Werewolf XXXIV: Tombstone (GAME OVER - Night 13)

[Glengoyne]

Oh and my response to the thought that Bullet might be a cowboy.

You are right he might be.

I just don't think he is someone we should currently target. If he is a Cowboy, he is not among the cowboys that are "low hanging fruit". There are others that are plainly more suspicious that Bullet, and they need to be focused on.

[GoldenEagle]

At this point, no one on the villager team is helping the villagers.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Racer

Okay, so I've skimmed over almost everyone's posts individually. Path12 and Fouts haven't really posted anything substantial, but that doesn't neccessarily make them Cowboys. After reading all of St. Cronin's posts at once and then doing the same with all of Glengoyne's posts, I get the sense they may be Cowboys. I am not sure what to think of Hoopsguy based on him saying someone was converted last night without providing evidence. Obviously, I was wrong about Splene. I got a villager vibe from Grammaticus and I think SnDvls is probably a villager as well but I wouldn't say I trust him at this point. So ntndeacon, my opinion I think you should jail the following people tonight:

Jail St. Cronin
Jail Glengoyne

That is my two cents and take it for what it's worth given that I was probably wrong about Splene.

Okay, I really don't understand why players like Swaggs are being given a free pass for saving a villager yet I face incredible heat. I posted this on 10/11 at 9:46 CST. At the time, it put St. Cronin into second place with most jail votes when there were two openings that night. He also ended with the second most votes by the way. Why the hell would I risk sending St. Cronin to jail like that if I were a Cowboy? Again, I don't think this proves I am defintely a villager, but I don't think what Swaggs and Bulletsponge (after reconsideration) did prove they are villagers either. I do, however, know that campaigning to jail St. Cronin well before Chubby's big reveal should give strong indication that I am a villager.

Also, I know I voted to lynch Grammaticus the day after posting this. I unfortunately got caught up in all the people who were voting for him early and joined the bandwagon myself and was not online later to rectify my mistake. I should have trusted my ability to analyze posts to determine whether or not someone is probably a villager or a Cowboy.

For tonight,


Jail Glengoyne
Jail Path12 (I think Swaggs is more likely a Cowboy, but it seems no one supports me on that at the moment)

[Racer]

That was at 9:46 PM CST on 10/11 if any cares (didn't specify PM or AM in the above post).

[path12]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

At this point, no one on the villager team is helping the villagers.

Fair point, even from the dead guy.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Racer

Okay, I really don't understand why players like Swaggs are being given a free pass for saving a villager yet I face incredible heat. I posted this on 10/11 at 9:46 CST. At the time, it put St. Cronin into second place with most jail votes when there were two openings that night. He also ended with the second most votes by the way. Why the hell would I risk sending St. Cronin to jail like that if I were a Cowboy? Again, I don't think this proves I am defintely a villager, but I don't think what Swaggs and Bulletsponge (after reconsideration) did prove they are villagers either. I do, however, know that campaigning to jail St. Cronin well before Chubby's big reveal should give strong indication that I am a villager.

Also, I know I voted to lynch Grammaticus the day after posting this. I unfortunately got caught up in all the people who were voting for him early and joined the bandwagon myself and was not online later to rectify my mistake. I should have trusted my ability to analyze posts to determine whether or not someone is probably a villager or a Cowboy.

For tonight,


Jail Glengoyne
Jail Path12 (I think Swaggs is more likely a Cowboy, but it seems no one supports me on that at the moment)

You aren't thinking this through very rationally... I saved a known villager AND made myself virtually useless AND outted my occupation when I was under no heat whatsoever.

If I am a cowboy, my goal is to get even numbers of cowboys and villagers. GE was as good as dead with that lynch vote, which would have cut the number of villagers down by one. If I were a cowboy, wouldn't I want the lynching to be successful, so that I could night kill someone else and get the villagers numbers down by 2, rather than 1?

If both GE and I were under duress, maybe possibly, I would use my power and hang him out to dry. Not the case here. You are wasting your time focussing on me, bullet, or Chubby.

[Glengoyne]

Originally Posted by Racer

...

I should have trusted my ability to analyze posts to determine whether or not someone is probably a villager or a Cowboy.

For tonight,


Jail Glengoyne
Jail Path12 (I think Swaggs is more likely a Cowboy, but it seems no one supports me on that at the moment)

Something I think you will learn after playing WW. Is that doing what you are describing, identifying wolves simply by their posts, is a difficult thing. I thought I had a couple of people pegged in my first outing. As it turned out I was good at identifying people like the seer, although that seems to have been a one time deal, and I was about 50/50 with my assessments. Placing me and Swaggs at the top of your list, is evidence that you have some work to do on your wolf snooping skills.

Can you describe your PM link to LSG? I was hoping to ask her, but I failed to do so.


Oh and Chubby on the jail thing. Please strongly consider the input of those that are cleared or somewhat trusted when you are picking your targets for jail.

[Glengoyne]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

At this point, no one on the villager team is helping the villagers.

This is how I feel. We just haven't gotten our shit together. We've lost our body guard, we've lost most if not all of our aces in the hole. We are seriously behind.

[Swaggs]

Does anyone else feel like it is just not a good idea to vote for lynches without evidence?

Anytime we wrongly lynch a villager, we lower the overall number of players and make the game more winnable for the cowboys. I really don't like the argument that LSG was not adding anything to the game, because just as a warm body she was doing some good.

We have the ability to kill people via duels and other mechanisms, so to me, I think we need to stop randomly lynching people and making the pool more and more shallow.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Does anyone else feel like it is just not a good idea to vote for lynches without evidence?

Anytime we wrongly lynch a villager, we lower the overall number of players and make the game more winnable for the cowboys. I really don't like the argument that LSG was not adding anything to the game, because just as a warm body she was doing some good.

We have the ability to kill people via duels and other mechanisms, so to me, I think we need to stop randomly lynching people and making the pool more and more shallow.

Lynches are the only weapon that most of the villagers have. Why would you not want us to use them? That seems...odd.

[ntndeacon]

by the way, I don't know if it matters but cronin, had a vice of power.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Glengoyne

Something I think you will learn after playing WW. Is that doing what you are describing, identifying wolves simply by their posts, is a difficult thing. I thought I had a couple of people pegged in my first outing. As it turned out I was good at identifying people like the seer, although that seems to have been a one time deal, and I was about 50/50 with my assessments. Placing me and Swaggs at the top of your list, is evidence that you have some work to do on your wolf snooping skills.

Can you describe your PM link to LSG? I was hoping to ask her, but I failed to do so.


Oh and Chubby on the jail thing. Please strongly consider the input of those that are cleared or somewhat trusted when you are picking your targets for jail.

We both received similar PM's after the night one killing. We both heard gunshots, we both had pleasant night sleeps, and we both fell back to sleep shortly after hearing gunshots. Anxiety was the first to mention hearing gunshots. LSG was the first to mention falling back to sleep shortly after hearing the gunshots. I then asked her how her sleep was and she answered pleasant. That is my PM link to LSG and is why I trusted her.

Glengoyne, you continue to say that you were 50/50 in your assessing players from their posts in your last game. That is pretty damn good. If someone in this game is that good at assessing players' allegiances by their posts and we actually listen to that person, the villagers win hands down.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Glengoyne

Something I think you will learn after playing WW. Is that doing what you are describing, identifying wolves simply by their posts, is a difficult thing. I thought I had a couple of people pegged in my first outing. As it turned out I was good at identifying people like the seer, although that seems to have been a one time deal, and I was about 50/50 with my assessments. Placing me and Swaggs at the top of your list, is evidence that you have some work to do on your wolf snooping skills.

Can you describe your PM link to LSG? I was hoping to ask her, but I failed to do so.


Oh and Chubby on the jail thing. Please strongly consider the input of those that are cleared or somewhat trusted when you are picking your targets for jail.

Just to look at my record so far in judging people by their posts alone:

St. Cronin: Correct
Grammaticus: Correct
Fouts: Didn't really make a definitive decision on him. But if you want we can say wrong
Path12: ???
You: ???
SnDvls: Correct
Splene: Probably wrong

I would say that I have a pretty decent track record of judging players' allegiance by their posts.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Anxiety

Lynches are the only weapon that most of the villagers have. Why would you not want us to use them? That seems...odd.

We also have folks like bullet that have the ability to kill a cowboy in a duel once he is IDed. We have a guy like Chubby that can is a detective and has a gun. I suspect we have one or two other ways to kill cowboys.

Why would I not want us to use them? Because the cowboys can vote in blocks of 3-5, have an already reasonable shot of voting between two innocent villagers since only jailed players can be lynched, and don't really have to worry about being tied together because there are only two choices to pick from. Or, they can just hold their noses and vote for both choices. I don't like the idea of lessening our pool of players when it seems like we do not need to, in my opinion.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

We also have folks like bullet that have the ability to kill a cowboy in a duel once he is IDed. We have a guy like Chubby that can is a detective and has a gun. I suspect we have one or two other ways to kill cowboys.

Why would I not want us to use them? Because the cowboys can vote in blocks of 3-5, have an already reasonable shot of voting between two innocent villagers since only jailed players can be lynched, and don't really have to worry about being tied together because there are only two choices to pick from. Or, they can just hold their noses and vote for both choices. I don't like the idea of lessening our pool of players when it seems like we do not need to, in my opinion.

Bullet has said he has one count them ONE shootout. He has used it. I am not sure bullett is a thraet to the cowboys anymore. Has ANYone else said they had that ability?

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

We also have folks like bullet that have the ability to kill a cowboy in a duel once he is IDed. We have a guy like Chubby that can is a detective and has a gun. I suspect we have one or two other ways to kill cowboys.

Why would I not want us to use them? Because the cowboys can vote in blocks of 3-5, have an already reasonable shot of voting between two innocent villagers since only jailed players can be lynched, and don't really have to worry about being tied together because there are only two choices to pick from. Or, they can just hold their noses and vote for both choices. I don't like the idea of lessening our pool of players when it seems like we do not need to, in my opinion.

That seems like a wolfish thing to say.

1) First of all, we don't know that we would win duels. It's very likely that some cowboys are good with a gun.

2). Your claim that we can let someone duel a confirmed cowboy is actually a BAD strategy. Why not just vote the person off the island? Why waste a duel when we only have so many? Why risk a duel that we could lose when we can just vote to lynch?

3) Outside of a confirmed cowboy, a duelist is just guessing educationally like voters are. There's no reason they should trump everything else.

4) We no longer have our BG, so they will continue to kill us at night with littel impunity.

5) Voting establishes a public record that can be used to ferret out wolves. That's a proven technique.

6) Without a BG, we no longer have that chance to kill, so duelists may be the only other way to kill wolves sans lynch.

7) There may be more wolves left than good guys who can duel.


The combination of these seven things is a very powerful argument in favor of lynching. Look, I've not voted in every single lynch, because I wanted more information, but we are headed into Day Seven. You gotta start acting.

[Abe Sargent]

Honestly, Swaggs's whole "We shouldn't lynch" arguments are triggering my wolf radar. Is anyone else concerned at this?

[Glengoyne]

Originally Posted by Anxiety

Honestly, Swaggs's whole "We shouldn't lynch" arguments are triggering my wolf radar. Is anyone else concerned at this?

I think the wolf radar is wrong. This isn't straight WW. IF we could vote for anyone, a voting record is much more meaningful. We can only vote for the people in jail. In my mind most of the folks who have been in jail are reasonably cleared so far. Lathum and BK(to a degree) being the exceptions in my mind.

We just need to arrest the right folks. That is something we haven't been doing. I don't think you can really make the case that we should have lynched anyone else that we've had in jail. All of them would have been losing plays. We are only still in the game, because we haven't been aimlessly lynching.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Anxiety

Honestly, Swaggs's whole "We shouldn't lynch" arguments are triggering my wolf radar. Is anyone else concerned at this?

Yes, I would actually like him jailed tonight over path12. I just don't think we can get enough people to vote to lynch him tomorrow even if he was sent to jail. I will certaintly vote to lynch him tomorrow if by some chance he ends up in jail.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Glengoyne

I think the wolf radar is wrong. This isn't straight WW. IF we could vote for anyone, a voting record is much more meaningful. We can only vote for the people in jail. In my mind most of the folks who have been in jail are reasonably cleared so far. Lathum and BK(to a degree) being the exceptions in my mind.

We just need to arrest the right folks. That is something we haven't been doing. I don't think you can really make the case that we should have lynched anyone else that we've had in jail. All of them would have been losing plays. We are only still in the game, because we haven't been aimlessly lynching.

glen, please explain to me who has been in jail and why they are reasonably cleared?

[Swaggs]

I give up.

By all means put me in jail.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

You aren't thinking this through very rationally... I saved a known villager AND made myself virtually useless AND outted my occupation when I was under no heat whatsoever.

If I am a cowboy, my goal is to get even numbers of cowboys and villagers. GE was as good as dead with that lynch vote, which would have cut the number of villagers down by one. If I were a cowboy, wouldn't I want the lynching to be successful, so that I could night kill someone else and get the villagers numbers down by 2, rather than 1?

If both GE and I were under duress, maybe possibly, I would use my power and hang him out to dry. Not the case here. You are wasting your time focussing on me, bullet, or Chubby.

Why not do it early in the game? Doing it before anyone ever suspects you makes people think you are probably safe and thus almost everyone forgets that you could be a Cowboy. Thus if you are a Cowboy, you have a much easier time of staying below the radar.

[hoopsguy]

Back from watching the Bears defense go berserk.

I'm not going to stay up late tonight, but with the lynch of LSG I would like to see if we can find the people who pushed the hardest to put her in jail. I think that information is more useful than the lynch votes today, when 2/3 of the people went in that direction.

I should definitely have more time tomorrow afternoon/evening to participate in the discussion.

In terms of BK in jail, we are not likely to learn more about him tomorrow when he spends an extra day in jail. I am having a hard time understanding why we let Chief Rum and Lathum go in an unproven state while hanging LSG. I'm hoping the logic is not crystal clear at the end of the game

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I give up.

By all means put me in jail.

This is ridiculous to say. Far more people are calling to put myself and Glen in jail tonight then you. I believe only two people have suggested you be put in jail at this point.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Lathum

glen, please explain to me who has been in jail and why they are reasonably cleared?

I have been to jail.

I didn't have a gun to check.

I used my power to save a, now-confirmed, villager when no one was looking at me as a suspect on Day 1.

I think it is a good idea not to aimlessly kill people and give the cowboys better odds to win the game and have repeatedly said why.

I am, according to Racer, and now Anxiety, the best candidate to put in jail and be lynched.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Racer

Why not do it early in the game? Doing it before anyone ever suspects you makes people think you are probably safe and thus almost everyone forgets that you could be a Cowboy. Thus if you are a Cowboy, you have a much easier time of staying below the radar.

Why not save it for when my butt is on the line in order to keep me alive for an extra day?

Why not take the sure kill right then and then get another one the next night, rather than wasting two attempts to kill Golden Eagle?

[Lathum]

swaggs, you are ok with me. Glen seems to be on this kick against me when I have proven I didn't kill anyone, just because the COT I am a part of was formed early in the game doesn't mean it isn't valid yet he keeps at it. It really is starting to raise some flags with me.

[hoopsguy]

As far as Jail decisions - I would scoop up two new people tonight rather than going with repeats like Lathum and Swaggs. As noted earlier, I wonder about the intestinal fortitude to cast the lynch vote. Preferably two people who have claimed not to have guns - validate that claim since a lie here makes for a very easy lynch decision tomorrow.

Secondary list - the people who are pushing at Swaggs. I've played with Swaggs as a good guy and as a bad guy. The fake release is not in keeping with his playing style. It is the kind of crap I would think about doing just to try something different and look for a cool story when the game is over. But that is not Swaggs and people who expect this from him are very likely barking up the wrong tree.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

It is the kind of crap I would think about doing just to try something different and look for a cool story when the game is over.

Exactly. This is something I would think about doing if I was feeling super cocky and didn't really care if we win or lose.

I think hoops and others can also vouch for me, in the times that we have been evil before, that I have no problem cutting ties with a player that is hung out to dry. It's all about self preservation in WW.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Lathum

swaggs, you are ok with me. Glen seems to be on this kick against me when I have proven I didn't kill anyone, just because the COT I am a part of was formed early in the game doesn't mean it isn't valid yet he keeps at it. It really is starting to raise some flags with me.

I personally believe you are likely a villager Lathum. The reason for this is the fact that St. Cronin was the second person to vote to lynch you at 9:45 in the morning when you were in jail. I don't think a Cowboy would vote to lynch another Cowboy unless in was late in the day or it was clear that Cowboy would be lynched by the town. I also don't think a Cowboy would risk starting a bandwagon vote against another Cowboy by placing the second vote against the fellow Cowboy.

[Glengoyne]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

As far as Jail decisions - I would scoop up two new people tonight rather than going with repeats like Lathum and Swaggs. As noted earlier, I wonder about the intestinal fortitude to cast the lynch vote. Preferably two people who have claimed not to have guns - validate that claim since a lie here makes for a very easy lynch decision tomorrow.

Secondary list - the people who are pushing at Swaggs. I've played with Swaggs as a good guy and as a bad guy. The fake release is not in keeping with his playing style. It is the kind of crap I would think about doing just to try something different and look for a cool story when the game is over. But that is not Swaggs and people who expect this from him are very likely barking up the wrong tree.

Why not two people that claim to have guns, aren't cleared, and voted to lynch Gram and GE? I don't know if those two people actually exist, but I do think the short list of folks that voted for those two lynches contains at least a couple of cowboys. Being that there aren't that many people on the list, I think that is a pretty solid direction to go in.

As for the folks in jail. We have Swaggs. He is pretty much as cleared as can be in this game. Our seer(s) are either dead and buried or maybe converted. So there is no help to be had in that regard. All we have are in game actions. CR pretty well seems to come off as a villager as well. He isn't cleared by any stretch, but I think lynching him would have been a losing play. LSG was the same. We had nothing to go on. The lynch votes don't help, because there were clearly other motivations at play with the lynching. Namely that we arrest two people who might actually be wolves. That isn't possible if she is still occupying the cell. Oh we also have Lathum, who was in jail and cleared of killing Thomkal, but little else. I think lynching any of them was a losing play.

Lathum,
On the pseudo circle. It wasn't worthless because it was formed early in the game. It was worthless because it was worthless. Its only function was to prevent an actual CoT from forming earlier. I'm not saying it was insidious in nature, but you folks were stretching its validitity and reliability quite a bit.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Racer

We both received similar PM's after the night one killing. We both heard gunshots, we both had pleasant night sleeps, and we both fell back to sleep shortly after hearing gunshots. Anxiety was the first to mention hearing gunshots. LSG was the first to mention falling back to sleep shortly after hearing the gunshots. I then asked her how her sleep was and she answered pleasant. That is my PM link to LSG and is why I trusted her.

I have to say, all this really proves is that you both live in the same area and didn't kill that night. Either one of you could have been a cowboy and just not killed that night. As a matter of fact, considering that you have been pinning your innocence on two things that are easily explained away (the other being that you voted to jail cronin once), I'm now considering you a big suspect.

Jail Racer

[Chief Rum]

All right, I have been working on this most of the night, so I hope it bears fruit. It took a ton of time trying to get through most of this thread for this.

We need to get the cowboy(s) that have the guns. It is clear one or more are out there. Once we get them, I believe that will get the ball rolling on cleaning up the rest.

So I have nailed down confirmed guns/no guns, roles and confirmed/not confirmed night actions for our five nights. I want to get this information out now, because I have a suspicion my analytical look at things might soon draw the direct attention of the cowboys.

Prior to the revelation of Night 6 Night Actions, there are 14 players left.

So here goes...

GUNS

CONFIRMED GUNS: Lathum, Hoopsguy, Chubby, bulletsponge
CONFIRMED NO GUNS: Swaggs, Barkeep, Chief Rum

NO CONFIRMATION: Spleen, Path, Anxiety, Ntndeacon, Saldana, Racer, Glengoyne

Note: All non-confirms have stated or suggested they don't have guns. Based on roles, it is my belief that spleen (Mortician) and ntndeacon (Priest) are unlikely to have guns, but I won't rule them out just yet.

ROLES

Claimed roles: Chubby (Pinkerton guard), Swaggs (mayor), Barkeep (bartender), Chief Rum (brothel girl), Spleen (mortician), Path (baker), Anxiety (actor), Ntndeacon (priest), Saldana (Banker)

Roles not revealed: Lathum, Hoopsguy, Bulletsponge, Racer, Glengoyne

Note: I have little reason to doubt much of the revealed roles. All but path (baker) and saldana (banker) have pretty much been confirmed through actions, revealed abilties, etc.. I am a little disturbed we don't know the roles of three of the four known gunmen in town.

NIGHT BY NIGHT

We know st cronin was a cowboy without a gun. And we know that Thomkal, Golden Eagle, Grammaticus, Fouts, SnDvls and LoneStarGirl are villagers, removing them as cowboy options on the following nights in question.

NIGHT ONE

Thomkal was gunned down on this night.

CONFIRMED NIGHT ACTIONS (likely excluding kill): Anxiety (at his house), Lathum (visited Anxiety; arrested), Ntndeacon (visited Anxiety), Saldana (sheriff), Bulletsponge (drunk)

CLEARED BY NOT BEING TIRED DAY THREE WITH CONFIRMED NIGHT TWO ACTION OR NO GUN: Chief Rum (used action N2/no gun), Swaggs (no gun), Barkeep (no gun)

Thomkal suspects: Spleen, Path, Racer, Hoopsguy, Chubby, Glengoyne

NIGHT THREE

GoldenEagle was gunned down on this night.

CONFIRMED NIGHT ACTIONS (likely excluding kill): Ntndeacon (sheriff), Swaggs (in jail all night), Chief Rum (arrested, no night action)

CLEARED BY NOT BEING TIRED DAY FOUR OR DAY FIVE OR NO GUN: Barkeep (confirmed Night 4 action from being tired after Night 5, but not after Night 4--concl. must not have been using night action Night 3/no gun)

GoldenEagle suspects: Anxiety, Lathum, Saldana, Bulletsponge, Spleen, Path, Racer, Hoopsguy, Chubby, Glengoyne

NIGHT FIVE

SnDvls was gunned down on this night.

CONFIRMED NIGHT ACTIONS (likely excluding kill): Chubby (sheriff)

CLEARED BY NOT BEING TIRED DAY SIX OR NO GUN: Swaggs (no gun), Barkeep (performed a night action, but arrested without gun), Chief Rum (released from jail without gun)

SnDvls suspects: Ntndeacon, Anxiety, Lathum, Saldana, Bulletsponge, Spleen, Path, Racer, Hoopsguy, Glengoyne

More to come...

[Chief Rum]

From previous post...

NIGHT ONE GUNMAN SUSPECTS

Spleen, Path, Racer, Hoopsguy, Chubby, Glengoyne

NIGHT THREE GUNMAN SUSPECTS

Anxiety, Lathum, Saldana, Bulletsponge, Spleen, Path, Racer, Hoopsguy, Chubby, Glengoyne

NIGHT FIVE GUNMAN SUSPECTS

Ntndeacon, Anxiety, Lathum, Saldana, Bulletsponge, Spleen, Path, Racer, Hoopsguy, Glengoyne

***

All right, let's eliminate some suspects.

I am sure that some of you will argue with some of this. I can see the possibility of Swaggs or bullet or some other well-trusted players being very well-played wolves, but I consider it very unlikely. I think we should consider obvious targets before we go after unlikely wolves.

Having said that, here are players that have demonstrated to me that they are very unlikely to be wolves: Swaggs, Spleen, Chubby, Bulletsponge, Ntndeacon. So I would remove them from the suspects list. That gets us this:

NIGHT ONE GUNMAN SUSPECTS (minus trusted):

Path, Racer, Hoopsguy, Glengoyne

NIGHT THREE GUNMAN SUSPECTS

Anxiety, Lathum, Saldana, Path, Racer, Hoopsguy, Glengoyne

NIGHT FIVE GUNMAN SUSPECTS

Anxiety, Lathum, Saldana, Path, Racer, Hoopsguy, Glengoyne

NIGHT ONE

Path, Racer, Hoopsguy, Glengoyne

None of these four have alibis for this night. Hoops is confirmed to have a gun. Path and Racer are pretty much confirmed to live in the same area as Thomkal did.

NIGHT THREE

Anxiety, Lathum, Saldana, X*Path*X, Racer, Hoopsguy, Glengoyne

Path is not a suspect tonight; Grammaticus BG'd him this night, and confirmed he is not GE's killer.

Anxiety, Lathum, Racer and Glengoyne have no alibi for tonight at all. Saldana was confirmed to arrive home in the area of GE's death by Grammaticus, but Gramm would not go so far as to say he couldn't have done it. Hoopsguy would seem to be cleared, except just being part of the massive scene isn't enough. Neither Chubby nor Gramm were targeting GE, ntn showed up after the brouhaha, and Gramm confirmed bullet also arrived after hoops. Hoops also is armed, and says he was in the area looking in on another player, whom he will not name and says can't confirm his story. There is NO evidence to suggest hoops could not have committed the murder on GE, walked away before Chubby or Gramm could get there, and then double back as a "stunned onlooker".

NIGHT FIVE

Anxiety, Lathum, Saldana, Path, X*Racer*X, Hoopsguy, Glengoyne

Racer seems likely cleared by ntndeacon, who said he met up with Racer on this night to discuss his vices.

None of the others have an alibi at all, although Path once again lives in the same area as SnDvls, the night's victim.

FINAL CONCLUSIONS

All told, we have seven serious wolf candidates here of varying degrees. I would look first at the candidates that made the list on all three nights.

Those would be Hoopsguy and Glengoyne.

This doesn't necessarily exclude the others, but I will give them a spotlight pass because they can be cleared on at least one night. I don't believe there are just two wolves left, so there is very likely to be at least one more amongst the remaining suspects.

I believe we are being masterfully played by a top wolf here, an experienced WW player who also had another terrific player (st cronin) with which to plan. Getting two top players as wolves in a complicated and large game like this is a huge opportunity for mind games, and that's what they have done.

Given all this, I believe you should move to jail Hoopsguy (especially, he's the remaining ringleader) and Glengoyne immediately. Barkeep will be fine in jail for another day, after which we can release him to put in another wolf.

In hopeful anticipation, as I will be gone all day (both jobs today), I will put the following votes out:

VOTE LYNCH HOOPSGUY
VOTE LYNCH GLENGOYNE

If I can find a way to get on in the day time tomorrow, I will. I will also be using my night action tonight on one of these seven suspects.

[spleen1015]

Hopefully Chubby gets to see your posts, CR. Good work. I still believe that Barkeep is still a member of this group. hopefully he doesn't get released tonight and something will happen so that more folks are willing to lynch him today.

JAIL hoopsguy
JAIL Glengoyne

[saldana]

as i was reading through the night's posts, i thought of a whole bunch of stuff to respond to people, but at this point, i just dont understand why people dont see that in order to find the wolves, we have to lynch people


has it not occurred to anyone yet that there might not be a true seer in this game...we seem to have a whole bunch of partial seers in NTN, barkeep, and CR, but its day freakin 7 already...it would be virtually impossible for the seer not to have gotten a hit on someone yet, and this far into the game, with no bodyguard left, even if they only have one hit, they need to spill it, because that gives us 1 cowboy and 6 cleared villagers.

[Barkeep49]

CR that is fantastic work. Job well done. As a note I am now out until about 6 PM today. I will be back at that time to share info and answer any questions that might have been posed.

[Chief Rum]

One quick correction. Racer is the butcher. I misread my notes.

Doesn't matter, though, as that doesn't affect my analysis.

[Alan T]

deadline. sending out night PMs in about 5 minutes

[Alan T]

After the lynching of another villager, the majority of the town walk over to the nearby saloon for drinks and dinner. The conversation there is rather somber and its nearly impossible to get a drink. What type of run down place is this??

Most people end up finishing their dinner and heading home for a good night sleep. At the break of dawn however, word gets around quickly that there had been another murder last night. Saldana was found dead! Can't anyone stop this madness??

Tired players:
Ntndeacon

Current Sheriff:
Chubby

Currently in Jail:
Barkeep
Glengoyne
Hoopsguy

Deadline for Day7: 9:00pm EST Tuesday night. Your current sheriff is still alive, so a new sheriff is not needed. If you wish to elect a new sheriff, please do so by posting:

elect playername

Sheriff election is not mandatory as not voting confirms your desire to keep the current sheriff. For a new sheriff to be elected, they must receive more than 50% of the alive townspeople vote. (7 votes)

There are three valid players for lynch votes today: Barkeep, Glengoyne and Hoopsguy. If you do not post any lynch vote, it is assumed you wish to not lynch them. To lynch players please post as:

Lynch playername.

To lynch multiple players, please post:

Lynch playername
Lynch playername2
Lynch playername3

In order to lynch a player you must receive more than 50% of the alive townspeople's vote. (7 votes)


Edit: Its not monday, its tuesday!

[Barkeep49]

Not that anyone was doubting it, but I think tonight's writeup verifies my being the bartender as tonight would have been the first night I wasn't in the bar at all (Chubby arrested me last night as I was closing the joint down).

Based on the amazing Rum analysis

Execute Glengoyne
Execute Hoopsguy

[Alan T]

Game note: I had previously allowed Chief Rum to make an early vote today due to out of game circumstances. Since both of the people he voted to lynch are in jail, I'm allowing both votes.

Current lynch votes are:

(0) Barkeep -

(2) Glengoyne - Chief Rum (2234), Barkeep (2241)

(2) Hoopsguy - Chief RUm (2234), Barkeep (2241)

[Abe Sargent]

Good Sherlocking Chief Rum!

[Chubby]

To be honest, I had set in my jail orders at the time of my last post so I didn't even see Chief's analysis but I had made my own.

Neither glen nor hoops have claimed a role (trying to dodge the retired judge I suspect).

Glen finally claimed last night that he had no gun after much prodding.


While I don't think Barkeep is a cowboy it was more important to me last night to jail two likely suspects, it seems Chief came to the same conclusion I did and others agree

[Racer]

Lynch Glengoyne
Lynch Hoopsguy

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I am, according to Racer, and now Anxiety, the best candidate to put in jail and be lynched.

Don't put words in my mouth. I never said "best"

[Chubby]

Hoops had a gun, glen did not.

Hoops' gun had not been fired recently. I don't know if it was missing bullets tho.

[Chubby]

I would syggest to spleen NOT to reveal what Saldana's role was until close to lynch time.

We do need to know how Saldana died tho.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Anxiety

Don't put words in my mouth. I never said "best"

To be fair, I never said best either. I have considered Glengoyne the best candidate to be jailed since St. Cronin's death. Prior to to Chief's analysis, I would have put you at a second, followed by path12, followed Hoopsguy. I only ever had a moderate suspisicion of you. I'm sorry if my posts made it seem like I was highly suspicious of you as I am of Glengoyne

[path12]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

NIGHT ONE

Path, Racer, Hoopsguy, Glengoyne

None of these four have alibis for this night. Hoops is confirmed to have a gun. Path and Racer are pretty much confirmed to live in the same area as Thomkal did.

First of all, CR -- that is some fabulous work. Thanks for putting it together.

One small clarification -- I think you mean LSG instead of me here. I didn't get any PM at all the night Thomkal was killed, so I didn't hear any shots.