LXXVII Spawn III: Game Over (See Post 4507)

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Kwhit, Are you planning to stay up tonight and come up with a mining plan using your night AP? I would prefer if possible to try to have someone available to do an away team first thing in the morning if we don't encounter any issues over night

To double check - there are currently zero prepared plans, correct?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by mccollins

To double check - there are currently zero prepared plans, correct?

Correct

[Telle]

Originally Posted by mccollins

Telle, do you have anything in any PMs that coordinates with Hoops' allegation that you were 'concentrating' or 'looking for something'? Any idea to what that might refer?

Not really. I was just wandering around trying not to fall asleep.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by mccollins

I still think they're equally likely to be a spawn and it's equally likely that neither are a spawn. (So, I guess my 'gut math' says 50% none and 25% each for either of the two of them to be spawn.)

And 10% for both to be Spawn.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by mccollins

Let's say with hoops' math they are equally likely to have been spawn from the start. Telle has been on 3 away missions vs. hoops 1 away mission. That's bad for Telle's case because she has more exposure. Hoops only brought back 9 crys (though that could be the scientist's fault) and many people did not like his arguments yesterday (see KWhit's "4 things"). That's bad for Hoops' case.

I still think they're equally likely to be a spawn and it's equally likely that neither are a spawn. (So, I guess my 'gut math' says 50% none and 25% each for either of the two of them to be spawn.)

16 versus 9 seems like really flimsy ground to base any kind of determination when saldana brought back 33 and this game has a heavy RNG element. Not that that was the crux of your argument, at all.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Let me put it this way -- give me a reason other than hunches or general impression that hoops would be a better lynch candidate?

Well I've had two successful exploring missions and one not-so-hot but better than hoops mining mission. So I'd say that's at least something in my favor. But beyond that it is as others have said, a case of he said / she said.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Kwhit, Are you planning to stay up tonight and come up with a mining plan using your night AP? I would prefer if possible to try to have someone available to do an away team first thing in the morning if we don't encounter any issues over night

Yeah, I think so.

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

16 versus 9 seems like really flimsy ground to base any kind of determination when saldana brought back 33 and this game has a heavy RNG element. Not that that was the crux of your argument, at all.

It wasn't the crux of my argument, but I believe I saw multiple people say they would base their vote on it.

The fact that LSG was on Hoops' mission also plays into the result though.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by mccollins

It wasn't the crux of my argument, but I believe I saw multiple people say they would base their vote on it.

The fact that LSG was on Hoops' mission also plays into the result though.

I have to say, anyone who bases their decision on the hoops vs. Telle mining result I will consider to have made their decision based off flipping a coin and will view them accordingly.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

That means of these 6 people who aren't exhausted, there were only 5 beds:

RendeR
claphamsa
The Jackal
LoneStarGirl
PackerFanatic
Chubby

Could one of them be the spawn that does not get exhausted?

I was exhausted yesterday and slept lsat night, I had 1 of the 5 beds. Didn't sleep well, but well enough to remove the exhaustion tag.

[Alan T]

Just so it doesn't get lost in the shuffle... People with outstanding AP for today:

Alan T - 3 AP
Danny - 1 AP
Path - 1 AP
Bullet - 1 AP
Jackal - 1 AP
oliegirl - 1 AP
Pass - 1 AP
Mrs.Schmidty - 1 AP (No action available)

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by RendeR

I was exhausted yesterday and slept lsat night, I had 1 of the 5 beds. Didn't sleep well, but well enough to remove the exhaustion tag.

Right. Since you and PackerFanatic were exhausted Night 1, you guys are probably not the spawn that doesn't get exhausted. That leaves claphamsa, The Jackal, LoneStarGirl, and Chubby.

[jeheinz72]

Here's my breakdown of hoops vs Telle

Known Spawn odds

Telle - 25% as of when hoops tailed here (staring 15% + 10% from first mission). 35% of Spawn at the moment, 45% of Spawnling+ at the moment

Hoops - 15% starting odds, 25% at Spawnling+

Expeditions

Telle - 2 successful explorations. 16 Crys in today's mission, with the less trusted scientist (figuring Packer is less trusted than LSG, though close if any difference)

Hoops - 1 sub-par mission of 9 Crys

Really, the Expedition weight for me isn't heavy. Worth noting.



Now, for me, this whole thing boils down to gains. I bring it back to how would hoops act in each case, Survivor vs Spawn.

In the case of Survivor, I don't see hoops who we generally all believe is a great villager to come after me (a vital role at the moment it happened) with little more than a gut feeling, come after Render (who happens to be the person above him on the food chain), come after Danny (also an Engineer) and now Telle (an officer). I don't see him making 4 pretty big flails when, if he's a Survivor, hoops knows that he just has to wait patiently for an eventual path scan to clear him. I don't think he plays it that agressively.

Now, in the case of hoops as Spawn. I think he absolutely plays it agressively. I think he knows he's going to get scanned, and I think if he dies via the scan, that's ok to him since it at the moment while we can get a new doctor, we can't verify the cleanliness of them. I think hoops came AWFUL close to getting lynched yesterday. I think he takes his shot here with Telle, trumps up a story in a manner that no matter her response he can make it appear as though she's lying. He gets himself into a 1-on-1 situation knowing there are 3 outcomes

A) He gets scanned, which he's probably ok with (better than lynched)
B) He wins the 1-on-1, takes out an officer before he goes
C) He gets lynched, which was a plausible possibility going into today anyhow.

[jeheinz72]

Vote Hoopsguy

[path12]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Well, now it's up to path to do whatever it is he's going to do. The sooner the better. Leaning very, very strongly towards voting for Telle right now.

Catching up. I'm waiting for something specific before scanning. I'll send a PM to Barkeep.

[Alan T]

Vote No execution

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Right. Since you and PackerFanatic were exhausted Night 1, you guys are probably not the spawn that doesn't get exhausted. That leaves claphamsa, The Jackal, LoneStarGirl, and Chubby.

Can't say I'm surprised clap and Jackal could be spawn. I know this is a chunk of jamming a round peg into an already surmised theory but that clap pinging of me combined with hoops just reeked of two wolves in conjunction and Jackal, being someone who can be promoted to doctor and being spawn would aid in the benefit to hoops getting scanned and taking out our present doctor.

Not much, but personally I try to put myself into the minds of the bad guys and figure out what they are thinking. Admiteddly some out there thinking to everyone else, but I like to note them (early and often baby!)

[Tyrith]

Pretty compelling. But hoops has every reason to be aggressive as a villager, too - he'll still get cleared eventually, and he has to be aggressive because the entire darn ship DOESN'T ACTUALLY WANT TO DO ANYTHING. He's generally always probing, stirring up different people -- it's how he plays. And how you might act in each situation does not equate to how he might act, because he generally always seems like a wolf early on because he's the only person actually suggesting someone else is a wolf.

Forget that. I'd rather kill someone that isn't offering any real suggestions about what we should do -- the ultimate, underlying strategy for me is to lynch the quiet people, because they're the ones that don't have to defend themselves. I'm not going to lynch hoops just for doing what he does.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

In the case of Survivor, I don't see hoops who we generally all believe is a great villager to come after me (a vital role at the moment it happened) with little more than a gut feeling, come after Render (who happens to be the person above him on the food chain), come after Danny (also an Engineer) and now Telle (an officer). I don't see him making 4 pretty big flails when, if he's a Survivor, hoops knows that he just has to wait patiently for an eventual path scan to clear him. I don't think he plays it that agressively.

Now, in the case of hoops as Spawn. I think he absolutely plays it agressively. I think he knows he's going to get scanned, and I think if he dies via the scan, that's ok to him since it at the moment while we can get a new doctor, we can't verify the cleanliness of them. I think hoops came AWFUL close to getting lynched yesterday. I think he takes his shot here with Telle, trumps up a story in a manner that no matter her response he can make it appear as though she's lying. He gets himself into a 1-on-1 situation knowing there are 3 outcomes

A) He gets scanned, which he's probably ok with (better than lynched)
B) He wins the 1-on-1, takes out an officer before he goes
C) He gets lynched, which was a plausible possibility going into today anyhow.

This is sort of my thinking too. The other scenario is that they're both Spawn and Hoops knows that they are both likely lost causes. Hoops because of yesterday and because he is always a likely early scan candidate. Telle because she's gone out on the most away missions and has the biggest chance of being a convert.

So maybe Hoops figures he can become trusted by "outing" a spawn today and cruising into a CoT.

This is fairly far-fetched, I suppose, but not out of the realm of posssibility.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Pretty compelling. But hoops has every reason to be aggressive as a villager, too - he'll still get cleared eventually, and he has to be aggressive because the entire darn ship DOESN'T ACTUALLY WANT TO DO ANYTHING. He's generally always probing, stirring up different people -- it's how he plays. And how you might act in each situation does not equate to how he might act, because he generally always seems like a wolf early on because he's the only person actually suggesting someone else is a wolf.

Forget that. I'd rather kill someone that isn't offering any real suggestions about what we should do -- the ultimate, underlying strategy for me is to lynch the quiet people, because they're the ones that don't have to defend themselves. I'm not going to lynch hoops just for doing what he does.

I don't know. I think I have a pretty good read on wolf-hoops. We were both wolves a couple games back and I saw how he played it and called him on the next game when he was a wolf as well.

I think giving him a pass at this crucial of a juncture because he posts a lot, something he'd do in any game, is a mistake.

[RendeR]

So If I read things right we have the following people cleared, for now, and going into the brig tonight:

Alan T
Path12 (??)
Myself

and who else was in there last night?

And I'm thinking Marc Vaughn as the new Doc after what I expect is a path12 scan of him? (hopefully a clean one)

So we should have 5 cleared people safely locked in the Brig tonight?

[LoneStarGirl]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

2nd straight night for Bullet.

is he even playing ?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by KWhit

This is sort of my thinking too. The other scenario is that they're both Spawn and Hoops knows that they are both likely lost causes. Hoops because of yesterday and because he is always a likely early scan candidate. Telle because she's gone out on the most away missions and has the biggest chance of being a convert.

So maybe Hoops figures he can become trusted by "outing" a spawn today and cruising into a CoT.

This is fairly far-fetched, I suppose, but not out of the realm of posssibility.

I actually was thinking something similar actually.. I dont know that it is that far-fetched...

[Telle]

KWhit was also cleared.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by RendeR

So If I read things right we have the following people cleared, for now, and going into the brig tonight:

Alan T
Path12 (??)
Myself

and who else was in there last night?

And I'm thinking Marc Vaughn as the new Doc after what I expect is a path12 scan of him? (hopefully a clean one)

So we should have 5 cleared people safely locked in the Brig tonight?

Why not Schmidty and KWhit? And I can only put 4 in the brig.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by KWhit

This is sort of my thinking too. The other scenario is that they're both Spawn and Hoops knows that they are both likely lost causes. Hoops because of yesterday and because he is always a likely early scan candidate. Telle because she's gone out on the most away missions and has the biggest chance of being a convert.

So maybe Hoops figures he can become trusted by "outing" a spawn today and cruising into a CoT.

This is fairly far-fetched, I suppose, but not out of the realm of posssibility.

If they're both Spawn, I'll just be as happy as anyone. My thinking on that though is, you vote hoops now and keep an eye on Telle. She could have been clean on Day 1 (not infected), clean on Day 2 and just been infected today. I think if hoops gets lynched and is Spawn I'm not clearing Telle. He could've still lied and then coincidence has her become Spawn after the fact. Just like if Telle is lynched and comes up Spawn I'm not clearing hoops, since he left today as well.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by RendeR

So If I read things right we have the following people cleared, for now, and going into the brig tonight:

Alan T
Path12 (??)
Myself

and who else was in there last night?

And I'm thinking Marc Vaughn as the new Doc after what I expect is a path12 scan of him? (hopefully a clean one)

So we should have 5 cleared people safely locked in the Brig tonight?

The warden can only place 4 people into the brig each night. So for now it is probably going to be me, Path, Kwhit like before + either you or Marc.. Which is why I was hoping Path would scan Marc so he could go in the brig. No offense to you since I think 2nd officer is also an important position, but we need to probably lock up the doctor also.

The other possibility is that I could leave the brig since it is obvious that I am part of an absolute trust group and people would know if I got converted.. but I don't think we should take that risk tonight as they could just outright kill me and it might mess up plans for taking off tommorrow.

So summary:

I think brig = Path, kwhit, Alan and Marc Vaughn (if he is scanned by path)

[Barkeep49]

A crewperson passing by notices something strange. He orders a diagnostic of the system. Same thing. He does the math in his head and it isn't right, but the computer is insistant: there are 5 more units of Crystillium than was expected.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Why not Schmidty and KWhit? And I can only put 4 in the brig.

Schmidty is needed for security duty to guard the cargo hold

[LoneStarGirl]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

As the crew waits for the first away mission to finish, hoopsguy take a team out, accompanied by LSG and 3 slaves to also mine Crystillium.

Awesome, I am useful! Am I supposed to get a pm about what happened here?

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

I don't know. I think I have a pretty good read on wolf-hoops. We were both wolves a couple games back and I saw how he played it and called him on the next game when he was a wolf as well.

I think giving him a pass at this crucial of a juncture because he posts a lot, something he'd do in any game, is a mistake.

No, but so is seeking to hunt him because he's the only guy offering much in terms of opinions is also bad. Remember, we've had a ton of no lynch momentum for going on three days now -- there are a lot of trash posts in this thread.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

A crewperson passing by notices something strange. He orders a diagnostic of the system. Same thing. He does the math in his head and it isn't right, but the computer is insistant: there are 5 more units of Crystillium than was expected.

Huh.. interesting.. so 79 total now? I like that news, but unless we know how that happened I'm not sure we can't trust it that it might be bad or fake crystilium... Anyone with ideas of how the extra 5 got in there?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

No, but so is seeking to hunt him because he's the only guy offering much in terms of opinions is also bad. Remember, we've had a ton of no lynch momentum for going on three days now -- there are a lot of trash posts in this thread.

No lynch momentum is not trash posts.. they actually make the most sense

[path12]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Why not Schmidty and KWhit? And I can only put 4 in the brig.

Hoops will be scanned. If he is good, the brig should hold me, Alan, KWhit and hoops. If he's bad I'd suggest just KWhit and Alan, since we have no read on whether or not Schmidty is good or bad -- that whole thing could be a ploy.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Huh.. interesting.. so 79 total now? I like that news, but unless we know how that happened I'm not sure we can't trust it that it might be bad or fake crystilium... Anyone with ideas of how the extra 5 got in there?

My guess is GM miscalculation.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

A crewperson passing by notices something strange. He orders a diagnostic of the system. Same thing. He does the math in his head and it isn't right, but the computer is insistant: there are 5 more units of Crystillium than was expected.

I assume this happened:

Miracle Worker Once per game may activate for one of the following:
* May protect all members of an Away Team from becoming Spawnlings.
* May replenish spontaneously generate an amount of Water or Crystlium

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

My guess is GM miscalculation.

Guess again.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

For what it is worth, I was "lurking around various parts of the ship through-out the night." while following another player.

I don't know of any reason that person should have been in a position to be moving about various parts of the ship, but I'll start looking at private roles to see if something matches up with it.

This post sticks out for me.

For one, it doesn't actually name Telle, or what he saw (perfect way to start the set-up) For two, it came well after he posted on a number of other topics (if you caught someone acting suspicious, wouldn't that darn near be your 1st post of the day?)

On top of it all, why would hoops tail Telle, and not RendeR? He made it clear RendeR was suspect #1A as of yesterday. Why the change (as of the time of night actions, we all know now that RendeR is clean, which is also a convenient fact given the time of this post).

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by KWhit

I assume this happened:

Good call... well that is a nice break.. we still have to have the engines fixed though.

[Chubby]

Got out of work a few mins early, catching up now...

[Telle]

So is a buffer of 4 enough to liftoff with or should we get some more to be safe? One more away mission in the morning?

[path12]

The miracle worker thing was me. I wanted to make sure that went through before my scan.

[bulletsponge]

ok caught up. i have no opinions to give

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

It doesn't. But ultimately, that's the point -- we have significantly more reasons to be suspicious of what we don't know than what we do know, because things we do know are predictable and generally don't try to eat us.

And...ultimately, like I said last night, my default plan was to vote for you today anyway. Probability. It sucks to be a red shirt, sorry.

She's not a redshirt, she's an ensign. The privates are redshirts.

Originally Posted by Telle

*blinks* What? So what do we know that makes you trust hoops more than you trust me?

I have to ask this as well, as we have documented points of hoops doing suspicious things from day 2. Telle has only the act that she's been exposed more often than anyone else going against her. her missions have been successful if not spectacular.

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Pretty compelling. But hoops has every reason to be aggressive as a villager, too - he'll still get cleared eventually, and he has to be aggressive because the entire darn ship DOESN'T ACTUALLY WANT TO DO ANYTHING. He's generally always probing, stirring up different people -- it's how he plays. And how you might act in each situation does not equate to how he might act, because he generally always seems like a wolf early on because he's the only person actually suggesting someone else is a wolf.

Forget that. I'd rather kill someone that isn't offering any real suggestions about what we should do -- the ultimate, underlying strategy for me is to lynch the quiet people, because they're the ones that don't have to defend themselves. I'm not going to lynch hoops just for doing what he does.

The bold part bothers me greatly. The entire ship is trying to get things done to complete the mission, what are you talking about with this accusation? its wrong.

As for Hoops always probing and stirring tihngs up, damn right he does, and I cite the prime example of him stirring things up from the game he was pegged as a wolf and got an extra two days and at least one villager lynched instead of him out of it.

Don't trust him just because he's active, he's ALWAYS active and he's also most DANGEROUS when he's cornered or assuming that he's about to get pegged.

I'm still waiting on something more valid to vote for someone. I really don't see any reason to vote for telle at all, she's done nothing suspicious at this point.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by Alan T

No lynch momentum is not trash posts.. they actually make the most sense

1) No, they don't.
2) Well, there's not a direct causation between them, but we have 2k posts now and without us talking about votes, most of the posts don't really offer anything substantive. Lots of cross posts, trying to figure out the rules, important mission questions that while critical to the gameplay don't really offer us much when it comes to player's allegiances. We don't have two thousand posts of information, for sure.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

This post sticks out for me.

For one, it doesn't actually name Telle, or what he saw (perfect way to start the set-up) For two, it came well after he posted on a number of other topics (if you caught someone acting suspicious, wouldn't that darn near be your 1st post of the day?)

On top of it all, why would hoops tail Telle, and not RendeR? He made it clear RendeR was suspect #1A as of yesterday. Why the change (as of the time of night actions, we all know now that RendeR is clean, which is also a convenient fact given the time of this post).

My gut feeling is that he was going to go after Render and then had to change directions when Schmidty cleared Render.... as Schmidty threw him a curve ball.. but that was my gut feeling that I was trying to not say in thread <.<

[claphamsa]

ok, just a reminder that my weekend plans changed.... so ill be leaving for vacation at abotu 7..... i need to put in conditionals for tommrow. Im gonna shadow Tyrinth (cheif engineer) so whatever he fixes so do i.... I dont think i need anythign else

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

1) No, they don't.
2) Well, there's not a direct causation between them, but we have 2k posts now and without us talking about votes, most of the posts don't really offer anything substantive. Lots of cross posts, trying to figure out the rules, important mission questions that while critical to the gameplay don't really offer us much when it comes to player's allegiances. We don't have two thousand posts of information, for sure.

Mission > Spawn hunting.

[claphamsa]

unless osmoen has another idea

[Danny]

i'm catching up now, anything urgent I need to know about while I do so?