The Stock Market thread

[Lathum]

Trump is now eligible to sell his shares of his failing social media company. Will be interesting to see what happens and how many people are going to lose their shirts because they yet again trusted this grifter.

[flere-imsaho]

Thoughts & prayers.

[Edward64]

Economy looks good with inflation down & jobs still healthy. So yeah, regardless of who wins, I'm thinking 2025 is looking good unless there is a major negative event.

September’s outsized payrolls boost takes the U.S. economy out of the shadows of recession and gives the Fed a glide path to a soft landing.

The big jobs gain virtually eliminated any chance that the central bank would be repeating its half percentage point interest rate cut from September anytime soon.

The Fed next meets Nov. 6-7, right after the U.S. presidential election and a five-week span during which it will get plenty more to digest.

Historical performance does not predict the future yadi yadi yada, so FWIW

How Elections Impact Markets | Edward Jones

[NobodyHere]

So what's up with Trump Media?

In the past week the stock has gone up about 50%!

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

So what's up with Trump Media?

In the past week the stock has gone up about 50%!

Either odds winning have gone up and/or Elon is pumping it up. I'll stick with Nvidia, S&P 500 and growth ETFs.

[RainMaker]

I think it's a mix of these two things:

1) It's a meme stock and their valuations don't tend to match up with reality. The company doesn't make money and has no real plans to make money. Just a lot of people pumping and dumping or playing other games with the stock.

2) It's money laundering. A country or wealthy person is going to have trouble just giving a Presidential candidate money. But if you juice his stock and he makes millions from that new price, it's a way get around campaign finance rules. Same goes for his new $100k watch. Or when the Saudis would pay top dollar to rent out rooms at his hotels. Just a way to do a bribe indirectly.

[GrantDawg]

I have a feeling it is two. I know he just recently was allowed to start selling stock. It wouldn't surprise me if this bump was coinciding with him selling some of his holding.

[Edward64]

DJT up +18.5% today.

Trump Media did not announce a sudden revenue stream or a flashy new product that could explain the move. It didn’t land an endorsement from Wall Street analysts or a major shareholder.

Instead, the turnaround has been fueled by the perceived odds of Trump winning in November. Trump Media has long served as a way for traders to bet on the election.

The race for the White House remains incredibly close and could still go either way. But the betting markets and some recent polls have shifted somewhat in Trump’s favor.

Pure gambling, a roll of the dice.

“It’s really simple. People realize that if Trump gets elected, this stock has the potential to do something. And if he doesn’t get elected, it probably goes to zero,” said Matthew Tuttle, CEO of Tuttle Capital Management.

It's also been a pretty good couple weeks for Nvidia.

Nvidia up +2.43% is now at $3.39T. It still has the AI momentum and good bet they'll take over from #1 Apple at $3.52T.

[RainMaker]

That actually does make sense. If he wins, it'll be the best way to legally bribe him in office. And whoever got in on the stock can enjoy the wave. And the way things are going, it seems more and more likely he'll win.

[flere-imsaho]

While it's been well documented that Trump has failed at pretty much everything, you have to admit he has broken new ground when it comes to money laundering. Especially money laudering that apparently appears impossible to prosecute.

[NobodyHere]

How effective of a bribing method is it?

Let's say I want to give $1000 to Trump. How much would I have to invest to make sure Trump sees that $1000?