WW CXXXIX - The Red Death II - GAME OVER, SERVANTS WIN

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

A couple thoughts.

Since I am in the game as the Scientist, it makes sense the Tinkerer is in the game, too.

Also, the sprig of holly could be one of the key elements the Lifegiver needs to bring someone back to life.

I buy Narc's reveal. I would still like to hear from EF.

I think that makes the most sense after reading up on it.

[Autumn]

That's true, I kepe forgetting Bug could corrupt himself without the bad guys' help. Hoops you were saying you couldn't believe 2 kills and a conversion, but keep that in mind. Maybe a corrupted seer doesn't even know it, but turns into one of those false seer who returns bad results? Hell, this game is a mess!

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

This morning my paranoid self was saying that Bug was converted on night three but I convinced myself not to listen to him. The wolves picked up on him being the seer and decided to grab him. That's why Danny wasn't converted. Bug was. I don't know if that's the case, maybe he was converted by his spells. But really, it's pretty clear to me that Bug is getting what he can after Eagle's reveal.

You have the day I was converted? That is quite a level of paranoia you have. That also doesn't explain why I would pick you and not eaglefan.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

This morning my paranoid self was saying that Bug was converted on night three but I convinced myself not to listen to him. The wolves picked up on him being the seer and decided to grab him. That's why Danny wasn't converted. Bug was. I don't know if that's the case, maybe he was converted by his spells. But really, it's pretty clear to me that Bug is getting what he can after Eagle's reveal.

I'm willing to buy you another day as I'm more not sold on bug than you.

Vote Bug

If he comes up wolf you can always protect yourself, if villager not so much.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Autumn

That's true, I kepe forgetting Bug could corrupt himself without the bad guys' help. Hoops you were saying you couldn't believe 2 kills and a conversion, but keep that in mind. Maybe a corrupted seer doesn't even know it, but turns into one of those false seer who returns bad results? Hell, this game is a mess!

I think the rules stated he would become bad and get a new role, but will quote that after this, need more posts. As for Bug I think it kind of makes sense he could have converted himself because he was throwing out how rediculous it was for to vote him out over a 1/100 shot when it probably is much more likely than that and since he did it three times at least 3/100.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

This morning my paranoid self was saying that Bug was converted on night three but I convinced myself not to listen to him. The wolves picked up on him being the seer and decided to grab him. That's why Danny wasn't converted. Bug was. I don't know if that's the case, maybe he was converted by his spells. But really, it's pretty clear to me that Bug is getting what he can after Eagle's reveal.

While my thinking leans toward yours, but there's just a lot of stuff that makes no sense about EF, too. If he's a seer, why did he jump in and reveal just one scan and leave? Why did he call Bug a convert? That doesn't seem to be info he would get as a seer. What role does he claim to be if not the seer? There does not seem to be a role corresponding to his that I can see.

Although, should be noted, Abe said it's possible we have Lightbringer roles that are not listed.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

None of the Red Death roles are known. However, you are aware of these Lightbringer roles:

Adept – You are able to, once per night, cast an Auramancy spell that will tell you if someone is a Servant of the Red Death. However, it has been shown in the past that many Servants do not show up as evil, so this is not a guaranteed way. Each time you choose to cast the Auramancy spell, there is a small but very real chance that the magic will corrupt you, since all magic comes from the Red Death.

Please note the difference between a night “attack” and a night “corruption.” Both are forms of “actions.” They are two different types of actions, and these roles refer to one or the other frequently as appropriate.

Not all of these roles will be in the game. It's possible there could be Lightbringer roles not listed above as well.

That the Servants will have many different ways of attacking you, corrupting you, and so forth. They are quite powerful. However, as the game goes on, they will lose many of their abilities to corrupt.

While not explicitly saying he is Red Death, I think that is more likely than just getting bad scan results.

[The Jackal]

Well, jeez.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

While my thinking leans toward yours, but there's just a lot of stuff that makes no sense about EF, too. If he's a seer, why did he jump in and reveal just one scan and leave? Why did he call Bug a convert? That doesn't seem to be info he would get as a seer. What role does he claim to be if not the seer? There does not seem to be a role corresponding to his that I can see.

Although, should be noted, Abe said it's possible we have Lightbringer roles that are not listed.

He never said he was a seer, Bug said that. I've been holding off, but here is my thinking. EF is the Detective and watched Bug. He saw he didn't do a scan, possibly even kill DZ.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Although, should be noted, Abe said it's possible we have Lightbringer roles that are not listed.

I thought it said that was not possible?

[Commo_Soldier]

Also, thinking of it now, it helps Bug to wait until later as Narc was typically gone and couldn't come out. They kill him and another one or two tonight and the village despite starting off good is now in somewhat bad shape.

[Autumn]

Oh no, yo'ure right Chief, there could be other roles it says. I was thinking it said the opposite somehow.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

Also, thinking of it now, it helps Bug to wait until later as Narc was typically gone and couldn't come out. They kill him and another one or two tonight and the village despite starting off good is now in somewhat bad shape.

Damn, that would be cold, but you're right, it would make sense to do that.

[Narcizo]

Couple of other things. If the reason I got scanned was because of a bad voting record then if Eagle is lying my record is actually pretty good, thankyouverymuch. I prefer to think that I've carried a straight villager voting record. Sorry guys.

And, erm, something else. Sorry, watching QI at the moment.

Oh yeah. In terms of cost-benefit I think voting Bug is the right move. If Bug is telling the truth then I'm bad and Eagle probably is as well. You will have about 10:1 - if you can't bring that home then we deserve to lose. "If" Bug is bad then we're going to be down the seer and the bodyguard with two wolves left. Not quite so clear cut.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

He never said he was a seer, Bug said that. I've been holding off, but here is my thinking. EF is the Detective and watched Bug. He saw he didn't do a scan, possibly even kill DZ.

But why would he call hima convert then? I thought about the Detective but that doesn't fit in my mind with what EF said. All EF said was the Bug is a convert.

That sounds more to me like some unnamed role that simply states if a player has been corrupted or not. Like a corruption seer. Presumeably even a true wolf would not show as corrupted, because he is evil from the start. Only corrupted villagers would show as corrupted or converted or whatever.

At least if I was devising a role like this, that's the way I would do it. Consider we have the BG and the Abjurer roles. The BG protects from physical attack, the Abjurer protected from corruption/conversion. Two roles doing similar things but with different aspects of the game. I could easily see Abe including an unnamed corruption seer in this game, with how large it is.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

Also, thinking of it now, it helps Bug to wait until later as Narc was typically gone and couldn't come out. They kill him and another one or two tonight and the village despite starting off good is now in somewhat bad shape.

Hate to bring up RL stuff, but it's possible Bug didn't have a choice. Sounds like he's gone to Disneyland for the day. Maybe he just hoped Narc was gone for the day, since Narc hadn't posted in quite a while.

[Autumn]

So with no counter reveal coming out, we have to decide if Narc is a corrupted sherriff caught by our uncorrupted seer, or if he's a real sherrif guessed at or figured out by a corrupt Bug. I would be surprised if there isn't a role or item in game that allows people to find out roles, or at least specific roles. But we don't know of one. That makes me lean in favor of continuing to vote Narc, but it's not much of a lean given all the other circumstantial evidence.

I'm going to hope that EF will show up and clear things up eventually.

[Narcizo]

Oh I've thought about it but I think I'll

Vote Bug

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Couple of other things. If the reason I got scanned was because of a bad voting record then if Eagle is lying my record is actually pretty good, thankyouverymuch. I prefer to think that I've carried a straight villager voting record. Sorry guys.

And, erm, something else. Sorry, watching QI at the moment.

Oh yeah. In terms of cost-benefit I think voting Bug is the right move. If Bug is telling the truth then I'm bad and Eagle probably is as well. You will have about 10:1 - if you can't bring that home then we deserve to lose. "If" Bug is bad then we're going to be down the seer and the bodyguard with two wolves left. Not quite so clear cut.

No one really knows why he picked you seemed kind of random when he never said anything about you. But I believe I mentioned your voting record more than EF.

As for QI, that made me laugh as I just played QI/QI on wordfeud with the Q on a DL.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

But why would he call hima convert then? I thought about the Detective but that doesn't fit in my mind with what EF said. All EF said was the Bug is a convert.

That sounds more to me like some unnamed role that simply states if a player has been corrupted or not. Like a corruption seer. Presumeably even a true wolf would not show as corrupted, because he is evil from the start. Only corrupted villagers would show as corrupted or converted or whatever.

At least if I was devising a role like this, that's the way I would do it. Consider we have the BG and the Abjurer roles. The BG protects from physical attack, the Abjurer protected from corruption/conversion. Two roles doing similar things but with different aspects of the game. I could easily see Abe including an unnamed corruption seer in this game, with how large it is.

That could be something Abe added, true, he did say he tweaked things because of the size. But I kind of doubt that would be unlisted. With EF in the hotseat today, coming out with an unrecorded role is not going to sway me much.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

But why would he call hima convert then? I thought about the Detective but that doesn't fit in my mind with what EF said. All EF said was the Bug is a convert.

That sounds more to me like some unnamed role that simply states if a player has been corrupted or not. Like a corruption seer. Presumeably even a true wolf would not show as corrupted, because he is evil from the start. Only corrupted villagers would show as corrupted or converted or whatever.

At least if I was devising a role like this, that's the way I would do it. Consider we have the BG and the Abjurer roles. The BG protects from physical attack, the Abjurer protected from corruption/conversion. Two roles doing similar things but with different aspects of the game. I could easily see Abe including an unnamed corruption seer in this game, with how large it is.

I think he said convert because he believed Bug was the Seer. Even the Seer I don't think knows if anyone is a convert. But if he observes Bug killing DZ or not scanning when he said he'd wait to release his scan result that leads to wolf. Which would have to be convert if he was a seer to start. I also thought other roles were only given to those exercised.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by mckerney

I agree he could try and buy himself and extra kill by telling us Narc was bad when if he were a Lightbringer, I really don't think he'd sell out Narc as a wolf to gain trust if he'd been corrupted.

Nope, I doubt he sells out a wolf - just gives us a villager instead and goes gracefully to his fate the following day.

But even before Narc came out with his own reveal, I wasn't looking at this as EF vs Narc, with Bug being home free. I want to vote where I think I've got the best chance of getting a wolf. Minimizing risk of whacking the seer obviously is important, but if I'm pretty sure Bug is the bad guy in this triangle I'm voting him.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Hate to bring up RL stuff, but it's possible Bug didn't have a choice. Sounds like he's gone to Disneyland for the day. Maybe he just hoped Narc was gone for the day, since Narc hadn't posted in quite a while.

He had a choice to bring it up as soon as the day started or earlier, but he decided not to and brought it up when Narc normally is no longer here. As for the disneyland that sucks, but I think we have heard plenty from him to know most of the story at least compared to NTN earlier.

[Commo_Soldier]

Dola, bug is still here, so he can still defend.

[The Jackal]

This is a damn tough decision.

unvote narc
vote ef

[The Jackal]

Narcizo is one of a group of people who would have been a decent early conversion target. Unfortunately both his and bug's reveal mesh with me, but obviously one of them is lying about something.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Autumn

So with no counter reveal coming out, we have to decide if Narc is a corrupted sherriff caught by our uncorrupted seer, or if he's a real sherrif guessed at or figured out by a corrupt Bug. I would be surprised if there isn't a role or item in game that allows people to find out roles, or at least specific roles. But we don't know of one. That makes me lean in favor of continuing to vote Narc, but it's not much of a lean given all the other circumstantial evidence.

I'm going to hope that EF will show up and clear things up eventually.

Another reason for bug to wait, the prime two suspects CR and EF had already outed themselves as roles why name one of them and taking a shot is a good idea.

[The Jackal]

We should have at least one wolf in all of this, optimistic way of looking at it? A lot of where my vote ends up will depend on what EF has to say. Unfortunately I'm going out to dinner and then to see Contagion which won't end until the deadline, so my vote is going to be stuck somewhere before I leave in a couple hours.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

In order to win, the Lightbringers must kill every Servant of the Red Death. The Servants must have more than the # of Lightbringers (instead of the usual 1:1 ratio), and they must kill or convert every Exorcist and Minister as well. If, at the end of the game, there is one Servant and one Lightbringer left, a special rule will occur to see who wins based on roles. Lightbringers are no chumps.

There are many items in this game, and every player will begin with a random item, even Servants. The only person who brings items into the game, however, is the Scientist. Each night, once per item, you may pass an item to a person of your choice, just pm me and let me know. This is processed when Night Actions are processed, but it does not count as a Night Action. Items are passed as the last thing during the evening. Items on a dead person are collected by the Servants.

Some items are obvious – Charms of Protection Against Shapeshifters or Colt Peacemaker. Other items have unknown or more nefarious uses, and you may not immediately know what they all do. There might even be red herrings

Not all Servants may be able to pm each other. There are no hidden Lightbringer roles beyond the Exorcized. There may be more than one of each role. When they are killed, Servants of the Red Death will have both their title and their role and abilities posted in the thread. You are experienced enough that you know what a creature is and all about it.

That is what I thought, so EF has to have one of the roles, I think Detective is a possiblity.

[Autumn]

I'm just leaving my vote until we hear from EF. Narc being bad, and scanned by the seer, seems the simplest of the many possibilities at the moment.

[hoopsguy]

It isn't that tough, unless you feel like you need to make it now.

My worry, that is growing throughout the day, is that EF isn't back in time before our standard WW "Friday Night Exodus" messes up our chances to collectively make a good decision. So really rooting for him to get back here as soon as possible so we can start digging into these stories.

I don't think there is all that much digging to do on Narc - he has said who he guarded. I'm just going to try and match his decisions with when the reveals actually happened ... if, for example, Bug revealed yesterday after Narc had left for the day then there wouldn't me much reason to guard him, right? But the real decision comes down to Bug vs EF, and with EF saying "Convert" it probably just comes down to yes/no on believing EF.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

Not all of these roles will be in the game. It's possible there could be Lightbringer roles not listed above as well.

Oh, this is what i read. Abe? lol

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Couple of other things. If the reason I got scanned was because of a bad voting record then if Eagle is lying my record is actually pretty good, thankyouverymuch. I prefer to think that I've carried a straight villager voting record. Sorry guys.

And, erm, something else. Sorry, watching QI at the moment.

Oh yeah. In terms of cost-benefit I think voting Bug is the right move. If Bug is telling the truth then I'm bad and Eagle probably is as well. You will have about 10:1 - if you can't bring that home then we deserve to lose. "If" Bug is bad then we're going to be down the seer and the bodyguard with two wolves left. Not quite so clear cut.

You are bad. Maybe originally riled but serving evip

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

It isn't that tough, unless you feel like you need to make it now.

My worry, that is growing throughout the day, is that EF isn't back in time before our standard WW "Friday Night Exodus" messes up our chances to collectively make a good decision. So really rooting for him to get back here as soon as possible so we can start digging into these stories.

I don't think there is all that much digging to do on Narc - he has said who he guarded. I'm just going to try and match his decisions with when the reveals actually happened ... if, for example, Bug revealed yesterday after Narc had left for the day then there wouldn't me much reason to guard him, right? But the real decision comes down to Bug vs EF, and with EF saying "Convert" it probably just comes down to yes/no on believing EF.

The problem with this is Narc is back after lynching and before night actions. So he can see what happened during the day.

As for EF, why can't he be the detective? That could easily tell him about Bug.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

I think he said convert because he believed Bug was the Seer. Even the Seer I don't think knows if anyone is a convert. But if he observes Bug killing DZ or not scanning when he said he'd wait to release his scan result that leads to wolf. Which would have to be convert if he was a seer to start. I also thought other roles were only given to those exercised.

That's the thing, though. If he's killing someone or lying, that doesn't mean he's a convert. Why would EF stick to the seer belief having seen what you have proposed? He wouldn't assume Bug was a converted seer, he would assume Bug is a wolf of some sort. And since the seer did not counter Bug, the seer has been corrupted or silenced somehow. That could be a converted Bug or that could be another player (and now fellow wolf of Bug) entirely.

Could EF as Detective conclude Bug is likely a convert? Sure. Would he know for sure? Not according to what we know the Detective can do. EF would not come back "Bug is a convert". He would have said "Bug is a wolf" and he might add, "I'm guessing a converted player".

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

The problem with this is Narc is back after lynching and before night actions. So he can see what happened during the day.

As for EF, why can't he be the detective? That could easily tell him about Bug.

Detective – Once per night, you can Observe Someone. This will tell you what that person has done for the evening. For example, you would learn that an Adept cast a spell, but not what the results were. If you observe another spellcaster, you would not be able to tell the difference between an Adept and them. Observing can be dangerous.

To me that doesn't sound like someone who is able to scan to see if someone has been converted.

[mckerney]

Unvote Narcizo
Vote Eagle Fan

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

That's the thing, though. If he's killing someone or lying, that doesn't mean he's a convert. Why would EF stick to the seer belief having seen what you have proposed? He wouldn't assume Bug was a converted seer, he would assume Bug is a wolf of some sort. And since the seer did not counter Bug, the seer has been corrupted or silenced somehow. That could be a converted Bug or that could be another player (and now fellow wolf of Bug) entirely.

Could EF as Detective conclude Bug is likely a convert? Sure. Would he know for sure? Not according to what we know the Detective can do. EF would not come back "Bug is a convert". He would have said "Bug is a wolf" and he might add, "I'm guessing a converted player".

I think he just said convert because everyone believes Bug is the Seer. That is the only reason I think he said it. I really think anyone but Bug tonight is a mistake. People are reading too much into the convert line, he was just saying bug is bad.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

The problem with this is Narc is back after lynching and before night actions. So he can see what happened during the day.

As for EF, why can't he be the detective? That could easily tell him about Bug.

It tells him Bug is a wolf. It doesn't tell him Bug is a convert.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by mckerney

Detective – Once per night, you can Observe Someone. This will tell you what that person has done for the evening. For example, you would learn that an Adept cast a spell, but not what the results were. If you observe another spellcaster, you would not be able to tell the difference between an Adept and them. Observing can be dangerous.

To me that doesn't sound like someone who is able to scan to see if someone has been converted.

He is not scanning anyone. He follows Bug, he can either see if bug a) does magic or b) kills someone. If he sees no magic and bug comes out as he did saying he will release his result later that does not bode well. If he sees a killing, case closed. Either way he can tell if bug is lying about his actions.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Oh, this is what i read. Abe? lol

[MrBug708]

On phone only

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

He is not scanning anyone. He follows Bug, he can either see if bug a) does magic or b) kills someone. If he sees no magic and bug comes out as he did saying he will release his result later that does not bode well. If he sees a killing, case closed. Either way he can tell if bug is lying about his actions.

He didn't say he saw Bug do anything though.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

It tells him Bug is a wolf. It doesn't tell him Bug is a convert.

As I stated, I think we are looking to much into the covert wording. Convert/wolf almost the same thing. If he had said wolf you'd say how do you know are you the seer now? Really I think it is just reading too much into one word when the bottom line is bug has two people saying he is bad.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Not much time here as I am heading out, only a couple minutes to check in but very good news. I found a convert last night. Sorry fo being unavailable for much of the game but glad that I finally can contribute.

This explanation doesn't fit with the role of detective.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by mckerney

He didn't say he saw Bug do anything though.

That is the problem, he didn't say anything really other than bug is bad and that is who he is voting for. I didn't want to say what I thought he could be because I didn't want to give him ideas. I felt I had to though as I think it is a HUGE mistake to lynch him for that word when Bug has been very skeptical to others. I'm just laying it out there that he can find out bug is bad with a non hidden role that no one else has claimed.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by mckerney

This explanation doesn't fit with the role of detective.

How does it not?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

As I stated, I think we are looking to much into the covert wording. Convert/wolf almost the same thing. If he had said wolf you'd say how do you know are you the seer now? Really I think it is just reading too much into one word when the bottom line is bug has two people saying he is bad.

I understand you think that. I don't believe EF makes the leap. He goes with this simplest explanation (wolf). He wouldn't make a further extrapolation (convert) that wasn't clear. He might think it, or even suggest it as a possibility. But I guarantee you, if EF sees Bug doing wolfish stuff, he won't call him a convert, he will call him a wolf.

The fact he went all the way further to convert rather than stopping at wolf says something about how he knows. We're waiting for him to return and tell us what that is.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

As I stated, I think we are looking to much into the covert wording. Convert/wolf almost the same thing. If he had said wolf you'd say how do you know are you the seer now? Really I think it is just reading too much into one word when the bottom line is bug has two people saying he is bad.

I don't think it is reading too much into it. If I'm the detective and I see MrBug perform a wolf action at night there's no way I'm describing it as "found a convert last night." "Found a convert," is a huge assumption, if he saw MrBug perform a wolf night action how could he determine if he was an original wolf or a convert?

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I understand you think that. I don't believe EF makes the leap. He goes with this simplest explanation (wolf). He wouldn't make a further extrapolation (convert) that wasn't clear. He might think it, or even suggest it as a possibility. But I guarantee you, if EF sees Bug doing wolfish stuff, he won't call him a convert, he will call him a wolf.

The fact he went all the way further to convert rather than stopping at wolf says something about how he knows. We're waiting for him to return and tell us what that is.

That is fine, but are we really going to possibly lynch him for that one word. I think it is a huge mistake. We killed Annie in Evil Dead because of one similar little thing.