10-31-2006, 10:42 AM | #2201 |
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Yep, we're waiting on Fouts right now.
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10-31-2006, 11:16 AM | #2202 |
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Haha good one chubby. I dont even watch the houston texans, so there... I feel so special getting night killed for the first time.
But why me? thats weird? I would expect fouts... but maybe the zombies didn't think i would be protected so it would be an easy kill. Good luck STARS |
10-31-2006, 12:31 PM | #2203 |
Unregistered
Join Date: May 2004
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Wow, LSG?! Interesting and calculated kill, but as LSG mentioned, the zombie/s probably didn't expect her to be guarded.
So we're down to 7. 4-1-2 maybe? Or 4-2-1? The numbers are still on our side which leaves me hopeful. |
10-31-2006, 01:00 PM | #2204 |
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Eight, actually. Possibly no lynch today, depending on what the remaining Umbrella decide to do.
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10-31-2006, 01:01 PM | #2205 |
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Er, forgot about the lynch yesterday. Right, only seven.
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10-31-2006, 01:01 PM | #2206 |
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Double dola, we should still control the lynch today, but we gotta make it count.
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10-31-2006, 01:51 PM | #2207 |
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I am shocked at being alive still. Give me a sec.
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10-31-2006, 01:56 PM | #2208 |
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Well, I decided to view BrianD because I felt strongly that spleen was a zombie and I wanted to see if Brian was working with him. BrianD is Umbrella.
So we are either at 4-2-1 or 3-2-2. vote spleen |
10-31-2006, 02:17 PM | #2209 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Fouts, that logic seems very backwards to me - why not view Spleen first? Now we are guessing between Spleen and Dodgerchick today. I thought we had agreed that there was almost no scenario where BrianD was a Zombie acting alone?
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10-31-2006, 02:19 PM | #2210 | |
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Quote:
He didn't scan me. He is guessing at what I am to try to get me to admit being bad when he really scanned someone else. If he had really scanned me he would see that I am STARS. Smart play Fouts, but you guessed the wrong person. |
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10-31-2006, 02:24 PM | #2211 |
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How certain are we that there are two zombies, and not just one?
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10-31-2006, 02:24 PM | #2212 |
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Dola, it makes a big difference in how to play today.
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10-31-2006, 02:25 PM | #2213 |
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Double dola, interesting that Umbrella hasn't made a move yet. Who are they waiting for?
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10-31-2006, 02:25 PM | #2214 |
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MrW, not certain at all. Umbrella would like us to believe there are two, but no way of knowing.
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10-31-2006, 02:32 PM | #2215 |
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Dang fouts, I thought you were gonna scan spleen or myself, now that's gonna leave us in a tight situation as I thought you would have cleared me.
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10-31-2006, 02:34 PM | #2216 |
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This will be my one post for the day on my lunch break. I won't be able to be back until later tonight, after the deadline.
Of course, I am sticking with my vote from yesterday. LYNCH SPLEEN Good hunting, everyone.
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10-31-2006, 02:35 PM | #2217 |
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Before I went to bed last night I thought the chances of Fouts as Umbrella were about 3%. That number moves up with BrianD as his scan choice for last night, just not sure how high I put the number now.
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10-31-2006, 02:36 PM | #2218 |
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10-31-2006, 02:36 PM | #2219 |
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Chief, yesterday you said that Spleen was a Zombie. You also said that you would likely not vote with STARS if we lynched an Umbrella yesterday.
We lynched a Zombie. Today you are voting for the guy you called a Zombie last night. What gives? |
10-31-2006, 02:39 PM | #2220 | |
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Quote:
Let me guess, you are claiming a vanilla STARS role, right? |
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10-31-2006, 02:40 PM | #2221 |
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Dola - correction on above post (#2219)
We lynched an Umbrella (not a Zombie). Today you are voting for the guy you called a Zombie last night. What gives? |
10-31-2006, 02:42 PM | #2222 |
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10-31-2006, 02:43 PM | #2223 | |
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Quote:
Well, my theory was good last night. Doesn't look as good with Brian not being a zombie. At least it wasn't as bad as the zombies choice for a kill last night. |
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10-31-2006, 02:46 PM | #2224 |
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So who did you really scan last night Fouts?
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10-31-2006, 02:47 PM | #2225 |
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10-31-2006, 02:48 PM | #2226 |
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MrW - sniper
Hoops - bodyguard Fouts - IA? no Zombies identified yet Chief - Umbrella (admitted) Brian - Umbrella per Fouts DC - ??? Spleen - Zombie per Chief Occam's Razor suggests that Brian is the 2nd Umbrella with Chief. Just not sure I buy the Razor at the moment ... |
10-31-2006, 02:50 PM | #2227 |
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If we look at it from Chief's perspective, which faction does he want us to lynch today?
If it is 3-2-2 or 4-2-1, I think he wants us to lynch STARS. He knows we have the advantage. |
10-31-2006, 02:51 PM | #2228 |
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I love WW
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10-31-2006, 02:54 PM | #2229 |
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Every day Chief/Umbrella wants us to lose STARS unless doing so hands the game to the Zombies.
No matter what ratio we have right now (3-2-2 or 4-2-1) he wants us to lycnh STARS today. Of course, if it was 3-2-2 then the Zombies could potentially double kill at night for the win (25% chance). SnDvls, I share the sentiment. |
10-31-2006, 02:56 PM | #2230 |
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We could lynch Chief, if we're worried about lynching a STARS.
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10-31-2006, 02:57 PM | #2231 |
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Umbrella was not in a position to win yesterday, but they were certainly in a position to take control of the game. Therefore, I believe the following:
- Primary motivation: save their own guy - Secondary motivation: lead a lynch of a STARS member Chief voted for Spleen last night and again today. I will not be voting for Spleen today. VOTE DODGERCHICK |
10-31-2006, 02:58 PM | #2232 |
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We'll I was 60/40 in favor of lynching spleen until Chief's vote. Now its a toss-up.
vote dodgerchick |
10-31-2006, 02:59 PM | #2233 |
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Fouts, if I knew that there was only one Zombie left I would strongly consider voting for Chief.
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10-31-2006, 02:59 PM | #2234 |
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I screwed that up.
unvote spleen vote dodgerchick |
10-31-2006, 02:59 PM | #2235 |
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I wouldn't say Chief is "admitted" Umbrella, I would say he's "avowed" Umbrella.
The trouble for Umbrella is that they still need to clear out at least one zombie to have a chance at winning. If there's really only one Umbrella left, though, that player is cooked as either Umbrella or STARS would get to their victory condition first.
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10-31-2006, 03:00 PM | #2236 |
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VOTE DodgerChick
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10-31-2006, 03:01 PM | #2237 | |
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Quote:
Yeah, it is risky. If you were a zombie, would you only attempt one kill last night? The night you were attacked, do you think it was our current zombie plus path making kill attempts? And path was killed after he attacked you? |
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10-31-2006, 03:03 PM | #2238 |
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I had BrianD pegged as Umbrella. He thinks Chief is still on his side, so I can see him playing this way.
STARS - Mr. W, hoops, Fouts, spleen Umbrella - Brian D Zombie - Chief Rum (converted Umbrella), Dodgerchick |
10-31-2006, 03:03 PM | #2239 |
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What I'm trying to decided is: would 2 zombies only attempt 1 kill last night?
The night path died, there was one kill + an attack on hoops. Did path get off his action that night before going down? |
10-31-2006, 03:06 PM | #2240 |
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What's our play if DodgerChick turns out to be STARS?
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10-31-2006, 03:08 PM | #2241 | |
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Why they might not: only killing one STARS would potentially leave STARS in control of the vote, where it's probably better for the zombies for none of the factions to have a majority.
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10-31-2006, 03:08 PM | #2242 |
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Vote Dodgerchick
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10-31-2006, 03:15 PM | #2243 |
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MrW, if we have a bad lynch today then:
3-2-1, Zombies take their shot with a night kill, I have a 33% chance of blocking it. 2-2-2 Zombies can go for the win or play it cautiously with their night kill by going for an Umbrella knowing that I'm much more likely to defend a known STARS. You have the option to use your night Snipe in either scenario. |
10-31-2006, 03:44 PM | #2244 | |
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If Mr. W is wrong, we lose both him and the target. Game over. |
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10-31-2006, 03:47 PM | #2245 |
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10-31-2006, 03:50 PM | #2246 |
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Well... from the looks of it, I'm a gonner. I've attempted a defense in prior games and have yet to be successful because I'm just not persuasive, or have the experience most of you have.
By lynching me you will not lynch a zombie, unfortunately. So I'm gonna have to vote spleen Spleen is trying WAAAAAAY too hard which seems suspicious and the voting record speaks for itself. Of course after he was found out, he "went along with the crowd" as a sort of cover. I'm gonna be super, super busy getting the kids ready for trick-or-treat so I'll be gone for several hours and I hope to come back by lynch. |
10-31-2006, 03:55 PM | #2247 |
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The zombies were hoping that you would still be focused on me today. Plus, have 2 go for 1 is a 100% kill where 2 for 2 is only 50%.
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10-31-2006, 04:05 PM | #2248 |
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Having two attempt kills has a 25% chance of no kill, 50% chance of one kill, 25% chance of two kills.
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10-31-2006, 04:06 PM | #2249 | |
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Umbrella is not going to win this one. Neither are the zombies. We tried a bluff yesterday with the claim that there were two zombies remaining, but nobody bought it. All we can do now is take out the last zombie and move on. |
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10-31-2006, 04:11 PM | #2250 | |
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Fouts, I wish you had scanned someone else but after a review of Day 2 posts I believe your scan results.
Post #772 Quote:
Vote at the time? Lathum (Umbrella) - 5 Cronin (STARS) - 4 SnDvls (Umbrella) - 3 Brian (Umbrella) -2 Alan (STARS) - 2 Then Chief (Umbrella) rolled in and initially voted for Cronin to tie it up, before switching when he realized how that could play out for his faction. |
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