The Stock Market thread

[Lathum]

Trump is now eligible to sell his shares of his failing social media company. Will be interesting to see what happens and how many people are going to lose their shirts because they yet again trusted this grifter.

[flere-imsaho]

Thoughts & prayers.

[Edward64]

Economy looks good with inflation down & jobs still healthy. So yeah, regardless of who wins, I'm thinking 2025 is looking good unless there is a major negative event.

September’s outsized payrolls boost takes the U.S. economy out of the shadows of recession and gives the Fed a glide path to a soft landing.

The big jobs gain virtually eliminated any chance that the central bank would be repeating its half percentage point interest rate cut from September anytime soon.

The Fed next meets Nov. 6-7, right after the U.S. presidential election and a five-week span during which it will get plenty more to digest.

Historical performance does not predict the future yadi yadi yada, so FWIW

How Elections Impact Markets | Edward Jones

[NobodyHere]

So what's up with Trump Media?

In the past week the stock has gone up about 50%!

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

So what's up with Trump Media?

In the past week the stock has gone up about 50%!

Either odds winning have gone up and/or Elon is pumping it up. I'll stick with Nvidia, S&P 500 and growth ETFs.

[RainMaker]

I think it's a mix of these two things:

1) It's a meme stock and their valuations don't tend to match up with reality. The company doesn't make money and has no real plans to make money. Just a lot of people pumping and dumping or playing other games with the stock.

2) It's money laundering. A country or wealthy person is going to have trouble just giving a Presidential candidate money. But if you juice his stock and he makes millions from that new price, it's a way get around campaign finance rules. Same goes for his new $100k watch. Or when the Saudis would pay top dollar to rent out rooms at his hotels. Just a way to do a bribe indirectly.

[GrantDawg]

I have a feeling it is two. I know he just recently was allowed to start selling stock. It wouldn't surprise me if this bump was coinciding with him selling some of his holding.

[Edward64]

DJT up +18.5% today.

Trump Media did not announce a sudden revenue stream or a flashy new product that could explain the move. It didn’t land an endorsement from Wall Street analysts or a major shareholder.

Instead, the turnaround has been fueled by the perceived odds of Trump winning in November. Trump Media has long served as a way for traders to bet on the election.

The race for the White House remains incredibly close and could still go either way. But the betting markets and some recent polls have shifted somewhat in Trump’s favor.

Pure gambling, a roll of the dice.

“It’s really simple. People realize that if Trump gets elected, this stock has the potential to do something. And if he doesn’t get elected, it probably goes to zero,” said Matthew Tuttle, CEO of Tuttle Capital Management.

It's also been a pretty good couple weeks for Nvidia.

Nvidia up +2.43% is now at $3.39T. It still has the AI momentum and good bet they'll take over from #1 Apple at $3.52T.

[RainMaker]

That actually does make sense. If he wins, it'll be the best way to legally bribe him in office. And whoever got in on the stock can enjoy the wave. And the way things are going, it seems more and more likely he'll win.

[flere-imsaho]

While it's been well documented that Trump has failed at pretty much everything, you have to admit he has broken new ground when it comes to money laundering. Especially money laudering that apparently appears impossible to prosecute.

[NobodyHere]

How effective of a bribing method is it?

Let's say I want to give $1000 to Trump. How much would I have to invest to make sure Trump sees that $1000?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

How effective of a bribing method is it?

Let's say I want to give $1000 to Trump. How much would I have to invest to make sure Trump sees that $1000?

I think you're looking at it at to micro a level. The Saudis, Russia, etc...will dump hundreds of millions into boosting the stock price, thus boosting all the shares Trump owns.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I think you're looking at it at to micro a level. The Saudis, Russia, etc...will dump hundreds of millions into boosting the stock price, thus boosting all the shares Trump owns.

Yeah, he owns 57% of the company I believe. So any increase to the market cap is going to make him a fortune. This isn't for some small donor, it's for the Saudis, Israelis, China, etc to invest a billion dollars in and get everything they want in return. And Trump gets his cut.

It's kind of brilliant in a way. Don't have to hide gold bars in your basement or whatever.

The stock is worthless if he doesn't win so I think it's a good gauge of how the race is shaping up. With Kamala's fall and her internals looking so bad, the stock has jumped a lot the past week. If that changes, the stock will tumble before election day.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

If that changes, the stock will tumble before election day.

Trading was put on hold a bit ago after a $6/share drop

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by cartman

Trading was put on hold a bit ago after a $6/share drop

Shares are being traded at a volume many times higher than the 30 day average just today. Would we know when Trump sells his stock? That is public record, right?

[GrantDawg]

Dola: And as we discuss money laundering, is there any easier way to transfer money straight to Trump than the crypto-currency? Isn't he (and his partners) just directly getting the money from whatever amount of coin is initially sold?

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Dola: And as we discuss money laundering, is there any easier way to transfer money straight to Trump than the crypto-currency? Isn't he (and his partners) just directly getting the money from whatever amount of coin is initially sold?

Don't forget selling $100k watches that probably cost them a few hundred to make. Some Saudi Prince just so happens to want to buy 1000 of them as "gifts" for his friends.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Don't forget selling $100k watches that probably cost them a few hundred to make. Some Saudi Prince just so happens to want to buy 1000 of them as "gifts" for his friends.

Actually the most direct. Considering the fine print on it didn't even promise the watch would be the one in the picture, they could literally send them toy watches back.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

DJT up +18.5% today.
:
It's also been a pretty good couple weeks for Nvidia.

Nvidia up +2.43% is now at $3.39T. It still has the AI momentum and good bet they'll take over from #1 Apple at $3.52T.

Oh well, easy come, easy go.

DJT down -9.7%. Nvidia down -4.5%. I know why Nvidia went down. Not sure about DJT.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Oh well, easy come, easy go.

DJT down -9.7%. Nvidia down -4.5%. I know why Nvidia went down. Not sure about DJT.

Well I just recently bought a GeForce 4060 TI as part of a new gaming computer. I hope that raises the price of the stock.

[Ksyrup]

I guess McDonald's stock hasn't sank so low that someone can use the "McD's stock takes a quarter pounding" headline, eh?

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

That actually does make sense. If he wins, it'll be the best way to legally bribe him in office. And whoever got in on the stock can enjoy the wave. And the way things are going, it seems more and more likely he'll win.

Somebody must be bribing Elon Musk today.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Somebody must be bribing Elon Musk today.

The +20% was because Tesla came ahead of earnings.

But, also because of his best guess statement below.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk said his “best guess” is that “vehicle growth” will reach 20% to 30% next year. That prediction was ahead of the 15% expected by analysts surveyed by FactSet.

I'd take his best guess prediction with a grain of salt.

I do want Tesla to be successful, put their superchargers everywhere, and come out with the $25K version to sell to the world. And if the US government has to subsidize this asshole's success, it's for the greater, long term good.

[RainMaker]

Tesla just axed the $25k model. It was needed to compete with BYD but the government just banned competition on EV models so the car companies don't have to bother with the lower priced models anymore.

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by Edward64

But, also because of his best guess statement below.

I'd take his best guess prediction with a grain of salt.

"I feel very confident predicting autonomous robotaxis for Tesla next year," Musk said... in 2019

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I do want Tesla to be successful, put their superchargers everywhere ...

After I posted this, I caught a YT video of a guy traveling north to south in a Tesla and some other EV. He stopped at Tesla chargers and all others.

I don't know how representative it really is, but he had bad experiences with the all other chargers. Quite a few of them didn't charge to stated kilowatts. He did say it got better in Georgia & Florida.

Minimal issues with Tesla chargers.

[NobodyHere]

Russia fines Google $20,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

I'm sure the check is in the mail.

[NobodyHere]

[Lathum]

So according to Trump logic Harris is going to win?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Russia fines Google $20,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

I'm sure the check is in the mail.

Feels like this implies that Russia would have taken over the world if not for Google.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

... time for another sacrifice.

I'll be driving to OH this weekend.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Edward64

The +20% was because Tesla came ahead of earnings.

But, also because of his best guess statement below.



I'd take his best guess prediction with a grain of salt.

I do want Tesla to be successful, put their superchargers everywhere, and come out with the $25K version to sell to the world. And if the US government has to subsidize this asshole's success, it's for the greater, long term good.

Remember, socialism and bad and free market is good…..unless you happen to be a MAGA billionaire. At that point we socialize your success because it’s for the greater good.

If we can’t compete in this sector we can’t compete. We should stop wasting money on failed projects and let the market play itself out.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Remember, socialism and bad and free market is good…..

Sure, I definitely agree with you in general. But where we differ is I don't believe pure free markets work without some sort of intervention when/if needed.

During the Great Recession, bailouts were needed. To let the credit markets freeze up and have many more companies fail (and economy sliding into something worse) would be to cut off our nose to spite our face. And the bailouts worked, last time I checked, I believe the US government made a net profit from the bailouts.

If we can’t compete in this sector we can’t compete. We should stop wasting money on failed projects and let the market play itself out.

If you're talking about piston engine cars, textiles, consumer electronics and like, I agree with you.

For strategic industries & companies, government should be involved to help in the incubation process, prevent theft of intellectual property, keep some sort of domestic production (e.g. TSMC facilities in the US) etc. All of this will require some sort of government assistance, and I'm okay with it.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Sure, I definitely agree with you in general. But where we differ is I don't believe pure free markets work without some sort of intervention when/if needed.

During the Great Recession, bailouts were needed. To let the credit markets freeze up and have many more companies fail (and economy sliding into something worse) would be to cut off our nose to spite our face. And the bailouts worked, last time I checked, I believe the US government made a net profit from the bailouts.



If you're talking about piston engine cars, textiles, consumer electronics and like, I agree with you.

For strategic industries & companies, government should be involved to help in the incubation process, prevent theft of intellectual property, keep some sort of domestic production (e.g. TSMC facilities in the US) etc. All of this will require some sort of government assistance, and I'm okay with it.

I’m talking specifically about TESLA and electric automobiles here. He’s a government made billionaire in a sector he still can’t compete in without the government helping him.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by dubb93

I’m talking specifically about TESLA and electric automobiles here. He’s a government made billionaire in a sector he still can’t compete in without the government helping him.

IMO the domestic EV industry is still emerging (not only cars but also those super chargers). And it's in our strategic interest (e.g. less dependence on ME oil) to make it work.

US is giving tax credits for EV car purchases, solar panels etc. Our infrastructure bill gives billions to states & companies create the infrastructure. We may not like Musk, but Tesla is the car & EV company that stands to benefit the most because of their EV domination in the US.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by dubb93

I’m talking specifically about TESLA and electric automobiles here. He’s a government made billionaire in a sector he still can’t compete in without the government helping him.

Name one EV car making that isn't heavily reliant on government assistance. China is 10-times worse than the US and European companies are getting massive subsidies to reduce carbon output.

If people want an infrastructure setup to support EV adoption in cars/trucks, the government will need to be supporting it. Most people feel that the long term benefit of moving away from gas powered engines is worth some government support.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Arles

Name one EV car making that isn't heavily reliant on government assistance. China is 10-times worse than the US and European companies are getting massive subsidies to reduce carbon output.

If people want an infrastructure setup to support EV adoption in cars/trucks, the government will need to be supporting it. Most people feel that the long term benefit of moving away from gas powered engines is worth some government support.

This. And i don't believe our future in EV's relies solely or even mostly on Tesla. Tesla had a big head start in the process, but they have mostly squandered that producing sub-par vehicles. Higher quality EV's are out and more are coming at better price points, while edge-lord Elon is producing shitty quality, ugly trucks and trying to push the country into eugenics.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

This. And i don't believe our future in EV's relies solely or even mostly on Tesla. Tesla had a big head start in the process, but they have mostly squandered that producing sub-par vehicles. Higher quality EV's are out and more are coming at better price points, while edge-lord Elon is producing shitty quality, ugly trucks and trying to push the country into eugenics.

The reason they blocked the cheap EVs from coming into the country is that car companies here didn't want to have to make a cheap EV and hurt profit margins. So I don't think you'll see better price points soon. The goal was to keep prices high.

I would be fine with building EV infrastructure if the goal was more EV adoption, but this is just a handout to domestic car manufacturers and upper middle class people who can afford a $70k car.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

The reason they blocked the cheap EVs from coming into the country is that car companies here didn't want to have to make a cheap EV and hurt profit margins. So I don't think you'll see better price points soon. The goal was to keep prices high.

I would be fine with building EV infrastructure if the goal was more EV adoption, but this is just a handout to domestic car manufacturers and upper middle class people who can afford a $70k car.

This is pretty close to where I’m at on the issue.

[Ksyrup]

I'm at an age where I'm not going out of my way to be an early adopter of something just to cause myself inconvenience "for the cause." I get the chicken-and-egg thing about EV infrastructure only being worth it if enough EVs are on the road, but between this issue and how the cold apparently affects battery life, it's a hard no from me. I'll look seriously at a hybrid in 3-5 years when I hope to be looking for a new car, unless there's been some sort of "eureka!" moment in EV evolution.

[RainMaker]

If they were selling for under $30k, they'd make the perfect daily commuter car. But priced in the high end luxury range, some of the issues with an EV become more glaring. I'm just not paying that much for it.

[Ksyrup]

Well, my commute is 130-140 miles round trip, so I'm not worrying about running out of battery on my way home from work during winter.

But yeah, a cheap EV that I only use for driving 30 minute trips around town, sure.

[Edward64]

If Trump loses, there'll be a lot of people hurting.

I do wonder if these are more r/wsb traders with money to lose (they bet on all sorts of things and this is more gambling/making money than politics) or widespread institutional trading (not Fidelity or Vanguard but like hedge funds) or is it more consumers.

My gut tells me more traders and institutions than the regular MAGA supporters.

DJT stock slumps 20% over last 5 days to cap volatile week ahead of Harris, Trump election

Since Tuesday, more than $4 billion has been shaved from the company's market cap, although the stock still has more than doubled from its September lows.

"It's a binary bet on the election," Matthew Tuttle, CEO of investment fund Tuttle Capital Management, told Yahoo Finance's Catalysts show on Monday.

Tuttle, who currently owns put options on the stock, said the trajectory of shares hinges on "a buy the rumor, sell the fact" trading strategy.

"I would imagine that the day after him winning, you'd see this come down," he surmised. "If he loses, I think it goes to zero."

[Lathum]

I think it is also a lot of foreign interests pumping it up as a way to bribe Trump.

[Edward64]

Very nice day! Clawed back some losses from late October.

What I read was its election day, not specifically that Trump or Kamala will win. More of a broad-based relief rally that election season is coming to a close.

I think higher odds of short term market losses if Trump wins because of his unpredictability, tariffs and off-the-cuff comments. But who really knows.

[Edward64]

Futures are up quite a bit with the Trump win. Should be a good day (and hopefully, rest of week, year, and next 4 years).

Dow +2.69%
S&P +2.19%
Nasdaq +1.80%

I don't get it; I'd be concerned about the tariffs. But then the markets, in retrospect, predicted a Trump win ...

Supposedly, Trumps plans come up to $10T in new debt. Ouch. I think I'll be doing some Roth conversions, so I don't have to worry as much about future tax rate increases.

[Ksyrup]

"Dow futures surge 1200 points"

[Edward64]

Politics consequences aside ... yeah, baby!

I wonder why tech heavy Nasdaq is trailing. Still doing great but trailing the other 2.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Politics consequences aside ... yeah, baby!

r 2.

I just posted in the other thread. I did my part, I refuse to feel bad about any personal gain I may now get from a Trump presidency.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I just posted in the other thread. I did my part, I refuse to feel bad about any personal gain I may now get from a Trump presidency.

For me financially, Joe wasn't better vs Trump.

Joe's pork/freebies didn't impact me much. I was actually better off financially with Trump but voted for Joe/Kamala.

So yeah, I'll feel bad, conscience will prick me some but I won't feel majorly bad about any personal gain.