The Stock Market thread

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Arles

The fed is always late (should have started raising in 2021, esp since they dropped it over 1.5% in 2020 due to covid). They were late to raise rates (and then over-corrected) and now are late to lower them. Inflation has gone from 3.5% in march to 3.0% in June (and probably lower in July when the numbers come out next week). It's pretty clear the supply chain issues in 21 and 22 caused a massive spike that was temporary. Here's our inflation rates:
2019: 2.3%
2020: 1.4%
2021: 7%
2022: 6.5%
2023: 3.4%
2024: 3.0%

Covid screwed up 2020-2022 and this is just a lingering hangover of a bunch of people raising prices due to commodities and the price of goods increase due mostly to the supply chain challenges after covid. There's no reason to keep rates at 5.3% at this point. Natural progression should get us back into the 2s by year's end. It would be funny if we have a rate in the 2.5% range next year as the difference from 2019 and 2025 would be 0.2% after all the hemming and hawing about how "inflation is here to stay now".

Or maybe this is what they intended. Powell is a Republican. If Trump wins, there will be rate cuts almost immediately.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Or maybe this is what they intended. Powell is a Republican. If Trump wins, there will be rate cuts almost immediately.

I have had that thought many times myself.

[RainMaker]

I mean the money spigot magically got turned on for Trump when he needed it and then off when Biden took office. Almost an immediate shift from Quantitative Easing to Quantitative Tightening by the Fed too.

[JPhillips]

I guess the depression is over now.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

they're not pissed that eggs went up 50c this year

Trust me when I say "they're pissed about that also"

And you can't really blame them honestly. They keep being told "well, supply chain issues blah blah blah" ... and their lying eyes don't see a shortage of eggs in the store so that translates into roughly "then why the fuck do they keep going up?"

*right, wrong, indifferent, I'm just sayin that's part of the reaction

** and let's keep in mind here that I'm the guy who keeps wondering aloud that "if the economy is soooooo terrible then why are the roads busy 20 hours a day with people going from one spending opportunity to the next, stores are busy as hell, the more expensive a place is the more likely it is to be busy, AND hardly anybody seems to actually work" ... in other words, the above is NOT me trying to spin some 'how awful the economy is' tale for political reasons

[Ksyrup]

I haven't heard the supply chain argument in at least 2 years.

[thesloppy]

The egg supply shortage and subsequent prices are the result of bird flu fwiw.


Having said that, I've had similar thoughts when I see all my friends with houses and six-figure jobs getting passionate about the collapse of the economy. Practically everyone I know is doing well and only getting better. On the other hand, it's pretty obvious that we're also closer to the edge of the cliff than ever before and it only takes a medical bill to strip you down to bankruptcy in a matter of days.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

The egg supply shortage and subsequent prices are the result of bird flu fwiw.


Having said that, I've had similar thoughts when I see all my friends with houses and six-figure jobs getting passionate about the collapse of the economy. Practically everyone I know is doing well and only getting better. On the other hand, it's pretty obvious that we're also closer to the edge of the cliff than ever before and it only takes a medical bill to strip you down to bankruptcy in a matter of days.

Just stop paying anything but co-pays. They can only payroll deduct so much. I stopped paying 4 years ago when my company I work for sold and the first thing the new company did was make insurance slightly more expensive and infinitely more useless. Basically made it completely useless tbh. We were pregnant at the time and stuck with the new insurance as we didn’t feel like we had any choice. What were we going to do? Change jobs? Wasn’t enough time at that point to get 90 days in. Child 1 and 2 we were billed less than 2k each out of pocket and had each paid off before birth. Child 3 we were billed 39k. I was done at that point.

[thesloppy]

Most hospitals have some sort of policy for bad debt, but it's a risky game to play. Some will write it off completely (as long as your finances look bad enough) and you'll effectively get treated for free. Some will sell your debt to a collection agency that will hound you daily.

[Edward64]

Moar, give me moar

Still about -5% from high but still a great day

[Edward64]

Very nice day! Thank you Mercury.

Still not back to the high from 1-2 months ago but good trend. The big question now is will Jerome drop rates in Sep (yes), by how much (.25 basis), and how many more times this year (+1).

Oh, and is rising inflation beat (yes)

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

Most hospitals have some sort of policy for bad debt, but it's a risky game to play. Some will write it off completely (as long as your finances look bad enough) and you'll effectively get treated for free. Some will sell your debt to a collection agency that will hound you daily.

I just saw this, and I'm well aware of how it works. Finances don't look bad so none of the hospitals will negotiate at all but all of the debt collection places will.

That 40k hospital debt, the hospital would only allow that to paid off in 12 equal payments for instance. We didn't qualify for any assistance and that hospital's policy didn't allow for payment plans in excess of 12 months. So that went to collections and we negotiated it down to 12 payments of $300 and then it got written off. It's not great, but it's the reality for many under our current healthcare system.

[Edward64]

Solid Monday. 8th green day in a row for the S&P. I’m down -2.5% from the high, nice recovery so far.

Should be a good setup for rest of week for Jerome in Jackson Hole. Jerome, please don’t hint no and spoil the rebound party.

[Edward64]

Woohoo. Let the good times roll ... (or not)

“The time has come for policy to adjust,” the central bank leader said in his much-awaited keynote address at the Fed’s annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. “The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”

[Lathum]

Whoa!

Great day so far and all my losses have been recovered.

I'm sure Trump will claim it is because RFK is joining his campaign.

[Lathum]

Record highs today. I am sure Trump will claim it is because Harris is going to give such a poor interview that by this time tomorrow we will be the favorite again.

[cuervo72]

For the first time last week I decided to actually mentally register what is in my 401k/403b accounts. Just looking at one of them I played the little "let's multiply this number by 1.1, x number of times" and thought "huh, that's...not an insignificant sum" (x was somewhere in the 10-12 range). Now, 10%/year is probably fairly optimistic, but I guess it's not that far off the market as a whole on average if you look at what, the past 50 years?

Adding the other three to them -- not to mention whatever my wife has* -- and I contemplated actually being able to retire. Yes, I still have a number of responsibilities which need to be taken care of in the meantime (so it's not going to be any time before that "x" above), but retirement...no longer a "nah, never happen" proposition.


* She, I believe, has also gotten some "there will be something for you" comments from her parents, but I don't ever want to bank on something like that.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

For the first time last week I decided to actually mentally register what is in my 401k/403b accounts. Just looking at one of them I played the little "let's multiply this number by 1.1, x number of times" and thought "huh, that's...not an insignificant sum" (x was somewhere in the 10-12 range). Now, 10%/year is probably fairly optimistic, but I guess it's not that far off the market as a whole on average if you look at what, the past 50 years?

I don't think the real rate of return after inflation is 10% though.

I'm not a financial analyst or advisor but when I project my future assets I assume around a 5% rate of return so more conservative but still around a 8% return pre inflation.

When you remove inflation from your rate of return than the numbers you see are in today's dollars which is a lot easier to digest.

[cuervo72]

/pitches retirement snow globe out the window

[Edward64]

More invested in Tech than Dow so past several days have hurt. As Nvidia goes, so goes the Nasdaq. Nvidia beat expectations on revenue and profit, they just didn’t beat it enough. As someone in r/wsb said …

The (real) expectation is expecting the expectation to be better than the expected expectation…

[Ksyrup]

I would love to retire in 10-12 years (63-65), and maybe I'll be able to by that point, but the way my job is going, I could also see a scenario in which 10 years from now, I could be overseeing people below me doing most of the day-to-day work while I draw a fairly nice salary without having to kill myself. If that opportunity presents itself, I may look at 70+ as a realistic option even if i see a financial pathway to retirement several years before I hit 70. If I can continue to take 2-3 nice vacations a year, why not?

That's kinda what's going on at our parent company while we build the subsidiary business, and in a decade I could see myself either transitioning up to GC of the parent company or our business doing well enough that we can afford an actual legal staff that I oversee. Of course, I could also be looking for a job at 60 so...

[thesloppy]

I've given up on retirement. I'm going to be working as a Wal-Mart greeter until the day I die.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Racer

I don't think the real rate of return after inflation is 10% though.

With inflation and dividends, it's about 6.5% annually since the inception of the S&P 500 (1957): 403 Forbidden

[Edward64]

Everyone’s situation is different but what I’d say about retirement is

1) Savings (and investing) is important but at a certain point, it’s not how much you have saved, it’s how much you spend in retirement

2) Eventually, everyone figures out that time is running out and better to enjoy life vs working to buy that next toy

3) It's never enough, there's always that one more turn/year. But in reality, see #1 and #2 above

[Edward64]

re: retirement and time running out, this is kinda what I was alluding to. No idea what her situation was, horrible situation for her and her family.

A Wells Fargo employee at a corporate office in Arizona clocked in to what would be her last-ever shift on a Friday morning. Her body was found four days later at her cubicle desk, where she died sometime during the weekend, according to the Tempe Police Department.

Denise Prudhomme, 60, worked at a Wells Fargo location in Tempe and had scanned into the building at 7 a.m. on August 16. There were no further scans from her either into or out of the building, the police department told CNN in a statement.

On August 20, security on site reported finding an employee possibly dead in a cubicle on the building’s third floor, authorities said. Prudhomme was pronounced dead at 4:55 p.m., according to Tempe police.

Security and/or cleaning folks have some explaining to do.

[Fidatelo]

Originally Posted by Edward64

1) Savings (and investing) is important but at a certain point, it’s not how much you have saved, it’s how much you spend in retirement

This to me is the key, but also the one I have a hard time wrapping my mind around. With the way cost of living has changed the past 5 years I have no confidence I can look out 25 years and be comfortable living within some predefined number even if I were to factor in a random inflation projection.



At a certain point your number 2 will kick in and I'll just bite the bullet and hope I have enough, but I don't think I'll ever feel as though I've actually saved enough (see your number 3, I suppose).

[NobodyHere]

[Edward64]

Yeah, today hurts. I'm not looking at my portfolio until things stabilize or trend upwards again. Fed meeting around the 18th, so hoping it'll happen then.

If the market continues to slide or recession fears dominate the news, won't be good for Kamala.

[GrantDawg]

Over the holiday weekend there was a fun little Tik Tok trend that is going to land a few thousand people in jail. Someone "found" and posted a glich that Chase bank was not putting holds on funds from check deposited. They told people they could just write a check for themselves for any amount, then immediately pull the funds out of the ATM. People were doing it in nominations of $10k+.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Over the holiday weekend there was a fun little Tik Tok trend that is going to land a few thousand people in jail. Someone "found" and posted a glich that Chase bank was not putting holds on funds from check deposited. They told people they could just write a check for themselves for any amount, then immediately pull the funds out of the ATM. People were doing it in nominations of $10k+.

About 50% of online "money life hacks" are just crime.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Yeah, today hurts. I'm not looking at my portfolio until things stabilize or trend upwards again. Fed meeting around the 18th, so hoping it'll happen then.

If the market continues to slide or recession fears dominate the news, won't be good for Kamala.

What are you seeing that worries you about a slide or recession? Markets have had a great YTD (Dow up over 8%, NASDAQ and S&P over 16%) and are all up over the last month. With interests rate higher than most of us are used to, they have cuts available if/when needed. And, presumably, whoever is elected will have some type of tax cut program that will also be available.

I'm obviously not an expert, but things seem much less concerning to me than they did post-Covid and when Ukraine-Russia were first heating up.

[sovereignstar v2]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Are you close to retirement? If not, do what I do and stop looking.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by sovereignstar v2

Are you close to retirement?

Not anymore.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I'm obviously not an expert, but things seem much less concerning to me than they did post-Covid and when Ukraine-Russia were first heating up.

I agree with you. Economy and inflation are better now than before.

But with inflation seemingly beaten, the markets are now asking "what have you done for me lately" and recession is next up worry, and because of how it may impact the elections, it is even more worrisome.

What are you seeing that worries you about a slide or recession? Markets have had a great YTD (Dow up over 8%, NASDAQ and S&P over 16%) and are all up over the last month. With interests rate higher than most of us are used to, they have cuts available if/when needed. And, presumably, whoever is elected will have some type of tax cut program that will also be available.

Let me first say that I don't know if/when a recession will hit, and I'm not saying it will (e.g. my statement started with "if"). The old rule of thumb of 2 quarters negative GDPs for a recession was invalidated 1.5-2 years ago when that happened but apparently it wasn't really a recession because job growth was strong. Also, I know experts were talking recession fears in 4Q of 2023 and they were wrong.

Regarding my statement

If the market continues to slide or recession fears dominate the news, won't be good for Kamala.

Stuff I've read says the egg heads are saying 20-25% chance of recession. So certainly, not a sure thing.

But the chatter picked up in Aug because there was a weaker than expected job reports which contributed to the market dip. And later in Aug, the strong jobs reports in the past year was corrected. Note that Jobs strength is one key input into the Fed decision making. Therefore, the Fed stubbornly NOT decreasing rates earlier this year because of supposed strong jobs, may have been a mistake (e.g. didn't act soon enough ala transitory inflation 2-3 years ago).

The federal government routinely revises economic data, but it rarely makes a correction as large as it did on Wednesday, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported America’s economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than it initially thought over the past year.

So, no sure signs yet. There's another jobs report this Fri and it'll be another data point.

FWIW, I'm on record as saying if I had to pick either stubborn inflation or a recession, I'd pick a recession. So I'm not particularly worried about a recession other than how it could adversely impact the election and the markets (which I know will eventually recover).

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

So, no sure signs yet. There's another jobs report this Fri and it'll be another data point.

Missed on jobs, implying economy is weaker than expected and risk of recession has increased. Markets ain't liking it.

Heading into the release, markets had been pricing in a 100% probability that the Fed will start cutting rates when it meets Sept. 17-18. The only question was how much.

For the next couple weeks, markets will be debating .25 or .5 basis points ... and if its too late already. Sept has been historically sucky for markets, this Sept followed the pattern.

[NobodyHere]

[Arles]

In the summer, bad news was good news. Now, bad news is bad news again. The Market will be choppy until the election.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

No where close to panic .... but am definitely depressed.

This is the third big dip (relatively speaking) this year. I was so close to recovering from the second big dip from Jul-early Aug when this one happened.

Frakking Mercury ... time for another sacrifice.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Frakking Mercury ... time for another sacrifice.

We don't have to eat collard greens again do we?

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

We don't have to eat collard greens again do we?

Only on Jan 1.

During the year, we need to do sacrifices.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

We don't have to eat collard greens again do we?

Nice day.

You see, the sacrifices did work. Now need to figure out how often they need to happen

[Arles]

Anytime the market is down over 2%, I always buy and add to my positions. Today, I trimmed about 10% based on the nice run from my purchases over the past two weeks. If you are a long term holder, you will rarely regret buying 15-20 min til close on a day where the market was deep red. Just make sure to add some back to cash after your position runs 10-15% from that point.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Arles

Anytime the market is down over 2%, I always buy and add to my positions. Today, I trimmed about 10% based on the nice run from my purchases over the past two weeks. If you are a long term holder, you will rarely regret buying 15-20 min til close on a day where the market was deep red. Just make sure to add some back to cash after your position runs 10-15% from that point.

I'm a long term investor (but do have some fun, speculative stocks).

I find myself without cash to buy on a big dip because I'm pretty much fully invested already. So, instead of buying more, I'm just praying it gets back to my PPH personal portfolio high sometime soon.

I do have an emergency fund in a HYSA but not going to touch that.

Overall, it's been a pretty good year.

[Edward64]

Chuckled this morning watching CNBC. A "concierge medicine demand" person was describing older people as "portfolio of risk" and "depreciating assets".

He also brought up time vs money. Similar to my previous post about retirement, at a certain point, it's about time and no longer about money.

[Arles]

If you like to trade a bit (like I do), today isn’t a bad time to trim. Sept 16/17th is one of the worst days to buy and hold a position for 10 days (across history you usually lose 1.2%).

[Edward64]

The markets have spoken. I wouldn't put too much on this as I doubt the respondents in any way represents the overall public. But it gives a vague hint on how the markets will act.

I'd like to read more details but the link in the article just goes to a video.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/17/harr...conomists.html

Some of the top U.S. economists and fund managers now believe Vice President Kamala Harris will win the November presidential election against Donald Trump, according to the latest CNBC Fed Survey.

48% of respondents forecast a Harris victory, while 41% see Trump winning the White House. The result marks a shift from late July’s survey, when 50% of respondents said they expected a Trump victory, and only 37% believed Harris would be elected.

More respondents in the September survey said they thought Trump would be better for the stock market and the economy, but that Harris would be better for the country as a whole.

The 27 respondents to the survey include investment strategists, economists and fund managers.

Regardless, exciting day today with Jerome's decision on .25 vs .50 basis point cuts.

[GrantDawg]

50 bps. Let's go!

[Edward64]

Markets up initially and goes down as Jerome talks … it’s a pattern.

[Edward64]

Oh yeah baby. S&P futures up +1.35%, Nasdaq up +1.82%.

Let's hope it stays that way, otherwise I'll have to drive up to OH again to do some sacrifices.


Edit: Very nice day! Pets in OH are safe from me

[NobodyHere]