The Stock Market thread

[flere-imsaho]

Every Republican Presidency for the past 45 years has ended with a recession.

[Edward64]

Russel 2000 (smaller companies) was up +3% earlier. It's now up +6%.

Dow up from 1,200 to 1,300. And ... DJT up +29%.

Markets are going to be crazy.

[Edward64]

In my Fidelity account to look at stuff.

There are some serious performance/response issues and error messages. I sure hope its just a bunch of other people like me vs some sort of hack attack. I've never seen it this bad before.

[Edward64]

Very nice day.

Dow +3.57%
S&P +2.53%
Nasdaq +2.95%
Russell 2000 +5.84%

DJT +5.94%
Tesla +14.75%
Bitcoin +9.12%

Lot's of paper wealth created today. I do think when reporting on a President's market performance, they should give stats that starts/ends on Inauguration day and also Election day.

[NobodyHere]

[PilotMan]

Meanwhile the 30yr jumped by about a sixth of a point in one day. So there's that too. That's the highest it's been since July. The Fed will cut rates tomorrow, but it's likely that interest rates continue to push higher.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

And the party keeps on going ...

Except for DJT, down -17.6%. Wonder if insiders are selling now ...

[Edward64]

Among other things in his press conference, Jerome said below. The markets strengthened a little, did not go down so think the markets likes Jerome (right now).

During a press conference Thursday afternoon, Powell said he would not step down from his position as Fed chief even if President-elect Donald Trump asked him to.

“No,” he said in response to a reporter’s question on whether or not he would leave if Trump asked him to resign.

Later on, another reporter asked Powell if the president had the power to fire or demote him from his position. The Fed chair responded that such an action was “not permitted under the law.”

Googled on it and found below wiki

The president may not have the legal authority to dismiss a chairman before the end of a term, although this assumption has never been tested in court.

It'll be a fun to see it play out if Trump pushes this.


Markets today. Been an impressive week so far.

Dow +0%
S&P +.74%
Nasdaq +1.51%
Russell 2000 -.31%

[Arles]

Honestly, I think Powell has done pretty well. I think he over raised rates a bit, but it was probably better to overdo it than under. We basically survived a pandemic that kept people house-bound, massive supply chain challenges, a war in the Ukraine and a high interest rate environment over a 4-5 year period with no real major economic or market impact.

[Edward64]

I agree. He's done a good job.

He screwed up with "transitory" inflation but can't fault the recovery. And heck, it was in 2021, in the middle of Covid so he gets a partial pass for that.

I don't know how many times I read/watched experts say he raised rates too quickly, that he didn't lower them quickly enough etc. and how we were going to plunge into a recession. But ultimately, Jerome was right (so far).

[flere-imsaho]

I think the real challenge here, going forward, is trying to figure out when the sugar rush from corporate tax cuts and other favorable business policies ends and is replaced by the inevitable recession created by mismanagement of the economy.

Speaking as someone who's nearing a retirement number in the next few years (variability due to currently unknown college costs) it's actually a thing. I don't want to retire next year and then see my portfolio shrink by 30% 2 years later.

[Swaggs]

Who knows if Trump will actually use tariffs like he campaigned on, but seeing a fair amount of companies building up goods and materials now (some up to a year's worth in construction), so I'd expect the market to stay promising early on. Mark Cuban says that build up will work for both foreign and domestic companies right now, but when tariffs hit it will depress markets and to expect US exports to also get hit with tariffs in response. Hoping Trump backs off the tariff plans and probably a decent chance he was just overpromising, but, if not, not looking forward to another depressed manufacturing market AND more disruption to supply chain.

[Ksyrup]

Don't count on it. From Politico:

Advisers close to President-elect Donald Trump have been in discussions with House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) on a broad tax package that is partially paid for by tariffs approved by Congress, according to two people familiar with the conversations who were granted anonymity to describe the internal discussions. . . .

The discussions come as Republicans are gearing up to pass a massive tax bill, which would include $4.6 trillion of expiring Trump tax cuts and potentially several other tax proposals floated by Trump on the campaign trail. They include Trump’s ideas to remove “tax on tips” and eliminate taxes on Social Security, among many others. . . . the conversations signal that congressional Republicans could be open to imposing tariffs on Trump’s behalf via legislation.

[JPhillips]

And just like clockwork the deficit doesn't matter anymore.

[Edward64]

... and eliminate taxes on Social Security

I know good chance this is not practical and only adds to the deficit & shortfall crisis with social security, but I'll be honest and say this really appeals to me. I would be happy to get this pork (when I hit 67).

I promise I'll spend the money and put it back into the economy.

[Swaggs]

The no tax on tips stuff just seems crazy and unfair, but it occurs to me that, as the economy becomes more and more cashless, a lot of service workers that work for tips and had not been reporting cash (ie: not paying taxes on it) were probably feeling it more over the past 10-15 years since I am sure the majority of transactions are now done on credit or cash app.

[BYU 14]

If applied, the SSN tax cut will hasten the depletion of the fund, most likely in the next decade.