The Stock Market thread

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Kodos

I think our Discover savings account is at 3.75% interest (or something in that ballpark) if you want a more traditional banking option.

Apple is breaking up with Goldman Sachs and were going to migrate off our short-lived Apple savings experiment.

It's down to Discover or Capital One 360 ...

Both allow joint accounts (which Apple did not, weirdest thing ever)
Both have checking & savings accounts
Both have no-fee ATM access using Allpoint (and others)
Both have relatively high savings account interest rates

Still need to research about overseas, think Cap 360 may have the edge here.

The plan is to use Discover/Cap 360 and maybe only keep 1 checking account with WellsFargo. Daughter uses WF and we do have a WF lock box so will need to stay a client.

[Edward64]

Great day today.

Jerome is done with rate hikes and supposedly 3 rate cuts planned next year. I'm glad we are (seemingly) past the last 18-20 months.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Check it out. Pretty cool presentation, I can definitely see potential.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TX9qSaGXFyg

It's too bulky right now but I'm sure it'll get more streamlined.

On schedule to come out early next year.

A couple recent articles, basically they were impressed and, while the initial price tag is not for everybody, good chance to shake things up. I'm really hoping for a big success, the AR/VR lost a lot of momentum with the Meta crash. I want a "Ready Player One" experience in the next 10-20 years.

Seeing your own spatial video on Vision Pro is an immersive trip – and I highly recommend it | TechRadar

I still don't know if the Apple Vision Pro is for everyone, but the more I use it, and the more I learn about it, the more I'm convinced that Apple is set to trigger a seismic shift in our computing experience. Not everyone will end up buying Vision Pro, but most of us will feel its impact.

Apple's next big thing is so good it has people on the verge of tears | Macworld

As Wong notes, there’s no real way to show how good the Vision Pro experience is through a website. It’s the kind of thing you have to try, and it’s clearly better to try it with your own media.

[Edward64]

Sweet, sweet day … week … and month. Great start to the year.

[Flasch186]

There’s a local social media guy around here promoting his company and their financial advisory and advice.

When asked, of course he has no license except life learning and tilts his nose in your direction.

Being in real estate I absolutely hate that licenses are meaningless in the age of social media. The 2.5 decades of experience one earns in their line of work is trumped by slick marketing and the state/federal does nothing to enforce the licensure requirements and everything is ‘gray’. 🤦‍♂️


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[Edward64]

Not markets related but financials related so ...

I've starting to "optimize, consolidate, close" our various credit cards and do better with cashback and travel benefits.

As part of my research, I recently read about the $0 annual fee BILT credit card which allows you to pay rent (not mortgage) with the card. Essentially, you tell BILT where to send a check or ACH to so the landlord/apt won't care. You get 1x points. It'll build up over time and you can use the points with their travel partners. At least you're getting some benefits from the rent payment.

I've asked my son to check it out. If you're renting (or have a kid that is renting), may be worth your while.


Bilt Rewards

[Ksyrup]

Yes that's a big one for the millenials. Not to be too much of a points/rewards geek, but the doubly effective thing about Bilt is that it's the ONLY card for which American Airlines is a transfer partner. Now, you can transfer AA miles to OneWorld partners, but credit card to AA transfers, Bilt is it.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Yes that's a big one for the millenials. Not to be too much of a points/rewards geek, but the doubly effective thing about Bilt is that it's the ONLY card for which American Airlines is a transfer partner. Now, you can transfer AA miles to OneWorld partners, but credit card to AA transfers, Bilt is it.

Are you more Team Cash back or Team Travel?

I'm struggling with that. I think wife is Cash and I'm Travel.

[Ksyrup]

Team Travel all day. Mainly, because I have the time to research best redemptions to make it worthwhile. It's become my primary emptynester hobby. Just for 2024, we're travelling like I make 3 times my actual salary, and while the entire trips aren't free, I'm paying a fraction for the airfare/hotels.

In 10 days we're going to New Zealand and Australia, flying on a Delta SM deal and staying with IHG points at 2 Intercontinentals and then 1 night at a Park Hyatt. In May we're going to London on a combination of Delta SM and CC points transferred to Air Canada for lie flat seats for 4 days and staying at a Intercontinental on IHG points and taking a 4 day cruise to Netherlands and Belgium. Then in September, we're going to SD/ND and I'm using a Delta companion certificate for airfare and IHG points to stay at a few HIEs.

If we tone it back to less luxury, we can easily afford multiple international trips in economy with great points redemption deals. You just have to be flexible with dates, consider repositioning flights if you don't live near a big city, do your homework, and look for flights (especially) right when award space opens up. I booked our AC lie flat seats the morning those dates came open for booking and got 2 nonstop flights in business class from Toronto to LHR for about 50K points per person each way (I think the total was around 220K points). We're taking Delta to reposition to Toronto.

I subscribe to several services that alert for rewards and cash deals for flights (Thrifty Traveler, Roame) and use sites like PointsYeah, Point.Me, etc., to constantly search availability for certain trips so I know what to be looking for if/when we decide we want to go someplace in particular. For NZ, I got alerted to a great Delta deal and it's costing me just 92K SM and $189 for round trip flights for both of us from Cincy to Auckland and back.

But, it's a lot of work, and sometimes the redemptions for what you want just might not be there. It helps if you're openminded about where/when to go and take advantage of deals you come across. It's a lot harder to decide, for instance, right now that you want to go to Italy in May on certain dates that are already set in stone and think you're going to find a great deal using points.

[Edward64]

Thanks for the list of apps you use.

Wife and I have just about revamped our credit card lineup. Basically, we are in Team Travel.

We've committed to the Capital One ecosystem with Venture X and Savor One for all the household stuff and travel. We've also got our default 2% cards that we use for discretionary spending. After we build up the miles (she'll apply for the regular Venture card later this year and get the 75k miles) I'm thinking we start focusing building up hotel points.

I had the Chase Sapphire Preferred but downgraded so I won't have to pay the annual fee. After we've done what we need to with the C1 cards, we'll probably start seriously on the Chase ecosystem.

re: banking. Still in the process of moving from WF to Capital One but should be done this month. Looking forward to earning 4.3% interest vs .10%.

[NobodyHere]

SP500 should hit 5000 today.

If we can continue to get at least historical returns (ie 10%/year) from the market I'll hit my minimum leanfire number by late summer.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

SP500 should hit 5000 today.

If we can continue to get at least historical returns (ie 10%/year) from the market I'll hit my minimum leanfire number by late summer.

I remember you telling me your plans were "delayed" because of the SO. I guess that's all been resolved now.

Don't forget to account for healthcare in your leanfire. Obamacare subsidies work well but it has a minimum income level to qualify for the subsidies (e.g. if below that level, the assumption is Medicaid which you may or may not qualify for).

[Edward64]

There was a time when Apple earnings led/moved the markets. This seems to have shifted to Nvidia now.

I'm not convinced Nvidia will be as dominant as Apple and/or for as long (e.g. 15+ years) but the potential is there. It'd be scary to think what would happen if Nvidia wasn't restricted in selling its best stuff to China.

Nvidia shares jumped more than 12% in premarket trade on Thursday after the chip giant posted bumper earnings that beat Wall Street estimates.

The U.S. tech giant posted revenue of $22.10 billion for its fiscal fourth quarter, a rise of 265% year-on-year, while net income surged by 769%, as the company continues to see a boost from excitement over artificial intelligence.

Nvidia chips are used to train the huge AI models such as those developed by Microsoft and Meta

[NobodyHere]

I'll have what the stock market is having today.

[Lathum]

Whoa.

I don't check often because it's not like real money, but just checked my portfolio and it's nice to see a 5 figure gain.

Gonna get me some of those sweet gold Trump sneakers.

[GrantDawg]

I always wonder how much of the analysis of why stocks are up or down is actually factual or just completely pulled out of finance reporters ass. Today "Stock prices are up because of better than expected unemployment numbers." Next week "Stock prices higher because jobless claims increased." There are always a reason, and they seem contradictory from day to day. I guess "stock prices are higher because more people bought stock today" isn't much of an analysis.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Whoa.

I don't check often because it's not like real money, but just checked my portfolio and it's nice to see a 5 figure gain.

Gonna get me some of those sweet gold Trump sneakers.

Pick up some Trump NFTs while you're at it.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I always wonder how much of the analysis of why stocks are up or down is actually factual or just completely pulled out of finance reporters ass. Today "Stock prices are up because of better than expected unemployment numbers." Next week "Stock prices higher because jobless claims increased." There are always a reason, and they seem contradictory from day to day. I guess "stock prices are higher because more people bought stock today" isn't much of an analysis.

Specifically for today, it was primarily based on Nvidia's better than expected "already high expected" earnings.

AI (and all things AI) is the new buzz word driving the markets since 2H 2023.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Specifically for today, it was primarily based on Nvidia's better than expected "already high expected" earnings.

AI (and all things AI) is the new buzz word driving the markets since 2H 2023.

I'm talking in general, not just specifically for today.

[JPhillips]

MAGAs are telling me the stock market went up because in a year Trump will be the president.

[Edward64]

I updated my investments tracker xls and we have officially recovered back to our high from Jan 2022. Long 2 years.

And our Zillow house price is highest it's ever been also. Interestingly, we've see 3 houses for sale in our neighborhood. That's probably a high in a while.

So, not too bad right now.

[Kodos]

Yeah, we're at a new high with our retirement funds. Not sure about the house, but I think it is up too.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Kodos

Yeah, we're at a new high with our retirement funds. Not sure about the house, but I think it is up too.

NYT says current bull market started Oct 2022.

I understand why but for me, it starts now (e.g. after I've recouped the previous 2 years losses).

[Ksyrup]

All my Trumper mom can say when I point out how well her retirement funds are doing is that this is just a false bubble based on Biden administration lies.

They've actually gotten the benefit both ways from the economy - when they sold the house and didn't need to immediately sink most of the proceeds into a new house because of my dad's accident, we took $500K and put it into a 6 month CD that's going to earn them a free $25K, AND the rest of their invested funds are on fire.

[Edward64]

Congrats to the Millennials who won the lottery.

Many millennials are currently grasping in frustration at long-held American Dreams like homeownership, a steady job and an affordable cost of living. However, over the next twenty years, Millennials are poised to inherit some $90 trillion of assets and become the richest generation in history – but only the ones who already come from affluent families, potentially deepening wealth inequality further.

Between now and 2044 in the US, the Silent Generation and Baby Boomers are expected to hand over the reins of their significant wealth to Millennials, according to The Wealth Report, a periodic report from global property consultant Knight Frank.

But whether you’re a Millennial on the receiving end of that wealth transfer is largely a lottery of birth.

FWIW. My kids are Gen Z. I read somewhere that next Gen begins in 2012 as Gen Alpha.

[GrantDawg]

My daughter is at the tail end of the Millennials and my son is Gen Z. Neither of them are winning the inheritance lottery. To be fair, neither did I. My wife will at least inherit a good bit of land and a little bit of money from her dad. Nothing super valuable.

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[Ksyrup]

As usual, Gen X gets skipped.

My kids are both Gen Z.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

As usual, Gen X gets skipped.

When I read the article, same thought crossed my mind.

I wonder if Gen Z will get screwed because Gen X is a smaller group.

[Ksyrup]

And I expect, as time goes on, each generation is saving less and less so there will be less wealth to pass on - except at the extreme top end, of course.

[Edward64]

Crummy week but could have been worse, so not going to complain too much.

Sounds good to me on below news. Supposedly this will reduce the cost of buying a house, I'm not convinced but good for buyers & sellers, not so good for realtors.

The 6% commission on buying or selling a home is gone after Realtors association agrees to seismic settlement | CNN Business

The 6% commission on buying or selling a home is gone after Realtors association agrees to seismic settlement

By some estimates, real estate commissions are expected to fall 25% to 50%, according to TD Cowen Insights. This will open up opportunities for alternative models of selling real estate that already exist but don’t have much market share, including flat-fee and discount brokerages.

[Flasch186]

It will not

Sellers will pocket the monies as cost of housing is based on supply and demand

I’ve been in the industry 30 years if you need to call me an expert

This was absolute bs in that commissions have always been negotiable and if I charge you 5% to sell your home it’s 5% whether or not I choose to share my 5% I earn for an eventual closing or keep it by finding a buyer myself

Tbf though I’m an independent boutique brokerage so if other big brokerages didn’t do it my way I have no idea.

I’m not going to get sucked into the bank and forth with you though but I would argue in an expert on 2 things: real estate and live streaming baseball games


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[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

I’m not going to get sucked into the bank and forth with you though but I would argue in an expert on 2 things: real estate and live streaming baseball games

Just ignore me and I promise I'll ignore you.

[Flasch186]

You don’t own threads

Just be kind to people


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[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

You don’t own threads

Just be kind to people

Easy enough for you to tell me to leave a thread and go somewhere else. What oblivious hypocrisy.

And be kind to people? Sure, unless people like you initiate the attack, insults and witty sarcasm.

[Flasch186]

To go to another thread you specifically made to move to when you go off on tangents with people


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[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

To go to another thread you specifically made to move to when you go off on tangents with people

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So you do tell people to go to another thread when you don't like that person or what that person is saying? Except in that case it's okay because you're the one doing it, the tattletale, the self-proclaimed gatekeeper? Oblivious hypocrisy.

I've said it before and will say it again. Completely ignore me, ignore my posts, don't refer to my posts, not make smarky comments about me. And I'll do the same with you.

[Flasch186]

I think I asked when it’s appropriate for you to move your debates to the other thread and you got very very upset and began attacking buy I could be wrong

Like this

Is this when we should move this back and forth to the other thread?

When is it time to move your debates to the thread you created to do so?


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[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

I think I asked when it’s appropriate for you to move your debates to the other thread and you got very very upset and began attacking buy I could be wrong

Like this

Is this when we should move this back and forth to the other thread?

When is it time to move your debates to the thread you created to do so?

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I'll just refer to below link for your answer.

Front Office Football Central - View Single Post - Biden's Immigration Reform

But thanks. I'll keep below quote when you bring it up again.

Originally Posted by Flasch186

You don’t own threads

Just be kind to people

[Flasch186]

You view it as unkind to ask if a debate should be moved to the other thread?


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[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

You view it as unkind to ask if a debate should be moved to the other thread?

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There were 2 parts to your comment.

Hopefully, I've answered the first part satisfactorily as to what that other thread was for. Definitely, not when you think it should be moved there (aka self-proclaimed gatekeeper and tattletale) but when it becomes "extended & contentious Discussions" which the last incident with immigration did not do when you inserted your self-righteous self.

On the second point on "unkind", I thought it was self-evident. But since it wasn't, let me quote your witty sarcasm.

Originally Posted by Flasch186

No offense to all but when the conversation turns into the dance with Edward about what he said or didn’t say that’s exactly when it’s supposed to go to the other thread so he can Bob and weave and all thus saving threads from devolving into the same.

[Flasch186]

Back to the actual point that I’m an expert in:

There will be no meaningful drop in sales prices due to this, imo as sellers either pocket a small gain or they are in agreement that the amount offered to increase exposure and bring more buyers to a competition to buy their home is valuable +1 versus the potential savings of paying a cooperating broker nothing. At our brokerage we do serve as an auctioneer on many sales and can easily show how 2-3% dangled out there brings far more than that in escalations, counter offerings, and minimal repair requests due to transparent demand showed to the eventual home winner.

Home prices are affected by supply and demand along with interest rates/affordability

What will happen imo is that a ton of agents will leave the business (adding to incredible amounts of people looking for work [so maybe some foreclosures]) consolidating power into some of the largest players who will then wield substantial pricing power for the services. There’ll be alternative options as there have always been but they’ll struggle to gain traction without capital to advertise the alternative (since compression requires more volume) unless a giant financial beast unleashes one on the industry which I think could happen from Zillow, Amazon, Google or Apple. Whether doj turns their sights on that sort of behemoth is unknown but I have my doubts that they would.

It’ll be extraordinarily hard for fha, first time home buyers, and va buyers to buy a home and not get screwed (for some amount) by an agent representing the seller as a fiduciary.


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[GrantDawg]

Are you a buyers agent, Flasch?

[Edward64]

I think I may buy a little DWAC shares in anticipation of it/Truth Social going public (and changing to DJT). I still don't understand how this SPAC workaround-the-rules is still legit, but apparently it is. It dropped by -13.7% today but back up +4.4% after hours.

Really no idea if I'll win or lose, but can't be worse than my Bumble pick. Anyone else the least bit interested?

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/22/trum...rger-vote.html

Shareholders in Digital World Acquisition Corp. voted to approve a merger with Donald Trump’s social media company.

The tie-up could net the former Republican president an eventual windfall of $3 billion or more.

The vote by DWAC shareholders comes 2½ years after that so-called SPAC announced plans to merge with Trump Media & Technology Group, which owns the Truth Social app platform.

EDIT:

Someone on WSB did a pretty decent due diligence. TL : DR who the hell knows.

I think I'll sit this one out next week. Trump has a lockout period of 6 months and could dilute it then (and my guess he will). So I'll wait and see.

Blocked

[Lathum]

Trump media going public today or tomorrow. 95% of the trading is individuals according to an interview I’m listening to. A lot of people are going to take a bath.

[Edward64]

Well, shows you what a stock picking genius I am.

DWAC/DJT up +35% yesterday. In the morning, it was up +5% and I was tempted to buy but stayed away.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Well, shows you what a stock picking genius I am.

DWAC/DJT up +35% yesterday. In the morning, it was up +5% and I was tempted to buy but stayed away.

I wouldn't touch that ponzi scheme. It is being propped up by the Maga cult and it's gonna crash big time. Only 5% of investors are the blackrocks of the world.

Everything he touches goes to shit. This is no different.

[albionmoonlight]

Instead of "investing" in DJT, you may as well bet on March Madness.

You might time it right and leave other suckers holding the bag. Or you might be one of the suckers. But it is all random. No one is pretending that the stock price has anything to do with the value of a 4th-tier social media site.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Instead of "investing" in DJT, you may as well bet on March Madness.

You might time it right and leave other suckers holding the bag. Or you might be one of the suckers. But it is all random. No one is pretending that the stock price has anything to do with the value of a 4th-tier social media site.

It's momentum, it's perceived future value (Trump wins), it is speculation, it is gambling. Lots of examples where fundamental analysis of a stock hasn't mattered much based on conventional wisdom or methods.

I do believe ultimately some suckers will be left holding the bag. But there'll be a period where some will make a lot of money. It will be interesting to see how all of this plays out.

In the meantime, I guess I'll wallow in my measly 20-25% gains in NVidia when I bought in at the 700s level earlier this year.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Trump media going public today or tomorrow. 95% of the trading is individuals according to an interview I’m listening to. A lot of people are going to take a bath.

I wish I knew how to short a stock.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I wish I knew how to short a stock.

I stay away from options trading. It literally is a gateway drug to worse things.

Source: see r/wallstreetbets


I see some of the posts about profits and I get jealous. I see some of their losses and cringe.