The Stock Market thread

[Lathum]

Trump is now eligible to sell his shares of his failing social media company. Will be interesting to see what happens and how many people are going to lose their shirts because they yet again trusted this grifter.

[flere-imsaho]

Thoughts & prayers.

[Edward64]

Economy looks good with inflation down & jobs still healthy. So yeah, regardless of who wins, I'm thinking 2025 is looking good unless there is a major negative event.

September’s outsized payrolls boost takes the U.S. economy out of the shadows of recession and gives the Fed a glide path to a soft landing.

The big jobs gain virtually eliminated any chance that the central bank would be repeating its half percentage point interest rate cut from September anytime soon.

The Fed next meets Nov. 6-7, right after the U.S. presidential election and a five-week span during which it will get plenty more to digest.

Historical performance does not predict the future yadi yadi yada, so FWIW

How Elections Impact Markets | Edward Jones

[NobodyHere]

So what's up with Trump Media?

In the past week the stock has gone up about 50%!

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

So what's up with Trump Media?

In the past week the stock has gone up about 50%!

Either odds winning have gone up and/or Elon is pumping it up. I'll stick with Nvidia, S&P 500 and growth ETFs.

[RainMaker]

I think it's a mix of these two things:

1) It's a meme stock and their valuations don't tend to match up with reality. The company doesn't make money and has no real plans to make money. Just a lot of people pumping and dumping or playing other games with the stock.

2) It's money laundering. A country or wealthy person is going to have trouble just giving a Presidential candidate money. But if you juice his stock and he makes millions from that new price, it's a way get around campaign finance rules. Same goes for his new $100k watch. Or when the Saudis would pay top dollar to rent out rooms at his hotels. Just a way to do a bribe indirectly.

[GrantDawg]

I have a feeling it is two. I know he just recently was allowed to start selling stock. It wouldn't surprise me if this bump was coinciding with him selling some of his holding.

[Edward64]

DJT up +18.5% today.

Trump Media did not announce a sudden revenue stream or a flashy new product that could explain the move. It didn’t land an endorsement from Wall Street analysts or a major shareholder.

Instead, the turnaround has been fueled by the perceived odds of Trump winning in November. Trump Media has long served as a way for traders to bet on the election.

The race for the White House remains incredibly close and could still go either way. But the betting markets and some recent polls have shifted somewhat in Trump’s favor.

Pure gambling, a roll of the dice.

“It’s really simple. People realize that if Trump gets elected, this stock has the potential to do something. And if he doesn’t get elected, it probably goes to zero,” said Matthew Tuttle, CEO of Tuttle Capital Management.

It's also been a pretty good couple weeks for Nvidia.

Nvidia up +2.43% is now at $3.39T. It still has the AI momentum and good bet they'll take over from #1 Apple at $3.52T.

[RainMaker]

That actually does make sense. If he wins, it'll be the best way to legally bribe him in office. And whoever got in on the stock can enjoy the wave. And the way things are going, it seems more and more likely he'll win.

[flere-imsaho]

While it's been well documented that Trump has failed at pretty much everything, you have to admit he has broken new ground when it comes to money laundering. Especially money laudering that apparently appears impossible to prosecute.

[NobodyHere]

How effective of a bribing method is it?

Let's say I want to give $1000 to Trump. How much would I have to invest to make sure Trump sees that $1000?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

How effective of a bribing method is it?

Let's say I want to give $1000 to Trump. How much would I have to invest to make sure Trump sees that $1000?

I think you're looking at it at to micro a level. The Saudis, Russia, etc...will dump hundreds of millions into boosting the stock price, thus boosting all the shares Trump owns.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I think you're looking at it at to micro a level. The Saudis, Russia, etc...will dump hundreds of millions into boosting the stock price, thus boosting all the shares Trump owns.

Yeah, he owns 57% of the company I believe. So any increase to the market cap is going to make him a fortune. This isn't for some small donor, it's for the Saudis, Israelis, China, etc to invest a billion dollars in and get everything they want in return. And Trump gets his cut.

It's kind of brilliant in a way. Don't have to hide gold bars in your basement or whatever.

The stock is worthless if he doesn't win so I think it's a good gauge of how the race is shaping up. With Kamala's fall and her internals looking so bad, the stock has jumped a lot the past week. If that changes, the stock will tumble before election day.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

If that changes, the stock will tumble before election day.

Trading was put on hold a bit ago after a $6/share drop

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by cartman

Trading was put on hold a bit ago after a $6/share drop

Shares are being traded at a volume many times higher than the 30 day average just today. Would we know when Trump sells his stock? That is public record, right?

[GrantDawg]

Dola: And as we discuss money laundering, is there any easier way to transfer money straight to Trump than the crypto-currency? Isn't he (and his partners) just directly getting the money from whatever amount of coin is initially sold?

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Dola: And as we discuss money laundering, is there any easier way to transfer money straight to Trump than the crypto-currency? Isn't he (and his partners) just directly getting the money from whatever amount of coin is initially sold?

Don't forget selling $100k watches that probably cost them a few hundred to make. Some Saudi Prince just so happens to want to buy 1000 of them as "gifts" for his friends.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Don't forget selling $100k watches that probably cost them a few hundred to make. Some Saudi Prince just so happens to want to buy 1000 of them as "gifts" for his friends.

Actually the most direct. Considering the fine print on it didn't even promise the watch would be the one in the picture, they could literally send them toy watches back.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

DJT up +18.5% today.
:
It's also been a pretty good couple weeks for Nvidia.

Nvidia up +2.43% is now at $3.39T. It still has the AI momentum and good bet they'll take over from #1 Apple at $3.52T.

Oh well, easy come, easy go.

DJT down -9.7%. Nvidia down -4.5%. I know why Nvidia went down. Not sure about DJT.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Oh well, easy come, easy go.

DJT down -9.7%. Nvidia down -4.5%. I know why Nvidia went down. Not sure about DJT.

Well I just recently bought a GeForce 4060 TI as part of a new gaming computer. I hope that raises the price of the stock.

[Ksyrup]

I guess McDonald's stock hasn't sank so low that someone can use the "McD's stock takes a quarter pounding" headline, eh?

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

That actually does make sense. If he wins, it'll be the best way to legally bribe him in office. And whoever got in on the stock can enjoy the wave. And the way things are going, it seems more and more likely he'll win.

Somebody must be bribing Elon Musk today.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Somebody must be bribing Elon Musk today.

The +20% was because Tesla came ahead of earnings.

But, also because of his best guess statement below.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk said his “best guess” is that “vehicle growth” will reach 20% to 30% next year. That prediction was ahead of the 15% expected by analysts surveyed by FactSet.

I'd take his best guess prediction with a grain of salt.

I do want Tesla to be successful, put their superchargers everywhere, and come out with the $25K version to sell to the world. And if the US government has to subsidize this asshole's success, it's for the greater, long term good.

[RainMaker]

Tesla just axed the $25k model. It was needed to compete with BYD but the government just banned competition on EV models so the car companies don't have to bother with the lower priced models anymore.

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by Edward64

But, also because of his best guess statement below.

I'd take his best guess prediction with a grain of salt.

"I feel very confident predicting autonomous robotaxis for Tesla next year," Musk said... in 2019

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I do want Tesla to be successful, put their superchargers everywhere ...

After I posted this, I caught a YT video of a guy traveling north to south in a Tesla and some other EV. He stopped at Tesla chargers and all others.

I don't know how representative it really is, but he had bad experiences with the all other chargers. Quite a few of them didn't charge to stated kilowatts. He did say it got better in Georgia & Florida.

Minimal issues with Tesla chargers.

[NobodyHere]

Russia fines Google $20,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

I'm sure the check is in the mail.

[NobodyHere]

[Lathum]

So according to Trump logic Harris is going to win?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Russia fines Google $20,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

I'm sure the check is in the mail.

Feels like this implies that Russia would have taken over the world if not for Google.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

... time for another sacrifice.

I'll be driving to OH this weekend.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Edward64

The +20% was because Tesla came ahead of earnings.

But, also because of his best guess statement below.



I'd take his best guess prediction with a grain of salt.

I do want Tesla to be successful, put their superchargers everywhere, and come out with the $25K version to sell to the world. And if the US government has to subsidize this asshole's success, it's for the greater, long term good.

Remember, socialism and bad and free market is good…..unless you happen to be a MAGA billionaire. At that point we socialize your success because it’s for the greater good.

If we can’t compete in this sector we can’t compete. We should stop wasting money on failed projects and let the market play itself out.