Werewolf XXVI: The Thing - GAME OVER! THINGS WIN!!!

[Raiders Army]

I wouldn't go that far, cronin. I think you assume too much.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

I wouldn't go that far, cronin. I think you assume too much.

Perhaps. I just like to keep things simple. Don't expect David Ortiz to bunt, that sort of thing.

[Barkeep49]

I agree that looking at voters for me is a good place to start for tomorrow especially with the compelling case cronin has built on my behalf. Thanks! But I also agree we're at near ground 0 again tomorrow.

One correction though: While I am still leaning in that direction I have not yet unvoted Tangle and remain the first vote on him.

[Barkeep49]

Also I will be looking to finalize my decision around 8 eastern, or about an hour so as to try and avoid last minute shenanigans.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by tanglewood

RE: My late voting, I almost always vote late on lynches unless I am fairly sure of someone and even then am ususalyy willing to swap around late on. Check any of my votes in this game or previous games if you like.

It is a compelling style for a shitface though. The swapping around a lot makes it easy for you to accept less responsiblity for your vote.

[Raiders Army]

I'm out for the night. It seems as if Blade's escaped yet again. He was in the thread earlier, but saw no need to post since everyone's going with Jeebs. I hope this is worth it.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

I'm out for the night. It seems as if Blade's escaped yet again. He was in the thread earlier, but saw no need to post since everyone's going with Jeebs. I hope this is worth it.

Man I don't think I want to play with you again if Blade has turned out to be a bad guy for as long as you've said.

[tanglewood]

I'm going to stay on Blade, his actions today have just pushed him into the 'high suspicion' category for me. Jeeber, I can definitley see why he would be a target and can appreciate our two most likely clean guys voing for him being a good bet, but I just have a feeling on Blade now. I wish I could stay until the end, as I also have a (bad) feeling that tonight's vote will be suceptible to some manic vote shifting near the end, but I have to leave and won't be back 'till the morn'.

[hoopsguy]

I'm hoping to create some space with my vote if it looks like we are really close. I don't want to leave an opening for the Things to manipulate this in the last ten minutes tonight if we can help it.

Going to total the votes now ...

[path12]

I'd be OK with testing Blade if there was a movement towards him, I think the only reason he hasn't been tested yet is because CW cleared him a couple of nights back.....but now we know CW was likely bad then so who knows how valid that is.

I'm really just with Jeeber to follow Cronin's consensus idea. I don't know that he's top of my list.

[Barkeep49]

Vote count as of 2110
Jeeber - Cronin (1995), WVUFAN (2019), Anxiety (2043), Swaggs, path12, Raiders
Barkeep - mckerney (1999), King (2041)
Tanglewood - Barkeep (2004), Hoopsguy (2012), Jeeber, Blade
Blade - tangle

[hoopsguy]

At the moment (Post #2110) all votes are in with 100 minutes to the deadline:

Jeeber - Cronin (1995), WVUFAN (2019), Anxiety (2043), Swaggs (2045), path (2098), Raiders (2099)

Barkeep - mckerney (1999), King (2041)

Tanglewood - Barkeep (2004), Hoopsguy (2012), JeeberD (2071), Blade (2088)

Blade - Tanglewood (2060)


Jeebs with a 6-4 lead on Tanglewood. Or one vote change from Jeebs to a tie. I would love for King to make his way into the thread and talk about his Barkeep vote.

I'm mulling over how much credit I should be giving Tanglewood for voting for Blade instead of Jeeber, when it is clearly in his self-interest to go with the leading vote getter?

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'm mulling over how much credit I should be giving Tanglewood for voting for Blade instead of Jeeber, when it is clearly in his self-interest to go with the leading vote getter?

It is a ballsy move. Of course there is the possiblity that tangle plus 1 of either Jeeber or Blade is a bad guy in which case it becomes far less of a bold move, especially if Jeeber is also a bad guy. Just saying.

[Barkeep49]

Hoops who is lef tto vote? Anyone?

[hoopsguy]

All in - only 13 players left since we torched Coffee Warlord (16 originals - minus Qwikshot, Saldana, and Coffee).

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

The next vote we will have to start over. I would suggest we start with anybody who put votes on Barkeep in THIS vote, since at this time he's pretty much a known human.

I disagree. I've seen Barkeep as a suspect for a while, and don't take CWs clear of him as absolutely proof that he's human. It would be a calculated risk for CW to clear someone who's a thing, knowing that most everyone is probably going to think he'd never clear a thing, much like what happened today. A risk, but I don't see it as out of the realm of possibility that the Things would try to pull off. And if it is what's happened it looks like it worked perfectly.

I like blade as an option too though there's not much support there, but I think there's a better chance that Barkeep is a thing than Jeeber, so for nowmy vote will stay where it is.

[Barkeep49]

Ok so then mckerny and king: Why not weigh in on the tangle/jeeber angle? I would implore the Blade voters to do the same but they are claiming to be gone and I see mckerny in the thread now.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by mckerney

I disagree. I've seen Barkeep as a suspect for a while, and don't take CWs clear of him as absolutely proof that he's human. It would be a calculated risk for CW to clear someone who's a thing, knowing that most everyone is probably going to think he'd never clear a thing, much like what happened today. A risk, but I don't see it as out of the realm of possibility that the Things would try to pull off. And if it is what's happened it looks like it worked perfectly.

I like blade as an option too though there's not much support there, but I think there's a better chance that Barkeep is a thing than Jeeber, so for nowmy vote will stay where it is.

Except you are saying "I think there is a much better chance that it is Jeeber then tangle" at this point. I mean you have to admit it takes some real masterminds to concoct the follow scenario:
1. Have a good guy point fingers at a converted seer DURING the night cycle
2. Have a regular shitface join in strongly about what a good idea this is
3. Have the converted seer then clear the shitface joining in
4. Have the regular shitface start to help pull the vote away from it being close to it not being close against the converted seer

Damn I wish I was that smart when I was a shitface. Alas I am just a human with one hell of a good track record. I had my vote not on CW when he was innocent and on him when he was guilty. I took out a shitface singlehandedly in Day 1 and led the charge against another in Day 2. I will take my record in this game and compare it against anyone elses and come away very proud.

[path12]

I'm out till after lynch. Hoping for the double.

[hoopsguy]

mckerney, what Cronin is arguing is that Barkeep is not human because CW cleared him, but that Barkeep is human because he was Cronin's primary partner in pushing to scan Coffee yesterday. That throwing out that support so early is convincing proof that Barkeep was not looking to keep CW alive.

I come pretty close to buying this. The small part of me that protests says that there were five Things out there yesterday and it is certainly possible that one of them was early to that party. Here is where I'm taking the opposite view of this from Blade. If they were smart, they wouldn't wait to be the last 3-4 votes for CW.

[hoopsguy]

Er - Cronin isn't using "Barkeep = human because CW cleared him".
He is using "Barkeep = human because he went after CW from the outset yesterday".

Translation from thought to keyboard isn't always the best ... hope that clears up my last post which was a little confusing to me (and I wrote it).

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

mckerney, what Cronin is arguing is that Barkeep is not human because CW cleared him, but that Barkeep is human because he was Cronin's primary partner in pushing to scan Coffee yesterday. That throwing out that support so early is convincing proof that Barkeep was not looking to keep CW alive.

I come pretty close to buying this. The small part of me that protests says that there were five Things out there yesterday and it is certainly possible that one of them was early to that party. Here is where I'm taking the opposite view of this from Blade. If they were smart, they wouldn't wait to be the last 3-4 votes for CW.

It's eery how much we see eye to eye on this. One more point on Jeeber: The fact that there is no real consensus on him makes me think I'm right. If I had picked out a human, I think the Things would be all over that guy, and the score would be about 12-1. That it's as close as it is worries me, but makes me think I'm on to something.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Except you are saying "I think there is a much better chance that it is Jeeber then tangle" at this point. I mean you have to admit it takes some real masterminds to concoct the follow scenario:
1. Have a good guy point fingers at a converted seer DURING the night cycle
2. Have a regular shitface join in strongly about what a good idea this is
3. Have the converted seer then clear the shitface joining in
4. Have the regular shitface start to help pull the vote away from it being close to it not being close against the converted seer

Damn I wish I was that smart when I was a shitface. Alas I am just a human with one hell of a good track record. I had my vote not on CW when he was innocent and on him when he was guilty. I took out a shitface singlehandedly in Day 1 and led the charge against another in Day 2. I will take my record in this game and compare it against anyone elses and come away very proud.

Actually, I think it's a better chance that it's Tangle than Jeeber, but I'm not realy sold on Tangle and don't want to vote him with as close as it is and risk a tie.

Also, I honestly don't think it's that it would be that surprising of a move for the things to sacrifice the converted seer. We knew that CW was going to be tested sooner or later, and we also know that the things had to eliminate him as a threat. They couldn't afford to let CW scan one of them and then come up clean in a test, so we got a thing but one that they wanted us to have, and they come out looking like good guys in the process. What'd that leave us with vote 2 for they day? Two candidates in a split vote that can probably be manipulated by the things. So what I think happened is they sacrificed a little fish to put themselves in a better position.

I'd rather stick with my guns here than vote for someone who I don't think will give us anything, or move the vote closer to risk a tie. If I need to make a move at the deadline I will, but otherwise I'd rather vote one someone who I think will get us somewhere.

I hope I'm wrong about this and we find Jeeber is a thing if this vote holds, but I don't think we're going in the right direction after getting one of them.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

mckerney, what Cronin is arguing is that Barkeep is not human because CW cleared him, but that Barkeep is human because he was Cronin's primary partner in pushing to scan Coffee yesterday. That throwing out that support so early is convincing proof that Barkeep was not looking to keep CW alive.

I come pretty close to buying this. The small part of me that protests says that there were five Things out there yesterday and it is certainly possible that one of them was early to that party. Here is where I'm taking the opposite view of this from Blade. If they were smart, they wouldn't wait to be the last 3-4 votes for CW.

One more thought: What the Things would have tried to resist was the idea that we should have a consensus. Standard villager strategy in these games is to get a close vote, so that after the vote, you can try and pick out patterns. In this game, close votes are useless, but early on yesterday I don't know that everybody had realized that yet. This is why BK and you both look good (for today) but Jeeber looks bad. It's not so much jeebs vote that looks bad, but his attempt to undermine what turned out to be a solid strategy.

This game will be nearly impossible for the humans to win, but if we go with this strategy (of focusing on one suspect at a time), I think we might have a shot.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Er - Cronin isn't using "Barkeep = human because CW cleared him".
He is using "Barkeep = human because he went after CW from the outset yesterday".

Translation from thought to keyboard isn't always the best ... hope that clears up my last post which was a little confusing to me (and I wrote it).

And still, if they sacrificed CW like I suspect, they'd be right there accusing him to look like heroes.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by mckerney

And still, if they sacrificed CW like I suspect, they'd be right there accusing him to look like heroes.

I don't think they would play that way. I mean, maybe, but as I said before, you don't expect David Ortiz to bunt. Given the nature of this game (everybody's a suspect every day) it would make the most sense to try and keep the vote close and cause some last minute havok (see earlier votes).

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by mckerney

And still, if they sacrificed CW like I suspect, they'd be right there accusing him to look like heroes.

Well of course they sacraficed him. The question is do you really believe that the guy who made it 3-1 was part of that sacrafice?

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I don't think they would play that way. I mean, maybe, but as I said before, you don't expect David Ortiz to bunt. Given the nature of this game (everybody's a suspect every day) it would make the most sense to try and keep the vote close and cause some last minute havok (see earlier votes).

This is just my point in a different dress.

[Barkeep49]

Mckerny I would like to have you on record:

Do you agree with the statement "Jeeber is a more likely thing than tangle" as that is essentially what you are arguing here.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Mckerny I would like to have you on record:

Do you agree with the statement "Jeeber is a more likely thing than tangle" as that is essentially what you are arguing here.

Sorry missed the post where you responded to this.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by mckerney

If I need to make a move at the deadline I will, but otherwise I'd rather vote one someone who I think will get us somewhere.

I mean you realize you want to "get us somewhere" by voting for somebody who isn't realistically going to be lynched? If you move your vote to Tangle then if somebody defects from Jeeber we still don't have a tie. On the otherhand if you vote for me, then if one person switches we have a tie.

[hoopsguy]

I agree that if we had a Thing here there is no way that this would be a runaway. They just can't afford to lose two of their members, even if they are getting a conversion.

Day 1: starts 14-2, Jeeber tested and clean (14-2)
Night 1: conversion + night kill (presumed Thing) = 13-2
Day 2/1: 13-2, Thing Saldana tested and killed = 13-1
Day 2/2: 13-1, Dubb tested and clean = 13-1
Night 2: conversion = 12-2
Day 3: 12-2, Coffee Warlord tested and clean = 12-2
Night 3: conversion = 11-3
Day 4: 11-3, Dubb tested (Duke invoked) and clean = 11-3
Night 4: conversion = 10-4
Day 5: 10-4, Anxiety tested and clean = 10-4
Night 5: conversion = 9-5
Day 6/1: 9-5, Thing Coffee Warlord tested and killed = 9-4
Day 6/2: 9-4, ????

So we are either looking at 8-4 or 8-5 going into tomorrow morning, assuming they have been able to successfully convert each and every night. It makes a very big difference, as it gives us guaranteed one more day of game - with the chance of registering double-kills we can still turn this one around.

Even with a miss today we have at least two more days to play. If we do end up with a kill here then I'll start to believe we can actually win this.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Do you agree with the statement "Jeeber is a more likely thing than tangle" as that is essentially what you are arguing here.

False.

[Barkeep49]

I find it kind of insane that the top 4 posters have over half the posts in a 2100 post thread with 13 still active players.

[Barkeep49]

Since mckerny seems to have left I think it's time to start to talk about where we go from here. I see two orders of discussion we could start now.

1. Who are likely converts tonight?
2. What does it tell us if Jeebers innocent? What if he comes out guilty?

Ok and I guess a 3rd point:
How do we build consensus on a runaway candidate for the next two days? This was VITAL towards nailing CW today as it gave the shitfaces no room to work in. I am not sure if it was as useful in this vote, especially if Jeeber comes up guilty. But otherwise I worry about the scientists ability to have enough votes against a bad guy.

[hoopsguy]

1. I've got thoughts on this - do you really want to discuss it prior to conversion? Or at least prior to results tonight, as that should have an impact on their decision as well.

2. Innocent - that Jeebs didn't post very well yesterday. That Tanglewood becomes a more serious suspect, particularly if there is late voting action that helps him.

2. Guilty - that Cronin was golden today. Nudge up the trust of everyone else who voted for him a little bit (would be at most one Thing in that group)

[hoopsguy]

BTW, it is getting late enough that I'm going to move my vote to prevent a tie. Not sure that late action is coming to change the outcome, but if it is I want it to take more than one vote.


UNVOTE TANGLEWOOD
VOTE JEEBERD

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

BTW, it is getting late enough that I'm going to move my vote to prevent a tie. Not sure that late action is coming to change the outcome, but if it is I want it to take more than one vote.


UNVOTE TANGLEWOOD
VOTE JEEBERD

Hoops we're nowhere close to having a tie. I think you should have your vote where you want it at this point. We will look askance at anyone who tries a Jeeber to Tangles move.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

1. I've got thoughts on this - do you really want to discuss it prior to conversion? Or at least prior to results tonight, as that should have an impact on their decision as well.

Fair enough on this though I don't think the outcome effects converts too much at this point.

2. Innocent - that Jeebs didn't post very well yesterday. That Tanglewood becomes a more serious suspect, particularly if there is late voting action that helps him.

How many things you think we have in this case? I say we're still likely looking at 2 or 3.

2. Guilty - that Cronin was golden today. Nudge up the trust of everyone else who voted for him a little bit (would be at most one Thing in that group)

I say there are 2 things on him if he's guilty. I'd place prety strong odds that there are at least two in this scenario.

[hoopsguy]

Barkeep, it was 6-4. One person moving from Jeeber to Tangle creates a tie prior to me moving it.

[hoopsguy]

I disagree on two Things (if Jeebs is a Thing) - that would be splitting their numbers evenly, which would only make sense if both leading vote-getters are Things.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Barkeep, it was 6-4. One person moving from Jeeber to Tangle creates a tie prior to me moving it.

Right. It creates a tie. Who's going to risk that?

[hoopsguy]

Jeebs = innocent, then likely 2-3 Things voting for him. They would avoid voting in a block, but would want to see a non-Thing hung.

If both Jeebs and Tangle are innocent then I think it is more likely a 2-1-1 split of the Things (can't be 1-1-1-1 if we are assuming that Tangle is not a Thing).

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Jeebs = innocent, then likely 2-3 Things voting for him. They would avoid voting in a block, but would want to see a non-Thing hung.

If both Jeebs and Tangle are innocent then I think it is more likely a 2-1-1 split of the Things (can't be 1-1-1-1 if we are assuming that Tangle is not a Thing).

Hoops I have to say your late vote change for no reason is NOT sitting well with me. You're trying to avoid a nonexistant tie. I will be watching this reveal with great interest now.

[Schmidty]

You gather again today, and quickly decide on JeeberD.

"Ah, fuck. I almost WISH one of those things would get me. At least then nobody would be able to fly you morons out of here so that you can all marinate your complete and utter idiocy, and I could watch the hilarity in safety and comfort."

JeeberD quickly takes the test, gets up and tromps off cursing and shaking his head.


JeeberD is not a Thing.

[hoopsguy]

Well, a tie equals no vote - that is what worried me. But after reviewing the numbers, even if they had three Things to start (highly doubtful) they weren't in end game mode. And they weren't guaranteed a 1:1 trade tomorrow, but would be spotting us the chance to double-up on Things. You are absolutely correct - this would have been a zero-value play for them.

So I didn't need to move the vote. I'll take whatever heat you (and the others) think is appropriate for this if he comes up clean.


Of course, that means I didn't need to hang around this page for the last 60-90 minutes on a really nice spring evening here either

[Barkeep49]

Hey thanks for the quick turn around Schmidty.

I guess that this actually mitigates your looking to avoid a tie somewhat as this way you can't take credit for being part of a shitface lynch.

[Barkeep49]

So how many times do we test Jeeber before the shitfaces decide that we're not going to go down that road again and decide to convert him?

[hoopsguy]

Perfect.

Barkeep, my vote changed nothing in terms of the results. 6-4 vs 7-3. I agree in hindsight it was a needless play but there was no value-add for me doing this as a Thing.

If you think that I was protecting Tanglewood (I wasn't), where were the two votes to create a tie coming from? There was zero movement in that direction in the last 30-40 minutes leading up to the vote.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Perfect.

Barkeep, my vote changed nothing in terms of the results. 6-4 vs 7-3. I agree in hindsight it was a needless play but there was no value-add for me doing this as a Thing.

If you think that I was protecting Tanglewood (I wasn't), where were the two votes to create a tie coming from? There was zero movement in that direction in the last 30-40 minutes leading up to the vote.

I acutally agree that the switch provides little value if you are a badguy at this point and so is very helpful. Though since it provided little value as a goodguy perhaps it isn't quite as helpful. Anyhow I suppose you're not really on my radar screen as much as Tangle is. Or Blade for that matter.