It won't happen because they're cultists who like doing what a bully tells them to do. BUt it'd be fun
And then the Labor party swoops in!

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

PredictIt odds...

Shapiro .32
Beshear .27
Cooper .22
Kelly .15
Buttigieg .07
Whitmer .04
Pritzker .03
Walz .02

This sure has changed.

Kelly .42
Shapiro .28
Cooper .17
Beshear .10
Walz .06
Buttigieg .03
Pritzker .02
Whitmer .02

[cartman]

That was the perfect first campaign speech earlier from Harris.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

It sure would be wild if the the GOP changed candidates too hahaha. It won't happen because they're cultists who like doing what a bully tells them to do. BUt it'd be fun
And then the Labor party swoops in!

Trump had his chance to drop out pre-conviction.

Though since he's spending all of his time shitposting and playing golf anyway, it isn't like running for President is putting any sort of burden on him.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

This sure has changed.

Kelly .42
Shapiro .28
Cooper .17
Beshear .10
Walz .06
Buttigieg .03
Pritzker .02
Whitmer .02

The more I think about it, the more I think anyone but Mark Kelly would be a mistake. He not only puts Arizona back in play, but he quite possibly helps the Dems win the Senate race there. He just seems like the perfect pairing with Harris.

[Lathum]

Biden should throw Trump in jail right now for violating the Logan act. After all he’s immune anyway.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

I mean it's simple. Biden is not good at campaigning and doesn't seem to want to. Even four years ago he didn't seem to "get it". However he has shown he was a good president and good at getting things done. They should give him a diplomatic position in france or something to retire in.

He'll be seen as a bad President and his foreign policy as a disaster over time. I think the quicker the Dems can separate him and his policies from the party, the better off they are.

Originally Posted by cartman

That was the perfect first campaign speech earlier from Harris.

It was very good. It helps a lot when you have a candidate who can speak clearly and attack their opponent's weakness.

[RainMaker]

These are apparently the names that Kamala has requested be vetted for the VP spot. Pritzker camp said they received no request so maybe that's wrong.

Harris' campaign has requested vetting materials from potential VPs, including Cooper (NC), Kelly (AZ), Shapiro (PA), Whitmer (MI), Walz (MN) + Pritzker (IL), according to a person familiar. Beshear told CNN he hasn't been asked to submit info at this point.

— Ken Thomas (@KThomasDC) July 23, 2024

Kelly feels like the strongest but giving up that Arizona Senate seat hurts. They'd have to see numbers that show he would increase their chances considerably to be chosen in my opinion. I can't see Whitmer taking the spot, although maybe that's changed.

Out of this list, I'd probably go with Walz. Least amount of risk and a really good politician.

[Flasch186]

Damn that speech was rousing

The opposite of what Joe could do and the republicans now have to be backpedaling trying to figure out what to do now

This could literally be a blue wave now


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Danny]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

He'll be seen as a bad President and his foreign policy as a disaster over time. I think the quicker the Dems can separate him and his policies from the party, the better off they are.



It was very good. It helps a lot when you have a candidate who can speak clearly and attack their opponent's weakness.

I think a lot will ride on this election. If Kamala wins, I dont think he will be remembered for all that much of his actual presidency good or bad but in beating trump and then stepping aside to help beat him again.

[thesloppy]

The best nickname Trump could invent for Harrison was Lyin' Kamala. Sad. Low energy.

[thesloppy]

I also love that the GOP rank and file has to be explicitly told not to focus on Kamala's race. Good luck getting that herd of cats back into the bag.

[Kodos]

Go easy on the man. He’s old.

[RainMaker]

Polls starting to show a much more competitive race now. The one's released yesterday after Biden dropped out showed Harris polling 4 points better in swing states than Biden. This has the race tied.

BREAKING: New Yahoo/YouGov poll has Trump and Harris tied at 46% pic.twitter.com/11vpvR53fO

— The Spectator Index (@spectatorindex) July 23, 2024

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Out of this list, I'd probably go with Walz. Least amount of risk and a really good politician.

Walz is such a boring Tim Kaine-style pick. I think you ride the momentum and go with Kelly, Shapiro, or Whitmer. I'd prefer Beshear the most for reasons you've stated earlier, but I guess he's not being considered.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Kelly feels like the strongest but giving up that Arizona Senate seat hurts. They'd have to see numbers that show he would increase their chances considerably to be chosen in my opinion. I can't see Whitmer taking the spot, although maybe that's changed.

He would only have to resign if they won, and even then it would be a Democrat in the seat until a special election in 2026. If Governor Hobbs picks the right replacement, it wouldn't necessarily cost the Democrats the seat even then. Plus, having him on the ticket might help elect the Democrat that is running against Kari Lake this election. Gallego is leading right now, but it is a close race. Having Kelly on the ticket might make the difference. I think Kelly is a win-win.

[Kodos]

Time for a thread title change.

[GrantDawg]

Paging Dr. Edward. Surgery on the thread title, stat.

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[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Danny

I think a lot will ride on this election. If Kamala wins, I dont think he will be remembered for all that much of his actual presidency good or bad but in beating trump and then stepping aside to help beat him again.

I think he will be remembered for Gaza. Not right now, but in 5-10 years after a younger generation comes up and investigations have been done.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

I also love that the GOP rank and file has to be explicitly told not to focus on Kamala's race. Good luck getting that herd of cats back into the bag.

And Vance's wife goes full DEI hire on Kamala.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

He would only have to resign if they won, and even then it would be a Democrat in the seat until a special election in 2026. If Governor Hobbs picks the right replacement, it wouldn't necessarily cost the Democrats the seat even then. Plus, having him on the ticket might help elect the Democrat that is running against Kari Lake this election. Gallego is leading right now, but it is a close race. Having Kelly on the ticket might make the difference. I think Kelly is a win-win.

I'm just thinking long term. Arizona is a state that is swinging red and a guy like Kelly could keep that seat safe for the next 20 years. If Kelly makes it easier to win, you do it. But if you can get the same results with Walz or Cooper, I think that's a more strategic move.

Guessing they are running the numbers now and doing polls to see how much Kelly would move the needle.

[JPhillips]

I think the GOP has some political reaction when they are able to argue that an action discriminates against whites, but they get nowhere arguing that people of color are inherently inferior to whites.

But they just can't help themselves.

[JPhillips]

dola

On the one hand an old man like Trump getting an eagle is pretty impressive.

But on the other hand, how is a 210 yd hole a par 4?

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Walz is such a boring Tim Kaine-style pick. I think you ride the momentum and go with Kelly, Shapiro, or Whitmer. I'd prefer Beshear the most for reasons you've stated earlier, but I guess he's not being considered.

It was reported locally that Beshear stated he was asked to submit vetting information.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

But they just can't help themselves.

It's probably the biggest strength she has right now. They just can't help saying off-putting shit that doesn't sway a single voter. It comes across racist, misogynistic, and weird to suburban folks who ultimately decide these elections.

Beyond the race stuff, I saw people trying to call her out for not being a Mother. She is a stepmom, but that's not enough apparently. Just seems like a weird way to alienate every step parent in this country by insinuating they're bad.

They even threw out a line about how she's been collecting paychecks from the government for 20 years. Normally that's a good attack but one of those jobs was like the most popular job you can have in government (district attorney).

The best way to attack her would be to call out her being a toadie for big business and banks. But they can't really do that because that's sort of Trump's thing.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Walz is such a boring Tim Kaine-style pick. I think you ride the momentum and go with Kelly, Shapiro, or Whitmer. I'd prefer Beshear the most for reasons you've stated earlier, but I guess he's not being considered.

Walz is actually good at politics unlike Tim Kaine. Look at what he's accomplished with a tiny majority in Minnesota.

Shapiro has been a successful Governor too but he has way more risk (although maybe more upside too). I guess with VP I side with they probably won't help but could hurt.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Kodos

Time for a thread title change.

Shouldn’t we wait until it’s official official? Seems disrespectful to Joe who made a great, selfless (albeit, somewhat late) decision?

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

The more I think about it, the more I think anyone but Mark Kelly would be a mistake. He not only puts Arizona back in play, but he quite possibly helps the Dems win the Senate race there. He just seems like the perfect pairing with Harris.

Yep, he's fully the correct choice here. He fits a lot if needs and he's a national icon. Fully on board.