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View Poll Results: Who will (not should) be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2008? | |||
Joe Biden | 0 | 0% | |
Hillary Clinton | 62 | 35.84% | |
Christopher Dodd | 0 | 0% | |
John Edwards | 10 | 5.78% | |
Mike Gravel | 1 | 0.58% | |
Dennis Kucinich | 2 | 1.16% | |
Barack Obama | 97 | 56.07% | |
Bill Richardson | 1 | 0.58% | |
Voters: 173. You may not vote on this poll |
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04-15-2008, 12:54 PM | #2201 |
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I think what I'm getting at is that trying to say that implying people's religious faith and belief in gun ownership rights are due to economic bitterness being exploited by a political party is highly, HIGHLY offensive to people who actually do have religious faith and belief in gun ownerhip rights. Its kind of like saying to them that those things are merely because the Republicans can tricked you.
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04-15-2008, 01:00 PM | #2202 |
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That's not what he said. And it apparently isn't that offensive to actual undecided Pennsylvanians, as the polls didn't budge. The most "offended" people have been Hillary supporters and conservative talking heads.
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04-15-2008, 01:03 PM | #2203 | |
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That's what he implied. I think based on his statement, that's probably what he actually believed. And, really, it doesn't necessarily matter to "undecided Pennsylvanians". Where it'll really manifest is against McCain. After all, the rural, small town folk in the Democratic primaries are going to be for Clinton more anyway. It may affect the undecideds in the general election, however... as it will be part of a concerted effort to portray Obama as an elitist. Hillary doesn't have enough time to do that (and really, Hillary going after someone else for being an elitist liberal won't go over well). Oh, and as for the Penn polls: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...lls/index.html They seem to be interestingly all over the place. On the 14th, you had the Susquahanna poll showing Clinton winning by 4 and the ARG poll showing Clinton winning by 20. Today, the Quinnipiac shows Clinton winning by 6, but the SurveyUSA has her up by 14 and the Rasmussen has her up by 9.
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04-15-2008, 01:11 PM | #2204 |
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Hillary said that Pennsylvania wasn't part of America. At least that's what she implied and that's probably what she actually believes. John McCain said that he loves seeing Americans killed in wars. At least that's what he implied and that's probably what he actually believes.
This parsing of statements and invention of implications and beliefs is ridiculous. And I don't care what Republicans will do in the general. It isn't shocking to me that they're going to try to portray Obama as an out of touch liberal elitist. Guess what, they'll do the same with Hillary.
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04-15-2008, 01:19 PM | #2205 | |
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But isn't that true to an extent? It's pretty much accepted wisdom that many blue collar folks voting Republican are voting against their own interests in favor of the "strong America" and "pull yourselves up by the bootstraps" arguments, right?
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04-15-2008, 01:23 PM | #2206 |
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The poll raw numbers don't matter in relation to Obama's comments. What's important is the movement of the polls from before to after. A case can be made that Obama was closing the gap and that his comments stopped that momentum, but in terms of numbers, the polls didn't budge from pre-comments to post-comments.
Hillary is going to win PA, probably by high single or low double digits, but at this point there is no evidence that Obama's comments are making a measurable impact.
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04-15-2008, 01:24 PM | #2207 | |
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Bot hooo-boy will it be fun, after the democrats take a super-majority in the senate this fall, watching Harry Reid strip Lieberman of his committee positions and not allow him to caucus with the democrats. |
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04-15-2008, 01:29 PM | #2208 | ||
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All joking aside, I actually do believe that what slipped from Obama was what he actually believes and that's what those words implied. Quote:
They are voting against their own ECONOMIC interests! Economics isn't everything. There are very, very strong social interests and blue collar folks voting Republican are definitely not voting against those. It's one of the problems I have with the Democrats. They want to blame these blue collar Republicans for voting against "their interests" when they don't even see what interests they are actually voting for.
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04-15-2008, 01:31 PM | #2209 | |
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So you want the Democrats to act like the Republicans and assume they'll never lose the majority? Pretty short-sighted if you ask me. They may need that vote at some point soon... and Joe does vote on most things with the Dems.
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04-15-2008, 01:33 PM | #2210 | |
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Suffice to say, I didn't agree with your characterization of either Kristol's message or Sullivan's rebuttal in the slightest (SHOCKER! ). I'm guessing it boils down to how much you believe Obama's clarification of his "bitter" statement. Personally, I take Obama at his word, that he wasn't putting people down for clinging to (guns, religion, American Idol), rather pointing out that when the system fails you, sometimes that's all that's left. So when Kristol tries to paint Obama as mocking people who "cling to religion" it's deliberatley misguided. Sullivan here is being a drama queen for sure ("lying, godless communist"), but his gist is right on - the comparison of Obama and Marx in terms of how they feel about religion and the population's dependence on it couldn't be more different and the attempt to tie them together is deliberately and inflammatory. I think Sullivan hit Kristol hard on all the points Kristol tired to make - YMMV. |
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04-15-2008, 02:00 PM | #2211 | |
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True, I meant economic interests but I should have specified that. Though to an extent the social arguments are sometimes, shall we say.....simplified and the actual positions of the parties distorted somewhat.
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04-15-2008, 02:04 PM | #2212 | |
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A little bit. But they are still important things. I mean, the Democrats aren't going to ban guns or anything, but they will put more legislation for gun ownership, which will make things a bit more onerous. And there are some Dems in positions of power who do want to ban them outright. That's a bit scary to those people, even if they realize it'll never actually come to pass (then again, their voting for people who believe contrary may be the reason it doesn't come to pass).
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04-15-2008, 08:49 PM | #2213 |
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04-15-2008, 08:56 PM | #2214 |
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gun issue to the right is similar to the abortion issue to the left. Just a mild threat can really rally votes.
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04-16-2008, 07:32 AM | #2215 | |
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Speaking of interests, I think this NY Times commentary more eloquently says what I've been trying to.
http://campaignstops.blogs.nytimes.c...ht-wrong-word/ Quote:
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04-16-2008, 07:45 AM | #2216 |
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Except multiple polls in PA and the Gallup tracking poll have shown no effect from Obama's comments. The only people offended are conservative pundits and Hillary supporters. I expected this to hurt him, but as of today there isn't any evidence that rural Americans feel any anger towards Obama.
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04-16-2008, 07:56 AM | #2217 | ||
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Like Schur said, this will likely raise its head in the general. It won't stop him from the nomination. But, it isn't just conservative pundits or Hillary supporters. Maureen Dowd has been in the Obama camp for a while and she wasn't all that pleased: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/16/op...16dowd.html?hp Quote:
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04-16-2008, 08:29 AM | #2218 | |
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Adverb? |
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04-16-2008, 09:23 AM | #2219 | |
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I do like Thomas Frank's book getting some "love". However, the silly claims that a sequel should be called "“What’s the Matter With the Upper East Side?”" is kindof silly since he's from Kansas. SI
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04-16-2008, 09:44 AM | #2220 | ||
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Seems to me that the rich elite politicians (on both sides) don't understand that it is not a universal American goal to become rich and elite. Lots of people are satisfied with their current economic situation even if other people don't think they should be. Don't we all know tons of people who live a very modest lifestyle but choose not to work overtime or start job-hopping because they value their free time and time with the family more than the extra money they could be making? "Economic problems" don't make people cling to cultural ideal since people who are comfortable don't necessarily consider them economic problems. |
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04-16-2008, 10:36 AM | #2221 |
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It's so fucking stupid that discussions about Whole Foods and drinking shots of Crown Royal are seen as more important than policy positions. But it does help substantiate my belief that the Presidential election comes down to little more than likability.
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04-16-2008, 12:05 PM | #2222 | |
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When polls show more people think the guy who suggests eliminating the federal tax on gasoline during the summer is the most qualified candidate to handle the economy, it makes policy seem pretty damned inconsequential. |
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04-16-2008, 12:30 PM | #2223 |
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LOL!
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04-16-2008, 07:43 PM | #2224 |
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Is it me or does it seem like they are attacking Obama?
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04-16-2008, 07:46 PM | #2225 |
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Obama is looking very weak right now and in my opinion has lost the election tonight.
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04-16-2008, 07:49 PM | #2226 |
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I agree totally. Also I am watching this debate because i am interested in what these two have to say and how they think they would make the country better. I wont lie if I were to vote today i would vote McCain, but i still could be swayed. But they havent talked about any issues yet. All they talk about is what Obama's pastor said...or what Hillary said about being under sniper fire. I dont give a fuck about that stuff...talk about the issues. What the hell do you stand for and what would you do to implement it to make this a better country. Am I wrong in wanting them to talk about actual issues? |
04-16-2008, 07:54 PM | #2227 |
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Obama made mention to the same thing. He said that people are making big deals over not important issues. I agree with him in that respect but he doesn't look as cool as he has in his other appearances. They have kept him on the defensive the whole night.
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04-16-2008, 07:59 PM | #2228 |
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As far as Iraq goes I like Obama's answer alittle bit more then I like Hillary's...
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04-16-2008, 08:00 PM | #2229 |
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I agree with you Noop, but I'm not keen on his either.
I am glad that they've finally started talking about the important issues, only an hour into the debate. |
04-16-2008, 08:01 PM | #2230 |
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Why are they discussing Israel? This is an American election not the Israel election.
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04-16-2008, 08:02 PM | #2231 |
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Dola...this is a little off topic but still interesting. We (The US) say that Israel is our strongest "alley" in the region. But I attended a security briefing today that said that Israel is one of the top 5 threats against the USA as far as Espionage goes.
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04-16-2008, 08:04 PM | #2232 |
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I like Hillary's answer a little bit better but I still don't like the fact we are discussing Israel.
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04-16-2008, 08:06 PM | #2233 |
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What is her website again?
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04-16-2008, 08:07 PM | #2234 |
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04-16-2008, 08:08 PM | #2235 |
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I was joking but thanks
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04-16-2008, 08:11 PM | #2236 |
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It's a smart quip- "hey, all, we have answers- just go to the website". American viewer: "Uh, I'll do it later. She probably has real answers"
SI
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04-16-2008, 08:14 PM | #2237 |
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Well Hillary is looking a whole lot better in my eyes, atleast some of what she is saying is logical.
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04-16-2008, 08:17 PM | #2238 |
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So now the host is attacking Obama as well?
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04-16-2008, 08:19 PM | #2239 |
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This last little back and forth was great. However, on the policy issue of SS, Clinton was, well, vague at beest.
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04-16-2008, 08:27 PM | #2240 | |
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Hmm ... the two things wouldn't necessarily be mutually exclusive I guess.
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04-16-2008, 08:46 PM | #2241 |
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Neither one is electable.
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04-16-2008, 08:51 PM | #2242 |
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04-16-2008, 08:59 PM | #2243 |
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Obama's statement on capital gains taxes, if I'm reading the paraphrases correctly (haven't seen a transcript), is stunning. Even though cutting the rates produces more revenue, we should raise the rates as a matter of "fairness"?
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04-16-2008, 09:06 PM | #2244 |
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Go to her website, HILLARYCLINTON.COM
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04-16-2008, 09:20 PM | #2245 | |
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He wants to raise it back to the levels of the Clinton era. So it's not as if he's proposing to raise it to levels we haven't seen before. I don't agree with it and it's one of the main reasons I could never vote for him (or at least, one of the one's I always cite for my 'hope' sipping friends) but...that's his position. |
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04-16-2008, 09:33 PM | #2246 | |
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04-16-2008, 10:26 PM | #2247 |
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Well, currently, long term capital gains (held for over 1 year) are taxed less than income tax levels, even though selling investments ends up doing the same thing as getting more money from your employer. So I can see the fairness argument (tax even long term gains as income).
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04-16-2008, 10:41 PM | #2248 | |
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But why should fairness factor into it? Shouldn't the government be concerned about getting the most revenue to pay for programs?
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04-16-2008, 10:44 PM | #2249 | |
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A ton of government programs are based on fairness. Asking why should fairness factor into it is a being a bit silly, IMO (now argueing that it shouldn't is another thing entirely). And the question becomes will lowering the capital gains tax actually increase revenue?
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04-16-2008, 11:04 PM | #2250 |
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After watching the debate, I actually found Hillary likeable.
As to the capital gains issue, it's a little like spitting in the wind. Raising it in a pending downturn is a little risky. If you want to raise taxes, I would look at marginal rates before capital gains. |
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