POTUS 2024 - Harris vs Trump - General Election Discussion

[Lathum]

OK.

But just know I am better than you

[Lathum]

That was sarcasm BTW

[JPhillips]

Yikes. JD is 16 points underwater in favorability in the midwest.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

The amusing part to me:

- People make false accusations about Harris: disgusting, how dare they (this is the correct response)
- People make false accusations about Vance: lol that's hilarious.

Honestly, the Vance couch stuff is hilarious.

You are right that it is wrong to make false accusations about someone, especially of a sexual nature.

But I personally don't pretend that I'm a good person.

[JPhillips]

This guy is good.

Walz: "They scream 'socialism' -- we just build roads, and we build schools, and we build prosperity into this." pic.twitter.com/22m9YW4LU8

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) July 26, 2024

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Mostly agree. It's just a list of things conservatives have talked about for decades. And the Heritage Foundation has lost most of its influence in Washington so it's funny to see them being trotted out as a boogeyman.

With that said, it's incredibly fucking stupid to put all your unpopular ideas like that down on a document that can be shared. Can't blame the Democrats for taking advantage of that massive blunder.

They're still a bit disconcerting though. And as has been said, it's not like they haven't had any wins.

Trump’s Project 2025 leader Kevin Roberts: “We are winning… In ways that the other side doesn't yet know… We’re not gonna tell you everything that's coming… [Get] ready to fight” pic.twitter.com/czUczGMM3M

— Kamala HQ (@KamalaHQ) July 25, 2024

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

This guy is good.

Walz: "They scream 'socialism' -- we just build roads, and we build schools, and we build prosperity into this." pic.twitter.com/22m9YW4LU8

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) July 26, 2024

Yeah, he's really good. Democrats have a stable of savvy Governors that were being blocked out by the old guard. I think people will be surprised if they get more publicity.

I’m telling you: these guys are weird. pic.twitter.com/fvNRNf7T7T

— Tim Walz (@Tim_Walz) July 24, 2024

[RainMaker]

lol I think she has a shot

New MICHIGAN Detroit News/WDIV poll

�� Kamala Harris 42%
�� Donald Trump 41%
�� RFK Jr. 10%

Previous Biden vs Trump poll: TRUMP +8 in January

— umichvoter ��️‍������ (@umichvoter) July 26, 2024

[Ghost Econ]

The Rand Corporation, in conjunction with the saucer people, under the supervision of the reverse vampires are forcing our parents to go to bed early in a fiendish plot to eliminate the meal of dinner.

BREAKING: In a stunning leak, JD Vance is found to be calling for a federal response to stop women from traveling from red states to blue states to receive reproductive healthcare. Retweet so all Americans hear this devastating leak. pic.twitter.com/t9Q4n9dQJL

— Kamala’s Wins (@harris_wins) July 26, 2024

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

lol I think she has a shot

Right now, it's probably fairly close to a coin flip, which is remarkable considering where this thing stood after that disastrous Biden debate performance.

These state polls are what to keep an eye on, especially Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. The national polls aren't meaningless, but keep in mind that she needs to be up by about 4 points or more in the popular vote to translate into an electoral college lead.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Doing the debate so early with Biden and picking Vance as VP will go down as two of the biggest blunders in American political history.

Not if Trump wins.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

These state polls are what to keep an eye on, especially Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. The national polls aren't meaningless, but keep in mind that she needs to be up by about 4 points or more in the popular vote to translate into an electoral college lead.

Going to quote this for importance. I've seen a lot about how engagement for Democrats is up among minorities and young people, and that's great. But this isn't about running up the vote in New York, California, and Illinois. She needs to win some group of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Arizona.

Since 1992, the Democratic candidate has won the popular vote in every GE except 2004. It's not about how many votes you get, it's where you get those votes.

[albionmoonlight]

Predict it has it at 56/47 Trump right now, which feels about right.

Pretty much a coin flip with a slight Trump edge.

We don't know how many quiet old white Biden voters there are in the Midwest who aren't going to blindly jump on the Harris bandwagon.

[cartman]

The Obamas have officially endorsed Kamala.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Going to quote this for importance. I've seen a lot about how engagement for Democrats is up among minorities and young people, and that's great. But this isn't about running up the vote in New York, California, and Illinois. She needs to win some group of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Arizona.

Since 1992, the Democratic candidate has won the popular vote in every GE except 2004. It's not about how many votes you get, it's where you get those votes.

Positive news in Michigan:

Harris, Trump tied in Michigan survey

I can't recall where I read it, but someone posted that Trump was +8 in the last poll. Not sure if that's accurate or not, though.

[flere-imsaho]

It's not particularly meaningful unless it's the last poll by the same pollster.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by cartman

The Obamas have officially endorsed Kamala.

That might be the final nail in Marianne Williamson's coffin.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Not if Trump wins.

Of course, but this race went from a Trump cakewalk to a coin flip in about a week. If Trump holds off on the debate till after the convention, Dems are stuck with Biden.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

Right now, it's probably fairly close to a coin flip, which is remarkable considering where this thing stood after that disastrous Biden debate performance.

These state polls are what to keep an eye on, especially Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. The national polls aren't meaningless, but keep in mind that she needs to be up by about 4 points or more in the popular vote to translate into an electoral college lead.

I think a lot of the statistical folks who pour over data have said that's no longer the case. That there is actually a decent chance that Trump wins the popular vote but loses the electoral college.

Maybe that changes with Kamala but Biden's strategy was to alienate the base to hopefully snag enough white men in the Rust Belt to win. His support in solid blue states was down from your typical Democratic candidate.

There was also a Georgia poll that had Trump up 1 only, but it showed Kamala with over 30% of the white vote. If a Democrat gets over 30% in Georgia, I've seen all the stat folks say she'll win the state barring a huge dropoff in black voters.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

There was also a Georgia poll that had Trump up 1 only, but it showed Kamala with over 30% of the white vote. If a Democrat gets over 30% in Georgia, I've seen all the stat folks say she'll win the state barring a huge dropoff in black voters.

I saw something once that if a Dem could ever get 25% of the White vote in Mississippi, they would win. Crazy stat.

[Atocep]

The voting demographics have shifted somewhat substantially over the past 4 years. Baby Boomers are passing away and the GOP has done nothing to appeal to young voters replacing them that aren't fueled by racism.

It's anyone's guess until we see the results but I don't think the GOP has the same advantages they previously had. Polling right now is also more likely to overstate GOP support rather than Dems because some assumptions are being made by pollsters trying to figure out Trump's support and making some guesses at what the electoral demographics will look like.

What should worry Trump, now that Biden isn't on the ticket, is nearly every state poll in the primaries overshot his support prior to the primary.

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by Atocep

It's anyone's guess until we see the results but I don't think the GOP has the same advantages they previously had. Polling right now is also more likely to overstate GOP support rather than Dems because some assumptions are being made by pollsters trying to figure out Trump's support and making some guesses at what the electoral demographics will look like.

That's how I feel as well. I've been pretty vocal about how I don't trust the newly 'adjusted' polling methods for the Presidential race, but I DO trust the movement of those polls. Like I don't trust the baseline they're starting from, but if that number shifts 10 points in one direction that significant movement is a legit indicator, regardless of the accuracy of the starting point.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I think a lot of the statistical folks who pour over data have said that's no longer the case. That there is actually a decent chance that Trump wins the popular vote but loses the electoral college.

I'd like to see this, because I doubt this very much. Given the way the electoral college is structured, I'm not sure it is possible for a GOP candidate to win the popular vote but lose the EC.

[Danny]

If they get rising support in big blue states. Theres definitely still a trump segment here in California.

[thesloppy]

"JD Vance searched for interspecies dolphin sex, and
then admitted it on Twitter"


https://www.rawstory.com/jd-vance-dolphin-search-history/

[Ksyrup]

I was half-expecting to see a picture of Jim McElwain and a shark.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Of course, but this race went from a Trump cakewalk to a coin flip in about a week. If Trump holds off on the debate till after the convention, Dems are stuck with Biden.

If Trump doesn't have an assassination attempt, the Dems are probably stuck with Biden. The bad polls are what hurt Biden and they didn't really get ugly until Mid July. In April, Trump had a 2-point lead. In early July, the aggregate was around +2.3, it wasn't until after July 13 that the damn broke to +3.5.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Danny

If they get rising support in big blue states. Theres definitely still a trump segment here in California.

But the same demographic that would "rise" in CA (or IL, or NY, etc...) is also going to be present in swing states. Every time someone digs deep into this they say something like (this is a totally made up example) "young latino men will come out in force for Trump in CA even though it won't make a difference" but then young latino men will also come out in force in Arizona where it will.

I'd love to see a Trump-supporting demographic that a) we expect to expand in voting participation this election and b) is mainly confined to solid blue states.

[Arles]

I'll be interested in where everything is in September. I think June to early July was the best possible set of circumstances for Trump (Hunter trial, bad Biden debate, failed assassination) and late July has been the best set of circumstances for Harris (great fundraising, everyone falling in line, even Beyonce doing an ad for her!).

I don't think Trump was going to keep his lead from early July no matter what so I will be interested to see how the ads and machines work in August for both parties. I do think this will be a close election, there's just so much noise on both sides with this much time left.

I think one big advantage for Harris is she will only be campaigning for a little over three months before people vote. There hasn't been enough time for the right to chip away at her and do what they did to Hillary (massive 18 month onslaught). If the Dems can properly frame Harris quickly as a good alternative to the two old guys, I think she could win. They need to be aggressive though. The flip side is if they just rely on positive media coverage and let the Trump goons flood TVs with attack ads on her (a la Hillary), the opposite could happen. This is like a court trial where the republicans are trying to sew "reasonable doubt" in white voters on Harris and her team needs to be ready to fight this. And, yes, I know my analogy is reversed to real life where Trump is the felon and Harris is the prosecutor

[albionmoonlight]

That makes sense, Arles.

If you think about it, the GOP had been chipping away at Hillary since 1992.

[GrantDawg]

lol...

I just want to personally thank @JDVance for knocking me out of the position of the worst Donald Trump hire. I didn’t think it would happen but here we are and I am grateful. ��

— Anthony Scaramucci (@Scaramucci) July 26, 2024

[GrantDawg]

FBI report says what hit Trump in the ear was a bullet, whether whole or fragmented.

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[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Arles

I'll be interested in where everything is in September. I think June to early July was the best possible set of circumstances for Trump (Hunter trial, bad Biden debate, failed assassination) and late July has been the best set of circumstances for Harris (great fundraising, everyone falling in line, even Beyonce doing an ad for her!).

I don't think Trump was going to keep his lead from early July no matter what so I will be interested to see how the ads and machines work in August for both parties. I do think this will be a close election, there's just so much noise on both sides with this much time left.

I think one big advantage for Harris is she will only be campaigning for a little over three months before people vote. There hasn't been enough time for the right to chip away at her and do what they did to Hillary (massive 18 month onslaught). If the Dems can properly frame Harris quickly as a good alternative to the two old guys, I think she could win. They need to be aggressive though. The flip side is if they just rely on positive media coverage and let the Trump goons flood TVs with attack ads on her (a la Hillary), the opposite could happen. This is like a court trial where the republicans are trying to sew "reasonable doubt" in white voters on Harris and her team needs to be ready to fight this. And, yes, I know my analogy is reversed to real life where Trump is the felon and Harris is the prosecutor

Hillary had like 20+ years of being a repulsive human being. She was wrong on almost every single issue. It wasn't some Trump attacks that did her in, it was that she was a bad candidate that people didn't like.

The difference in now and 2016 is that Trump is more unpopular than he was before. His mere presence riles up voters. And he can no longer run on the "outsider" platform that worked in 2016.

Maybe I'm overly optimistic on Harris' chance, but I feel like she has a lot in her favor. Republicans and Trump are inherently unpopular. Their ideas are weird and people don't like them (his candidates lost every swing state in 2022). Harris doesn't need to be a great candidate, just someone who can speak on how weird Trump, make abortion a central issue, and act like a normal human being.

[GrantDawg]

From what I have seen, she has definitely energized people. My timeline is full of people who had said they would never vote for Biden that are now all in on Kamala.

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[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Arles

If Trump doesn't have an assassination attempt, the Dems are probably stuck with Biden. The bad polls are what hurt Biden and they didn't really get ugly until Mid July. In April, Trump had a 2-point lead. In early July, the aggregate was around +2.3, it wasn't until after July 13 that the damn broke to +3.5.

Biden was getting clobbered all the way back to 2023 if you look at the swing states. He shit on his base hard to defend Israel and it cost him dearly. The debate was the last straw as it solidified every negative point against him.

It's also coming out that his campaign didn't know what the fuck they were doing. They didn't run internal polling for 2 months. They had no ads running on social media. And his advisors kept telling him to talk up his foreign policy which was disastrous instead of focusing on abortion. Just a clusterfuck and I think we'll get some eye-opening books some day about his administration.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

From what I have seen, she has definitely energized people. My timeline is full of people who had said they would never vote for Biden that are now all in on Kamala.

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For sure. I still would have voted Biden 100% against Trump but I didnt really feel good about supporting his run for a second term.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

But the same demographic that would "rise" in CA (or IL, or NY, etc...) is also going to be present in swing states. Every time someone digs deep into this they say something like (this is a totally made up example) "young latino men will come out in force for Trump in CA even though it won't make a difference" but then young latino men will also come out in force in Arizona where it will.

I'd love to see a Trump-supporting demographic that a) we expect to expand in voting participation this election and b) is mainly confined to solid blue states.

Here's a pretty good breakdown of the advantage Republicans had shrinking. There are others who have talked about it (Silver, ettingermentum) too.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/11/u...rump-2024.html

What it boils down to is Republicans are making gains with minorities. But minorities make up a higher percentage in states that are not competitive. For instance, the 5 states with the highest population of Hispanic voters are California, Texas, Florida, Illinois, and New York. So if Republicans pick up a couple points in those states, it doesn't change the result, but it's millions of votes difference.

In the same vain, Democrats have been making gains with white voters. It's why Biden was able to carry Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin that have some of the highest percentage of white voters in the country. Gaining a couple percentage points helps in the electoral college, but not so much in the popular vote since those states are smaller.

This was a trend in 2022. Whether this changes with Kamala on the ticket is another story. But Biden's best path to winning was sneaking out wins in PA, WI, and MI which would have still not gotten him enough to win the popular vote considering how poorly he was doing even in deep blue states.

[GrantDawg]

These are interesting numbers....
https://x.com/yashar/status/18170109...ifKfkl4vw&s=19

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[JPhillips]

I wonder if Trump's numbers are still be bolstered by people who didn't vote in 2022 or 2020.

[JPhillips]

dola

I mean Trump is the one saying stuff like this:

Trump: You have to get out and vote. You won’t have to do it anymore. Four years, it will be fixed, it will be fine. You won’t have to vote anymore.. In four years, you won’t have to vote again.

[thesloppy]

Not a single Black voter in Michigan poll says they'll back Trump - Raw Story

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

These are interesting numbers....
x.com

Shapiro helps in Pennsylvania but I think might hurt elsewhere. I'm sure they have run the numbers though to decide if he's worth the risk.

[GrantDawg]

Andy Beshear is headlining a campaign rally in Atlanta this weekend. There are lots of big hitter politicians putting a full court press on to try to get the VP pick.

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[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Here's a pretty good breakdown of the advantage Republicans had shrinking. There are others who have talked about it (Silver, ettingermentum) too.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/11/u...rump-2024.html

That's fine, and I was aware of that, but I see no evidence that Trump can/will win the popular vote but not win the electoral college, which was your original claim/suggestion.

And this is important because regardless of the result people really need to understand how badly the EC disadvantages democratic POTUS candidates.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

That's fine, and I was aware of that, but I see no evidence that Trump can/will win the popular vote but not win the electoral college, which was your original claim/suggestion.

And this is important because regardless of the result people really need to understand how badly the EC disadvantages democratic POTUS candidates.

And people really need to understand the great compromise the smaller states agreed to in order for the Union to be formed. It will always be advantageous to the smaller states because without some ability to feel represented, they would have remained simply colonies to another power.

If you ever forced a vote based on sheer population we would no longer be a Republic and would force all states to re-evaluate their entry into this Union.

The popular vote and the EC have been at odds perhaps 5 times? 6 times? So far, that’s one a helluva great result for the original compromise.

[flere-imsaho]

In 1770, the population of the smallest state, Delaware, was 8% that of the largest state, Virginia. In 2020, the population of the smallest state, Wyoming, was 1.5% that of the largest state, California.

The EC devalues the votes of millions of Americans, as done the Senate. If you truly think there's value in preserving the sovereignity of small, rural, states, then let's compromise after a quarter of a millenium and get rid of one of them.

[RainMaker]

It and the Senate were also made to protect slavery. That was what they were concerned about.

[cuervo72]

And why should that matter anymore for the presidency? Especially now? Have we asked what some of the "smaller" states think? For that matter, define "smaller"? Why is Montana a "small" state? What compromise was their entry part of, in 1889?

[cuervo72]

Or looking at it from another angle, why should you have more say in matters if you decide to move away from everyone else??

[cuervo72]

I mean, I'm sure because home state is very important electors in Delaware right now are all "YO WHAT THE SHIT, CALIFORNIA! THANKS FOR THE FRIGGIN' SCREW JOB!!"