04-16-2020, 08:23 AM | #22801 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
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Quote:
So you counter all the evidence of the bruising economic fight with statements? |
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04-16-2020, 08:36 AM | #22802 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
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Quote:
I don't disagree, China has shown long-term strategy in investment/buying-off countries that need the $. Can't blame China, the US does it too. Until Trump, the US China policy has been "words" and not "deeds" because China has been the economic market. Trump's counter to China trying to redirect blame was childish with the "Chinese virus". It would have been so much better to just have called it the "Wuhan virus" because that is more sustainable and doubt MSM would have called that non-ADL racist. Nevertheless, it starts with acknowledging that we are in an economic/IP/technological war with China and then creating a strategy to counter it. Not saying Trump is up to the job but he has at least brought it to the forefront. I do struggle with Biden on this issue because I don't think he believes China is really, really a threat. Last edited by Edward64 : 04-16-2020 at 08:38 AM. |
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04-16-2020, 08:37 AM | #22803 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
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Quote:
You realize that this is exactly how Putin handles anything where Russia might be at fault, or it might be his responsibility. Exactly. Deflect and deny forever, accuse someone else. It used to be a joke around here. Now it's the accepted thing to do.
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04-16-2020, 08:47 AM | #22804 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
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Quote:
Do you believe China is to blame for this pandemic? Not necessarily as the creator of the virus but for negligence, lack of transparency etc.? If you do, why not lead an effort to blame China for it especially when they are trying to "deflect, deny, accuse someone else". |
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04-16-2020, 08:48 AM | #22805 |
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uffda
22 million jobs in four weeks. That's a staggering number in any circumstance. The ripple effect from this is going to be brutal. We're not even going to see that for another month or so. As things open up and nobody spends money. That's when the real pain is going to hit.
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04-16-2020, 08:49 AM | #22806 | |
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Quote:
I believe it was a global catastrophe. It could just as easily started there as anywhere in Asia. What exactly do you want China to do about it? Or what exactly do you want the US to "make" China do about it?
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04-16-2020, 08:50 AM | #22807 | ||
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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Quote:
What do you think success in this fight you've described looks like? Quote:
I don't. Look at the way the rest of the world has handled it. It should be obvious by the way it has spread around the world that A) Nobody was prepared and B) After the initial breakout, it was going to spread globally no matter what and there's nothing anybody could have done to prevent it. The damage could have been minimized more obviously, but there's significant blame to go around there to nearly every country in the world. . Last edited by Brian Swartz : 04-16-2020 at 08:55 AM. |
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04-16-2020, 08:52 AM | #22808 |
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04-16-2020, 08:54 AM | #22809 | |
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Quote:
It's all the same really. One fight, another fight, they're all still a fight with the same group.
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04-16-2020, 08:56 AM | #22810 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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It seems evident they are related, but the economic one.
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04-16-2020, 08:58 AM | #22811 | |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Winnipeg, MB
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Quote:
I agree with this. Good luck getting Canada to 'fall in line' on that myth after the Huawei CEO backstab a year ago and now the mask-grab fiasco. I'm sure most other countries have similar axes to grind. The US-first, isolationist MAGA philosophy comes at a cost.
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04-16-2020, 09:09 AM | #22812 | |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Quote:
I belong to a couple Facebook groups about Las Vegas and there have been a lot of posts about Vegas reopening and people basically wishfully thinking about it. May 1st is actually being thrown around. I'm like, guys, Vegas is so far from opening right now not only because social distancing, but because people don't have the discretionary income and wont for a long time. |
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04-16-2020, 09:10 AM | #22813 | |||
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
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Quote:
The question I posed was
Quote:
I don't want China to do anything about it and don't want the US to "make" China do anything about it. I want the US to leverage this catastrophe, coalesce countries that already have doubts about China, and reduce China's influence. I see this as an economic/IP/technological war with China. Last edited by Edward64 : 04-16-2020 at 09:10 AM. |
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04-16-2020, 09:12 AM | #22814 | |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Quote:
I listen to the BBC a decent amount and have family from the UK, South Africa, and a few other countries. It absolutely amazes me that anyone thinks the global POV of the US is at all positive outside a few dictatorships. Other countries are more likely to do the direct opposite of what we do, and they should. |
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04-16-2020, 09:14 AM | #22815 | |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Quote:
So take advantage of a global pandemic that will likely kill millions to get a leg up over them? What happend to catching more flies with honey? |
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04-16-2020, 09:15 AM | #22816 | ||
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
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Quote:
I'll take this to mean the economic/IP/technology war then. I'll respond more fully later on this. Quote:
Sure, I get after the initial breakout every country was found lacking. But during the initial event? No blame there for not being transparent enough or really raising the alarm? |
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04-16-2020, 09:20 AM | #22817 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
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Quote:
To be clear, I didn't use the "fall in line" quote. I used "fall behind someone leading the blame game". The former implies "obey", the latter implies "support". I agree the US-first comes at a cost. I've stated that Trump should do this to help his re-election but have sprinkled caveats that I don't know if he's up to the job or forward thinking enough. |
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04-16-2020, 09:22 AM | #22818 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
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Quote:
Yes, agree with this. However, the blame game is much easier for Trump to win (if he's smart in coalescing support) vs the economic/IP/technology battle. This is an opportunity handed to Trump on a silver platter. All he has to do is be smart about blaming China and creating the support. |
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04-16-2020, 09:30 AM | #22819 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
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Quote:
I think I read somewhere China's silk road initiative was about $1T overall government, private & public companies. I don't know if the US has that much honey to spread around. Yes, if Trump was smart, he should basically take advantage of a global pandemic to place blame where much (not all) belongs to further his political position and help his earlier cause of pushing back on China. Call it first stab for China grabbing the Spratleys from its neighbors. Last edited by Edward64 : 04-16-2020 at 09:31 AM. |
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04-16-2020, 09:32 AM | #22820 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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Quote:
I'm not saying no blame for those things, but that's not the same as being to blame for the pandemic itself, which is how the original question was worded. During the initial event even China didn't know what was going on. That's before Li Wenliang began to sound the alarm. As scientists have investigated we've seen the likely time period of the initial outbreak get pushed back and back to the point where best estimates I've seen are 2-3 months before that. By then, China being more transparent wouldn't have stopped anything, and they eventually took measures more extreme and draconian than what most countries have done. So yes I blame them for their clear distortion/suppression, etc., but at the same time even once more facts were known others did similar things. I.e. Trump calling it a hoax, saying it's well under control, saying cases would soon be down to zero, etc. We haven't a leg to stand on criticizing China/ the WHO on this stuff when we acted in a similar way. |
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04-16-2020, 09:34 AM | #22821 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
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Quote:
Let's not mix Trump vs US. They are different. Trump Ratings Remain Low Around the World, While Views of U.S. Stay Mostly Favorable | Pew Research Center View of the US |
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04-16-2020, 09:38 AM | #22822 | |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Jan 2004
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Quote:
He is not a leader in any remote, does not inspire; and can not create support. He is the great divider and he is best at feeding the haters of the world. I agree with others that think it is comical to think he can get anyone except North Korea to fall his lead. This is what the era of Trumpism has brought us globally. |
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04-16-2020, 09:43 AM | #22823 | |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Quote:
You are giving Americans way too much credit for their skills with math. They are largely innumerate, the math equivalent of illiterate. There is a built-in spin right here, which you can expect to hear today… The numbers this week were not as bad as the numbers last week… Things are looking up! That is absolutely absurd on its face, but you can guarantee that will be a talking point in red America by tonight on Fox news. |
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04-16-2020, 09:46 AM | #22824 | ||||
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
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Quote:
My original question is below.
Quote:
I believe Li Wenliang sounded alarm on Jan 1. Quote:
If China on Jan 1 held a press conference and said - "Guys, this is for real, no bullshit. We're going to do our best but we think it will inevitably spread to your country. Here's what we know and the treatments we have tried so far. And oh BTW, CDC we welcome you on the ground now", I'm pretty it may not have "stopped anything" but it sure would have helped. Last edited by Edward64 : 04-16-2020 at 09:47 AM. |
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04-16-2020, 09:46 AM | #22825 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Jul 2007
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So the goal should be not to do better/smarter from now on but to be better/smarter at blaming others, did i get that correctly ?
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04-16-2020, 09:47 AM | #22826 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Incidentally, there is no working model to predict what happens in our economy for the next six weeks, six months, whenever. This kind of shocked to employment over the course of a few weeks is just one of a kind. We might never know how much of what has fallen apart is connected to a pre-existing recession that was about to happen anyway, how much is completely due to the health crisis, and so forth. And, if you were in the business of predicting the economy, the stock market, or government revenues… All of which are pretty important, good luck. People are trying to describe the shape of the economic downturn and recovery… Most economists use letters like V, U, and L to describe the economy over an x axis of time... I recently heard somebody use the phrase Nike swoosh to describe what might be ahead for us, and I am going to pirate the shit out of that phrase.
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04-16-2020, 09:51 AM | #22827 | |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Quote:
Tough to disagree with that. I realized that on this issue everybody has retreated to their appropriately colored corners, and because the POTUS is playing the blame Chyna card, team blue has decided that’s totally inappropriate. But sure, China could and should have done more, and in ways less bald faced than this strawman. Their governmental culture of secrecy and shame played no small part in these problems, it appears. I’m not completely convinced that a more “free” country would have necessarily done better, but their accountability structure didn’t seem to lend it self to a proper, open, and effective quick response. |
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04-16-2020, 09:53 AM | #22828 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
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Quote:
Yeah, don't dispute it, he's not very good at coalescing global support. |
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04-16-2020, 09:55 AM | #22829 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
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Quote:
Uh no. My response to you is, at most, all Germany will do is be verbally critical of China. All words, no action. Just like "fall in line" is not the same as "fall behind someone leading the blame game" Last edited by Edward64 : 04-16-2020 at 09:56 AM. |
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04-16-2020, 09:56 AM | #22830 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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Quote:
How would that have helped, beyond being the right thing to do? I agree they should have done it, but we weren't doing that months later when it had spread to Korea, and Italy, and … Spain didn't act decisively. The UK didn't. Sweden didn't. The USA didn't. All when we had a lot more evidence than China could have possibly given us at the start of January. Such warnings only do any practical good when they are heeded. Almost everyone waited too long to act anyway. Last edited by Brian Swartz : 04-16-2020 at 09:57 AM. |
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04-16-2020, 09:57 AM | #22831 | |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Relocated from the non-political COVID thread, since my snark level is surely itself a violation of the separation wall...
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Be careful, as factual as the statement is, prepare for this entire argument to become 100% political. The debate about medical professionals assigning a cause of death, what to do with a count of people simply dying at home without a diagnosis or test… All that is going to be hashed out on the political airwaves, not by medical experts. Soon, all that will have to go to the politics thread, not the medical thread because… We don’t make medical decisions based on medicine, we do so based on electoral strategy. |
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04-16-2020, 10:02 AM | #22832 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
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Quote:
Honestly, I don't see how it could not have helped. I'm not saying the world would have squared away from this speech but there would certainly have been more awareness ... especially if the CDC was brought in early. |
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04-16-2020, 10:26 AM | #22833 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Newburgh, NY
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Trump on March 6: I like the numbers where they are.
China being more transparent would have been a good thing, but Trump was denying the problem well after everyone should have known a pandemic was likely. Any argument saying things could have been different has to somehow change Trump's behavior, and I don't see any reason to assume that could have happened.
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04-16-2020, 10:30 AM | #22834 | |
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Quote:
This is exactly my same point of view. Thank you for articulating it so well for me.
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04-16-2020, 10:42 AM | #22835 | ||
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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Quote:
The CDC got there well ahead of us anyway. This argument would have weight if we took action before CDC recommendations and warnings came out, indicating they needed more advance info. On February 25, they warned that community spread was going to happen soon in the US and that 'Disruptions to everyday life might be severe." What did we do? Not much of anything. It wasn't just Trump. The first school closings would not happen for more than two weeks. We still haven't taken steps that should have been taken at that point to ramp up testing etc. more quickly, establish temporary hospital locations, and so on. Beyond that, experts had been warning of this type of pandemic (or one much, much worse) being inevitable for at least two decades. Again, we did nothing. That's WE. All of us share a significant part of the blame. Any lack of awareness was simple willful blindness, and that includes me personally. And as I've mentioned before, as bad as this is we've gotten relatively lucky. There's no reason this one couldn't have been as contagious as measles and double the lethality of SARS. That is a scenario that very possibly will happen at some point, barring a major change on how we interact with the natural world, and pandemics are only aspect of how the way we live as a species is a ticking time bomb. Quote:
You're welcome. Last edited by Brian Swartz : 04-16-2020 at 10:42 AM. |
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04-16-2020, 10:52 AM | #22836 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
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Quote:
I think your argument is yeah China is to be blamed but US shares blame too. My argument is yeah China is to be blamed for the initial outbreak and lack of transparency and US shares none/much less of that blame until maybe Feb 2 when NYT and WP said it was going to be a pandemic. What would have happened if CDC was involved Jan 1, the hypothetical China speech given, and CDC reports start trickling back confirming this was for real in first half of Jan? What would have happened if China did not (arguably, not confirmed) play WHO into not declaring it as a pandemic until Mar 11? So sure, blame Trump now after approx Feb 2 but let's not believe China does not own the majority of the blame in the early stages. And because of their lack of transparency, it has made it worse for rest of world. |
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04-16-2020, 10:55 AM | #22837 | |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Quote:
If only there was some branch of the CDC designed to track global pandemics and try to stop them before they get out of control. Oh wait, there was, Trump disbanded them.... |
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04-16-2020, 10:58 AM | #22838 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
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Quote:
NYT and WP was calling it a pandemic on Feb 2. Not sure if Feb 25 is when the CDC "got there well ahead of us anyway" but NYT and WP beat them to the punch. |
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04-16-2020, 11:01 AM | #22839 | ||
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
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Quote:
Oh com'on. See below Feb 7 article. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/07/h...rus-china.html Quote:
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04-16-2020, 11:04 AM | #22840 | |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Nov 2003
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What could be the harm, he asked?
Well... Quote:
This continues a trend of promoting and approving drugs, tests, etc. I worry about many of the Tests being approved/fast-tracked that will provide a false sense of security to those taking it only to find out the results are unreliable. |
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04-16-2020, 11:05 AM | #22841 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Newburgh, NY
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Quote:
Your argument seems to be that if China had been more forthcoming sooner, the U.S. government would have behaved differently. My argument is that the Chinese government's behavior, regardless of what it was, would have had very little, if any, impact on how Trump and the WH behaved. We know HHS Sec. Azar was alerting them in Jan and Feb and was neutered because of it. We know Navarro wrote his letter in Jan. There were intelligence briefings possibly as far back as November. There's nothing that China could have done to make Trump a little less Trumpy.
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04-16-2020, 11:06 AM | #22842 | |
Favored Bitch #1
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Quote:
and what does that have to do with a CDC team that could have been tracking cases around the globe and in the US, isolating cases, and tracing them back to the origin? would have made a huge difference in the spread here in the US. |
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04-16-2020, 11:10 AM | #22843 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2009
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oh boy fake protesters...what is this? 2000?
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04-16-2020, 11:12 AM | #22844 |
Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Greensboro, NC
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China's response was inexcusable and cost innumerable lives.
Trump's response was inexcusable and cost innumerable lives. China would have responded horribly without Trump. Trump would have responded horribly without China. All of this can be true at the same time.
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04-16-2020, 11:16 AM | #22845 | |
Head Coach
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Quote:
We agree that Trump would have continued to be Trump in the Jan timeframe even if CDC & WHO were more engaged and China was more transparent. We disagree on when he would have gotten more serious. I say on the Mar 11 or 12 "I can't read speech" when Trump got serious. Good chance he would have gotten to that speech earlier with more pressure from scientistis, press, other countries etc. Let's not forget about the rest of the world. Would the other countries have benefited if CDC, WHO & China transparency in early Jan? |
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04-16-2020, 11:17 AM | #22846 | |
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Quote:
Er ... because the CDC and WHO team would have been on the ground and given us unfiltered accounts of what's happening in the early stages? |
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04-16-2020, 11:18 AM | #22847 | |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Quote:
Sometimes I wonder if you are watching the same presidency as the rest of us. What makes you think he would have heeded their Advice any sooner? What has he ever done to make you think he would have reacted any differently? |
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04-16-2020, 11:22 AM | #22848 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
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Quote:
Here's how I see it 1) He "heeded" advice on Mar 11 or 12 2) He did this based on Fauci, Birx, models etc. 3) If China welcomed the non-Chinese experts (and media), these experts would have gotten the information, models earlier to Trump 4) Wouldn't even 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 days earlier have helped? Let me reiterate - Trump and US government slow response is not blameless. I am just stating that China has the majority of the blame in the initial stages. Last edited by Edward64 : 04-16-2020 at 11:24 AM. |
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04-16-2020, 11:34 AM | #22849 | |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
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Quote:
and what makes you think Trump wouldn't have looked at those models and the current numbers in the States and done exactly what he ended up doing. Do you not realize the man in incapable of thinking more than 1 step ahead? |
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04-16-2020, 11:39 AM | #22850 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
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Quote:
How about a question of my own ... and what makes you think China is blameless or doesn't have majority of the blame in the initial stages? Last edited by Edward64 : 04-16-2020 at 11:39 AM. |
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