08-16-2011, 10:03 AM | #2051 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Also, on the topic of Telle I would be inclined to vote her straight-away based on Chubby's late posts yesterday suggesting he might have seer-type info. But I've seen him push hard on other targets (Lathum early in this game for one, many others across other games) without the benefit of seer insight.
I'm going back to re-read his stuff from yesterday now. My suspicion is that he would have just said "I've got a wolf, get over here NOW" if it was a seer-type scan. But he wasn't straight-forward about his need for bodyguard protection, so maybe he wasn't here? Not sure ... back to reading posts. |
08-16-2011, 10:04 AM | #2052 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Quote:
No, he's Balder. I'm just worried that the non-kill on Night 2 might have meant conversion. It could have meant a lot of things, but if there was a conversion on Night 2 then EF was the one who was cleared and he had already shown he couldn't be lynched. So he sure seems like a great target for them to convert, as long as they felt they could get past the bodyguard. |
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08-16-2011, 10:08 AM | #2053 | |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fresno, CA
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Quote:
Agreed. I was just ruminating making a post about conversion timing and who would be possible conversion targets. We've had 2 no-NK nights, correct? Nights 2 and 4? |
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08-16-2011, 10:09 AM | #2054 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Quote:
Mine is faulty in the other direction, I'm not getting a strong reading on anyone right now. |
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08-16-2011, 10:09 AM | #2055 | |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fresno, CA
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Quote:
Agreed. For the most part I haven't. I say all those things I listed above, but I also didn't then vote BK or Lathum because of it, and I did stick on Danny despite being told that voting him (or giving him extra rope) was a good idea But regardless, I read these things and I can't help but have let it sow the seed of doubt a bit about my "base" of thinking |
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08-16-2011, 10:11 AM | #2056 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Whittier
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Does anyone want to update their sent/received items?
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08-16-2011, 10:11 AM | #2057 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Quote:
Night 4 we learned Thor was wounded, and seeing as how he is now dead I don't think that was a conversion. But Night 2 remains very much unanswered. Assuming we still have a bodyguard role (not at all a certainty), it would be great to know what he has done this game. I'm not looking for him to come out, but we're in Day 6 of a no-seer game (assumption) and information is hard to come by right now. If there was in fact a block on Night 2 that would give me major reassurances about EagleFan ... which is only important to me because everyone else posting trust lists seems to be blindly trusting him rather than hedging bets. |
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08-16-2011, 10:12 AM | #2058 | |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fresno, CA
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Quote:
Exactly. I mean I hate to argue "we should lynch a villager!" but there is likely a balance point of filling in multiple sentences of "If PlayerA dies and the result is B, then we can thinking good/bad about Players X, Y, and Z" Not advocating it as a sole thinking point, but there is some benefit to it, and I think we're still in good enough of a position that now would be the time. |
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08-16-2011, 10:17 AM | #2059 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fresno, CA
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Thinking aloud here Re:conversion.
The idea behind conversion is to slip one past the defense so to speak. Looking at the list of who is left, I see two groups. The top being the likely targets (trusted people, though Racers' trust probably came too late if we're not thinking N4 conversion) and the rest being the "field" (yeah, great to convert them and add a wolf, but no secondary benefit) 1. Narcizo 12. Racer 14. Barkeep49 15. Lathum 20. hoopsguy 17. EagleFan 5. Zinto 9. ntndeacon 10. mckerney 13. mauboy1 18. MrBug708 19. jeheinz72 21. Telle The top list I've placed trusted players, as well as good wolves. I mean if I was a wolf and knew there was likely no seer scans, well, I'd be very down to have hoops/Narc/Lathum/BK as a wolf because they can be difficult to get the group to lynch The bottom list is players, I feel, give the wolves no "bonus" for being converted. I mean they could have converted them sure, but there was no real reason to. |
08-16-2011, 10:19 AM | #2060 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Whittier
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I read that as good WW players vs unknown/bad
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08-16-2011, 10:19 AM | #2061 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Whittier
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Did I miss the role/rule about conversion?
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08-16-2011, 10:22 AM | #2062 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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Hoops: I agree possibly challenging the night 2 = block is an important assumption to challenge at some point. Just not sure if now is that time.
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08-16-2011, 10:22 AM | #2063 |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
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08-16-2011, 10:24 AM | #2064 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Nothing was listed about it, but we've got no information on what any of the wolf/villager roles do. Just the names. Conversion discussion could just be me being paranoid (shrug) ... but it has been simmering for a couple of days now and hit a boiling point yesterday with some of the trust lists that I saw. I didn't want to distract the conversation yesterday with this tangent, but today seemed like an OK time to introduce it. |
08-16-2011, 10:26 AM | #2065 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Whittier
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Couldnt an equally plausible action be the creation of the fake hammer?
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08-16-2011, 10:27 AM | #2066 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Quote:
Nope, I'm fine with letting that wait a couple of days. I just wanted to make sure that the collective "village" is assessing risk properly. Or at least hearing why I think it is important to be a little guarded with our most trusted villager. I'm happy to return to conversations around everyone else at this point - I think I've covered the EagleFan ground I needed to this morning. |
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08-16-2011, 10:29 AM | #2067 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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08-16-2011, 10:39 AM | #2068 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fresno, CA
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Here's a run down of who has voted for whom, each line a new day
Narcizo Lathum Mauboy -> NTN DV Thomkal Telle Zinto Lathum -> Danny Danny -> J23 -> Danny NTN -> BK -> DV Thomkal NTN ntndeacon Danny Heinz -> Chubby -> Heinz Lathum -> DV Autumn *-* mckerney NTN Chubby DV Autumn NTN Racer Thomkal -> EF -> Danny J23 -> Hoops -> Chubby -> Lathum -> NTN -> Danny BK -> DV -> BK -> DV Thomkal Autumn -> NTN -> Autumn mauboy1 Danny -> Chubby Danny BK Autumn -> Thomkal Zinto -> Autumn Barkeep49 EF Danny -> Chubby -> Danny DV Hoops -> Autumn -> Telle Autumn Lathum Heinz -> Danny -> Chubby -> EF -> Chubby Chubby -> Danny DV -> BK -> DV Autumn -> Telle -> Thomkal Telle EagleFan Autumn -> Chubby -> Autumn -> Danny Lathum -> Chubby -> Danny Lathum Hoops -> BK -> Telle -> Thomkal Narc -> Zinto -> Autumn -> NTN -> Autumn MrBug708 Zinto Danny Lathum Telle Autumn jeheinz72 Racer -> Danny Racer -> Chubby -> NTN NTN Thomkal Autumn -> Mau -> NTN hoopsguy EF Danny DV Autumn Autumn Telle Autumn -> Danny NTN Lathum Autumn -> Thomkal NTN |
08-16-2011, 10:44 AM | #2069 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fresno, CA
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Looking at it as such, I'm not feeling good about Mau, Hoops (poss. conversion), a converted EF or Narcizo
FTR, I'm not in favor of going the EF-converted route today. Just noting above. |
08-16-2011, 10:52 AM | #2070 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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If you wanted to think I was converted, then you would also have to ask why I would have put the vote I did on Darth. It doesn't make a lot of sense to do so on Day 3, unless there was a 2nd wolf in the mix between Barkeep/Lathum.
I know that didn't happen, but if you want to explore that train of thought that would be the next question to try and understand. |
08-16-2011, 10:53 AM | #2071 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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In terms of mau, I've been skittish about him as well but figured we should give him a day to get his sword. Since he is in the thread right now, I would love to hear if that item made its way to him?
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08-16-2011, 10:54 AM | #2072 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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What is Narc's claim to innocence again? He was in chain of custody with the sword and could be considered for making the switch. I just know that there was a good reason to think he was innocent, I just don't recall what it was.
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08-16-2011, 10:57 AM | #2073 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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I agree that it's time for mau to reveal.
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08-16-2011, 10:58 AM | #2074 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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I, again, think we need to be careful with the converted talk. Some awareness of the possibility is good, but given that it's not mentioned I think we need to be careful about asserting it as a strike against people.
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08-16-2011, 11:00 AM | #2075 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fresno, CA
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Going down the road of "if we lynch A, who do we learn about..."
Narc: Lots: Telle, NTN Some: Lathum, Mau Zinto Lots: NTN Some: BK, Bug, Lathum NTN Learn Lots: McK, Heinz, Telle Learn some: Narc, Zinto, Racer, Lathum McK Lots: NTN Some: Racer Lots Some: Heinz, NTN, BK Mau Lots: Some: BK, Zinto, Heinz BK Lots: Racer, Mau, Some: Zinto, Lathum, EF, Telle, Hoops Lathum Lots: NTN, Telle Some: Narc, Zinto, EF, Bug, BK EF Lots: Some: Just about everyone, though I don't advocate an EF lynch today Bug Lots: Some: Zinto, Lathum, Telle Heinz Lots: NTN Some: Mau Hoops Lots: Some: Racer, BK, EF Telle Learn Lots: Narc, Lathum, NTN Learn some: BK, Bug |
08-16-2011, 11:01 AM | #2076 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fresno, CA
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Count me as thirding for Mau just spilling the beans.
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08-16-2011, 11:02 AM | #2077 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Quote:
I personally have had him at flat neutral the whole time. He was the person who passed me the hammer I passed to Chubby, which turned out to be fake. I think he was potentially involved with other items as well, but I didn't recall him on the sword that mauboy should have received. But the item stuff is no more than a small data point in terms of villager/wolf, except potentially with the mistletoe. I want the info on where items are going, but I don't want to over-value it. For me, Narcizo's greatest value is in terms of vote/post analysis. I'm reluctant to vote for him too early because I think he helps drive better conversations. I'm not sure when the risk/reward tilts on that estimation, but Day 6 is probably fair to put him squarely in the mix. |
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08-16-2011, 11:04 AM | #2078 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Murfreesboro, TN
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A quick update and a quick thank you to telle for sending the item my way. Definitely puts her higher in my trust list for the time being. I did acquire skills as well.
I will say for now that one of the skills is likely provable and the other is a possibly provable skill. It depends. I will give a think on whether or not to explain what is I might do with one of them tonight or future nights. Please understand as it could be a momentum changer and I'm not sure I like being in this position at all. |
08-16-2011, 11:15 AM | #2079 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Murfreesboro, TN
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I will try to answer any questions when I can. I'll leave my phone open to this page and sneak a peak when I can. I've got a couple loans coming in this afternoon though.
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08-16-2011, 11:25 AM | #2080 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
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A few observations (so I can put my thoughts together later; they may already be mentioned by someone but I have little time at the moment):
Day one: Narc, mckerney and Bug on non-candidates. If more than one wolf on me it would leave hoops and BK as possibles. Assuming wolves knew about the Danny save ahead of time we can discount some of the votes (but we don't know the exact mechanic that saved him, was it a vote being switched or added votes or just a flat out duking; I assume either added votes or vote bwing altered as the write up says I was voted out). Day two: Nac, heinze, Telle and ntn on non main candidates. Wolves could have switched to Danny figuring they still had the extra kill coming; and to gain trust. Day three: Bug and Telle last unknowns on Lathum; more than one wolf most likely would not have voted DV that day. mau and heinz on throw aways. Day four: Don't know aht to make of that yet. Day five: Need to find out ntn and Telle to really see what this day means. |
08-16-2011, 11:26 AM | #2081 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Whittier
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Enough people are vouching for Telle at this point that I don't think a lynch vote will hold against her and I'm inclined to hold off. I do think that a lot of questions will be answered by the death of her, but I'm afraid that we might just have even more questions afterwords.
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08-16-2011, 11:28 AM | #2082 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
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jeheinz? What "some" do you learn about everyone if you try to lynch me? You'll learn what you did on day one, that I still can't be lynched and am a villager. It would be a wasted day.
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08-16-2011, 11:31 AM | #2083 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
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vote mckerney
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08-16-2011, 11:34 AM | #2084 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
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Quote:
Uh, don't you mean if JAG was lying about it... |
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08-16-2011, 11:36 AM | #2085 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Whittier
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lol...you know what I meant
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08-16-2011, 11:39 AM | #2086 | |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fresno, CA
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Quote:
Yeah, that's why I don't really advocate for it. I mean you could've been converted, but I don't think that's a topic for today much like hoops and BK said earlier. I just noted you on there for consistency sake, and then nearly everyone either had voted for you or had been voted by you, ergo the note. |
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08-16-2011, 11:40 AM | #2087 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fresno, CA
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08-16-2011, 11:54 AM | #2088 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fresno, CA
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Mau - so you have some power, and it's provable, but you can't actually prove it yet?
What would be your timeline for being able to prove yourself in this manner? Why wouldn't you like being in this position? |
08-16-2011, 11:57 AM | #2089 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Quote:
I'm guessing he's able to kill someone and doesn't want to end up killing a villager. |
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08-16-2011, 11:58 AM | #2090 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Quote:
I'm not going to be getting any answers from Chubby at this point, but I've pulled some of his posts near the deadline up. First one - he sticks with the Telle vote he cast early in the day. Isn't moving it even with potential NTN/Autumn tie looming. Second one - very clearly pushing for move to Telle, even though there realistically isn't time to do it. Third one - talks about risk of potential tie if he moves his vote. Fourth one - says there wasn't going to be a tie, implying he was going to act on the vote. But if there was a duking to be had, he would have duked it to Telle, right? So where the heck was he going with this? I want to believe he had some insight into Telle here - the lack of vote movement and the shout-out to Thomkal argue that point - but it is really hard for me to put too much weight into what Chubby types when I read stuff that doesn't add up like the "no tie" stuff at the end here. I may end up voting Telle today, but it will be largely drive by the heinz "learn the most" logic and not because dead Thor thought Telle was a bad guy. |
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08-16-2011, 12:22 PM | #2091 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fresno, CA
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I'd think the subset within which I'm likely voting today would be Telle, NTN, Narcizo or Mau
First three due to the what we'd learn theory. Mau because I just don't know if I'm buying the reveal just yet and without it, he'd be a very possible vote from me |
08-16-2011, 12:24 PM | #2092 | |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
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Quote:
Did you not notice that he also did a "shout-out to Thomkal" regarding Autumn before the lynch? He was just thoroughly convinced that we were both wolves. |
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08-16-2011, 12:25 PM | #2093 |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
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I'd give mauboy a day to prove his power(s). No point in lynching him today before he's had a chance to take action (which probably takes place at deadline).
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08-16-2011, 12:43 PM | #2094 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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I'm going to cast a vote for the very disinterested Lathum. He's lower on my trust list at this stage in the game, his activity level has been more or less shot since Chubby stopped crusading against him, and I want to see where this goes for right now.
VOTE LATHUM |
08-16-2011, 12:46 PM | #2095 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Murfreesboro, TN
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Well.. let me have some suggestions for a kill then if that's going to help clear me. Would it be good to kill the other half of the Lynch vote? Or go elsewhere? I need input as I really don't wanna do this on my own.
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08-16-2011, 12:48 PM | #2096 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Murfreesboro, TN
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And I'm also not 100% sure going to put an order in. I'm gonna see if its plausible to prove the other way.
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08-16-2011, 01:13 PM | #2097 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fresno, CA
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At the risk of sounding all-threaty, just doing nothing will make me think you're a wolf (barring you proving it in the other manner).
I'd prefer you take a hack and miss, getting yourself at least partially into a CoT than inaction. |
08-16-2011, 01:18 PM | #2098 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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mauboy, taking feedback from the group is fine but really this is your decision. Some of the people steering you are likely to be wolves. So if you are a villager, listen but make sure you are comfortable with the decision and own it.
Odin and Thor are already dead - how bad a decision could you really make? (kiss of death) |
08-16-2011, 01:22 PM | #2099 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Other part, just in case it is processed in real-time as you submit the order, don't do it right before deadline where it might force us to adjust. Give us a couple of hours, rather than whacking someone with 10 minutes to go and leaving people scrambling to interpret data and folks like heinz/Narc unable to react until the following day.
If it is processed at the deadline, then this doesn't apply. |
08-16-2011, 01:34 PM | #2100 |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Fort Wayne, Indiana
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I also agree Mauboy should do whatever he can do sooner rather then later as if he's actually a villager he'll likely be pretty high up on the wolves target list at this point.
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