Werewolf XXVI: The Thing - GAME OVER! THINGS WIN!!!

[hoopsguy]

OK, now that the results are in - I think I'm the last person that should be discussing who I think the Things will be converting, as I'm the one in position to potentially negate their move.

I'm happy to take suggestions on who to guard.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

OK, now that the results are in - I think I'm the last person that should be discussing who I think the Things will be converting, as I'm the one in position to potentially negate their move.

I'm happy to take suggestions on who to guard.

I think you should protect cronin or I. I think we've most proven our humanness today and thus are a likely convert tonight. I know you'll make the right choice.

[hoopsguy]

One question I do have in terms of the guard play - what are your thoughts in terms of me trying to guard a Thing?

I don't know if I guarded CW as a Thing or as a human on Night 4. But if he was a Thing then I can tell you I don't get different results from guarding a human vs a Thing. Good news that I'm not converted, bad news that I don't get an auto-kill or witness or anything like that.

[Barkeep49]

I think there's great potential peril to you guarding a thing and as such would prefer you not do it. I see the chances of a potential upside (inadventant witness) much less then a potential downside (autmoatic conversion)

[hoopsguy]

Just to clarify - I'm happy to get feedback from people besides Barkeep here if anyone else cares to jump into the conversation ...

No, not you, Tyrith

[hoopsguy]

Dola, Barkeep and I now have 21 of the last 22 posts (interrupted by the results from Schmidty).

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Dola, Barkeep and I now have 21 of the last 22 posts (interrupted by the results from Schmidty).

Hey this has been fun. It's like when we IM each other when we're both baddies.
But yeah other people would be good.

[hoopsguy]

No complaints, except that I'm already pretty set in my opinion of you (pre-conversion tonight, anyways).

I'm still bummed we lost that game where we were bad guys together ... coulda, woulda, shoulda.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

No complaints, except that I'm already pretty set in my opinion of you (pre-conversion tonight, anyways).

I'm still bummed we lost that game where we were bad guys together ... coulda, woulda, shoulda.

Yeah that was a bummer. We were really rocking for such a long time and then things just fell apart. They nailed you. I made my move too soon. Alas.

But to broaden this out, Anxiety you still fixated on me?

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

But to broaden this out, Anxiety you still fixated on me?

I don't know yet. Maybe.


-Anxiety

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Anxiety

I don't know yet. Maybe.


-Anxiety

Well that's encouraging considering how hardcore you've been against me. Hope you keep moving in this direction. Unless they target me tonight. In which I now hope you stay suspicous, only to later hope you do not.

[path12]

So much for consensus.

Wasn't around for lynch. I don't think it's a great idea to talk too much about who to guard, except to say that I would agree with Barkeep that I think you should avoid a thing. ;-)

Interested in Cronin's thoughts.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I acutally agree that the switch provides little value if you are a badguy at this point and so is very helpful. Though since it provided little value as a goodguy perhaps it isn't quite as helpful. Anyhow I suppose you're not really on my radar screen as much as Tangle is. Or Blade for that matter.

Hey barkeep...just wanted to make a comment...we are going into a night...meaning conversion...why in gods name would the bodyguard not be their biggest target. They already proved they would attack the seer the night he revealed...now today the bodyguard revealed...just saying, not sure how hoops can be considered a non-suspect after his reveal

[Blade6119]

And lol at jeeber being innocent...i knew that one was coming from a mile away...i repeat my top two suspects, which havent changed for 4 votes now...Hoops and Tangle...test me if you want tomorrow, i really dont care anymore...Either way have a good night and best of luck to the things in their conversion attempt...as long as you dont pick me your guy should be safe as can be

[Schmidty]

Night actions due by 10 AM EST, as I am leaving for the weekend at 9 AM PST. After that, the Votes will be due by 9 PM EST Monday.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Hey barkeep...just wanted to make a comment...we are going into a night...meaning conversion...why in gods name would the bodyguard not be their biggest target. They already proved they would attack the seer the night he revealed...now today the bodyguard revealed...just saying, not sure how hoops can be considered a non-suspect after his reveal

Haven't looked at the post since he did it but didn't hoops protect himself last night?

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Here is a list of who I have protected on each night:
Night 1: me
Night 2: Barkeep
Night 3: me again
Night 4: Coffee
Night 5: Blade

Nope, looks like he can protect himself tonight if he chose.

[Barkeep49]

You're right. Protecting himself would be a good thing I suppose.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I find it kind of insane that the top 4 posters have over half the posts in a 2100 post thread with 13 still active players.

By the way, 86 (now 87, I guess) is like a babbling speed freak for me. Just sayin'.

[path12]

Are we speculating on conversion? Because the fact that Blade can't be guarded tonight isn't good, considering he'd be in my top four target list along with Barkeep, hoops and Cronin.

Or is that too obvious at this point? I'm really not sure.

[Barkeep49]

Well it hurts our conversion speculation not knowing who is already converted. For instance let's say Blade is already converted. I think he would be less likely to choose some people then if say you were already converted. With us still looking at 4 baddies out there I'm finding it hard to identify ONE person tonight who is most likely to be converted.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Well it hurts our conversion speculation not knowing who is already converted. For instance let's say Blade is already converted. I think he would be less likely to choose some people then if say you were already converted. With us still looking at 4 baddies out there I'm finding it hard to identify ONE person tonight who is most likely to be converted.

For purposes of this I was just assuming everyone is good and trying to piece it out logically, since all I know is me and we have many suspects out there.

It's easier for me to look at that way: If I'm the only wolf and I have anybody I could convert, who would it be? You four would probably be top of the list at this point. If I start adding variables like who out of there is already bad I just start getting sidetracked.

[Raiders Army]

Jesus H. Christ on a bicycle. I knew we should've gone for Blade. He'll escape yet again tomorrow.

[hoopsguy]

I'm glad that we have until Monday for the deadline today as my new client + evening plans would mean that I wouldn't have any access between now and late tonight.

I was hoping (but not expecting) that evening results would have been posted before I had to leave for the office. And I don't have any indication from Schmidty on the results of my action, so I'll just sit on this for now to avoid any late-send on Thing actions (probably being way paranoid here). Sorry if this slows anyone down in terms of their analysis this afternoon ...

[Barkeep49]

Just so you all know I had a dream in which Mckerny died during the night cycle. What this means I don't know.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Just so you all know I had a dream in which Mckerny died during the night cycle. What this means I don't know.

You're Joseph and the Amazing Technicolor Dreamcoat?

[Schmidty]

Night actions have been recieved.

Day 7 has begun. Votes due by Monday at 9 PM EST.

[Barkeep49]

Ok so much for my predictive powers. And I'm still not a shitface.

[Raiders Army]

VOTE BLADE6119
I don't think I need to give any explanation for this vote.

[JeeberD]

Christ, when are you guys ever going to believe me?

Mckerney's theory about cronin and Barkeep sacrificing CW is actually something that was bouncing around my head yesterday but never voiced. I really think it's a theory worth checking out...

[Abe Sargent]

Vote tanglewood


This is a placeholder vote until I think about it more.


-Anxiety

[st.cronin]

I think Tanglewood is (was) human. Blade I am very suspicious of.

I am still human. My top suspect: hoopsguy. If he wasn't a Thing already, he made the sense for a conversion last night. (In the same way that CW made sense - even if it's the obvious play, it's a pawn for pawn trade). I still like our strategy of getting some consensus to avoid last minute nuttiness, but I don't really have a good target in mind, other than hoops, and I'd like to see some discussion on the merits.

[st.cronin]

zzzzzzzzzzzz

[Blade6119]

[b]VOTE HOOPSGUY[b]

Ive said for days he was bad...i dont think he picked the wrong night to protect CW...i think he was already bad by the time CW went(night 3 supposedly)...and even if you dont believe he was bad then he is undoubtably the #1 canidate for conversion last night and going forward...for him to be clean today, or even tomorrow, is beyond me after im to believe CW went the night he revealed.

[Blade6119]

dola, bad vote

VOTE HOOPSGUY

[JeeberD]

Vote st cronin

I think it's quite possible that he and Barkeep are Things and sacrificed CW to try and clear themselves, AKA "The mckerney theory"/

[Barkeep49]

Want to hear from hoops, personally, before I start talking about what I think for the day.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by JeeberD

Vote st cronin

I think it's quite possible that he and Barkeep are Things and sacrificed CW to try and clear themselves, AKA "The mckerney theory"/

No offense, fella, but you are terrible at this game.

[hoopsguy]

Sorry that I wasn't able to post before now. Long day + night yesterday. Beer + wine + mixed drinks = too drunk to sit and type in the "Drunk Guy" thread when I got home.

I stayed home last night on my guard. I figured that there was at least a 50% chance the Things made the obvious play last time (Night 3, as opposed to Night 5) so I tried to take away the obvious play.

Of course, no contact last night means that I'm extremely vulnerable when Monday evening rolls around.

[hoopsguy]

Just in case it wasn't clear, "stayed home last night on my guard" = guard Hoopsguy.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Just in case it wasn't clear, "stayed home last night on my guard" = guard Hoopsguy.

You had said earlier that you had guarded yourself the night BEFORE last, and that you couldn't guard yourself last night.

VOTE HOOPSGUY

[hoopsguy]

Wrong, I guarded Blade on Night 5.

Night 1: me
Night 2: Barkeep
Night 3: me
Night 4: Coffee Warlord
Night 5: Blade
Night 6: me

I'll go look up the post where I listed the first five night so you don't think this is revisionist history.

[hoopsguy]

I can't guard back-to-back nights. If I could do that I would have stuck to CW like glue. But I can return to a person after taking one night to guard someone else. Which is what I did earlier in the game (Night 1 to Night 3) and would have done with CW for Night 6 if he had tested clean.

[hoopsguy]

From Post #1893:

Here is a list of who I have protected on each night:
Night 1: me
Night 2: Barkeep
Night 3: me again
Night 4: Coffee
Night 5: Blade

[st.cronin]

my bad - I thought you had said somewhere that it went you, Coffee, then you, and if Coffee had tested clean you would be on him that night.

My vote stands for now as I still think you're a likely Thing.

[JeeberD]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

No offense, fella, but you are terrible at this game.

Most likely true, but which one of use has been certain about someone three or four times and right only once?

[Barkeep49]

Seems like now might be a good time to see if Raiders has been incredibly wrong for a long time.

Vote Blade

[Raiders Army]

If I'm wrong, I'll be incredibly surprised. I just need some peace of mind that he's either with us or against us. If he's with us, I think he's throwing too much junk out there (not lately though, he's laid low which may be meaningful in of itself).

[hoopsguy]

Blade makes a lot of sense as a convert last night, since I did make my reveal yesterday. There was only one person that the Things would have known was safe. Plus there is much less worry about him being a blessed based on the Day 1 "brilliant" bit.

The fact that he has been voting for me for the past 3-4 days really doesn't come into play here with this vote. I just figured that he is a pretty good bet to be a Thing today.

Cronin, I was pretty much set to vote for Blade for the reasons above but I'm getting to the point where I'm worried about you now. I made what I think was the obvious play yesterday in guarding myself, but now I'm a Thing? The whole reason that I came forward with my bodyguard reveal was to provide some clarity when people were deciding whether or not to vote for Coffee Warlord.

If I was playing as a Thing I would have at least said that I guarded him two out of three nights and tried to make the argument that there was a smaller window of time (one night instead of two) for CW to be converted.

I don't get why you would believe I was a human yesterday but a Thing today? Unless you think that I didn't guard myself last night and was converted - I guess I would have to use that lie if I found myself in that position. But I'm trying to extend my time as a human as long as possible ... I knew when I came forward with my reveal that I was going to jump up the list of people to convert. So I had the day of the reveal (Day 6) and the day after (today - Day 7) as days that I knew I would still be human and able to help us move the game forward. After that, I expect that I'll have a night PM from Schmidty telling me that I'm changing teams.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Blade makes a lot of sense as a convert last night, since I did make my reveal yesterday. There was only one person that the Things would have known was safe. Plus there is much less worry about him being a blessed based on the Day 1 "brilliant" bit.

The fact that he has been voting for me for the past 3-4 days really doesn't come into play here with this vote. I just figured that he is a pretty good bet to be a Thing today.

Cronin, I was pretty much set to vote for Blade for the reasons above but I'm getting to the point where I'm worried about you now. I made what I think was the obvious play yesterday in guarding myself, but now I'm a Thing? The whole reason that I came forward with my bodyguard reveal was to provide some clarity when people were deciding whether or not to vote for Coffee Warlord.

If I was playing as a Thing I would have at least said that I guarded him two out of three nights and tried to make the argument that there was a smaller window of time (one night instead of two) for CW to be converted.

I don't get why you would believe I was a human yesterday but a Thing today? Unless you think that I didn't guard myself last night and was converted - I guess I would have to use that lie if I found myself in that position. But I'm trying to extend my time as a human as long as possible ... I knew when I came forward with my reveal that I was going to jump up the list of people to convert. So I had the day of the reveal (Day 6) and the day after (today - Day 7) as days that I knew I would still be human and able to help us move the game forward. After that, I expect that I'll have a night PM from Schmidty telling me that I'm changing teams.

Those are all good points. I have been suspicious of Blade for a long time, and I still think consensus is the best play for humans.

unvote hoopsguy

vote Blade

I was all ready to be suspicious of you, hoops, thinking that you couldn't guard yourself last night.