2012 Presidential Campaign

[RainMaker]

I haven't donated to either but I did donate to some groups a couple years ago and those groups must be tied to particular parties because I get bombarded with calls and letters. Some are really creepy. The "Wish so-and-so a Happy B-Day" stuff is the worst.

[albionmoonlight]

Horrible Jobs Report today.

It's still early, but pretty much all of the breaks that could go Romney's way have gone Romney's way (save real gamechangers like Europe melting down).

Kind of like a basketball game where you get out to a quick 12-2 lead. It's still early, but you have to like how things have gone so far.

I don't want to discount Jon's and Ben's insights into the GOP religious base and their distrust for Romney. But if the economy keeps stalling, I don't know if he will need a G.W.-Bush-level enthusiastic base.

[Crapshoot]

Yeah. there's a need for fiscal stimulus here but in an election here, no one is going to do it because it risks benefiting the president.

[JediKooter]

Admittedly, I have not paid much attention to the race for the white house, but, what has Romney offered up to 'right this ship'? What has he said that will make voters think he's the one to get things back on track?

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by JediKooter

Admittedly, I have not paid much attention to the race for the white house, but, what has Romney offered up to 'right this ship'? What has he said that will make voters think he's the one to get things back on track?

Tax cuts for the rich, increased military spending, and expanding the deficit.

[JediKooter]

Originally Posted by mckerney

Tax cuts for the rich, increased military spending, and expanding the deficit.

Sounds like deja vu all over again.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by mckerney

Tax cuts for the rich, increased military spending, and expanding the deficit.

And severe reductions in Medicare and SS for the under 55 crowd.

[stevew]

I was thinking we need less regulation and more wealth transfer

[panerd]

Originally Posted by mckerney

Tax cuts for the rich, increased military spending, and expanding the deficit.

Basically continuing Obama's and Bush Jr.'s policies?

[JediKooter]

Don't forget that War on Drugs. It has really turned a profit.

[fantom1979]

Originally Posted by JediKooter

Admittedly, I have not paid much attention to the race for the white house, but, what has Romney offered up to 'right this ship'? What has he said that will make voters think he's the one to get things back on track?

If the economy keeps getting worse, I am not sure he will even need a plan. The anyone but Obama crowd gets bigger and louder every time a bad jobs report comes out.

[JediKooter]

Originally Posted by fantom1979

If the economy keeps getting worse, I am not sure he will even need a plan. The anyone but Obama crowd gets bigger and louder every time a bad jobs report comes out.

I can totally see that and is pretty much the norm. I think that is part of what blew any chances George Bush I had of getting a second term. Pretty much an automatic panic button press at the voting booths.

[kcchief19]

Can we please cross Marco Rubio off the VP short list?

Rubio bill would make Olympic prize money tax-exempt | The Ticket - Yahoo! News

More time wasting on bullshit. Grover Norquist says athletes who get a gold-medal bonus have a tax burden. Guess what? If I get a bonus at work, I have a tax burden too. How about all bonuses tax free?

If this is Rubio's idea of governing, count me out.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by kcchief19

If this is Rubio's idea of governing, count me out.

If this is all it takes to cross him off your list, I suspect he was never seriously on it in the first place.

[molson]

Originally Posted by kcchief19

Can we please cross Marco Rubio off the VP short list?

Rubio bill would make Olympic prize money tax-exempt | The Ticket - Yahoo! News

More time wasting on bullshit. Grover Norquist says athletes who get a gold-medal bonus have a tax burden. Guess what? If I get a bonus at work, I have a tax burden too. How about all bonuses tax free?

If this is Rubio's idea of governing, count me out.

I don't know how much tax money that would cost the country, but I wish politicians were more worried about this kind of stuff than taxes on medals.

IRS missing billions in ID theft - Business - Boston.com

$5 billion a year! Medicaid fraud losses might be even higher, and real enforcement there only started pretty recently (but it's still remarkably easy to steal from the government.) If you're a provider, and bill the government for services you never rendered, they'll pay you and there's a 99% chance you'll get away with it. But these things tend not to be really big talking points for politicians generally.

[lungs]

I've been watching Nate Silver's model predictions at 538 and he's got Obama with a 70% chance of winning the electoral vote at this point in the game which has been rising lately....

Lots can change but if I was a betting man, I'd put my money on four more years of conservatives screaming about Obozo or whatever other name they come up with.

[molson]

Originally Posted by lungs

I've been watching Nate Silver's model predictions at 538 and he's got Obama with a 70% chance of winning the electoral vote at this point in the game which has been rising lately....

Lots can change but if I was a betting man, I'd put my money on four more years of conservatives screaming about Obozo or whatever other name they come up with.

70% seems low. The only real hope for Romney is economic catastrophe, and I don't think there's enough time left for the economy to fall far enough.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by molson

I don't know how much tax money that would cost the country, but I wish politicians were more worried about this kind of stuff than taxes on medals.

Umm...

The audit was prompted by a request from Florida Sen. Bill Nelson, whose home state contains the top two cities where fraudulent tax returns originate: Tampa and Miami. Last week Nelson, a Democrat, joined with Republican Sen. Tom Coburn of Oklahoma to introduce legislation designed to curb identity theft in the tax system.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Umm...

Bi-partisan cooperation??

I must be dreaming!!

[molson]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Umm...

I did overlook that, and that's good that there's legislators trying to get somewhere with this. I guess I'd just like to see Obama or Romney pissed off about stuff like this. It's always spend more on this or spend less on this. Never much attention paid to just fixing what's broken in our system.

[lungs]

Originally Posted by molson

70% seems low. The only real hope for Romney is economic catastrophe, and I don't think there's enough time left for the economy to fall far enough.

I dunno, seems about right to me. Obama being very beatable is probably a big part of the equation but we can start to see a shift in the prediction toward Obama as I think the Dems have done a good job lately selling the electorate on the idea that Obama may have a little stench to him but Romney smells of a two week dead carcass.

[JediKooter]

Romney renews welfare reform attack against Obama | The Ticket - Yahoo! News

So wait a minute. Isn't one of the republicans mantras "Less federal interference, leave it to the states"?

So Romney is accusing Obama of reducing the Fed's role and give states more leeway, while at the same time he is supporting something Clinton implemented? Is Romney getting punked by his script writers?

Though I am curious, how do you plan on getting these people jobs when hiring has been stagnant? What is Romney's plan for creating more jobs? Does the president have a magic "job wand" that he can wave to create jobs that don't exist? I've seen or heard nothing other than taxes from Romney.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by JediKooter

Romney renews welfare reform attack against Obama | The Ticket - Yahoo! News

So wait a minute. Isn't one of the republicans mantras "Less federal interference, leave it to the states"?

So Romney is accusing Obama of reducing the Fed's role and give states more leeway, while at the same time he is supporting something Clinton implemented? Is Romney getting punked by his script writers?

Though I am curious, how do you plan on getting these people jobs when hiring has been stagnant? What is Romney's plan for creating more jobs? Does the president have a magic "job wand" that he can wave to create jobs that don't exist? I've seen or heard nothing other than taxes from Romney.

Mitt Romney sure doesn't like Obama's welfare reform, but you know who is a big fan of it? Mitt Romney.

Romney Attacks President On Welfare; Obama Team Alleges Hypocrisy : It's All Politics : NPR

Romney's latest attack springboards off a July 12 Health and Human Services Department memo. The memo informed states that, under certain circumstances, the Obama administration would waive certain work requirements of the welfare overhaul law if states could show that the added flexibility would allow them to move welfare recipients to work more effectively.

Republican governors — including Romney, when he was governor of Massachusetts — have long sought such flexibility, but to no avail. They say the flexibility would give states latitude to try new approaches.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by JediKooter

What is Romney's plan for creating more jobs? Does the president have a magic "job wand" that he can wave to create jobs that don't exist?

Just one more round of tax cuts for the rich and those jobs will finally start trickling down.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by lungs

I dunno, seems about right to me. Obama being very beatable is probably a big part of the equation but we can start to see a shift in the prediction toward Obama as I think the Dems have done a good job lately selling the electorate on the idea that Obama may have a little stench to him but Romney smells of a two week dead carcass.

Don't look at overall polling. Look at swing state polling.

Nate Silver over at 531 (who called all but one state correctly last election) projects Obama's chances of victory as quite high. In fact, the most probable number of electoral college votes that he sees Obama coming away with is 330.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by mckerney

Mitt Romney sure doesn't like Obama's welfare reform, but you know who is a big fan of it? Mitt Romney.

Romney Attacks President On Welfare; Obama Team Alleges Hypocrisy : It's All Politics : NPR

This is the best part of this whole line of attack frankly. It's laughable.

[Coffee Warlord]

It still disturbs me that the Republicans couldn't find anyone better than Mitt Fucking Romney. Obama's sitting here saying 'Please, have the White House. I don't want it anymore', and the Republicans trot out this waste of space. How screwed up is your party when this is what you can produce?

[JediKooter]

Originally Posted by mckerney

Mitt Romney sure doesn't like Obama's welfare reform, but you know who is a big fan of it? Mitt Romney.

Romney Attacks President On Welfare; Obama Team Alleges Hypocrisy : It's All Politics : NPR

Amazing. Why am I not surprised by this? He suggests giving something these GOP governors have been wanting, but, the 'Anti Everything Obama' parade continues its march down main street USA, with the Float of Hypocrisy following close behind.

Originally Posted by mckerney

Just one more round of tax cuts for the rich and those jobs will finally start trickling down.

Ah yes, the other magic cure all...less taxes on the rich. Admittedly, I'm a bit lazy here so I haven't looked it up, but, has there been any definitive proof that lowering taxes on the rich actually creates jobs for the middle and lower class?

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by JediKooter

Amazing. Why am I not surprised by this? He suggests giving something these GOP governors have been wanting, but, the 'Anti Everything Obama' parade continues its march down main street USA, with the Float of Hypocrisy following close behind.

I sort of expect Obama to convert to Mormonism soon only to have Romney launch a round of anti-Mormon attack ads.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by JediKooter

Ah yes, the other magic cure all...less taxes on the rich. Admittedly, I'm a bit lazy here so I haven't looked it up, but, has there been any definitive proof that lowering taxes on the rich actually creates jobs for the middle and lower class?

Depends who you're asking, and who paid for the study. Much like finding definitive proof that raising taxes on the rich creates jobs.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

It still disturbs me that the Republicans couldn't find anyone better than Mitt Fucking Romney.

You think YOU'RE disturbed ... you got no idea.

[JediKooter]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

It still disturbs me that the Republicans couldn't find anyone better than Mitt Fucking Romney. Obama's sitting here saying 'Please, have the White House. I don't want it anymore', and the Republicans trot out this waste of space. How screwed up is your party when this is what you can produce?

To me, it shows just how bad the other potential nominees were.

[JediKooter]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Depends who you're asking, and who paid for the study. Much like finding definitive proof that raising taxes on the rich creates jobs.

My hope would be an independent, non politically motivated group.

I haven't heard anything that I can recall (not saying there isn't, just can't remember) that says raising taxes on the rich would create jobs. I've heard plenty of times that raising taxes on the rich would fix the deficit/economy, which I don't buy for one second.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by JediKooter

To me, it shows just how bad the other potential nominees were.

I think the "good" candidates (Rubio? Ryan?) wanted nothing to do with running against Obama bad economy or not.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by JediKooter

My hope would be an independent, non politically motivated group.

When money and politics are involved? Good luck.

I haven't heard anything that I can recall (not saying there isn't, just can't remember) that says raising taxes on the rich would create jobs. I've heard plenty of times that raising taxes on the rich would fix the deficit/economy, which I don't buy for one second.

Yeah, I was being a bit facetious there, but the point was effectively...find one politically-charged study that says one thing, you'll find 10 more that say the complete opposite.

[RainMaker]

Personal income tax rates have almost nothing to do with job creation.

[JediKooter]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

I think the "good" candidates (Rubio? Ryan?) wanted nothing to do with running against Obama bad economy or not.

They are probably smart. Not because Obama would trounce them, but, because they're probably too close to the center for the GOP right now and wouldn't have made it through the primaries. And by too close to the center, I mean, if the center was 0 and rightest of the right were a 10, they'd by around a 6. Just my guess though as I know very little about those two.

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

When money and politics are involved? Good luck.

Yeah, I was being a bit facetious there, but the point was effectively...find one politically-charged study that says one thing, you'll find 10 more that say the complete opposite.

Well, not just here in the states as I'm sure other countries could provide some kind of study if they haven't already.

Oh no, I definitely caught the facetiousness. I definitely agree with you though.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Personal income tax rates have almost nothing to do with job creation.

This.

[molson]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

This.

What does have to do with job creation (that's relevant to a presidential campaign)? What was the basis of say, Joe Biden's early 2010 promise that "some time in the next couple of months, we’re going to be creating between 250,000 jobs a month and 500,000 jobs a month.” Meanwhile, Romney's criticizing Obama for "not creating jobs", which I suppose is only fair when Obama and Biden campaigned on creating jobs (and Romney's also claiming that HE can create jobs as president). But what does a president do to create jobs, and what went wrong for Obama in that regard? All I can tell for sure is both Romney and Obama seem to think "number of jobs created" is a really critical metric, and they'll both increase that number somehow.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by mckerney

Just one more round of tax cuts for the rich and those jobs will finally start trickling down.

And deregulation. We need more deregulation, especially of the financial sector. Those upstanding, long-term thinking businesses can look after their selves, right? They would never do anything that would, say, tank the economy.

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

If this is all it takes to cross him off your list, I suspect he was never seriously on it in the first place.

It would probably horrify you to know I voted in Missouri's GOP primary yesterday.

I just think it's shallow of Rubio to use this jingoistic issue to try to campaign for the VP spot ... When conversely his state's Democratic senator is pursuing IRS reform to address billions in fraud in their state.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by molson

What does have to do with job creation (that's relevant to a presidential campaign)? What was the basis of say, Joe Biden's early 2010 promise that "some time in the next couple of months, we’re going to be creating between 250,000 jobs a month and 500,000 jobs a month.” Meanwhile, Romney's criticizing Obama for "not creating jobs", which I suppose is only fair when Obama and Biden campaigned on creating jobs. But what does a president do to create jobs, and what went wrong for Obama in that regard?

I don't really know the answer to that. Government jobs would probably be the easiest, although the value taxpayers get out of that can be questioned. We have been cutting government jobs though rather consistently. Biden's claim is likely bullshit because the government just doesn't have the power to create jobs like that without massive government programs.

But personal income tax cuts for wealthy people has nothing to do with it (unless it's a cash flow issue but credit isn't a problem for most companies these days). Jobs are about demand. Until you can create demand in the economy for products and services in this country, jobs won't go up.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I don't really know the answer to that. Government jobs would probably be the easiest, although the value taxpayers get out of that can be questioned. We have been cutting government jobs though rather consistently. Biden's claim is likely bullshit because the government just doesn't have the power to create jobs like that without massive government programs.

But personal income tax cuts for wealthy people has nothing to do with it (unless it's a cash flow issue but credit isn't a problem for most companies these days). Jobs are about demand. Until you can create demand in the economy for products and services in this country, jobs won't go up.

And demand is created (ultimately) through consumer sentiment and consumer spending (to fuel B2B spending).

(just finishing your train of throught)

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by kcchief19

It would probably horrify you to know I voted in Missouri's GOP primary yesterday.

Actually, it doesn't bother me as much as you might think.

Crossover voting in the primary just cost my choice in the local state legislative race his seat by 62 votes (with a reasonable estimate of nearly 4,000 Dem crossover voters skewing the outcome) but there's been nary a whisper of complaint about that from me because it's the exact same thing that was used to boot Cynthia McKinney from Congress years ago.

Assuming state law allows you to vote in that primary, then go for it afaic, goose vs gander and all that.

[bronconick]

On the Obama Super-PAC ad blaming Romney for the wife's death even though she died years after the plant closed:

"To that point, if people had been in Massachusetts, under Governor Romney's health care plan, they would have had health care," Andrea Saul, Romney's campaign press secretary, said during an appearance on Fox News. "There are a lot of people losing their jobs and losing their health care in President [Barack] Obama's economy."

Romney's campaign has to be doing this crap on purpose, right? Your press secretary just went on FOX News and embraced Romneybamacare? After spending the last 8 months talking about how you'd have that POS repealed on the first day?

[lungs]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Don't look at overall polling. Look at swing state polling.

Nate Silver over at 531 (who called all but one state correctly last election) projects Obama's chances of victory as quite high. In fact, the most probable number of electoral college votes that he sees Obama coming away with is 330.

I referenced Silver on my previous post when it had Obama at 70% chance of victory

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by bronconick

On the Obama Super-PAC ad blaming Romney for the wife's death even though she died years after the plant closed:



Romney's campaign has to be doing this crap on purpose, right? Your press secretary just went on FOX News and embraced Romneybamacare? After spending the last 8 months talking about how you'd have that POS repealed on the first day?

And equally as bad - did they even bother (I didn't see the appearance or any of the statements) to express any condolences to the guy?

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

You think YOU'RE disturbed ... you got no idea.

Jon, we know YOU'RE disturbed

SI

[molson]

Originally Posted by JediKooter

Romney renews welfare reform attack against Obama | The Ticket - Yahoo! News

So wait a minute. Isn't one of the republicans mantras "Less federal interference, leave it to the states"?

So Romney is accusing Obama of reducing the Fed's role and give states more leeway, while at the same time he is supporting something Clinton implemented? Is Romney getting punked by his script writers?

Though I am curious, how do you plan on getting these people jobs when hiring has been stagnant? What is Romney's plan for creating more jobs? Does the president have a magic "job wand" that he can wave to create jobs that don't exist? I've seen or heard nothing other than taxes from Romney.

I think this is a new Republican thing, trying to compare Obama unfavorably to Clinton to appeal to moderates:

Gingrich: Obama is the ‘anti-Clinton’ – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs

It's kind of fun that a Republican calling someone the "anti-Clinton" is meant as an insult.

[RainMaker]

He needs a better campaign team to compete. From everything I've read, he was a really good manager for Bain. Handles people well and puts the right people in the right positions. Astounding to me that they aren't making that his narrative and instead getting caught up in slap fights with Harry Reid and complimenting his own health care package that he's supposed to be against.

Someone in the GOP needs to get in there and clean house for him. Get some people who know what they're doing. All they had to do was say the ad was baseless and slimy (which it was).