2012 MLB Thread (Cabrera Gets Triple Crown, first since Yaz 1967)

[k0ruptr]

dola -

If things stay at least semi on pace, who wins MLB comeback player of the year? Jake Peavy or Adam Dunn?

[rowech]

Originally Posted by Scoobz0202

Upside. I dont place much stock in defensive metrics as I think he is not a below average defender. But if his offense was even average his speed could be utilized even more on the basepaths. But yea, we may be seeing the real and future Stubbs already.

But the current Reds offense doesnt have much going for it, which makes the flack Stubbs gets more frustrating for me. Outside of 2 or 3 players, nobody is performing where they should or you hope they would be. Bruce, Mesoraco, Heisey, Ludwick, Rolen, Cozart, Stubbs are all underachieving. Well, Ludwick might just suck. Then Valdez... so we have Votto, Frazier, and often times Phillips who are performing. I dont want to hear about STUBBS. Everybody is sucking right now minus a few. And it all makes it worse with Dustys unbelievable lineup construction.

Keep in mind, we're all seeing a return to normalcy when it comes to hitting numbers which is why every team right now thinks their offense sucks.

Stubbs is better defensively than his metrics suggest but it's not even close to better by enough of an amount to warrant him being in the lineup. This is what my lineup would look like...

Phillips, Cozart, Votto, Frazier, Bruce, Heisey, Ludwick, Hanigan

It's not much but it is is what it is.

[Scoobz0202]

It always seems like Heisey gets playing time and slowly gets worse. Hes great off the bench, tho.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

What is Stubbs big selling point? Upside?

He is a below average defender(according to defensive metrics), his on base is right around .300, and he cant make consistent contact so unless that changes he is going to be a 250 or lower hitter. Perhaps he will get better but the fact this is 3rd full year and his contact hasnt improved and his walk rate has gotten a tad worse isnt a very promising sign. His BABIP has actually been quite good in the years he was sitting around .250 so it seems he is a natural .230 or lower hitter right now.

Seems like a player that should be playing for a team out of contention and not a player starting for a division leader.

I don't buy that he's a below average defensive player. I've said that before and I stick with it. As for his stats, he'll never be great, but he can be serviceable on a small market team. Look at his career stats when batting second. His career line of .260/.340/.436 isn't astounding, but it isn't terrible. A lot of that is the benefit of hitting in front of Votto, but regardless, he's had success there. But because Dusty is a genius, only 260 of his 1731 plate appearances have been batting second.

[Young Drachma]

Harper is an all-star.

Miami Marlins' Giancarlo Stanton needs knee surgery; Bryce Harper in as All-Star Game replacement - ESPN

[k0ruptr]

in 12 games with Chicago, Youk is hitting .311 with 3 homers and 13 ribbies.

Nice start

[rowech]

This is the most pathetic ejection I've ever seen.

MLB.com Gameday | MLB.com: Gameday

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by rowech

This is the most pathetic ejection I've ever seen.

MLB.com Gameday | MLB.com: Gameday

That was awful.

[stevew]

Lincecum has already given up 4 extra base hits in 3 innings and a few more balls were blistered. Something is wrong.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Has been all year. No idea what changed. Once runners get on base he falls apart. His command (which has always been the "weakest" part of his game) is completely shot.

[stevew]

And he's gone after 10 outs.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Also, interesting to note: Zack Greinke is going to start three consecutive games for his team. He was ejected yesterday in the first inning, so he started today as well. The team has already stated he's starting the first game after the All-Star break. I wonder how often that has ever happened?

[Swaggs]

AJ Burnett is having an interesting year.

If my math is correct, he has had two absolutely horrendous starts where he gave up a combined 18 runs. In his other 13 starts, he has only allowed 18 total runs.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

Also, interesting to note: Zack Greinke is going to start three consecutive games for his team. He was ejected yesterday in the first inning, so he started today as well. The team has already stated he's starting the first game after the All-Star break. I wonder how often that has ever happened?

If he does 3 straight it'll be the first time since 1917 or so. (or 1919, I forget which atm)

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

Also, interesting to note: Zack Greinke is going to start three consecutive games for his team. He was ejected yesterday in the first inning, so he started today as well. The team has already stated he's starting the first game after the All-Star break. I wonder how often that has ever happened?

That ump was a bit touchy on the ejection yesterday

SI

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

That ump was a bit touchy on the ejection yesterday

SI

I liked the way that Grienke handled it with his comments. He said (something to the effect of...) he didn't think his behavior was that bad at the time, but after watching it, he realized how bad it looked and regretted that he put the ump in the position to have to make a decision. Bumps him up a few pegs in my book.

[stevew]

The atmosphere at PNC was awesome today.

[stevew]

Swaggs-
Hate to look ahead, but have you seen the upcoming schedule? No team we face the rest of July has a winning record. Roughly half the games in August are vs teams with winning records.

Too bad Gorkys Hernandez can't hit, as his glove is amazing.

[oykib]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I liked the way that Grienke handled it with his comments. He said (something to the effect of...) he didn't think his behavior was that bad at the time, but after watching it, he realized how bad it looked and regretted that he put the ump in the position to have to make a decision. Bumps him up a few pegs in my book.

I've had a lot of respect for him for a while. But I think he needs to, or his manager needs to, make sure pressure is put on MLB to discipline that umpire. He should certainly be suspended. A clear message that a quick trigger like that is unacceptable needs to be sent.

Imagine if you're the working class father that can afford to take your kids to the stadium once a year, and that happens. No one is going to the stadium or turning on the TV to see these diva umpires. Id've maybe understood if the ump chased him to see if the ball spike was directed toward him. But to eject him without a word... Total BS.

[Suburban Rhythm]

PING stevew and Swaggs

If you haven't read this yet from Sunday's PG

A.J. Burnett makes his mark - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

[stevew]

Yeah, he got a huge ovation from the crowd today. Basically he can chill out and collect his money in Pittsburgh with no stress and be a hero. He'll get one more big 2-3 year contract after this most likely. Plus there are no good hitters in the NL Central other than Braun these days.

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by stevew

Yeah, he got a huge ovation from the crowd today. Basically he can chill out and collect his money in Pittsburgh with no stress and be a hero. He'll get one more big 2-3 year contract after this most likely. Plus there are no good hitters in the NL Central other than Braun these days.

No good hitters?

[stevew]

Oh, I guess I forgot Votto

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by stevew

Oh, I guess I forgot Votto

Yeah.. Beltran, Molina, Holliday.. they all suck.

[stevew]

Excuse me for neglecting to mention the 17th, 21st and 35th best hitters in baseball.

Hitters AJ Burnett was used to facing in the AL East>>>Hitters in the NL Central.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by stevew

Plus there are no good hitters in the NL Central other than Braun these days.

Originally Posted by stevew

Hitters AJ Burnett was used to facing in the AL East>>>Hitters in the NL Central.

The latter is probably the best way to put this

[larrymcg421]

Craig Kimbrel is sexy.

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by stevew

Excuse me for neglecting to mention the 17th, 21st and 35th best hitters in baseball.

Hitters AJ Burnett was used to facing in the AL East>>>Hitters in the NL Central.

I do recall our shitty hitting tallying 7 off Burnett awhile back.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Craig Kimbrel is sexy.

An 0.72 WHIP halfway through the season, even for a closer, is sick

SI

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by stevew

Swaggs-
Hate to look ahead, but have you seen the upcoming schedule? No team we face the rest of July has a winning record. Roughly half the games in August are vs teams with winning records.

Too bad Gorkys Hernandez can't hit, as his glove is amazing.

Would love to get a little more production out of that other OF spot. Right now, we're basically only getting anything from the corner OF or 1B from Jones (and McGehee has been better, but is essentially a platoon mate for Jones). If anything, you have to think that Marte could be doing something better than Presley/Tabata/Sutton.

Also some rumors that the Pirates are talking to the D-Backs about Upton. Not sure how I feel about going all-in on him, but he is a year younger than Cutch and has a contract through 2015. I'd make Cole, Marte, Bell, Heredia, and Henson unavailable, but I think I'd consider doing something based around Taillon and Tabata if we think Appel is going to sign. I'd think an offer of those two, one of the AAA starters that look like they can be a serviceable starter now (Owens, Locke, or Wilson), and one of the AAA relievers that look ready now (Morris or Welker) would be a pretty good offer. That gives you a risky, but high upside replacement in Tabata, a top notch pitching prospect, and two MLB-ready and fully under control pitching prospects to get a look at now.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by MizzouRah

Yeah.. Beltran, Molina, Holliday.. they all suck.

Those guys (except Molina) are all great hitters, but the NL Central is much less of a gauntlet without Pujols (in his prime) and Fielder sitting in the middle of the Cardinals and Brewers lineups. I'd throw Berkman in there, too, until he comes back healthy.

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Those guys (except Molina) are all great hitters, but the NL Central is much less of a gauntlet without Pujols (in his prime) and Fielder sitting in the middle of the Cardinals and Brewers lineups. I'd throw Berkman in there, too, until he comes back healthy.

Oh I would agree.. but to say Braun is the only good hitter in the NL Central is ludicrous.

[korme]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

What is Stubbs big selling point? Upside?

He is a below average defender(according to defensive metrics), his on base is right around .300, and he cant make consistent contact so unless that changes he is going to be a 250 or lower hitter. Perhaps he will get better but the fact this is 3rd full year and his contact hasnt improved and his walk rate has gotten a tad worse isnt a very promising sign. His BABIP has actually been quite good in the years he was sitting around .250 so it seems he is a natural .230 or lower hitter right now.

Seems like a player that should be playing for a team out of contention and not a player starting for a division leader.

Defensive metrics are still inconsistent. Stubbs' #1 selling point is that he runs like a gazelle (on the bases as well) and covers CF like few can.

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Would love to get a little more production out of that other OF spot. Right now, we're basically only getting anything from the corner OF or 1B from Jones (and McGehee has been better, but is essentially a platoon mate for Jones). If anything, you have to think that Marte could be doing something better than Presley/Tabata/Sutton.

Also some rumors that the Pirates are talking to the D-Backs about Upton. Not sure how I feel about going all-in on him, but he is a year younger than Cutch and has a contract through 2015. I'd make Cole, Marte, Bell, Heredia, and Henson unavailable, but I think I'd consider doing something based around Taillon and Tabata if we think Appel is going to sign. I'd think an offer of those two, one of the AAA starters that look like they can be a serviceable starter now (Owens, Locke, or Wilson), and one of the AAA relievers that look ready now (Morris or Welker) would be a pretty good offer. That gives you a risky, but high upside replacement in Tabata, a top notch pitching prospect, and two MLB-ready and fully under control pitching prospects to get a look at now.

Honestly, for Justin Upton who is MVP level talent, Taillon will not be enough. The Indians gave up star pitching prospects for Jiminez, who had only 2.5 years of control; the DBacks have Upton at managable salaries for 3.5 more years. My guess is it will take Taillon (who has not dominated this year) + Marte + another B prospect to make ti close. They have no reason to trade Upton unless bowled over; the history of baseball has a limited set of players who were better than league average hitters at age 20.

(the D-Backs are swimming with young arms; one team that has more pitching talent in the minors than Pittsburgh, with Skaggs + Bauer (just graduated) + Corbin + Bradley).

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

Honestly, for Justin Upton who is MVP level talent, Taillon will not be enough. The Indians gave up star pitching prospects for Jiminez, who had only 2.5 years of control; the DBacks have Upton at managable salaries for 3.5 more years. My guess is it will take Taillon (who has not dominated this year) + Marte + another B prospect to make ti close. They have no reason to trade Upton unless bowled over; the history of baseball has a limited set of players who were better than league average hitters at age 20.

(the D-Backs are swimming with young arms; one team that has more pitching talent in the minors than Pittsburgh, with Skaggs + Bauer (just graduated) + Corbin + Bradley).

Sounds like you are about right.

This guy has some kind of methodology to figure out trade values: Pirates Prospects » Pirates Interested in Justin Upton

Here's what he has (pretty much what you have):

The Pirates would likely have to give up one of Marte or Hanson, in addition to Taillon, to get Upton. That would still leave about $12 M in trade value, which means one of the Indianapolis left-handers, and someone like Robbie Grossman or Gregory Polanco. I’ve already seen people ask if Jose Tabata would be appealing to Arizona. At this point, with Tabata in Triple-A, I don’t think he’d have much trade value. The fact that Pirates fans would easily get rid of him in a deal says all you need to know about his value to other teams.

The Pirates have the prospects to pull off a deal, but the price would be very high. In the short-term they’d have an amazing outfield with two of the top young players in the game. But in the long-term this could look like the deal that sent Mark Teixeira to Atlanta, and sent Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia to Texas.

I think Upton is probably worth it, but I'd rather not do that from a Pirates perspective. They are essentially calling for Taillon (who was #2 overall and got a $5M bonus a few years ago), Marte (who is real close to being MLB ready and looks like he can be a minimum salary starter immediately), someone like Rudy Owens (who is again close to being MLB ready and can probably hold down the fort as a 3-5 starter for minimum salary), and then another hit-or-miss/high upside position player.

I think giving up a guy like Marte, who can play the next 3-4 years for the minimum salary would be too big of a hit for a team with the Pirates' resources.

[Swaggs]

Dola...

Should add that the price may be even higher for Upton with the extra wildcard spot available in each league. I think I heard that 19 teams are currently within 2 games of a playoff spot at the All-Star break, so it should be a sellers' market until things shake out a little more.

[stevew]

I much prefer to go after Carlos Quentin assuming the cost would be someone like Owens and Grossman. I can see the idea behind going after Upton, but I'd prefer to slate Marte in the OF next year and wait to see how the pitchers develop again.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I think I heard that 19 teams are currently within 2 games of a playoff spot at the All-Star break

That one made me go look. Sure enough, counting the current wildcard leaders, there's 8 AL + 5 NL teams with 2.5 of the WC. Throw in six division leaders and that's 19.

At this point the list includes pretty much any team with a pulse (i.e. at/near .500 or better), the only exceptions being 1-under Arizona and 3-under Miami who aren't included in the nineteen.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Sounds like you are about right.

This guy has some kind of methodology to figure out trade values: Pirates Prospects » Pirates Interested in Justin Upton

Here's what he has (pretty much what you have):



I think Upton is probably worth it, but I'd rather not do that from a Pirates perspective. They are essentially calling for Taillon (who was #2 overall and got a $5M bonus a few years ago), Marte (who is real close to being MLB ready and looks like he can be a minimum salary starter immediately), someone like Rudy Owens (who is again close to being MLB ready and can probably hold down the fort as a 3-5 starter for minimum salary), and then another hit-or-miss/high upside position player.

I think giving up a guy like Marte, who can play the next 3-4 years for the minimum salary would be too big of a hit for a team with the Pirates' resources.

Id be very surprised if the dbacks actually traded Upton. Coming into the year he was the future for Arizona. He put up MVP type numbers last year and carried them a big part of the season last year. He isnt having the greatest season this year however he has always been a streaky player so Id imagine one of his hot streaks is coming very soon. From my perspective it doesnt make sense for the dbacks to do this.

Now if this is true and the Pirates can actually get Upton, building around Cutch and Upton would be a very nice start to any team.

[cougarfreak]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Id be very surprised if the dbacks actually traded Upton. Coming into the year he was the future for Arizona. He put up MVP type numbers last year and carried them a big part of the season last year. He isnt having the greatest season this year however he has always been a streaky player so Id imagine one of his hot streaks is coming very soon. From my perspective it doesnt make sense for the dbacks to do this.

Now if this is true and the Pirates can actually get Upton, building around Cutch and Upton would be a very nice start to any team.

I'd be shocked if they traded him as well. Weren't they supposedly "taking offers" for him at some point recently as well, which turned out to be a bunch of fluff? Very rarely do teams trade young players that they have signed to affordable rates long term.

[stevew]

I really hope that Cutch doesnt mess up his swing tonight.

[Subby]

Originally Posted by stevew

I really hope that Cutch doesnt mess up his swing tonight.

Isn't that like one of the seven most common urban myths about baseball?

[stevew]

It probably is.

Regardless, he's locked in right now so much. That I would hate to see anything happen.

[Vince, Pt. II]

LaRussa picks Cain over Dickey to start. Even as a Giants fan, that's sort of a bummer. Dickey's story is great. I love seeing Cain get some recognition, but still.

[Subby]

Nats had a great second half, but I am worried that lack of hitting is going to start catching up to them. They have no leadoff hitters beyond Espinosa and Lombardozzi and both are just barely above 300 OBP (Lombo is 320ish based mostly on a hot start). Which means they have no leadoff hitters. Werth is a traditionally high OBP guy, but I don't know if Davey will have the imagination to put him at the top of the lineup when he returns from the DL. Same with Harper - Harper leading off followed by Werth might actually be worth a shot - plus you give your most dynamic offensive player the most plate appearances.

Desmond is having a really strong year from the six spot - 285/316/515 - pretty unexpected for a guy that Baseball Prospectus had kind of written off in their PECOTA projections prior to the season's start. Davey was smart to move him down from leadoff, so it gives me hope.

[Subby]

Originally Posted by stevew

It probably is.

Regardless, he's locked in right now so much. That I would hate to see anything happen.

Totally agree. Absolutely love his game. Would love to see him help the Bucs get to the playoffs and maybe get the MVP, too.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

LaRussa picks Cain over Dickey to start. Even as a Giants fan, that's sort of a bummer. Dickey's story is great. I love seeing Cain get some recognition, but still.

F'ing A! That's two Giants who are starting over better Mets in this All Star Game (no offense to Giants fans)!

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Should be fun to watch Robinson Cano get booed out of Kauffman Stadium tonight.

Schmuck.

[Logan]

Fill us in please.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

F'ing A! That's two Giants who are starting over better Mets in this All Star Game (no offense to Giants fans)!

Honestly, the only one the Mets have any right to whine about is Cain over Dickey. As much as it pains me to say it, Wright had no business starting over Sandoval a couple of years ago. He just took a payday loan on his ASG start there.