The Stock Market thread

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Tariffs are why we don't have an increase in EVs. The literal thing you're defending.

Tariffs are the reason why we don't have cheap Chinese EVs. The Infrastructure bill should have increased domestic EV build/adoption (but I am on record in saying I didn't think Mayor Pete did a great job).

I'm arguing against dependence on China. I am arguing for increased self/allied-reliance in strategic areas of which EV/infrastructure is one aspect.

China is 20% of their revenue and a bigger share of their profits. The CEO of Apple just announced investing more in China. They're moving some manufacturing to India and Brazil (I guess they don't count in the game geopolitics for some reason) but that's mainly for costs as China shifts to a more consumer led economy.

My statement was simply ...

Apple is moving away from China (delinking). They are betting on India and that's a smart move.

See CNBC article below ...

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/20/appl...expansion.html

For years, Tim Cook has been bullish on India. Now, he’s betting big on the South Asian giant as Apple shifts its focus away from China and expands its footprint in India.

Still, analysts told CNBC the iPhone-maker’s dependency on China will remain for years to come.

There’s potential for India to “become the next China” for Apple production, but it could take as long as a decade before it happens, said Martin Yang, senior analyst of emerging technologies at Oppenheimer & Co.

Apple’s efforts to move its assembly of products from China became more urgent in the last five years as U.S.-China trade tensions intensified, and supply chain disruptions caused by Beijing’s zero-Covid policy unraveled.

And again, there is no "delinking" in a global economy. Apple and other American companies are owned by people from throughout the world. China has ownership stakes in all these companies and there is no way to prevent that.

There is no delinking from the global economy, true. There is delinking from China, it won't be 100% or even near 100%, but the trend is to reduce investments in China. Maybe your definition of delinking is different from mine?

There are multitudes of articles that report this. Google on "are us companies pulling out of china".

Do you know what the word isolationist means? I'm literally calling for the opposite here. You're the one who wants to wall off our economy like an old communist country.

I want to reduce our dependency on specifically China and

and be more selective in increasing trade and relationship with other countries, spread our investments around.

Yes, I know what the world "isolationist" means. Your criteria to be involved or only care about the persecution of another group of people "if it directly impacts me" or "if only your tax money pays for it" provides insight how you would engage the world.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

It is actually a little fun to watch these two go at it.

You are welcome!

Always glad to have a discussion on immigration, China and cars.

[RainMaker]

Why do geopolitics not matter with India, Brazil, Mexico or Canada?

And they are betting on India because China is becoming a consumer economy and too expensive to manufacture in. They aren't doing it to "de-link" or whatever you think is happening. Just shifting from a country that makes stuff to a country that buys stuff.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Why do geopolitics not matter with India, Brazil, Mexico or Canada?

They do matter.

We were talking specifically about China because I view China as the #1 threat in the "war". If we want to expand the discussion to those countries, happy to do it. I'm not happy with India either but they are not near as much of a threat as China.

And they are betting on India because China is becoming a consumer economy and too expensive to manufacture in.

This is true but not the whole story. In addition to cheaper to manufacture things, Apple is trying to diversify to reduce risk/dependence in China, and also to increase market share in India (to offset the loss in market share in China).

They aren't doing it to "de-link" or whatever you think is happening. Just shifting from a company that makes stuff to a country that buys stuff.

I don't know what to tell you. Maybe it's the word "de-link", how about "de-coupling"? Same difference to me.

We are talking more than just Apple (e.g. again, think broader). Google on "are us companies pulling out of china" or "is us decoupling from china". Plenty of articles that will educate you some.

Or, tell you what. How about you provide me articles (non Twitter/X/Tiktok) that shows US is NOT in the process of decoupling from China? Then we can talk about facts vs opinions.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

We are talking more than just Apple (e.g. again, think broader). Google on "are us companies pulling out of china" or "is us decoupling from china". Plenty of articles that will educate you some.

Or, tell you what. How about you provide me articles (non Twitter/X/Tiktok) that shows US is NOT in the process of decoupling from China? Then we can talk about facts vs opinions.

I'll take the lack of response as we've concluded this discussion and you've not been able to find any articles to substantiate your argument that the US is NOT decoupling from China.



I'll add that to the list including your contention that Philippines is not a Democracy (e.g. also lack of response to my challenge below)

Originally Posted by Edward64

What a stretch. Shows your ignorance trying to compare Philippines with Russia.

I can quote plenty of legit sources/articles that says Russia is not a democracy. Unfortunately, you can't do the same for your opinion of Philippines. Go ahead, still waiting for your non-tiktok, non-twitter sources.

Let me know if you want to chat more.

[RainMaker]

The problem with these kind of threads is you expect people to Google stuff for you and you don't really know much to begin with. So here it is. Some big time decoupling!

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/10/impo...last-fall.html

But hey, there's some data showing Mexico and Canada gained on China after the tariffs. I wonder if China is just shipping their shit to those countries or having it manufactured there to avoid the tariffs. Just as they do when the shift their manufacturing to Vietnam and other countries (which Chinese companies have been doing anyway for cheaper labor). So you didn't hurt China, just added a tax to Americans to force them to buy inferior products made here.

I don't really know what to even debate regarding tariffs. We're working on like 50+ years of data showing it's a disaster every time it's implemented. So maybe take it up with almost every single economist in the world and tell them they're wrong. I don't even think the politicians implementing believe in them. It's just a way to help eliminate competition for their corporate donors.

And yes, I don't consider the Philippines a democracy. Nor any country that imprisons politicians from opposing parties and doesn't have a free press. I'm sure you can find some dumb NGO that gets funding from the State Department to tell you otherwise, but no free press and no open elections doesn't constitute a democracy in my book.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

The problem with these kind of threads is you expect people to Google stuff for you and you don't really know much to begin with. So here it is. Some big time decoupling!

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/10/impo...last-fall.html

Thanks for the link. I now know where you are coming from.

You provide an article that says US China total imports is rebounding some in 2024 . Much of the stats and graphics in your article is for US worldwide import, not just from China. It's evident how shallow your knowledge is ... you also forgot that exports plays a role.

So, let's stay focused specifically on China as that is what we are talking about and not just focused on 1 year but the trend. A couple charts





Here's one for imports & exports (see first graphic)

The Contentious U.S.-China Trade Relationship | Council on Foreign Relations

We can quibble about accuracy, but you see the trend?

Also, I don't have the historical trends but other examples include restricting Nvidia/TSMC from selling their AI & other type chips.

But hey, there's some data showing Mexico and Canada gained on China after the tariffs. I wonder if China is just shipping their shit to those countries or having it manufactured there to avoid the tariffs. Just as they do when the shift their manufacturing to Vietnam and other countries (which Chinese companies have been doing anyway for cheaper labor). So you didn't hurt China, just added a tax to Americans to force them to buy inferior products made here.

It is true that other countries gain from this decoupling. China will need to import/export/invest elsewhere. US will need to do the same.

So? Your argument is that US is not decoupling. We clearly are.

[Edward64]

I don't really know what to even debate regarding tariffs. We're working on like 50+ years of data showing it's a disaster every time it's implemented. So maybe take it up with almost every single economist in the world and tell them they're wrong. I don't even think the politicians implementing believe in them. It's just a way to help eliminate competition for their corporate donors.

I don't know what you are debating. I'm sticking with the below which kicked it off, and debating geopolitics between US and China, of which de-coupling is one part.

Geopolitics?

Why don't you think it matters?

And yes, I don't consider the Philippines a democracy. Nor any country that imprisons politicians from opposing parties and doesn't have a free press. I'm sure you can find some dumb NGO that gets funding from the State Department to tell you otherwise, but no free press and no open elections doesn't constitute a democracy in my book.

Great, we now know you're talking about your opinion/definitions. Next time we have a debate, I have to remember to start off with "are we talking about your opinion or are we going to talk facts/reality".

Goes without saying, if you have any legit 3rd party corroboration (beyond just your opinion), post it as I requested below.

Originally Posted by Edward64 View Post
What a stretch. Shows your ignorance trying to compare Philippines with Russia.

I can quote plenty of legit sources/articles that says Russia is not a democracy. Unfortunately, you can't do the same for your opinion of Philippines. Go ahead, still waiting for your non-tiktok, non-twitter sources.

[RainMaker]

Definition of what a democracy is is always an opinion. For instance, I don't consider Russia a democracy because they do the same thing(imprison opposition, ban free press). But they consider themselves a democracy and their allies do too. Heck, Bill Clinton called them one back in the 90's when he was helping them rig elections.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Definition of what a democracy is is always an opinion. For instance, I don't consider Russia a democracy because they do the same thing(imprison opposition, ban free press). But they consider themselves a democracy and their allies do too. Heck, Bill Clinton called them one back in the 90's when he was helping them rig elections.

Got it. So, you really can't find any legit 3rd party corroboration (beyond just your opinion) that Philippines is NOT a democracy.

Like I say, next time, let's just start off with the below question. Then I'll know whether I want to spend the time to engage with you.

Great, we now know you're talking about your opinion/definitions. Next time we have a debate, I have to remember to start off with "are we talking about your opinion or are we going to talk facts/reality".

[RainMaker]

And yeah, I stand by that China has no real bearing on my life. It doesn't matter to me if the cheap socks I buy are made in China or Vietnam. It doesn't matter to me if China is prosperous as opposed to India.

I have no beef with them. And I don't think hurting them someone ends up with me living like a king as you imply. That's the zero sum fallacy in economics. Easily disproven by the fact we've seen an enormous drop in world poverty over the past few decades as the wealthiest countries get wealthier.

These are pretty basic economic concepts. Maybe not taught at the high school level but you should have run across it in any Econ 101 course.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Got it. So, you really can't find any legit 3rd party corroboration (beyond just your opinion) that Philippines is NOT a democracy.

Like I say, next time, let's just start off with the below question. Then I'll know whether I want to spend the time to engage with you.

It's literally a subjective question. If I link to the Russian constitution, is that proof that Russia is a democracy?

I don't know why we're talking about the Philippines outside of some tangent to shift attention away from your dumb economic positions.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

And yeah, I stand by that China has no real bearing on my life. It doesn't matter to me if the cheap socks I buy are made in China or Vietnam. It doesn't matter to me if China is prosperous as opposed to India.

I have no beef with them. And I don't think hurting them someone ends up with me living like a king as you imply. That's the zero sum fallacy in economics. Easily disproven by the fact we've seen an enormous drop in world poverty over the past few decades as the wealthiest countries get wealthier.

These are pretty basic economic concepts. Maybe not taught at the high school level but you should have run across it in any Econ 101 course.

Fine, I'll take this as another example of your opinion vs facts/reality.

But my challenge below stands (and this time, hopefully your "evidence" isn't just a single year and includes imports & exports).

Or, tell you what. How about you provide me articles (non Twitter/X/Tiktok) that shows US is NOT in the process of decoupling from China? Then we can talk about facts vs opinions.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Fine, I'll take this as another example of your opinion vs facts/reality.

But my challenge below stands (and this time, hopefully your "evidence" isn't just a single year and includes imports & exports).

I'm done Googling shit for you man. Some big time decoupling going on.

U.S. foreign direct investments in China 2023 | Statista

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

It's literally a subjective question. If I link to the Russian constitution, is that proof that Russia is a democracy?

I disagree with it being subjective. But that's not my question.

I am asking if you have any legit 3rd party articles corroborating your opinion that Philippines is NOT a democracy. If you can't find any, that shows how offbase your thinking is.

I don't know why we're talking about the Philippines outside of some tangent to shift attention away from your dumb economic positions.

Because the Philippines challenge was left unanswered by you in our other discussion. And because we are talking geopolitics, it provides some evidence on how geopolitical knowledgeable you are.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I'm done Googling shit for you man. Some big time decoupling going on.

U.S. foreign direct investments in China 2023 | Statista

Good that you learn exports (and not just imports) is part of the equation.

Stick with US domestic policy and race-baiting. More your wheelhouse.

[RainMaker]

You can just admit you were wrong man. I don't think there's a Webster's dictionary term you're going to find to turn this one around.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

You can just admit you were wrong man. I don't think there's a Webster's dictionary term you're going to find to turn this one around.

Yeah, just like your "it's JDAM because of the acoustics" or "it's a Ninja chopper thingy" or "Hamas isn't hiding in/under civilian buildings" etc.

We live in different worlds. Next time:

... we have a debate, I have to remember to start off with "are we talking about your opinion or are we going to talk facts/reality". And if it's the latter, be prepared with your non-Twitter/TikTok sources

And for the record:

1. No legit 3rd party articles (actually 0) supporting your claim that US is NOT decoupling from China
2. No legit 3rd party articles (actually 0) supporting your claim that Philippines is NOT a democracy

[RainMaker]

FDI data from the Department of Treasury is about the best you can find to prove that point. Arguing that we are decoupling as investments by American companies goes up is a unique way to come to your conclusion.

The other is a subjective question. See if you can find the definition of that word in Websters.

[flere-imsaho]

Someone tell me when it's over and we can go back to the stock market.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

FDI data from the Department of Treasury is about the best you can find to prove that point. Arguing that we are decoupling as investments by American companies goes up is a unique way to come to your conclusion.

Yawn, the challenge still holds. Wake me up when you find provide links.

No legit 3rd party articles (actually 0) supporting your claim that US is NOT decoupling from China

The other is a subjective question. See if you can find the definition of that word in Websters.

There is no doubt definition of Democracy varies (search on "definition democracy wiki"). However, most can agree there are characteristics/attributes and different types/levels of democracy.

Therefore, I am asking you to show me legit 3rd party sources that say Philippines is NOT a democracy. Any article, using whatever criteria of characteristics/attributes, that says Philippines is NOT a democracy. I would very much like to review their logic.

I mean com'on. If you cannot find a non-Twitter/TikTok source that supports your claim about Philippines, what does that tell you about your opinion?

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Someone tell me when it's over and we can go back to the stock market.

Sure. Just my opinion ...

Space stocks seem to be the play right now over AI. Lots of r/wsb interest. They include RKLB and LUNR, think of them as baby and more limited than SpaceX. Both have gone up easily over multiple 100%+ from their lows this year.

I've been monitoring RKLB and LUNR since last year, bought in relatively late in its surge, missed the really big gains, but still made a nice profit. The surge started about mid-year when Fed started decreasing rates.

These space stocks are still very, very risky. But I don't see $3.5T Nvidia increasing 100-200% anytime soon. RKLB and LUNR are much smaller and are momentum & speculative plays. They can literally "go to the moon" or crash and burn.

Not suggesting you buy them now, but if you are even half-way interested, keep them in your watch list and monitor how they are doing.

(@NobodyHere, do NOT bet everything on these stocks e.g. we talked about AVGO several months ago, and it hasn't been stellar since the stock split)

[Kodos]

This new Trump stock market sucks!

[Edward64]

TBF it’s was from Jerome saying something about no rush to decrease rates.

RKLB AND LUNR up 9% and 21% in today’s horrendous downturn. Made money with those two but still very fugly day overall.

[Kodos]

I’m not interested in fairness.

[Edward64]

I'm all for capitalism but below seems predatory to me. There's a chart listing "top rates". I remember when they were in the mid-high 20's and now, they are in mid-30's.

IMO if you are carrying over a balance from month-to-month, pay it off as quickly as you can. Dave Ramsey is not wrong.

Frak 'em.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/22/reta...-card-apr.html

Dozens of the largest U.S. retailers and their bank partners jacked up interest rates on their store-branded cards to record highs in the months before the Federal Reserve began cutting rates, as the companies looked to pad profits during a stretch of sluggish sales.

At least 50 companies — including Big Lots, Gap, Petco, Burlington, Macy’s and TJX Companies — increased the APRs on their credit cards between September 2023 and September 2024, according to a review of data gathered by Bankrate.com that examined the nation’s 100 largest retailers.

Bankrupt home goods chain Big Lots raised its APR by 6 percentage points from 29.99% to 35.99% — the largest increase out of the retailers reviewed by Bankrate. Gap made the second largest increase, a 5 percentage point hike on its Banana Republic, Athleta, Old Navy and namesake cards. Petco came in third with a 4.5 percentage point increase.

[Ksyrup]

I haven't paid a cent of interest in years - outside of a few balance transfer fees if you want to count those, which are either 3 or 4% of the balance, typically. I could not imagine carrying a balance on a card with rates that high. If I were to carry a balance, I'd go out and find a 0% intro rate card, or see if a current card had that kind of deal first. It's easy to see how people get buried in financial problems so quickly, as it's literally compounding one problem on top of another.

[Arles]

Yeah, there are a ton of cards that give you 18-24 months of zero interest (for a small fee) to transfer balances there. No reason to hold 3-4 high interest store cards and pay the 20+%

We still have a Best Buy card, but no balance. We just use it on appliances and the like with their 18 months no interest.

[flere-imsaho]

IMO, there's nothing predatory about jacking up interest rates if you can, especially if the terms & conditions say you can. The market will bear what the market will bear.

What's predatory is targeting people who don't understand how interest works for your store cards and, in parallel, doing everything you can to convince them that carrying a balance is OK.

[Flasch186]

Flere the clerk at the register isn’t educating them on any of that but is instead talking about the free koozie they get for signing up for free


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Ksyrup]

TBF, the clerk at the register doesn't really know much more than the customer, other than having a directive to push the credit app.

[Flasch186]

Truth


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Arles]

I’m going out on a limb and saying the people carrying balances on multiple 20% store cards don’t have advance degrees in finance. Dept store cards are as big a tax on the poor as the lottery and high sales taxes.

[Edward64]

The Trump market bump since election day. Probably add a fraction more to nos below as market has been up since article's Wed, Nov 20.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/22/top-...ction-day.html

The top 10 performing stocks in the S&P 500 index saw returns of 18% or more since Election Day, according to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence, which analyzed returns based on closing prices from Nov. 5 to Nov. 20.

By contrast, the S&P 500 gained about 2% over the same period.

The article list the top gainers which excludes the magnificent 7 other than Tesla. So this run is not big tech dominated.

I get that S&P 500 overall 2% isn't as good as the 18% from the top-10, but it's still pretty good for 20 days worth of work.

RKLB AND LUNR up 9% and 21% in today’s horrendous downturn

FWIW, both are still going up. They are the closest thing to owning SpaceX and pure speculation so far.

Rocketlab has done numerous launches already. Next launch is Sun 10:55pm ET.

Live Stream | Rocket Lab



Edit: successful RKLB launch. Mon futures up +14.3%

[Edward64]

Sweet, sweet month of November.

The Dow ... its gain for November to 7.5%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ... month higher by more than 5% and 6%, respectively. With those gains, the Dow and S&P 500 notched their best months of 2024.
:
The small cap-focused Russell 2000 outperformed in November as investors saw the group benefiting from Trump’s potential tax cuts. The Russell 2000 surged 10.8% this month

November trading largely centered on the postelection rally seen on the back of President-elect Donald Trump’s victory.

FWIW, the good news ...

“The prevailing takeaway from November, to me, is that what was true before the election has remained true after the election,” said Ross Mayfield, investment strategist at Baird Private Wealth Management. “As we head into December, it’s really hard to fade this bull market here, with all the things going right, the election in the rearview and a seasonal tailwind that still has some room to run.”

Feels like a touch of "irrational exuberance" right now, but enjoying it while I can.

[GrantDawg]

I am not going to disagree that the Trump win is exactly what is causing the surge. I have he4ard more than once from people how much better everything is going to be in a couple of months, like all prices are going to magically fall and we are all going to have so much money to spend. People probably are moving lots of money into investments in anticipation. It feels like a good set up for a bubble.

[Edward64]

Nice way to kick off December!

Thank you Joe (and Jerome) for leaving the markets in good shape.

[flere-imsaho]

The surge is because people expect corporate taxes to be cut.

[Edward64]

That's one part of it.

Also, an extension of the TCJA (so personal taxes won't increase); expected less regulations; more pro-business; crypto friendly etc. And inflation does seem to be tamed with a soft landing, no recession in sight.

Markets are still in the honeymoon stage, it'll wear off in 2026. Joe was pretty boring for the markets, Trump is going to be infinitely more unpredictable with tariffs, deportation, tweets, geopolitics etc.

[flere-imsaho]

If we aren't in a recession by January 1, 2028, I'll say one nice thing about Edward.

[Ksyrup]

Did Trump decide to put a hold on his influence over the stock market and economy so Biden could re-ruin it again? /s

[NobodyHere]

Think happy thoughts. Think happy thoughts. Don't look at the S&P500 Index...

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Did Trump decide to put a hold on his influence over the stock market and economy so Biden could re-ruin it again? /s

Thanks for letting us know 7 hours early.

You were prescient ... let me know where you get your spice supply and how much a dime bag cost.

[Ksyrup]

7 hours? We've been on a 10-11 day slide.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

7 hours? We've been on a 10-11 day slide.

That was the Dow. The older stuff, not the newer stuff like Tech, AI, space etc, and Dow was only down like 3.5% as of this morning. The S&P and Nasdaq were doing just fine.

… until Jerome’s speech. And with the just failed CR who knows …

[Ksyrup]

He's baiting Trump to try to fire him.

[Edward64]

Today was a good day.

Didn't quite make up for the past week but a hopeful sign that downward momentum (aka panic) was stopped. And with the CR passing the House tonight smooth sailing next week!

A funny Jerome meme

Blocked

[NobodyHere]

[Edward64]

Late December always seem to suck.

Profit taking, loss harvesting happening ...

[Edward64]

Ended with 3 days of losses but overall, a great 2024 for S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

For the year (as of Dec 30):

The S&P 500 is up 1,137.11 points, or 23.8%.
The Dow is up 4,884.19, or 13%.
The Nasdaq is up 4,475.43 points, or 29.8%.
The Russell 2000 is up 200.70 points, or 9.9%.

Most of my stuff is in Nasdaq and S&P500 ETFs, so pretty happy. Good time to repost below chart.