Werewolf XXXVI: Resident Evil (S.T.A.R.S. Wins! Post #1424)

[Fouts]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

If Fouts can be trusted that he is STARS, then we have 5 STARS left. If there is 5 STARS left, then the right move is to lynch Dodgerchick.

Did you not read my scenario above?

[Mr. Wednesday]

I agree with the analysis presented.

VOTE SnDvls

[Mr. Wednesday]

Dola, who do we think is highest probability zombie?

Lowest probability STARS, not counting known Umbrella?

[Mr. Wednesday]

I don't think I'm ready to take a shot tonight, but I want to think seriously about my target list.

[hoopsguy]

Spleen, are you sure about LSG as STARS?

I'm pretty sure about MrW as STARS. That is about it. Fouts pushing for an Umbrella lynch on SnDvls makes me feel better about him as STARS but I don't think it is a stone-cold lock.

[Fouts]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Dola, who do we think is highest probability zombie?

Lowest probability STARS, not counting known Umbrella?

I posted it before, but my probablity list;

highest chance at zombie: Dodger Chick, Chief Rum, Spleen, LSG (in that order)

lowest chance at zombie: Fouts, Mr. W, hoops, BrianD, Sndvls (in that order)

[hoopsguy]

Fouts, you ready to watch the vote move in the last couple of hours tonight?

[hoopsguy]

Not talking about mine this time, just expecting some push-back.

[Fouts]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Fouts, you ready to watch the vote move in the last couple of hours tonight?

Yeah, the four confirmed STARS should vote as a block.

[Glengoyne]

Originally Posted by Fouts

What? You left me hanging in the wind??? Grrr.

I'm guarantee you that if I hadn't gotten lynched, I was coming for your pot stirring ass.

[Lorena]

Sndvls 3 - fouts, hoopsguy, Mr. Wednesday
DC 2 - LSG, Spleen
Fouts 1 - Sndvls
Spleen 1 - briand

Not voted Chief Rum and me

Quick note so I can look elsewhere besides a spreadsheet

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Fouts

I guess it depends on where you think we are. The Umbrella just need to get control of the voting. Once they do, we are done.

If it is 5-3-1 right now and we miss and lynch a STARS, then the zombies kill a STARS, then it is 3-3-1 and we've lost control of the lynch.

I think the remaining zombie should be worried about an Umbrella win. Once the Umbrella get control of the vote, there will be no stopping them.

LSG, what are your thoughts on that?

umbrella already have control of the vote because there are 2 zombies left
one original and one convert and enough of us to still win.

the zombies know they need to keep us around to win

I will say it again fouts there is a person on your list who isn't good

[LoneStarGirl]

I thought the people on Fouts' list were people he scanned and verified? I understand the needing to take out umbrella, so i'll switch to sndvls, but i am confident anxiety/dc is a zombie and needs to be dealt with soon.

unvote dodgerchick

vote sndvls

[hoopsguy]

SnDvls, so you were:
1. Booted from the Umbrella chat last night?
2. Know the identity of two remaining zombies?
3. Knew that Alan was STARS?

Hmm, must have been pretty lucky with those first three scans.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

SnDvls, so you were:
1. Booted from the Umbrella chat last night?
2. Know the identity of two remaining zombies?
3. Knew that Alan was STARS?

Hmm, must have been pretty lucky with those first three scans.

I knew st. c was stars too and that glen was zombie don't forget those

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Glengoyne

I'm guarantee you that if I hadn't gotten lynched, I was coming for your pot stirring ass.

you should have backed off me I could have help you stay in.

[Lorena]

So how many zombies do we think there are? I'm not a zombie so there's no way for me to know. I'm not sure about the "dealing with DC later" strategy because it will not get you closer to a zombie, I assure you that.

vote Sndvls

Self preservation, obviously.

Since there's a strong possibility that I wont be around by lynch, I'm leaving my vote on him.

[Fouts]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

umbrella already have control of the vote because there are 2 zombies left
one original and one convert and enough of us to still win.

the zombies know they need to keep us around to win

I will say it again fouts there is a person on your list who isn't good

If you were still helping us, I might believe what you are saying. I really don't want to take the chance on killing a STARS.

[BrianD]

Just got back from class. I still think the game ends tonight if we lynch Spleen, but I can see where padding the numbers helps us. I just hope we really are down to one zombie as two night kills tonight would be painful.

Unvote Spleen
Vote SnDvls

[Fouts]

Oh, and even if there are 2 zombies, they wouldn't keep you around because you outnumber them. Zombies and Umbrella will need to move against each other very soon.

[Fouts]

I think this is right:

Sndvls 6 - fouts, hoopsguy, Mr. W, LSG, DC, BrianD
DC 1 - Spleen
Fouts 1 - Sndvls

Not voted: Chief Rum

[Fouts]

I think SnDvls, Spleen and Chief Rum make sense as Umbrella. That would mean the zombie is hiding on the SnDvls vote.

[Fouts]

I think I have a good guess on who the PC is, and its too late for the zombies to do anything. We are all out there and they can't kill us all.

[Chief Rum]

I hope it's not too late for this. I have been debating what to do for some time since I got home.

I am the Umbrella seer, James Marcus. There are two zombies left, including one in the "trusted" STARS list Fouts provides (I assume converted). If we lynch SnDvls, that will leave just two of us Umbrella, along with two zombies. And tonight, the zombies will, I am sure, kill a member of STARS, bringing you from four to three.

Three STARS will have plurality, but they won't have a majority. The zombies and us will have four votes, and I assure you, if there's just two of us tomorrow (in Umbrella), we will be voting for STARS, not zombies.

I have played out the scenario a few times in my head, and in that case, most likely the zombies will win. If we kill a zombie tonight, that puts the remaining zombie's back to the wall and moves you closer to your win condition--but we also have a better chance then of winning ourselves.

Do you fear us or the zombies more? You should fear the zombies. And reducing our number tonight, with an assured STARS death tonight by zombies, could give the game to them.

If we kill a zombie tonight, you might win down the road, or we might win. But the odds for both sides increases immensely.

I hope it's not too late.

[Chief Rum]

Oh yeah...

LYNCH SPLEEN

[Fouts]

Man we need a number cruncher. You are saying it is 4-3-2?

[Fouts]

Chief, the problem is - if spleen is a villager, we lose. If we kill an umbrella, how do we lose? We can still win.

[Fouts]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Oh yeah...

LYNCH SPLEEN

Now you are suggesting there are only 2 Umbrella left, or one of the Umbrella are voting for SnDvls.

[hoopsguy]

Chief, are we to assume that Spleen is a Zombie based on your vote for him here? I have no interest in helping you to lynch a member of STARS here today.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Fouts

Chief, the problem is - if spleen is a villager, we lose. If we kill an umbrella, how do we lose? We can still win.

Spleen is not a villager, and he will probably be feasting on hoopsguy's brains tonight.

If you kill SnDvls, in the morning, you will be outnumbered 4-3, with Umbrella voting with zombies.

[LoneStarGirl]

Cheif how do you know spleen is not a villager? For once I have to go with fouts, i dont want to risk losing this game tonight. we know who sndvls is,when we lynch him we cannot lose.

I dont think spleen is a STARS but i dont know for sure, so i dont want to put my vote on him.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Fouts

Now you are suggesting there are only 2 Umbrella left, or one of the Umbrella are voting for SnDvls.

One Umbrella is on SnDvls right now for hiding purposes and disagrees with my thinking. I am hoping that Umbrella will change their mind. SnDvls is the other Umbrella besides this person.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Chief, are we to assume that Spleen is a Zombie based on your vote for him here? I have no interest in helping you to lynch a member of STARS here today.

I wouldn't expect you to, but spleen is not a member of STARS. He may have once been, but as of last night, he was a zombie. He might be the converted. I do not know. It wasn't until last night's weird showdown that I decided to scan him.

[hoopsguy]

Chief, what if I suggested that us lynching a STARS was your only chance of winning at this point in the game and that I think you are bluffing about Spleen?

[Fouts]

You have to see where we are coming from. If spleen is a STARS, and we lose one tonight, we are at 2-3-2. Perfect for Umbrella.

If we kill an umbrella, and lose a STARS tonight, we are at 3-2-2. Not great, but better.

Those both consider you are telling the truth about the amount of zombies.

[hoopsguy]

So you are saying that Spleen and one of the people on Fouts' list of scans are the remaining Zombies?

[Fouts]

The other option is spleen is a zombie and we lose a STARS tonight, then its 3-3-1.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Chief, what if I suggested that us lynching a STARS was your only chance of winning at this point in the game and that I think you are bluffing about Spleen?

I realize you would think that, so I working an uphill battle here. All I can say is that spleen and Glen played it off very well last night, because spleen was a zombie while doing that. I was very impressed when I found out spleen's allegiance.

[Fouts]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

So you are saying that Spleen and one of the people on Fouts' list of scans are the remaining Zombies?

He hinted at that and then backed off and said spleen might be the converted. I don't see it as possible that my list has a converted.

I still think there is just one zombie.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

So you are saying that Spleen and one of the people on Fouts' list of scans are the remaining Zombies?

After reviewing Fouts' list, actually, no. I made a dumb mistake, was thinking spleen was on his list. Both zombies are not on Fouts' list.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Fouts

You have to see where we are coming from. If spleen is a STARS, and we lose one tonight, we are at 2-3-2. Perfect for Umbrella.

If we kill an umbrella, and lose a STARS tonight, we are at 3-2-2. Not great, but better.

Those both consider you are telling the truth about the amount of zombies.

Either scenario is not to your benefit.

[hoopsguy]

Rum, Spleen was not on Fouts' list.

I'm not asking you to give away the 2nd zombie - just to confirm that it is one of the people that Fouts' has cleared.

So you are now stating that neither zombie is on Fouts' cleared list?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Fouts

The other option is spleen is a zombie and we lose a STARS tonight, then its 3-3-1.

Yes, that is what I am aiming for. I am willing to allow you to move closer to your win condition so that we will also have a better chance of winning.

If two zombies live past tonight's lynch, I think they will win.

[Fouts]

Ok, so Chief has claimed Umbrella, and that part is believable. That just leaves spleen, DC and Brian sitting out there.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Rum, Spleen was not on Fouts' list.

I'm not asking you to give away the 2nd zombie - just to confirm that it is one of the people that Fouts' has cleared.

So you are now stating that neither zombie is on Fouts' cleared list?

Yes, sorry, hoops, I made a dumb mistake and read "SnDvls" as spleen when I was putting things together. Neither zombie has been cleared by Fouts.

[Mr. Wednesday]

If we knock Umbrella down to equal with the zombies, they HAVE to cooperate to get rid of a zombie at some point.

[Fouts]

If spleen is the zombie, he voted very early for DC, when it was possible for her to get lynched. Hard to believe they are both zombies.

If Brian is zombie, then it makes sense about his move last night, if there were 2 zombies pitted against each other. Brian has been very hard to pin to a role. He could be zombie, Umbrella or even the PC.

If DC is zombie, see spleen above. I can't see both of them being zombies.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Dola, that said, we've got the numbers right now to move the vote anyway we choose, I think, or no way at all.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Anybody else think we've got something approaching a prisoner's dilemma here? Somebody's going to wind up helping another team win the game.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

If we knock Umbrella down to equal with the zombies, they HAVE to cooperate to get rid of a zombie at some point.

Maybe when we're all equal we would. But if this vote sticks, we will be down to two members each of Umbrella and STARS. Zombies will go for the big dogs on the block, since you can do a lot of damage in a vote (plus the most damaging roles are currently held by STARS). We will have to go for you, because after we go to two, we can't afford to kill off a zombie and move you closer to a win with three remaining members.