2012 Presidential Campaign

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

He needs a better campaign team to compete. From everything I've read, he was a really good manager for Bain. Handles people well and puts the right people in the right positions. Astounding to me that they aren't making that his narrative and instead getting caught up in slap fights with Harry Reid and complimenting his own health care package that he's supposed to be against.

Someone in the GOP needs to get in there and clean house for him. Get some people who know what they're doing. All they had to do was say the ad was baseless and slimy (which it was).

Not to overstate the obvious, but his problem is that, while he is not a bad presidential candidate, he is a bad candidate for the GOP. He can't talk about being governor, because he was governor of a very liberal state. He can't talk about his crowning governing accomplishments, because "socialized medical care" and cooperating with a Democratic legislature are sins to the GOP base. He can't talk about how strong his faith is, because he is Mormon.

The stuff he had left (business success, strong family history/values, etc.), he has allowed the Obama campaign to narrate for him.

To me, the big surprise is seeing what a lightweight he has been since wrapping up the GOP nomination and how poor the other primary candidates were. It will be interesting to see if he uses his money to firebomb the airwaves down the stretch and whether or not it will matter by then.

[stevew]

I shudder if he loses a close race that he will use it as a springboard to run again in 2016

[rowech]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Not to overstate the obvious, but his problem is that, while he is not a bad presidential candidate, he is a bad candidate for the GOP. He can't talk about being governor, because he was governor of a very liberal state. He can't talk about his crowning governing accomplishments, because "socialized medical care" and cooperating with a Democratic legislature are sins to the GOP base. He can't talk about how strong his faith is, because he is Mormon.

The stuff he had left (business success, strong family history/values, etc.), he has allowed the Obama campaign to narrate for him.

To me, the big surprise is seeing what a lightweight he has been since wrapping up the GOP nomination and how poor the other primary candidates were. It will be interesting to see if he uses his money to firebomb the airwaves down the stretch and whether or not it will matter by then.

Ultimately, he can't win because both parties tear him down.

[albionmoonlight]

This election reminds of the 1994 NBA Finals between the Kicks and Rockets. Thuggish. Ugly. Unpleasant to watch. Both sides deciding that trying to out-neanderthal the other side is the best way to win. Happy to see it end.

Presidential politics is always hardball. But you can still manage to have some aesthetically pleasing moments. President Reagan's calls to renewed patriotism and Morning in America. President Clinton's personal charisma and masterful political triangulation. President Obama's 2008 Hope and Change.

In contrast, this election is like watching Charles Oakley punch Hakeem Olajuwon in the kidneys over and over, forever.

[MacroGuru]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

. He can't talk about how strong his faith is, because he is Mormon.

I don't see why not? Because of the bible belt? Because people call Mormon's a cult?

The mormon faith and those who follow it's ideals (Not the crazed radicals, or the FLDS, RLDS or any of those who have spun off) are pretty tough to point to and say you aren't livng right.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by MacroGuru

I don't see why not? Because of the bible belt? Because people call Mormon's a cult?

The mormon faith and those who follow it's ideals (Not the crazed radicals, or the FLDS, RLDS or any of those who have spun off) are pretty tough to point to and say you aren't livng right.

But the right-wing religious Republicans mostly do consider Mormons a cult-ish religion. Playing up his Mormon faith will turn off a lot of them. Is it fair? No. But what exactly in politics is fair?

[JPhillips]

Yeah, remember that at one point in the primaries a bunch of right-wing Christian leaders got together to discuss how they could get anyone other than Romney elected. If he ever started to discuss what he believes as a Mormon he'd be finished.

[MacroGuru]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Yeah, remember that at one point in the primaries a bunch of right-wing Christian leaders got together to discuss how they could get anyone other than Romney elected. If he ever started to discuss what he believes as a Mormon he'd be finished.

I don't think so now...they have a choice, Romney or Obama and most of them despise Obama. So their choice to them would be the lesser of two evils.

Which brought to mind this funny little music video that someone did.

[JPhillips]

Too many would stay home. It would make it nearly impossible to win OH, VA or FL.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

This election reminds of the 1994 NBA Finals between the Kicks and Rockets. Thuggish. Ugly. Unpleasant to watch. Both sides deciding that trying to out-neanderthal the other side is the best way to win. Happy to see it end.

Presidential politics is always hardball. But you can still manage to have some aesthetically pleasing moments. President Reagan's calls to renewed patriotism and Morning in America. President Clinton's personal charisma and masterful political triangulation. President Obama's 2008 Hope and Change.

In contrast, this election is like watching Charles Oakley punch Hakeem Olajuwon in the kidneys over and over, forever.

So, what silliness plays the part of the OJ getaway?

And I would just like to take this opportunity to remind everyone just how awesome Hakeem was because it's been more than 15 years and sometimes people forget.

SI

[SirFozzie]

Romney still has to do "dog-whistle" stuff to assure the base that he's one of them (see "Obama's war on religion" ad he just released).. which allows Obama to strike a more middlish post (capturing all the rage of the middle class at Wall Street and the corporate raiders by constantly bringing up "Vulture Capitalist" stuff by Bain)..

One side still is out on the right wing and hasn't pivoted back to the middle just a couple weeks before the convention, while the other side, is working a middle-ish issue to constanty;y chip away the moderates from Romney.

[larrymcg421]

I actually think Obama has run a very good campaign so far. Romney is the challenger, but Obama has put him on the defensive. He's setting the terms of the campaign so far and Romney seems completely lost. Despite unemployment of over 8%, he's still leading in both national and state polls, and doing especially well in the latter. I wish Obama was as good fighting Congress as he's been fighting both McCain and Romney.

[molson]

Why is Romney still so concerned with his base? Money? It seems like he should be able to bank on anti-Obama sentiment to keep that rolling in. In theory, the slide-towards-the-middle post-nomination stage SHOULD be a real strength for Romney, but he's afraid or unwilling to go there. If Republicans wanted base values instead of electability, they should have just nominated Santorum.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by molson

Why is Romney still so concerned with his base? Money? It seems like he should be able to bank on anti-Obama sentiment to keep that rolling in. In theory, the slide-towards-the-middle post-nomination stage SHOULD be a real strength for Romney, but he's afraid or unwilling to go there. If Republicans wanted base values instead of electability, they should have just nominated Santorum.

Because he's not going to get enough Dems to flip on Barry. He HAS to create enough of a connection with the right-wing to get them to come out for him or he loses.

[JPhillips]

The last I saw only 7 or 8 percent of people were undecided. For every one of those he could swing by talking about his health care in MA he would lose two from his base. The reality is that the GOP is so far to the right that you can't appeal to them and undecideds at the same time.

[GrantDawg]

Tomorrow at 9am. Who will it be?

News from The Associated Press

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Would love to see Ryan. Hope it happens.

[lungs]

My sources tell me it's going to be Joe the Plumber.

[RainMaker]

Should be interesting, he definitely needed to get this out quickly. I think it has to be Ryan or Pawlenty. He just can't do Portman after the recent shift in polls.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

I wish Obama was as good fighting Congress as he's been fighting both McCain and Romney.

Don't give Obie too much credit there. Neither of the half-assed SOB's he's faced in an election has been worth a tinker's dam as a candidate. He's never faced a meaningful opponent, all he has to do is not screw a goat on the town square and his guaranteed votes are more than his opponent's bring to the table with them.

Far more impressive is his win over Hillary in the primary.

[MrBug708]

Paul Ryan?

[Izulde]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Paul Ryan?

Yep.

So if he's nominated and the Republicans lose, does he lose his seat in Congress? (which would be awesome).

[stevew]

He probably would still run. That would mean his district will get to spend money on a special election to fill the seat if he is Veep

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Izulde

So if he's nominated and the Republicans lose, does he lose his seat in Congress? (which would be awesome).

Nope. See Sen. McCain & Sen. Kerry.

Also, it appears that least three (LBJ, Bentsen, Lieberman) were simultaneously candidates for vice president and senator.

[Toddzilla]

WOW Did you see that Romney chosZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Toddzilla

WOW Did you see that Romney chosZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

LOL

[JonInMiddleGA]

Not seeing Ryan - once he faces a closer examination - as exactly inspiring to a number of already doubtful voters.

-Voted YES on TARP (2008)
-Voted YES on Economic Stimulus HR 5140 (2008)
-Voted YES on $15B bailout for GM and Chrysler. (Dec 2008)
-Voted YES on $192B additional anti-recession stimulus spending. (Jul 2009)
-Voted YES on providing $70 million for Section 8 Housing vouchers. (Jun 2006)
-Voted YES on extending unemployment benefits from 39 weeks to 59 weeks. (Oct 2008)
-Voted YES on Head Start Act (2007)

[Crapshoot]

Wait seriously? Ryan has been seen as the GOP Golden Boy for the past year and a half.

[SirFozzie]

The bases for both wings love it.. the conservatives love it because they think "Finally, a REAL conservative on the ticket.. (with the real looneys plotting on how to get Romney out of the way if elected)..and the liberals saying "Sure, we can tell everyone under 55 you want to "end medicare". That'll play realllllll well with the people that you need to win the election.

Seriously, both parties love this pick, as it will fire up the base(s). I don't think the pick will change the narrative right now (instead of the drumbeat of "Why won't Romney release his tax returns".;. we'll get "Why does Paul Ryan want to end Medicare?".. AND "Why won't Romney release his tax returns..."

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

Wait seriously? Ryan has been seen as the GOP Golden Boy for the past year and a half.

{shrug} Depends upon who you ask I reckon.

[RainMaker]

Not sure what to think of it. They lose Florida now but maybe the plan is to try and get the Midwest to flip instead.

[JPhillips]

It certainly nationalizes the whole election. Every Senate and House race is now partially about supporting the Ryan budget.

[Ksyrup]

Curious about the timing of this. Is it normal? Isn't shortly after midnight Saturday morning the time you usually announce settling a sexual harrassment claim or something? Is the goal to minimize publicity for 2 days so they can formulate a plan to combat the negatives by the time Monday morning news programs start? That's about the only thing that makes sense to me.

[bronconick]

Apparently, it isn't that odd. Palin was chosen on a Friday, and Obama's campaign sent a 3am Saturday text message out about Biden for a 3pm intro event.

The 9am thing kind of strikes me as odd. Half or more of the country is still asleep.

[tarcone]

The Olympic broadcasting doesnt start until 10 am EST. I imagine that had something to do with the timing.

[M GO BLUE!!!]

Don't think this hurts Romney. Don't think it helps either. It's doubling down for the Tea Party vote, which would have voted Romney if he selected Barney Frank.

[claphamsa]

I was at Miami with Ryan. man Im old

[mckerney]

According to 538 Ryan's favorability in Wisconsin is almost as bad as Pawlenty's in Minnesota. That's impressive.

[ISiddiqui]

I don't think running on the Ryan budget is a great idea for Mitt Romney... the whole avoiding policy issues was actually working for him... not so much now.

[JonInMiddleGA]

I'm just waiting for 2016 or 2020.

Kurt Angle tweeted the following Friday night:

I’m Gonna Run for Office. Boost Economy, Alter Obamacare to Work for all Of Us. And create More Jobs. That’s It!

Start out as Mayor, then Congressman, then Governor. I Made Mistakes but I Also Have Done Awesome things. I’m Excited.

Best response to that I've seen so far has to be
Somebody needs to run a breathalyzer on Kurt's computer, it keep drunk tweeting

[cuervo72]

He seems to like capitalized words.

[Vegas Vic]

Right now, Obama enjoys about a 3 to 4 point lead in the national polls, and he's ahead in most of the states that he carried in 2008, albeit by narrower margins.

The only VP pick who directly influenced the outcome of the election was JFK's pick of LBJ in 1960. Like the vast majority of VP candidates over history, I don't see Ryan having any influence either way.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Saw this from an online wonk while Googling up Ryan's voting record

It shouldn’t be long before Democratic operatives put together an ad featuring something Paul Ryan said while asking his House colleagues to vote for the politically toxic TARP bill on the House floor:

“Madame Speaker, this bill offends my principles. But I’m going to vote for this bill in order to preserve my principles.”

He's got some plus marks in his column (his votes on defense & energy look pretty sound, more often than not he's been okay on social issues) but his economic votes don't seem to match his economic rhetoric. That's a pretty hefty albatross to hang around the neck of a guy who appears to have been chosen on the basic of economic policy.

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Saw this from an online wonk while Googling up Ryan's voting record



He's got some plus marks in his column (his votes on defense & energy look pretty sound, more often than not he's been okay on social issues) but his economic votes don't seem to match his economic rhetoric. That's a pretty hefty albatross to hang around the neck of a guy who appears to have been chosen on the basic of economic policy.

Both parties are full of this crap right now because around January 20, 2009, congress critters just traded each other the scripts they had been using. We had months of quotes from Obama and Republican leaders saying the exact opposite in 2007-08 compared to 2010-11 when it came to the debt ceiling. Fun stuff.

The TV guys after Ryan's speech were thinking that this was going to mean "issues would be debated and key in this campaign because they're so obviously different on them now." I couldn't help but laugh.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by bronconick

The TV guys after Ryan's speech were thinking that this was going to mean "issues would be debated and key in this campaign because they're so obviously different on them now." I couldn't help but laugh.

Tough spot to be in (for the talking heads), because if you're honest then the audience is less inclined to watch. And that -- not anything else -- is really their job. And with the economy such as it is, integrity has gotten sort of tough to argue for versus the reality of a paycheck.

[Grover]

"I should probably just shut up about Paul Ryan, because I believe there’s a federal statute requiring pundits to marvel at his “seriousness” and “courage.” I think there’s also a constitutional mandate enshrining him as a “deficit hawk,” even though he voted for the Bush tax cuts, the Bush military and security spending binge, the Medicare prescription drug benefit, the bank bailout and the auto bailout, and against the Bowles-Simpson deficit reduction plan. So I think for now I’ll just repost my screed about the Ryan plan from April 2011, suggesting that fuzzy math in the service of Tea Party ideology is not all that brave." - Time’s Michael Grunwald

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Grover

"I should probably just shut up about Paul Ryan, because I believe there’s a federal statute requiring pundits to marvel at his “seriousness” and “courage.” I think there’s also a constitutional mandate enshrining him as a “deficit hawk,” even though he voted for the Bush tax cuts, the Bush military and security spending binge, the Medicare prescription drug benefit, the bank bailout and the auto bailout, and against the Bowles-Simpson deficit reduction plan. So I think for now I’ll just repost my screed about the Ryan plan from April 2011, suggesting that fuzzy math in the service of Tea Party ideology is not all that brave." - Time’s Michael Grunwald

Tame compared to Matt Taibbi

Paul Ryan, the Republican Party’s latest entrant in the seemingly endless series of young, prickish, over-coiffed, anal-retentive deficit Robespierres they’ve sent to the political center stage in the last decade or so, has come out with his new budget plan. All of these smug little jerks look alike to me – from Ralph Reed to Eric Cantor to Jeb Hensarling to Rand Paul and now to Ryan, they all look like overgrown kids who got nipple-twisted in the halls in high school, worked as Applebee’s shift managers in college, and are now taking revenge on the world as grownups by defunding hospice care and student loans and Sesame Street. They all look like they sleep with their ties on, and keep their feet in dress socks when doing their bi-monthly duty with their wives.

Every few years or so, the Republicans trot out one of these little whippersnappers, who offer proposals to hack away at the federal budget. Each successive whippersnapper inevitably tries, rhetorically, to out-mean the previous one, and their proposals are inevitably couched as the boldest and most ambitious deficit-reduction plans ever seen. Each time, we are told that these plans mark the end of the budgetary reign of terror long ago imposed by the entitlement system begun by FDR and furthered by LBJ.

Never mind that each time the Republicans actually come into power, federal deficit spending explodes and these whippersnappers somehow never get around to touching Social Security, Medicare or Medicaid. The key is that for the many years before that moment of truth, before these buffoons actually get a chance to put their money where their lipless little mouths are, they will stomp their feet and scream about how entitlements are bringing us to the edge of apocalypse.

[Marc Vaughan]

I'm all for showing policies and the effects of plans etc. ... but god gawds sake make them accurate and don't lie.

Who is fighting for the middle class? President Obama versus Mitt Romney. — Barack Obama

I entered my details - no huge surprise apparently I'll be better off under Obama, hey ho its an Obama site.

But wait I'm a software engineer, I can't resist 'testing' things ..

So entered $10m as the income $245,551 in savings apparently at that level - interesting, changed the input to $1m instead apparently savings are identical ($245k) ... odd I thought, entered $995,000 and apparently $36,319 in savings instead.

Apparently if you earn $997,499 then you get $36,319 in savings under Romney - but if you earn $997,500 then you get $245,551 in savings.

That means that basically the Romney plan involves giving a 25% tax cut to people once they get to $997,500 retroactively placed upon earnings under that amount (ie. earning that extra dollar effectively earns you over $200k) .... does this sound a tad screwy to anyone else? ... now I'm far more pro-Democrat than Republican but I HATE misleading information from any politicial party.

[GrantDawg]

Pretty cute story on keeping the selection secret.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...87919120120812

[cartman]

This is interesting. The letter of the law does seem to support the Libertarians' position.

Libertarians Sue to Have Romney Kicked Off Washington Ballot | Slog