The Trump Presidency – 2016

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by stevew

I assume they’ll do the absolute minimum relief package(if any) that keeps the Senate in GOP control. And then starve the economy so that they can attempt to destroy the Biden presidency and regain the house.

That's my guess. I also think they'll just keep pumping trillions into corporate ETFs and such to keep the market afloat till November. They can't keep propping it up forever.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I realize that by November, we'll be 6 crises past where we are now so none of this will matter.

But for a President so image obsessed, it is kind of crazy that one of the things that's really hurting him is that fact that he had no idea how people hold books, so that Bible video looks so stupid.

Like, if he had just spent any time in his life reading books, he would have learned how to hold them just through repetition.

His bonfire of the vanities interview is another classic.

YouTube

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Kodos

No, Bunker Boy is perfect because it highlights Trump's cowardly nature and he will be driven insane because he doesn't want people to know that he is in fact a total coward.

I say we start a Go Fund Me to raise money to give to the first reporter at a press conference who asks "Is it true when you were in the bunker you wet your pants?"

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I say we start a Go Fund Me to raise money to give to the first reporter at a press conference who asks "Is it true when you were in the bunker you wet your pants?"

He was inspecting the absorption capabilities of said pants.

[JPhillips]

Trick question. He wears a diaper.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I say we start a Go Fund Me to raise money to give to the first reporter at a press conference who asks "Is it true when you were in the bunker you wet your pants?"

I would happily donate to this cause

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Regarding my comment on "good chance that economy will be noticeably rebounding as we get closer to Nov", the stock market is a leading indicator of the economy.

It's not the only one, may not be the most important one, but it is one. However, arguably it is in an "irrational exuberance" state right now.

With that said, I don't think you can toss away stock market progress as a "valid" leading indicator during these times. I would assume (and hope) the stock market analysts and Fund managers are doing their due diligence in talking with CEOs, talking with companies' supply chain folks, reading the Fed etc. in addition to watching unemployment, consumer confidence, risk of China, risk of second wave etc.

As time passes, the stock market has become less of an indicator of the economy because 10% of Americans own 80% of it and our US economy is growing more dependent on service based industries and large contractors (military, infrastructure, tech, real estate, etc.) that is slower to “trickle down“ to the middle class than manufacturing/labor was. I feel like we are probably a similar age and learned the same rules of the market, but things are changing significantly with wealth disparity over the past 20-years.

[Atocep]

What the hell happened to Rudy? Look at this interview from '07 on CSPAN when he was running for President and compare it to the interview today with Piers Morgan. He was actually articulate, intelligent and well spoken (and most notably not orange).

Former Mayor Giuliani Interview | C-SPAN.org

Compared to:

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

We should open the doors and let anyone from Hong Kong immigrate.

We won't. But we should.

Not the US but seems that UK is doing the right thing (and it does belong in their court). GB has 66M pop. so the 2.9M is about a 4.4% increase in their population.

U.K. PM tells China that Britain will admit 3 Million from Hong Kong

Johnson repeated Britain's pledge to give British National Overseas passport-holders in Hong Kong a path to British citizenship - allowing them to settle in the United Kingdom.

There are about 350,000 holders of BNO passports in Hong Kong and another 2.5 million are eligible for them, Johnson said.

The newspaper said that Britain's National Security Council agreed on Tuesday to “rebalance” Britain’s relationship with China.

Britain on Tuesday warned Beijing to step back from the brink over the national security law in Hong Kong, saying it risked destroying one of the jewels of Asia's economy while ruining the reputation of China.

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by Atocep

What the hell happened to Rudy? Look at this interview from '07 on CSPAN when he was running for President and compare it to the interview today with Piers Morgan. He was actually articulate, intelligent and well spoken (and most notably not orange).

Former Mayor Giuliani Interview | C-SPAN.org

Compared to:

Piers Morgan is a wind-up merchant and pure gutter press, and looks like Guiliani fell for it. He was right in that he didn’t swear, I think they misheard ‘sucked up’

However, I agree that Guiliani has significantly deteriorated mentally, but there are better examples than a Piers Morgan interview. Basically he got old.

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by Atocep

What the hell happened to Rudy?

If you really want to know, it's all in this Rolling Stone article:

Rudy Giuliani: What Happened to America's Mayor? - Rolling Stone

There's a whole litany of pulpy stuff in there to chew on...but if I cobble my poor recollection together and read between the lines, he completely alienated all of his original friends & family, including his children, got a new money-motivated 'trophy' wife that nobody else actually liked, she eventually decided she didn't like him either, divorced him and implied he couldn't get a boner anymore, he was constantly making poor financial decisions along the way, and somewhere in there he decided to drink all day.

[QuikSand]

it happens to the best of us

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Sincere question: Based on what?

My thoughts are that we are only doing 'this well' because we just put $3.2-trillion into the economy AND a lot of folks/businesses have not paid their first sets of quarterly taxes in 2020 (more income available to spend now, less later/less collected by governments).

We have close to 20% unemployment, very low consumer confidence, lots of questions about imports/exports (long term supply chain), and the continued unease about the pandemic. I don't see a reason to believe the economy is going to noticeably rebound for quite some time. I feel reallly strongly that we are looking more at years than months before we get back to a decent level of unemployment and consumer confidence.

FWIW a data point that the economy is reviving. Obviously one month does not make trend and there are definitely going to be bumps in the road but it is good news.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/05/econo...rus/index.html

The US unemployment rate surprisingly fell to 13.3% in May, as the economy gained 2.5 million jobs.

The labor market rebounded from April's drastic losses, when a revised 20.7 million jobs vanished. The unemployment rate last month soared to 14.7% as businesses shut during the coronavirus lockdown.

Economists expected the unemployment rate to be even worse in May, rising to nearly 20%. But the gradual reopening of the economy actually added new jobs rather than eliminating further positions.

"These improvements in the labor market reflected a limited resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed in March and April due to the coronavirus pandemic and efforts to contain it," said William W. Beach, commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in a statement.

[sterlingice]

Small glimmer of hope. We're still, what, a net 18M jobs down? I'd love to see more signs of progress and hope it's not just a dead cat bounce.

SI

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Small glimmer of hope. We're still, what, a net 18M jobs down? I'd love to see more signs of progress and hope it's not just a dead cat bounce.

SI

Another article I read yesterday said AA had record gains because their Jul projections were better than expectations so travel is coming back some.
What I know of college news (with the couple data points I have), they do plan to reopen in the Fall. And of course, Disney is reopening.

In my area, I have seen more people out and dining outdoors. We are ordering pick-up now (and I'm not insisting on microwaving the food first!).

So it is getting better for sure (until if/when there is a second wave).

[stevew]

I’m more than a little worried about Obama’s safety right now. I wouldn’t put anything past this administration. Especially when everything is crumbling and it’s obvious Trump has a vendetta.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

it happens to the best of us

And also Rudy

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by stevew

I’m more than a little worried about Obama’s safety right now. I wouldn’t put anything past this administration. Especially when everything is crumbling and it’s obvious Trump has a vendetta.

And make him a martyr?

SI

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Edward64

FWIW a data point that the economy is reviving. Obviously one month does not make trend and there are definitely going to be bumps in the road but it is good news.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/05/econo...rus/index.html

That will be great if it is the ceiling on unemployment levels and it is way better than the 20% that had been floated, but many businesses are staying afloat with the aid PPP and EIDL loans that require them to retain employees. As mentioned, pumping trillions of dollars into the economy is a great band-aid and I am fine with it (I'm also fine with higher taxes for better services).

For the past three months the government has been supplementing labor (with these PPP and EIDL loans) and funding its consumption with the $1200 stimulus checks and extra $600/week for unemployed that earn under $96,000/yr (smartly targeted on folks that will spend it quickly rather than save/invest it).

Keep an eye on August and September. Corporate taxes are typically due quarterly, but first two quarters were suspended until July 15th. I think a lot of business are not going to have the liquid assets to pay their taxes and will need to cut costs/payroll or go out of business. Even if they can pay, that money is going to go back into state and federal government (both of which have decreased revenue from the unemployment and taxes not being collected), where some if may recirculate into the economy (paying gov't contracts, state/fed insured medical costs, etc.), but much of it will just go into paying for costs and maintenance already incurred. Add that to the $600/wk unemployment benefit expiring on July 31st, and I think those months will have a pretty noticeable spike in unemployment.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by stevew

I’m more than a little worried about Obama’s safety right now. I wouldn’t put anything past this administration. Especially when everything is crumbling and it’s obvious Trump has a vendetta.

I was more worried after he was inaugurated, but I fully believe that fuckwad in chief is looking for anything he can do. Truthfully, that's no different from anything else in the last 3 years.

[PilotMan]

I have noticed an uptick in the amount of "Q" shared information that is crossing my FB feed from people who by all accounts are smart and well educated former acquaintances and friends. I won't engage them, because frankly, I'm tired. I'm totally worn out and have my own struggles. I just can't figure out how that stuff makes them feel like they now have "the big picture". I don't know how to have any respect for them either. Like none. Like, you're not even worth being in my orbit, because we have nothing in common that would ever bring us together.

That's hard. Just like my thoughts this week on whether or not hoping that trump were dead makes me a bad person. I'm not one to go around and wish that on random people, or anyone. So the fact that I'm willing to simply jettison people who 'should' be in my orbit, and just stop caring about them as people brings me to a thoughtful place on how much I should care, and how much I should care about things that I can actually control, or that matter. I'm in my own head a lot these days and it's a struggle.

[JPhillips]

It's so depressing that 20k cases a day, 1k deaths a day, and 13% unemployment is cause for victory laps and a sense that everything is fine now.

[GrantDawg]

You do realize that number is almost completely furloughed workers returning to work? We actually lost about half-million jobs in May.

[JPhillips]

I’ve worked for GOP candidates since I was 17, but this year it must be Country First. Proud to be joining ⁦@RVAT2020⁩ — Republican Voters Against Trump as a strategic advisor.

Here’s a TV spot we just whipped up. Releasing today. See you in MI, AZ, FL, PA, NC and more. pic.twitter.com/LPOnAm5Hsg

— Mike Murphy (@murphymike) June 5, 2020

I think these and the ads from Project Lincoln are really important. Partisans need permission to switch sides and both of these groups are working with that goal in mind. Any 2016 GOP voters that stay home or switch sides are crippling for Trump, who needs to expand his voter base.

[ISiddiqui]

Wow.. that was quite the ad. The Lincoln Project as well has been hard hitting.

Always count on Republicans for the best attack ads I guess...

[PilotMan]

I love the propaganda that is the Official White House daily blast:

Great American comeback: 2.5 million jobs in May!


Together, President Trump and American workers built the greatest economy on Earth. Now, as we safely reopen from Coronavirus, we are rebuilding stronger than ever!

“Experts” predicted that America would lose 7.5 million jobs last month. Instead, our country added 2.5 million—10 million more than expected.

🇺🇸 President Trump: We’re starting an incredible period of growth!

May’s 2.5 million jobs are the most new jobs ever recorded in a single month.

Across our country, America is coming back. Nearly three-quarters of U.S. small businesses are now open, up from the pandemic low of just 52 percent in April.

American workers helped slow the spread of Coronavirus by social distancing and following the guidelines of their local health officials. Many paid a price by losing their jobs to keep the rest of us safe. As we reopen America, they deserve this incredible news.

All told, last month our economy added:

• 1.2 MILLION leisure & hospitality jobs
• 464,000 construction jobs
• 424,000 education & healthcare jobs
• 368,000 retail jobs
• 225,000 manufacturing jobs

“We had the greatest economy in the history of the world. And that strength let us get through this horrible pandemic,” President Trump said.

“We’re going to be back there. I think we’re going to actually be back higher next year than ever before. And the only thing that can stop us is bad policy.”

WATCH: A record-breaking job surge across American industries!

READ: Economy trounces expectations by 10 million jobs

[JPhillips]

I like the new math where 2.5 million is 10 million more than 0.

[QuikSand]

Not that facts matter or anything, but after the parade is over, we're going to correctly count the millions of workers accidentally left off the unemployment rolls for this data point, and it will look a whole lot less impressive.

But yes, toot your horns, by all means. That is indeed how the game is played.

[JPhillips]

JFC

There is no bottom at Fox News pic.twitter.com/NDn1N8bZuI

— Akhil Vohra (@asv141) June 5, 2020

[tarcone]

So, killing a black dude bumps the S&P? White dudes for the win.

[kingfc22]

The absurdity just knows no bounds

[cuervo72]

That has to be fake.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

That has to be fake.

There's video.

[kingfc22]

http://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1269028557365211136

[albionmoonlight]

In 2014 43% of Americans said that the killings in Ferguson and NYC were "signs of a broader problem" and 51% said they were "isolated incidents" in a Post-ABC poll

Today 74% say George Floyd's killing was a sign of a broader problem in a ABC-Ipsos poll

For as much as Trump famously denies reality, his existence has made it easier for others to see the truth. I don't think that that makes his Presidency worth it. But it is a bit of a silver lining.

[Butter]

Sooo.... anyone following this "Lady G" story?

[JPhillips]

Dexter Filkins: In a meeting in the Oval Office, Trump expressed a desire to quell the protests by sending forces...into American cities. Milley resisted. “They got into a shouting match,” the senior military official told me. Trump finally backed down. https://t.co/4w2fsYhabG

— Michael Luo (@michaelluo) June 6, 2020

This would help explain all of the letters and statements from military leaders a couple of days ago.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Butter

Sooo.... anyone following this "Lady G" story?

It's been a rumor for a long time that Graham is gay, but nothing had come of it so far that I chalked it up to wishful thinking. Has only the one escort spoke up so far? Hard to take it too seriously if no one else comes forward, and no serious network/journalist is researching it.

Living in SC though and being a gay man, I would love, love, LOVE that this be the thing that finally causes him to disappear from politics. His opponent in the election has basically pulled even with him in some of the latest polls so its certainly possible.

[larrymcg421]

There are rumors that his transformation from vocal Trump critic to key Trump ally had something to do with dirt that Trump had on him about his sexual orientation.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

There are rumors that his transformation from vocal Trump critic to key Trump ally had something to do with dirt that Trump had on him about his sexual orientation.

No one (that I'm aware of) has ever found any truth to this rumor, and they have had a long time to look. I could see the guy that ran the Enquirer and was Trump's friend having the dirt on Graham though and sharing it with Trump. Something pretty clearly got him to change from his 2016 hostility to Trump to ass-kisser. Or he's just weak and bends whatever way the winds blow.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

There's video.

Originally Posted by kingfc22

http://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1269028557365211136

That's...wow.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

No one (that I'm aware of) has ever found any truth to this rumor, and they have had a long time to look. I could see the guy that ran the Enquirer and was Trump's friend having the dirt on Graham though and sharing it with Trump. Something pretty clearly got him to change from his 2016 hostility to Trump to ass-kisser. Or he's just weak and bends whatever way the winds blow.

The guy claims he has three other male escorts willing to back him up. Please, please, please let them have proof.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

The guy claims he has three other male escorts willing to back him up. Please, please, please let them have proof.

Yeah just one guy is not going to be enough to convince me.

[ISiddiqui]

Womp womp:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...F8rYR4F5UL-Ous

When the U.S. government’s official jobs report for May came out on Friday, it included a note at the bottom saying there had been a major “error” indicating that the unemployment rate likely should be higher than the widely reported 13.3 percent rate.

The special note said that if this “misclassification error” had not occurred, the “overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported,” meaning the unemployment rate would be about 16.3 percent for May, but that would still be an improvement from an unemployment rate of more than 19 percent for April, applying the same standards.

Still better than 19%, but wow, what an error.

[sterlingice]

Totally honest error, I'm sure

Si

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Totally honest error, I'm sure

Si

They've been doing it since April.

This jobs report was so good, that people started calls to look into manipulation.

Then they came out ahead of it and announced the "mistake."

It's lies all the way down.

[PilotMan]

The April unemployment was supposed to be closer to 20%, with a bounce down to 16.6% for May.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Totally honest error, I'm sure

Si

Now imagine a time when an "error" like this wold have gone unreported because it was easier to suppress information. This is an administration straight out of a McCarthy era.

[Brian Swartz]

People are overthinking the Graham thing. The party embraced Trump, and he's a politician doing what almost all politicians do - surviving. It's virtually guaranteed to be no more complicated than that. The thing is, as much as we complain when politicians don't do what their constituents want, I'm not sure we have a lot of room to talk collectively.

[JPhillips]

I think a much better explanation for Graham is that he's a snippy little asshole who for a few years modified his behavior to try to impress John McCain. Look at his behavior in the House during the Clinton years.