COVID-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (a non-political thread, see pg. 36 #1778)

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I total agree we have major disparities, but that is a totally different conversation.

As for assessing the worth of individual lives, isn't that what part of triage is and could start happening here?

I apologize for coming across abrasive last night, and I get that my stance is unpopular, but I think it is something that will potentially have to be addressed in the coming weeks. I don't think just throwing our hands up and saying generic lines about morality accomplishes anything more than making people feel good. It doesn't solve the problem.

As I understand it, the whole point of treatment protocols is so that doctors are not assessing the value of each individual life. They may make decisions on life expectancy or age, but doctors aren't going around saying these people are worth more than those people.

There was a heartbreaking Ted Koppel interview just this morning where a doctor was still obviously suffering trauma from having to follow similar protocols in Haiti ten years ago.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

As with a number of things that have pooped up in the last two weeks

You should get that checked out.

[JPhillips]

triple dola?

At the March 20 meeting of the Okeechobee County Commissioners, Commissioner Bryant Culpepper referenced a program he said he saw on One American News Network about the coronavirus.
“One of the things that was pointed out in this interview with one of the foremost doctors who has studied the coronavirus said that the nasal passages and the nasal membranes are the coolest part of the body. That’s why the virus tends to go there until it then becomes healthy enough to go into the lungs.

“This sound really goofy, and it did to me too, but it works,” he explained. “Once the temperature reaches 136 degrees Fahrenheit, the virus falls apart, it disintegrates.

“I said how would you get the temperature up to 136 degrees? The answer was you use a blow dryer. You hold a blow dryer up to your face and you inhale through your nose and it kills all the viruses in your nose.

“So that sounds like a really simplified way of doing things, but sometimes the cures for these diseases are very simple.

“Also, if you are worried about it going into your lungs, because that’s where it goes to turn into pneumonia, you can put a pan of water on the stove until it turns into steam and inhale it. It sounds too easy, but at this point, it’s worth trying,” he continued.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by earlier

I'm trying to stick with the position, right now, that we are amidst such uncertainty here, that we are all bound to say things that, in the fullness of time, will appear to be unwise or unfounded. And those things we have said or done will have been born of ignorance or misinformation, rather than deep defects in our humanity.

...

[whomario]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I'm struggling to think of one excuse why I would travel now. I guess the death of a very close loved one?

I suppose some are returning from trips, but I would think at this point most of those have cycled through already.

Wont a lot of those also be students wanting to return home (rather than be in.their room for months) or people that worked in different cities from where there Family stays ?

I personally know more tgan a dozen people like that who temporarily moved for a job or uni and are now returning to their Family (spouses/partners and kids) or to move back in with their parents for a while as their jobs have been put on hold or terminated or Unis have shut down. I imagine this happens a lot in the US as well and with greater distances.


Also, since it came up by Icy: Germany is indeed testing a lot more than other countries. Last estimate was about 25k a day capacity for analysis and rising. Not everybody that should gets tested, but a much larger percentage.
France for example just upped theirs from 2k - 2.5k ... I am fairly certain Italy and Spain haven't been able to test much out of hospitals (f.e known contacts) for a while now unfortunately and did not start at a high number to start with

And like i said before: Testing is crucial to identify patients early with a disease that on average needs just 4 days to go from first symptoms to needing hospitalisation and in Italy 8 days from first symptoms to death.
For most it does not happen, but if it goes bad it goes bad fast.

Analysis on Italy deaths: https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronav..._marzo_eng.pdf

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I'm struggling to think of one excuse why I would travel now. I guess the death of a very close loved one?

I suppose some are returning from trips, but I would think at this point most of those have cycled through already.

My 68 year old mom just had to fly yesterday. My sister (doctor) and brother in law (coroner) are working really long hours with schools and daycares closed and had no one to watch their kids for a week and she flew to where they lived to watch the kids. They are all smart people, all taking this seriously, worried about the serious risks they were all incurring, but in a bind without a better option. My sister, especially, knows she could have exposed my mom to it. My mom knows she's in a high risk group. They all know going to the airport and flying is an awful idea right now. They all took horrible risks to do this and we're hoping that in a month they won't be regretting it. But it was a bad situation without a better remedy.


(and before we play the "there are lots of people out there who could watch their kids" game, don't think they weren't doing that for 3 weeks prior and had no luck finding them in the very limited time they had to look; they finally found someone last week so my mom actually left a week before she was planning on doing it)

SI

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I just don't get it.

We've shut down schools across the country--so there is a sense of what a big deal this is.

But we are still allowing non-essential air travel?

I just don't get the priorities here.

Either it isn't a big deal, in which case we should be living our lives normally.

Or it is a big deal, in which case you shouldn't have 10,000 people in a security line at ATL.

We seem to be doing the worst of all worlds here. Massively disrupting schools and destroying small businesses but not actually containing the problem.

I hate to say it, but I think the issue is that politicians are merely doing something so they can say they did something.


As long as day care is allowed to remain open, it tells me that we're not they're more interested in political fallout than truly slowing the spread.


Yes, some people would still try to do in-home, but...


1. You put out a strong message saying "DON'T DO THAT" to underscore the seriousness of the situation.

2. Those that still ignore the request will have far fewer rugrats in the same building as a typical day care facility. The one owned by the folks I referenced in this thread who were out partying last weekend has over 100 kids in the building.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Edward64

What "collective rhetoric" or "absolutes" at a pep rally are you referring to?


I actually don't remember this thread, assume it happened after 9/11.

I would prefer not to delve into politics. I would offer to you this though.

Safety. Security. Service. Our highest priority is to protect the lives and interests of U.S. citizens overseas. We do this through routine and emergency services to Americans at our embassies and consulates around the world. We serve our fellow citizens during their most important moments – births, deaths, disasters, arrests, and medical emergencies.

That is from the Department of State's website. That seems absolute to me.

If sheltering in place is the best way to to protect the lives and interests of U.S. citizens overseas, by all means do that.But if that is not the case, I can understand why someone would expect the State Dept. to use the routine and emergency services to bring our fellow citizens home in this medical emergency. Especially when we have already shown a willingness to do so in another case.

UPDATED: Stranded women's football team in Honduras headed home

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

My 68 year old mom just had to fly yesterday. My sister (doctor) and brother in law (coroner) are working really long hours with schools and daycares closed and had no one to watch their kids for a week and she flew to where they lived to watch the kids. They are all smart people, all taking this seriously, worried about the serious risks they were all incurring, but in a bind without a better option. My sister, especially, knows she could have exposed my mom to it. My mom knows she's in a high risk group. They all know going to the airport and flying is an awful idea right now. They all took horrible risks to do this and we're hoping that in a month they won't be regretting it. But it was a bad situation without a better remedy.


(and before we play the "there are lots of people out there who could watch their kids" game, don't think they weren't doing that for 3 weeks prior and had no luck finding them in the very limited time they had to look; they finally found someone last week so my mom actually left a week before she was planning on doing it)

SI

That’s a tough one but makes perfect sense.

[QuikSand]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETrRUebX...name=4096x4096

(sorry, image posted too large for forum settings)

[RainMaker]

Are any of you seeing people wear masks in public?

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Are any of you seeing people wear masks in public?

I was at grocery store this morning and several people (employees and non-employees alike) were wearing masks.

I can also say the grocery store was out of Ramen, Slim-Jims and Chicken Tenders. What the hell is a bachelor suppose to live off of!?

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETrRUebX...name=4096x4096

(sorry, image posted too large for forum settings)

Has anyone seen communication from any doctor or nurse not controlled by the White House that has said any of these...


...we have enough tests.
...we have enough PPE.
...we are doing well in controlling this.
...we'll be fine if we loosen restrictions.



I ask because I have a fair number of medical folk on my social media feed, and the concerning answer for me is "no." But a whole bunch--including a significant number who typically never post anything but kid/vacation type pics and who are long-time conservatives from my very conservative home town--are sounding the alarm in my feeds.

[Brian Swartz]

I think the answer on that is a clear hard no. I also think it's becoming more and more obvious that tests, once we get enough, won't even matter that much because the PPE issue is so prevalent that you have to limit who you test for that reason. Stuff is happening on that front - 3M has doubled the amount of N95 masks they produce for example - but it's not nearly enough to keep up with the need/demand. The new normal for at least a while - and while there is good news as others have said, so far the info I'm getting is that warmer weather doesn't affect this thing much - is going to be that if you aren't severely ill, don't bother going to the hospital. .

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Has anyone seen communication from any doctor or nurse not controlled by the White House that has said any of these...


...we have enough tests.
...we have enough PPE.
...we are doing well in controlling this.
...we'll be fine if we loosen restrictions.



I ask because I have a fair number of medical folk on my social media feed, and the concerning answer for me is "no." But a whole bunch--including a significant number who typically never post anything but kid/vacation type pics and who are long-time conservatives from my very conservative home town--are sounding the alarm in my feeds.

Nope.

Several friends in that field as well and all say they are basically screwed. My Uncle is a retired doctor associated with Mass General. He said 80% of the population will likely get sick, and if 5% of those require hospitalization it would exhaust all out resources.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

But a whole bunch--including a significant number who typically never post anything but kid/vacation type pics and who are long-time conservatives from my very conservative home town--are sounding the alarm in my feeds.

Dola...and that's not to mention the repeated impassioned pleas for us to stay at home, wash our hands, social distance, etc., from doctors' spouses who fit the above profile. Two weeks ago it was just my pulmonologist buddy here in GSO; it feels like a near-tsunami now.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I think the answer on that is a clear hard no. I also think it's becoming more and more obvious that tests, once we get enough, won't even matter that much because the PPE issue is so prevalent that you have to limit who you test for that reason. Stuff is happening on that front - 3M has doubled the amount of N95 masks they produce for example - but it's not nearly enough to keep up with the need/demand. The new normal for at least a while - and while there is good news as others have said, so far the info I'm getting is that warmer weather doesn't affect this thing much - is going to be that if you aren't severely ill, don't bother going to the hospital. .

How does the distribution of masks factor in as well?

I have tried to distance myself from listening to the government the last few days, but I was under the impressions states are on their own to procure what they need? Will 3M sell them to the highest bidders or will there be some form of equal distribution?

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Parents, your Spring Breakers are heading back home.

Florida bars and nightclubs to close, students ordered home, DeSantis says

Correlation does not necessarily lead to causation and all that jazz.

5 University of Tampa students test positive for coronavirus after spring break | WFLA

[Brian Swartz]

No idea on distribution.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

This isn't trolling. How China and South Korea handles this is vastly superior to us.

Their hospitals are segregated with regular patients and virus patients. So if you have any symptoms at all, you show up to this special hospital wing. You get a CAT scan and tests done and know the results in a couple hours. Everyone in this hospital is covered head to toe in protective gear. This means their doctors and nurses don't get sick at the same rate as ours.

Positive results aren't sent home to infect their families. They are sent to housing where they recover. You can't enter the country, hot spot neighborhoods, or most buildings without having your temperature taken.

South Korea early on tracked everyone they could that was exposed, tested them, and isolated them. They also don't let you enter buildings or neighborhoods without your temperature being taken. They have sophisticated alerts sent to your phone that will tell you where an infected person had been thus telling you whether you need to quarantine yourself because you might have been exposed.

In this country we still can't test people. Well unless you're famous. Results can take a week to get back if you're one of the lucky few. A positive result doesn't come with government isolation, you're just told to isolate your self, scouts honor. We haven't gotten close to peaking and hospitals are already being told to use bandanas for when they inevitably run out of masks.

China botched things early on no doubt, but they recovered incredibly well. South Korea did an amazing job too. I don't know how you can look at those countries and think we're in the same ballpark when it comes to preparedness. It helps they had to deal with SARS back in the day and learned a lot, but there is no reason for us to not have researched their strategies and replicated it here.

very fair statement.They did indeed do an amazing job. Like they actually tookit seriously and we did not.
we still are running around with our heads cut off.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Are any of you seeing people wear masks in public?

when i went for groceries i wore 2 scarvs over my mouth and gloves. the checkout lady and bagger made fun of me for it.

This was like last week. I just can't believe there are people still not taking this seriously

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Has anyone seen communication from any doctor or nurse not controlled by the White House that has said any of these...
...we have enough tests.
...we have enough PPE.
...we are doing well in controlling this.
...we'll be fine if we loosen restrictions.

Yes, except to the PPE part which shifted on, hmm, Thursday I think it was. (prior to that he'd expressed no concern on that topic afaik)
Name escapes me, he's an Illinois doctor who also does a lot of social media.

Note: believe him, don't believe him, whatever works for anybody in thread.
The question asked was "has anyone seen..." and that's the one I was answering.

[JPhillips]

The FEMA Director couldn't give Tapper even a rough estimate of masks shipped or purchased.

GM said they aren't making ventilators, they're just doing a feasibility study at present.

[JPhillips]

Rand Paul positive.

edit: How many Senators and Reps are positive or in quarantine?

[Jas_lov]

Well now he can't slow down the stimulus bill. They really need to go to electronic voting.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

Well now he can't slow down the stimulus bill. They really need to go to electronic voting.

Yes. It's frankly shocking that they didn't agree to a distance voting procedure after 9/11. We can end up in a dictatorship simply because Congress has no ability to legislate from a distance and the President would then almost have to take over everything.

[whomario]

Germany now with a national 2-or-less rule in public (especially parks etc) unless already in the same household and more stuff closing. Basically all Public life put on hold for 2 weeks.
Supermarkets etc adding more distancing measures as well.

I like putting in a 'loophole' so that people living alone aren't forced to 'sneak out' for at least some human contact. Rather meet in pairs outside then visit them in their flat/house. Been keeping to that myself only meet friends that live alone as well with limited Family contact.

[Brian Swartz]

Doesn't shock me personally. It's tough to get a bipartisan coalition around the idea that water is wet, nevermind making a significant change in the way the country votes.

[SirFozzie]

One Week of COVID 19 - Barenaked Ladies parody - Lyrics by @daniAWESOME - YouTube

[thesloppy]

The question of our testing abilities makes it hard to trust the infection numbers entirely, but I assume the mortality numbers remain realtively accurate.

It's all too early and tiny of a shift to call it a trend, but it's at least enough to give a pause to my ever-rising anxiety, which is worth something.

[Brian Swartz]

FYI already 94 US deaths reported today. Over half of them in NY which has doubled it's total case count from yesterday even with reduced testing. Certainly looks, as others have noted, that the Big Apple is where things are going to get the worst soonest in the US.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Are any of you seeing people wear masks in public?

I've seen a few older people at the grocery store wearing them.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Yes, except to the PPE part which shifted on, hmm, Thursday I think it was. (prior to that he'd expressed no concern on that topic afaik)
Name escapes me, he's an Illinois doctor who also does a lot of social media.

Note: believe him, don't believe him, whatever works for anybody in thread.
The question asked was "has anyone seen..." and that's the one I was answering.

You've been around long enough to know that I try to be as precise as I can with my wording. I asked it that way because that's what I wanted to know. Let me know if you remember the name. It's for a good cause. Tried googling and haven't found anything...

[CrimsonFox]

Dewine just ordered stay at home in ohio


lovelovelove dewine

[JPhillips]

Over 38k confirmed cases in the US

[Radii]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

It's all too early and tiny of a shift to call it a trend, but it's at least enough to give a pause to my ever-rising anxiety, which is worth something.

Yeahhhh, about that. The new cases number was weird yesterday, there was a report of something like 1500 new cases very late yesterday and its being counted today apparently. Additionally, today already there are 16,000 new cases reported, over 3 times more than any day recently. This is with still extremely limited testing and testing that really doesn't help us curtail anything since we pretty much only test people already, and congress apparently

I may be staring at the youtube livestream that tracks reports coming in in real time. Its certainly not an official source but the Johns Hopkins site that tracks cases just seems to lag a few hours behind and I've yet to see a large report of new cases (1000+) on the livestream be inaccurate.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Over 38k confirmed cases in the US

and that's not even close to what there probably actually are.

So does anyone know why exactly anyone can't just tested? They are saying only those at risk can get tested. Why is that?

I have gotten tested for flu before.
They stuck a long swap up my nostril and into my sinus. Was quite horrible.
I assume the process is similar for tested covid only specifically ran against a specific outcome. So why is this a problem?

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Crimson Fox

does anyone know why exactly anyone can't just tested? They are saying only those at risk can get tested. Why is that?

PPE is the issue. Masks, gowns, etc. They have to be used to when testing anyone, otherwhise there's a significant risk of an asymptomatic patient infecting the medical staff doing the test, and so on. Having anyone gets tested takes equipment away from critical patients and doctors at this point.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Radii

Yeahhhh, about that. The new cases number was weird yesterday, there was a report of something like 1500 new cases very late yesterday and its being counted today apparently. Additionally, today already there are 16,000 new cases reported, over 3 times more than any day recently. This is with still extremely limited testing and testing that really doesn't help us curtail anything since we pretty much only test people already, and congress apparently

I may be staring at the youtube livestream that tracks reports coming in in real time. Its certainly not an official source but the Johns Hopkins site that tracks cases just seems to lag a few hours behind and I've yet to see a large report of new cases (1000+) on the livestream be inaccurate.

do you have a link yo that stream?

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Dewine just ordered stay at home in ohio


lovelovelove dewine

I believe it goes into effect 11:59pm Monday.

Which means I have one day to stock up on alcohol and MCU movies.

[NobodyHere]

If my boss grew out his hair he'd probably be tearing it out right now.

[JPhillips]

The Congressional gym and swimming pool was open all the way until at least this morning. Paul went to both this morning after he was tested but before he got results.

Why are all the old people running the country still going to the gym?

[CrimsonFox]

Rand Paul tested positive so there's that

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

So does anyone know why exactly anyone can't just tested? They are saying only those at risk can get tested. Why is that?

The guy who heads the epidemiology section for the NC Department of Public Health shared this article recently, with the comment:

This is critically important. If you are sick but you don’t need medical care, STAY HOME. Getting tested doesn’t help you and it doesn’t help us track the outbreak. All it does is increase chances for people to get exposed in the community and (even worse) in healthcare settings. It is also burning through things like personal protective equipment and testing supplies that are in short supply and will be desperately needed when this really hits.


Thanks to Tom Frieden for stating this much better than I have. Glad some people are pushing back on this mania for testing everyone.

How NYC can get through the coronavirus crisis - New York Daily News


I found this section particularly instructive:

1. You use up medical equipment and tests others need more.


2. You might infect others as you travel to and seek care.


3. If you don’t have the infection, you could get it in the process of traveling and getting tested, especially since health care gets less safe when more people are waiting for it — including people with only mild symptoms.


4. It’s not going to change what you should do: Stay home and isolate yourself. Anyone with symptoms of COVID-19 should be assumed to have it. The test result shouldn’t change what you or your doctor do.


5. The test can be negative even if you have the virus, leading you to infect others if you don’t stay isolated.


6. Right now, testing positive won’t lead to useful action or meaningful data: The Health Department won’t be able to trace your contacts or confirm where you were infected because too many people are positive, and because this would have less value at present than other urgent work, including preventing and stopping outbreaks in nursing homes and hospitals.

[CrimsonFox]

okay jphillips beat me by like a lot

[Jas_lov]

But Rand was tested with no symptoms. He had it, felt fine and could have been spreading it to others. Now he knows he has it and is quarantined. Regular people with actual symptoms can't get tested and are they staying home? Rand didn't.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by JPhilliops

Why are all the old people running the country still going to the gym?

Because they have no more sense or self-awareness than many of their constituents. I can't even begin to understand why they thought it was a good idea. There are exercises you can do while isolated. Wake Up.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

The guy who heads the epidemiology section for the NC Department of Public Health shared this article recently, with the comment:




How NYC can get through the coronavirus crisis - New York Daily News


I found this section particularly instructive:

it still sounds like a lot of excuses. didn't rainmaker's post say south korea were giving out tests like candy?

I kinda feel like some of the reason is to keep the numbers down.

[Brian Swartz]

Yes they were, but they had drive-up testing locations ready, locations to segregate people who were infected ready, sufficient testing capacity ready, etc. way faster than we did. As in, we still don't. They still have more infections per capita than we do, but on a pure numbers basis we're getting roughly as many positives a day with limited testing right now as they have had during the entirety of the outbreak. It's simply way too late for mass testing to do any good now, the point of it is relative containment and we've lost that fight. Also, countries like that accept limiting freedom for the public good a lot easier than we do. American independent spirit or whatever you want to call it has many virtues. It also carries a cost with it. This is one of them.

[thesloppy]

For whatever it's worth I have a friend who is a USPS carrier and he says they aren't preparing worth a shit and are practically operating as normal.

That said, I was reading an article by some sort of 'pandemic expert' yesterday that suggested that a necessary step of the herd immunity process was getting our essential service workers infected & immune before everybody else, which is an interesting wrinkle.