NFL 2021 Regular Season Thread

[albionmoonlight]

Drew Brees and Phil Rivers watched that game, looked over at their wife, and said "Yeah, no regrets on that decision."

[albionmoonlight]

dola: and props to the Dolphins. I hope they make the playoffs. Will be nice to see some new blood in the AFC instead of 56 year old Big Ben for the 100th season in a row.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Drew Brees and Phil Rivers watched that game, looked over at their wife, and said "Yeah, no regrets on that decision."

Hmm... that must have been quite the quarterback room in San Diego back when Rivers was drafted and learning from Brees. Some things teammates probably shouldn't share, though I'm sure there's a Dan Jenkins novel somewhere that makes it all work.

Should the league do more, joking aside, to ensure that each game is a quality product? The Saints may miss the playoffs because of this loss. I don't know how you change things to avoid this kind of situation, but it doesn't seem right to put a guy like Book in a place where he's going to fail.

Quarterbacks are asked to do so much. Even an experienced guy who took his team to the AFC championship not that long ago couldn't step in instead of Book because playbooks are so complex. Brees might have been tempted because he knows the basics of the Saints offense, but I'm sure Rivers was not.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Ive seen a lot of not ready for the NFL quarterbacks over the years but Ian Book has to be the most unready of them all. Just a horrendous performance tonight.

Who better, Book or Boyle?

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

An "oh my" stat from @ESPNStatsInfo: Notre Dame QBs have lost 23 straight starts in the NFL. The last win was by Brady Quinn in Week 13 of the 2012 season vs the Panthers.

— Mike Triplett (@MikeTriplett) December 28, 2021

I don't think I have any perception of Notre Dame quarterbacks and yes nuance. All that being said, that is an incredible stat.

[MIJB#19]

Playoffs scenarios for week 17
Updated after Miami at New Orleans, including some additional scenario fixes.

Current seeding order

	AFC				NFC
1	Kansas City	11-4		1	Green Bay	12-3
2	Tennessee	10-5		2	Dallas	11-4
3	Cincinnati	9-6		3	LA Rams	11-4
4	Buffalo	9-6		4	Tampa Bay	11-4
5	Indianapolis	9-6		5	Arizona	10-5
6	New England	9-6		6	San Francisco	8-7
7	Miami	8-7		7	Philadelphia	8-7
8	Baltimore	8-7		8	Minnesota	7-8
9	LA Chargers	8-7		9	Atlanta	7-8
10	Las Vegas	8-7		10	New Orleans	7-8
11	Pittsburgh	7-7-1		11	Washington	6-9
12	Cleveland	7-8		12	Carolina	5-10
13	Denver	7-8		13	Chicago	5-10
14	NY Jets	4-11		14	Seattle	5-10
15	Houston	4-11		15	NY Giants	4-11
16	Jacksonville	2-13		16	Detroit	2-12-1

Tie-breaker situation per division

AFC East tie-breaker situation
Buffalo currently leads ahead of New England on division record (4-1 vs 3-2). They end up tied in that as well if Buffalo goes W-L and New England L-W in the last 2 games, in which case common games will be up next (tied situation in this scenario) and then eventually New England has conference record to win the division. As a result, neither Buffalo or New England can clinch in week 17.
Buffalo will beat Miami in a 2-way tie at 10-7 or 9-7-1 each on heado-to-head.
Miami will beat New England in a 2-way tie at 10-7 or 9-7-1 on head-to-head.
In a 3-way tie between Buffalo, New England and Miami, Buffalo will win the division on head-to-head between the three teams.

AFC North tie-breaker situation
Cincinnati has head-to-head over Baltimore and Pittsburgh in each 2-way and also in this 3-way.
If Cincinnati ends up tied with Cleveland (at 9-8 each) in a 2-way, Cleveland will be ahead on head-to-head.
A 2-way tie between Baltimore and Pittsburgh will always go to Pittsburgh on head-to-head.
A 2-way tie between Baltimore and Cleveland will go to Cleveland on division record.
A 2-way tie between Pittsburgh and Cleveland will go to Pittsburgh if they tie the h-t-h clash in week 17, or to Cleveland if Cleveland wins the h-t-h clash in week 17.
A 3-way between Cincinnati, Baltimore and Cleveland will go to Cleveland on head-to-head.
A 3-way between Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Cleveland is impossible.
A 3-way between Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Cleveland (for 2nd place in the division) will go to Pittsburgh on head-to-head record between the 3.
A 4-way tie is no longer mathematically possible.

AFC South
Tennessee has tie-breakers over Indianapolis on head-to-head.

AFC West
Kansas City clinched the division.
LA Chargers will have tie-breakers over Las Vegas on head-to-head, or if LA Chargers goes W-L and Las Vegas L-W on common games. Denver will have tie-breakers over LA Chargers on head-to-head. Las Vegas will have tie-breakers over Denver on head-to-head.
In a 3-way between LA Chargers, Las Vegas and Denver, if they end up 9-8 each, it will go down to a 2-way between LA Chargers and Denver on division record (which then goes to Denver). If they end up 8-8-1 each, Las Vegas will have head-to-head tie-breaker.

NFC East
Dallas clinched the division.
Washington will have tie-breakers over Philadelphia on division record.


NFC North
Green Bay clinched the division.

NFC South
Tie-breakers between New Orleans vs Atlanta will go to Atlanta if Atlanta wins or ties the h-t-h clash in week 18, or if New Orleans wins the h-t-h- clash in week 18 to New Orleans on division record.

NFC West
Tie-breakers between LA Rams and Arizona will go to Arizona on division record. For second place, Arizona has head-to-head over San Francisco.



Scenarios per team

Kansas City
division champion
win + Tennessee loss/tie -> #1 seed
tie + Tennessee loss -> #1 seed
Tennessee has head-to-head tie-breaker over Kansas City

Tennessee
win -> division champion
tie + Indianapolis loss/tie -> division champion
tie + Indianapolis win -> playoffs
loss + Indianapolis loss -> division champion
loss + Indianapolis win/tie + 3 of 4 from: Miami loss/tie, Baltimore loss/tie, LA Chargers loss/tie, Las Vegas loss/tie -> playoffs
Tennessee has tie-breakers over Indianapolis (see above)

Cincinnati
win -> division champion
tie + Baltimore loss/tie -> division champion
tie + Baltimore win + Miami loss/tie + LA Chargers loss/tie + Las Vegas loss/tie -> playoffs
loss + Baltimore loss + Pittsburgh loss/tie + Cleveland loss/tie -> division champion
Cincinnati has tie-breakers over Baltimore and Pittsburgh, but not over Cleveland (see above)

Buffalo
win + at least 3 of 4 from: Miami loss/tie, Baltimore loss/tie, LA Chargers loss/tie, Las Vegas loss/tie -> playoffs
tie + at least 3 of 4 from: Miami loss, Baltimore loss, LA Chargers loss, Las Vegas loss + Pittsburgh loss/tie -> playoffs
Buffalo cannot clinch division with win + New England loss

Indianapolis
win (vs Las Vegas) + 2 of 3 from: Miami loss/tie, Baltimore loss/tie, LA Chargers loss/tie -> playoffs
tie (vs Las Vegas) + Miami loss + Baltimore loss + LA Chargers loss -> playoffs

New England
win + 1 of 2 from: Miami loss/tie, Las Vegas loss/tie -> playoffs
tie + at least 3 of 4 from: Miami loss, Baltimore loss/tie, LA Chargers loss/tie, Las Vegas loss -> playoffs
New England cannot clinch division with win + Buffalo loss


Miami
cannot clinch wild card in week 17

Baltimore
cannot clinch wild card in week 17

LA Chargers
cannot clinch wild card in week 17

Las Vegas
cannot clinch wild card in week 17


Green Bay
win + Dallas loss/tie + 1 of 2 from: LA Rams loss/tie, Tampa Bay loss/tie -> #1 seed
tie + Dallas loss + 1 of 2 from: LA Rams loss, Tampa Bay loss -> #1 seed

Dallas
division champion

LA Rams
qualified for playoffs
win + Arizona loss/tie -> division champion
tie + Arizona loss -> division champion
Arizona can still get tie-breakers over LA Rams (see above)

Tampa Bay
division champion

Arizona
qualified for playoffs

San Francisco
win + New Orleans loss/tie -> playoffs
win + Philadelphia loss -> playoffs
tie + New Orleans loss + Minnesota loss/tie + Atlanta loss/tie -> playoffs
San Francisco has head-to-head over any combination of Philadelphia, Minnesota and Atlanta. But if New Orleans gets involved, conference record will be the tie-breaker (which will go against San Francisco), which then will be broken on strength of victory in New Orleans' favor. If the later was for the first wild card, then San Francisco will get the second wild card based on their head-to-head sweep.

Philadelphia
win + Minnesota loss/tie + New Orleans loss/tie -> playoffs
tie + Minnesota loss + New Orleans loss + Atlanta loss/tie -> playoffs


Edit Dec 30th: The NFL website incorrectly lists the LA Chargers and Las Vegas ahead of Baltimore, apparently they forgot to use the back from the start logic in the tie-breaking
I forgot to check and write the tie to qualify scenarios for San Francisco and Philadelphia, I also missed the Cincinnati tie to qualify scenario

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Hmm... that must have been quite the quarterback room in San Diego back when Rivers was drafted and learning from Brees. Some things teammates probably shouldn't share, though I'm sure there's a Dan Jenkins novel somewhere that makes it all work.

Should the league do more, joking aside, to ensure that each game is a quality product? The Saints may miss the playoffs because of this loss. I don't know how you change things to avoid this kind of situation, but it doesn't seem right to put a guy like Book in a place where he's going to fail.

Quarterbacks are asked to do so much. Even an experienced guy who took his team to the AFC championship not that long ago couldn't step in instead of Book because playbooks are so complex. Brees might have been tempted because he knows the basics of the Saints offense, but I'm sure Rivers was not.

I don't think there's much they can do. It's a rare situation right now because of the Omicron surge that knocks 20 guys out of lineups for 5-10 days. They made the first 2-3 months of the season without a problem.

[henry296]

Book wasn't good, but that offensive line somewhat made the Steelers line look acceptable.

[Ksyrup]

Between practice squad QBs, multiple starters out, all of the college bowl game cancellations, and then in the NBA, teams down to 8 players most of whom are meeting each other for the first time on the bus ride to the game, sports was obviously caught completely unprepared for another round of Covid. I think they all thought last year was going to be the worst of it and that they could deal with Covid positives with punitive measures (forfeits, etc.), but with a new strain that everyone is getting, that went out the window and they are struggling to keep things going. I mean, they are playing, but the games are mostly shit with a number of people playing who are like replacement/scab level quality. It sucks.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Drake

If it means anything, as a longtime Colts fan, there's a 50/50 chance that they win out or they drop the next two games to the teams they're supposed to beat.

(I let myself get optimistic and *hoped* for a 3-1 over the last 4 games, figuring they'd lose to either Arizona or New England. Winning both of those games has me in a bit of a panic.)

The team seems to be getting hit hard by covid and Wentz is reportedly unvaccinated. I think the Colts dropping their last two games is becoming a real possibility.

[Ksyrup]

And Sam Ehlinger it is for Indy this weekend...

[NobodyHere]

Yeah if you aren't vaccinated then you can't claim you're doing all you can to help your team win.

[Ksyrup]

Well, now they are saying Wentz might be able to play with the new 5 day testing protocol. So the question is how did they know what the change in protocols was going to be so that they tested him in time? Interesting.

[Ksyrup]

And on a completely separate note, I just read that Jeff Dixkerson, an ESPN Chicago reporter, passed away from cancer today. His wife died of cancer 2 years ago. They have an 11 year old son. Damn...

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Well, now they are saying Wentz might be able to play with the new 5 day testing protocol. So the question is how did they know what the change in protocols was going to be so that they tested him in time? Interesting.

Unvaccinated players are tested every day. So, he was tested today and positive today?

[GrantDawg]

Goodell just announced John Madden has passed away.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

Unvaccinated players are tested every day. So, he was tested today and positive today?

I don't know. I saw something about players only be tested at certain points and that under the old protocols he wouldn't have been tested yet.

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I don't know. I saw something about players only be tested at certain points and that under the old protocols he wouldn't have been tested yet.

I looked it up to be sure.

[Ksyrup]

Ha!

On a college sideline where he belongs https://t.co/4U5BbzpTqq

— Rodd Baxley (@RoddBaxley) December 30, 2021

[spleen1015]

No game tonight. I'm bummed.

[Ksyrup]

Kirk Cousins tests positive, out versus Packers. I believe he's another anti-vaxx guy.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Kirk Cousins tests positive, out versus Packers. I believe he's another anti-vaxx guy.

very publicly so

[Ryche]

No idea what the Vikings do on Sunday. As much as I want to see their 3rd round pick Kellen Mond, a southern kid starting his first game in Green Bay in single digit temperatures is far from ideal.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Ryche

No idea what the Vikings do on Sunday.

They basically just forfeit. That's more or less how this works. Whether it's an unprepared rookie or some hobo off the street who doesn't know the playbook, that's what you have to do now.

This is mostly on Cousins, of course. But some measure of it has to be on the team as well. He made it widely known he was willing to take this exact risk to hurt the team out of his own principles. That team knew they could well be in this position, and surely could have made efforts to have their own Joe Flacco or Gardner Minshew or whomever at the ready.

The whole situation definitely sucks (not just as a matter of health and humanity but as a matter of competition), but it's part of the calculus at this point.

[QuikSand]

...and if Sean Mannion counts as their "solid Plan B guy" then that's that. Hope he can play a bit.

[Ksyrup]

I saw something on Twitter about Mond also being unvaxxed, so if they shared the same QB room, Vikings may be down even further. But surely they kept their 2 unvaxxed QBs separate...?

[jbergey22]

Well Mannion is terrible but plenty of vaccinated players have missed games as well. Im not sure we can blame it entirely on not being vaccinated.

Most of the NBA is vaccinated and numerous teams are having a hard time fielding 8 man rosters. Omi is a different sort of beast it appears.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Next week the Bears and Giants play in one of the most meaningless games in NFL history.

It's the crucial game in the strength of victory tie-breaker between the Eagles and Vikings. The Vikings secure tie-breakers over the Eagles if the Bears win, otherwise the Eagles are technically still able to catch up if 14 of the remaining 27 games all fall into their direction.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

But surely they kept their 2 unvaxxed QBs separate...?

[cuervo72]

Heh.

[Jstraub]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

They basically just forfeit. That's more or less how this works. Whether it's an unprepared rookie or some hobo off the street who doesn't know the playbook, that's what you have to do now.

This is mostly on Cousins, of course. But some measure of it has to be on the team as well. He made it widely known he was willing to take this exact risk to hurt the team out of his own principles. That team knew they could well be in this position, and surely could have made efforts to have their own Joe Flacco or Gardner Minshew or whomever at the ready.

The whole situation definitely sucks (not just as a matter of health and humanity but as a matter of competition), but it's part of the calculus at this point.

Honestly, I kind of enjoy this new stochastic wrinkle these "Covid inactives" are playing in the late season. Its like someone took a dice throw to remove anywhere from 0 -12 players for a given week. Could be scrubs or stars; zero-shits given. If a player sits out a week, he has a greater, yet not absolute chance of being active in the next week. Players that test positive, miss their game (s) are then safe from this for 90 days.

Come to think of it... This is basically the "influenza" injury in FOF; nice work Jim. I cant recall the last time I has this happen to my FOF team.

As a side note A. Rodgers' 90 day window is 12 days before the super bowl on or around February 1st and probably right in the depths of peak Omicron spikes. At that point he is subject to testing again. This will start to become bigger news if the packers keep advancing.

[NobodyHere]

Dear Rams,

You're suppose to start fights with the other team, not with other teammates.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by MIJB#19

Playoffs scenarios for week 17

Indianapolis
win (vs Las Vegas) + 2 of 3 from: Miami loss/tie, Baltimore loss/tie, LA Chargers loss/tie -> playoffs
tie (vs Las Vegas) + Miami loss + Baltimore loss + LA Chargers loss -> playoffs

After spending a lot of time on further research on all the tie-breakers between all the various teams (especially in the AFC), I have to agree with the NFL website's assessment that the Colts this weekend actually have a win = in scenario.

If they win today, they cannot lose tie-breakers to any other pursuing teams than the Ravens. The Dolphins-Patriots week 18 clash will help eliminate the loser of that game from the Colts' competition. But that is a just today scenario, a loss vs Las Vegas will complicate things for the Colts.

Scenarios for week 18 will be so much easier than week 17, with much less remaining possibilities. At the very least, I ended up with having a lot of fun in creating a neat Excel sheet.

[AlexB]

Tua’s struggling today. Poor conditions, but he is having the most difficulty of anyone on the field

[AlexB]

Ouch. That Titan’s foot was not pointing in the right direction

[JonInMiddleGA]

Scary collision for TE Ricky Seals-Jones. Crashes into an end zone cameraman but then his head collides with the padded wall. Player carted off, cameraman left under his own power eventually.

[AlexB]

Great call refs. False start missed, and then the Titans WR grabs the DBs jersey, falls to the ground and gets a PI call

[Ksyrup]

WTF are the Giants doing? Literally 3 guys on offense. QB has thrown 2 passes - 1 INT - and 2 RBs with 26 carries and the lone reception.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

WTF are the Giants doing? Literally 3 guys on offense. QB has thrown 2 passes - 1 INT - and 2 RBs with 26 carries and the lone reception.

Dave Gettleman once said the teams that runs the ball the most in the NFL win a lot. They currently have 6 more runs than the Bears so they're sticking to the script.

[JPhillips]

Arians publically defends Antonio Brown and now Brown throws a fit, strips out of his pads and shirt, and runs off of the field.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Arians publically defends Antonio Brown and now Brown throws a fit, strips out of his pads and shirt, and runs off of the field.

wow the guy is messed up. And so are the Bucs losing to the Jets in the third quarter

[sabotai]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

WTF are the Giants doing? Literally 3 guys on offense. QB has thrown 2 passes - 1 INT - and 2 RBs with 26 carries and the lone reception.

If you have seen what the Giants look like when they try to pass...

Glennon has dropped back to pass 6 times. 2 completed passes, 1 INT, 2 strip sack fumbles.

[sabotai]

7th pass play for the Giants offense, a bad snap in shotgun formation and Glennon nearly throws a 3rd pick

[Ksyrup]

I'm fascinated by the Giants today. Through 3 quarters, 4 guys have touched the ball. Five if you count the center, I guess. I mean, try a couple WR/TE screens, end arounds, something.

And no, I haven't watched the game so I understand they suck but they don't appear to even be trying to get the ball to anyone.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Arians publically defends Antonio Brown and now Brown throws a fit, strips out of his pads and shirt, and runs off of the field.

Antonio Brown just took off his uniform and left the game. This is real. pic.twitter.com/wrp2xvgVhE

— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) January 2, 2022

[albionmoonlight]

Arians is a good coach, but he does not strike me as the coach I’d want with a melting-down locker room. Will be interesting to see how that goes.

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I'm fascinated by the Giants today. Through 3 quarters, 4 guys have touched the ball. Five if you count the center, I guess. I mean, try a couple WR/TE screens, end arounds, something.

And no, I haven't watched the game so I understand they suck but they don't appear to even be trying to get the ball to anyone.

Just protecting their draft position?

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Arians is a good coach, but he does not strike me as the coach I’d want with a melting-down locker room. Will be interesting to see how that goes.

They had the opportunity to ditch him after the fake Covid card, ut they didn't.

[Ksyrup]

Lost in the Antonio Brown debacle is the overall game debacle for TB.

[Ksyrup]

Heh.

Robert Quinn just broke the Bears single season sack record on Mike Glennon. He also once broke the Rams single season record on Mike Glennon.

— chris long (@JOEL9ONE) January 2, 2022