2012 MLB Thread (Cabrera Gets Triple Crown, first since Yaz 1967)

[stevew]

Wonder if the Phillies will go into full on sell mode, especially with Hamels and Victorino. 1 draft pick for losing each isn't much of a compensation.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by stevew

Wonder if the Phillies will go into full on sell mode, especially with Hamels and Victorino. 1 draft pick for losing each isn't much of a compensation.

The new rules confuse me--I am not even sure if they'll get a pick. Pretty sure they will on Hamels, but Victorino? Not so sure...

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

The new rules confuse me--I am not even sure if they'll get a pick. Pretty sure they will on Hamels, but Victorino? Not so sure...

Need to make a qualifying offer to get a draft pick - 1 yr, $12M. I think they'll offer both. Perversely, because a traded player can't get comp picks, it means a team that trades for them can't get a draft pick and will give up less than a team that keeps them. Which means Selig in his genius, has made trading more unlikely.

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by rowech

Yeah...no douchebags on the Cardinals either.

In looking closer, LaRussa essentially made only four selections that cut out Cueto and Phillips due to him having to choose someone from each team to fill the roster out.

He selected Paplebon, Hamels, Kershaw, and Bruce.

Kershaw I won't argue. The other three -- I just don't see it. I can see why Phillips didn't end up making the team. Cueto not making it is pathetic.

Bitch about LaRussa all you want, I'm not a fan of his either.

The All Star game is a fucking joke, always has been.

[rowech]

Something tells me the Reds season just turned downward with that idiotic play.

[rowech]

Worse yet is them giving that a hit. What a joke.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

Need to make a qualifying offer to get a draft pick - 1 yr, $12M. I think they'll offer both. Perversely, because a traded player can't get comp picks, it means a team that trades for them can't get a draft pick and will give up less than a team that keeps them. Which means Selig in his genius, has made trading more unlikely.

Thanks, Crapshoot. The QO on Hamels is a no-brainer. I may not be privy to Victorino's latest numbers off of the top of my head, but if he's worth $12 M for a year, I'll be surprised. But with the way salaries go up, who knows?

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Thanks, Crapshoot. The QO on Hamels is a no-brainer. I may not be privy to Victorino's latest numbers off of the top of my head, but if he's worth $12 M for a year, I'll be surprised. But with the way salaries go up, who knows?

But think about it this way - would you rather give Victorino a 1/ $12M offer which he may not take, or 4/36? I think I'd rather give 1/12. The beauty of the Qualifying offer is that its a 1-year deal, and I defer to someone who said there's no such thing as an awful 1 year deal.

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by rowech

Worse yet is them giving that a hit. What a joke.

Yeah, that was ridiculous. Bruce, to his credit, called it an error afterwords.

I thought the Giants were done after the top of the 9th where the bases were loaded with no outs.

[Subby]

#BryceIn12

Good article by Law on the all-star snubs and what the all-star game is all about.
----
Sunday's announcements of the All-Star rosters didn't produce as many shocks for me as past years' rosters did, especially given that I've already accepted that the players and managers don't quite grasp the part about saves being a meaningless statistic. There were a few gross omissions, a few bad choices, but only a couple that should raise anyone's ire.

And, just to make sure we can get our usual batch of comments from people who didn't read the explanation in the intro, here's my philosophy on the All-Star Game. It doesn't count. It's an exhibition, a single night for MLB to show itself off to the country on national television -- and in a lot of other countries, as well. The biggest stars should be here. This should not be a list of the guys who had the best Opening Day-through-Memorial Day runs of anyone in baseball. It should include established stars, even if they didn't get off to the greatest starts this year. And there should be room for younger emerging stars, guys in their early 20s who have graduated from prospect status and are starting to perform up to (or even above) expectations. But the half-year wonders can wait until they prove it for more than just 60-70 games.

American League

The starters are mostly quite reasonable, especially given that the voting usually takes the worst aspects of "popularity contest" and "Who had the best April?" and produces a hybrid monster that is scarcely viable. In this case, the most egregious choice is probably taking Derek Jeter on career value over Elvis Andrus on present value, and I can't really argue that -- Jeter is one of the few players in MLB whose fame transcends the sport, and having him in the game (as long as he's not terrible) makes sense for an event aimed at the casual and potential fans, not the hard-core ones. I would have taken Joe Mauer over Mike Napoli to start behind the plate, and probably would have taken Miguel Cabrera (stone feet and all) at third base over Adrian Beltre, but both alternatives are on the bench anyway.

That bench, on the other hand, includes a few whoppers. If you're obsessed with current-season performance, Austin Jackson certainly belongs on the team over Mark Trumbo, a disaster with the glove whose early-season walk-rate spike has disappeared. And why do we have two reserve designated hitters in Billy Butler and Adam Dunn, neither of whom has any place on this team? Choosing Butler as the token Royal with Mike Moustakas, having a superior year and, more importantly, able to play a position and do it fairly well, is odd, and you could make a good case for Alex Gordon (who performed last year, as well) over both guys. Dunn's selection seems to be a nod to homers and RBIs; with his lack of defensive value, he's well behind guys such as Gordon and Jackson.

Returning to the original theme of the All-Star Game as a marketing event, however, why isn't Albert Pujols on the roster in lieu of either of those DHs or Trumbo? He's one of the greatest right-handed hitters in the history of the game and, after a slow start, has started to resemble the Pujols of 2011. He's a name known to non-ans. He's headed for the Hall of Fame. He's certainly not a liability in this game, even if he's behind Paul Konerko on the depth chart. He should be here.

The starting pitchers on the staff are mostly strong selections. Justin Verlander, CC Sabathia, Felix Hernandez and Jered Weaver have more than enough track record, not to mention name recognition. Chris Sale has been outstanding all year, after a strong year in relief last year, so, even without the track record of the other starters, he clearly belongs on merit. The worst starter selection, Matt Harrison, is having a good half-season, but he has no track record and is almost certainly here because he has 11 pitcher-wins, not because there's anything about his case that justifies his inclusion over superior Jake Peavy.

The joke here is that it seems like every closer in the American League is on the roster. Making Ryan Cook an All-Star on the basis of 34 fluky innings -- and making him the token Athletic instead of Josh Reddick, who has 18 home runs -- means Yu Darvish, not a top-10 starter in the AL but a good one who happens to represent one of MLB's biggest international markets, is relegated to the last-man ballot. (Including Darvish instead of Harrison would have made sense, as well, while keeping the team numbers in balance.) Never mind the obvious slight to dominant setup guys -- are the various constituencies involved in assembling these pitching staffs really that blinded by a useless fantasy stat?

National League

The NL lineup is far sillier than the AL one, primarily because of the voting push in San Francisco that put three Giants in the starting nine, none of whom belongs there. Buster Posey is a fine choice as an alternate behind Yadier Molina or Carlos Ruiz. Pablo Sandoval over David Wright, a longtime star having an MVP-caliber bounceback season now that he's healthy again, is atrocious. And I'm not remotely a fan of putting a BABIP-fluke hitter such as Melky Cabrera in the game on that basis, let alone having him start over an established star such as Andrew McCutchen; Cabrera's roster spot should have gone to Michael Bourn or, preferably, re-emergent Jason Heyward, who appeared in the All-Star Game as a rookie in 2010. Rafael Furcal is the other poor choice among NL starters, a shadow of the player he used to be, hitting .280 AVG/.346 OBP/.377 SLG with fringy defense, chosen over Jed Lowrie, hitting .261/.347/.486 with average defense or now-injured Troy Tulowitzki.

Over on the pitching staff, Johnny Cueto's a pretty serious oversight, a funny one because advanced metrics indicate that he hasn't been as good as his 2.26 ERA indicates but that he's still more than good enough to be on the roster. Joel Hanrahan represents more slavish devotion to Jerome Holtzman's devil spawn, the save statistic, and a terrible choice over teammate James McDonald, who is sixth in the NL with a 2.44 ERA. I don't think there's a good enough case to put Cliff Lee on the roster right now -- there are enough established starters having great seasons ahead of him -- but it would have been spectacular to see a starter with zero pitcher-wins in the All-Star Game as a statement on how stupid that statistic is.

And then we come to the biggest omission, Zack Greinke, the current NL leader in wins above replacement (per FanGraphs), and someone with a previous history of high-level performance. Even if we forgive the players for choosing Lance Lynn (their vote came before his past two outings) on his own merit, in what universe would you rather have Lynn than Greinke?

Huston Street might be the biggest joke of the year, though, selected for the All-Star Game after 20 innings of good but hardly great pitching in a paradise for fly-ball pitchers. Chase Headley would have been a much better choice for token Padre, but if you're pretending this game counts, why not ask for Andrew Cashner as a tactical weapon, a guy who could come in and miss a bat in a critical late-game situation?

Finally, the failure to put Bryce Harper on the NL roster is either a lack of marketing awareness on the part of the powers-that-be … or a craven attempt to juice interest in this "last man" voting nonsense by putting one of the dozen or so most recognizable names in MLB on the ballot. Harper has crossed over into popular culture -- I heard him name-checked on NPR's "Talk of the Nation" for his "That's a clown question, bro" quip -- and has produced enough that he would be a reasonable selection to the game, ranking in the top 20 among NL outfielders in FanGraphs' WAR despite missing about 20 games before his recall. Harper and Darvish should boost ratings and media coverage all by themselves, and omitting them is hardly in MLB's best interests on a night when the biggest names and brightest talents should all be on display.

[jbergey22]

Plenty of things to debate but Lance Lynn over Zack Grienke is just sad. Lance Lynn started the season on fire but really hasnt been that good lately and Grienke is leading the league in (everyones favorite stat ) WAR for pitchers.

And Dusty is a damn fool for suggesting Phillips got snubbed. His case would have made sense if he had just said Cueto.

The Giants must be making their fans punch out 25 all star ballots before getting tickets. Im not really understanding how they have 3 starters in the All Star game.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Subby

Finally, the failure to put Bryce Harper on the NL roster is either a lack of marketing awareness on the part of the powers-that-be … or a craven attempt to juice interest in this "last man" voting nonsense by putting one of the dozen or so most recognizable names in MLB on the ballot. Harper has crossed over into popular culture -- I heard him name-checked on NPR's "Talk of the Nation" for his "That's a clown question, bro" quip -- and has produced enough that he would be a reasonable selection to the game, ranking in the top 20 among NL outfielders in FanGraphs' WAR despite missing about 20 games before his recall. Harper and Darvish should boost ratings and media coverage all by themselves, and omitting them is hardly in MLB's best interests on a night when the biggest names and brightest talents should all be on display.

Yeah, I cant imagine a scenario where Yu doesnt get in and its seems very unlikely that Bryce wont get in as well. This is like a WWE staged ballot this year. Give 1 obvious pick with 4 options very unlikely to be a threat to what the WWE really wants.

[Suicane75]

I'm more saddened for a guy like Ruiz, well as sad as I can be for a pro athlete, who has been steady if unspectacular his whole career and has a season like he's having and still not get the nod. Personally I think it'd be a nice bit of recognition to have.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

The Giants must be making their fans punch out 25 all star ballots before getting tickets. Im not really understanding how they have 3 starters in the All Star game.

2nd in the NL in total attendance thus far. In the case of Melky over Braun, that might have actually had some impact, with an edge of 360k fans in seats.

One place it didn't matter should be with Posey over Ruiz, the Phillies are the team who've outdrawn the Giants ytd (by about 100k).

[Suicane75]

They probably nodded off before getting to their ballots.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

2nd in the NL in total attendance thus far. In the case of Melky over Braun, that might have actually had some impact, with an edge of 360k fans in seats.

One place it didn't matter should be with Posey over Ruiz, the Phillies are the team who've outdrawn the Giants ytd (by about 100k).

The one that really bothered me was Sandoval over D Wright. David Wright might be the early season MVP in the NL and he was outvoted by a player that has been hurt a good chunk of the season.

[lungs]

No arguments here for Melky Cabrera over Braun. Is Matt Kemp going to play? A pretty good argument could be made that Andrew McCutchen should be Kemp's replacement, not Braun.

Greinke is a tough omission, but again, I'd give Cueto the nod before Greinke. Greinke probably doesn't give a shit anyway.

[korme]

La Russa says he left Cueto off because he is scheduled to pitch Sunday. Horse shit. Penalize a guy and take away his AS spot because of which day his turn to pitch lies on?

[lungs]

Originally Posted by korme

La Russa says he left Cueto off because he is scheduled to pitch Sunday. Horse shit. Penalize a guy and take away his AS spot because of which day his turn to pitch lies on?

He said the same thing about Greinke.... only problem is Greinke pitches on Saturday.

[Chief Rum]

I hate that Sunday start shit. No, not the logistics of it--it makes sense that a pitcher who starts on Sunday (or even Saturday or Sunday) not participate in the All Star Game.

But to use it as criteria for choosing players? Bullshit. If he deserves to be there, you pick him and give him that All Star nod. Then you remove him based on the Sunday start and get a replacement.

[stevew]

James McDonald kind of got screwed as well. I guess he pitches on Saturday.

[Easy Mac]

Per the new CBA, you can't exclude a player who starts on Sunday.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Easy Mac

Per the new CBA, you can't exclude a player who starts on Sunday.

Tony LaRussa don't give a hoot.

[korme]

Jerry Hairston Jr. is hitting 3rd for the Dodgers tonight... ouch

[Butter]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Tony LaRussa don't give a hoot.

Like I said, still a dick. I did like how he tried to blame Dusty for it though. Almost made me feel sympathetic for the WORST MANAGER IN BASEBALL. But then it didn't.

Why Todd Frazier is not batting cleanup and starting every day is a mystery. He had like 26 RBI's last night.

[rowech]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

Like I said, still a dick. I did like how he tried to blame Dusty for it though. Almost made me feel sympathetic for the WORST MANAGER IN BASEBALL. But then it didn't.

Why Todd Frazier is not batting cleanup and starting every day is a mystery. He had like 26 RBI's last night.

Don't bank on that...

SAN FRANCISCO -- Reds third baseman Scott Rolen hasn't looked good often at the plate since returning from a five-week stint on the disabled list.

Manager Dusty Baker gave Rolen his customary break from the lineup Saturday with a day game following a night game. There is no thought right now of reducing Rolen's playing time to keep him and his problematic left shoulder fresher.

"Rarely less is more, especially when you're trying to get your stroke. He'll be back in the lineup [Sunday]," Baker said.

Rolen, 37, entered the day batting .212 (7-for-33) with one home run in 11 games since he returned on June 18. He is a season-worst 0-for-15 with eight strikeouts since Monday.

"We're hoping before he gets down about it -- which I don't feel he is but everybody is capable -- he gets some breaks here," Baker said.

Rolen, who is batting .184 overall, missed 34 games with a strained left shoulder, and Todd Frazier played well as a replacement. Frazier started Saturday against the Giants.

Baker still believes that Rolen will ignite and produce at the plate.

"Look at him and [Ryan] Ludwick both," Baker said. "You have to look at their careers as opposed to what they're doing now. I'm into the big picture. Sometime I'm into the short-term small picture, but short term usually isn't as consistent as long term. Sooner or later, water seeks its own level and they get back to where they're supposed to be or at least pretty close."

[Scoobz0202]

Dustu dusty dusty

[jbergey22]

Dusty apparently hasnt figured out that he is 37 years old and been on a decline since about 2006 with the biggest decline happening within the past 2 years.

[Suicane75]

Yeah, but you aren't taking into account what he did back in 1887 with the Colonels.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Ryan S

Updated the thread title, the old one was driving me crazy!

Sorry, sorry. Updated for real-sy now

SI

[cartman]

Who was that wearing Roy Oswalt's jersey for the Rangers tonight?

[stevew]

Who is Drew Sutton?

[Crapshoot]

I'm enjoying the Pirates story from afar. If the Giants don't win it all, I'm rooting for all my old Yinzer buddies.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by cartman

Who was that wearing Roy Oswalt's jersey for the Rangers tonight?

Quite embarrassing to say the least.

[Swaggs]

Awesome.

I called the pie in the face afterwards.

[Young Drachma]

Best of luck to you, D-Train.

One-time lefty phenom Dontrelle Willis calls it quits - MLB - SI.com

[Young Drachma]

Also, Toronto released Jamie Moyer. 3rd time this year he's been released. Sucky way to go out, if he's indeed done.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Dusty apparently hasnt figured out that he is 37 years old and been on a decline since about 2006 with the biggest decline happening within the past 2 years.

Veterans don't decline. They just get savvier.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

Also, Toronto released Jamie Moyer. 3rd time this year he's been released. Sucky way to go out, if he's indeed done.

I've become a big fan of Moyer since I moved here. He does a lot to help youth programs in the area. He donated items to be raffled off to help the Lakewood Baseball Club (for any that read my coaching dynasty) this year and I'm sure he's been doing it for years.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

Also, Toronto released Jamie Moyer. 3rd time this year he's been released. Sucky way to go out, if he's indeed done.

I have to think the Braves would at least work him out & think about a minor league deal for a few starts.

[Big Fo]

Brian McCann just hit a grand slam to straightaway center. It's his second in two nights, maybe it's a sign that he'll start hitting like normal in the second half of the season.

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I have to think the Braves would at least work him out & think about a minor league deal for a few starts.

I actually think he'd put up a 4.5 ERA in San Diego. Pitching in the AL is not going to work for him.

[JPhillips]

Dusty,

The line for leadoff hitters shouldn't look like this:

.201/.246/.316

Please stop giving your worst hitters the most ABs.

Thanks.

[Suicane75]

Don't worry, Juan Pierre is on his way.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Yeah, I cant imagine a scenario where Yu doesnt get in and its seems very unlikely that Bryce wont get in as well. This is like a WWE staged ballot this year. Give 1 obvious pick with 4 options very unlikely to be a threat to what the WWE really wants.

I have egg on my face.

All-Star Game MLB.com Final Vote Sponsored by Firestone Ends - MarketWatch

Yu was obvious and I would have thought the casual fans would have been all over the hotshot rookie. Congrats to Yu and Freese.

[Scoobz0202]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Dusty,

The line for leadoff hitters shouldn't look like this:

.201/.246/.316

Please stop giving your worst hitters the most ABs.

Thanks.

Yea, it really is frustrating. It's not even fair to the likes of Cozart and Stubbs. Were these players hitting where they belonged in the lineup that any sane manager would have them in then they wouldn't catch near the flack they do. We'd take the bad offensive stretches, or general badness, with the excellent defense. But instead they are hitting in spots that are completely not where they should be and instead they are constantly lambasted (Stubbs especially).

[jbergey22]

What is Stubbs big selling point? Upside?

He is a below average defender(according to defensive metrics), his on base is right around .300, and he cant make consistent contact so unless that changes he is going to be a 250 or lower hitter. Perhaps he will get better but the fact this is 3rd full year and his contact hasnt improved and his walk rate has gotten a tad worse isnt a very promising sign. His BABIP has actually been quite good in the years he was sitting around .250 so it seems he is a natural .230 or lower hitter right now.

Seems like a player that should be playing for a team out of contention and not a player starting for a division leader.

[DanGarion]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

What is Stubbs big selling point? Upside?

He is a below average defender(according to defensive metrics), his on base is right around .300, and he cant make consistent contact so unless that changes he is going to be a 250 or lower hitter. Perhaps he will get better but the fact this is 3rd full year and his contact hasnt improved and his walk rate has gotten a tad worse isnt a very promising sign.

Seems like a player that should be playing for a team out of contention and not a player starting for a division leader.

205 STRIKEOUTS! That is his selling point.

[Scoobz0202]

Upside. I dont place much stock in defensive metrics as I think he is not a below average defender. But if his offense was even average his speed could be utilized even more on the basepaths. But yea, we may be seeing the real and future Stubbs already.

But the current Reds offense doesnt have much going for it, which makes the flack Stubbs gets more frustrating for me. Outside of 2 or 3 players, nobody is performing where they should or you hope they would be. Bruce, Mesoraco, Heisey, Ludwick, Rolen, Cozart, Stubbs are all underachieving. Well, Ludwick might just suck. Then Valdez... so we have Votto, Frazier, and often times Phillips who are performing. I dont want to hear about STUBBS. Everybody is sucking right now minus a few. And it all makes it worse with Dustys unbelievable lineup construction.

[k0ruptr]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

On the plus side, Peavy is throwing a little harder this year and his walk rate is easily a career-best.

On the down side, he's benefiting from an unsustainable low BABIP of .206 and HR/FB% of 1.8%. When those rates regress, his overall numbers are going to look very similar to his last couple of years. And unfortunately, along with his walk rate being a career-low, so is his groundball rate.

So basically, Peavy is the same guy as he was the last couple of years, with a lower walk-rate countered by a lower groundball rate.

Originally Posted by k0ruptr

I'd wager a sig bet or something that his final ERA is closer to 3.5 then 4.5

His BABIP is rediculously low yes but his control is extremely tighter then the last cpl years. Also he's healthy. Saber metrics tell a story. But watching him so far this year has me leaning towards more Peavy of old then recent.

I wanted to revisit this at the halfway point of the season. His HR/FB% has leveled off to 7%, and while it may creep up a little I think its fairly sustainable. BABIP is at .254 which would be a career low and maybe unlikely. but its inline with top 10 BABIP pitchers of the last few years, so possibly sustainable as well.

The innings pitched scared me at first (107 Pit/GS) because of injuries and whatnot , but not so much with his much improved control and whatever robotics,magnets and bone chips that surgeon made back into an arm-seriously how many calls is this guy getting now? Also looking at 2005-2007 his Pit/GS were between 105-106. So as long as he stays fresh and healthy I don't see a problem there.

While a ton of credit is due to the new found Peavy , he is also benefiting from a defense that has the fewest errors in baseball including an outfield with great range and arms (Alex Rios playin the hell out of RF!) . AJ calling great games ,not to mention Peavy completely shutting down the running game. I'm still researching some stats, but at 17 GS in the season at only 31 years young - if it looks like Peavy, and sounds like Peavy it probably is new and improved robot arm Peavy