WW XCV: Land of the Role Reveals GAME OVER

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Cunning is 1/17 - about 6%. Realistically, a 6% chance of dumping the game on Day 1 isn't bad considering the upside. Heck, it's the same chance we have (in a vacuum) of lynching the real seer on Day 1 anyway, and that rarely stops us from doing that.

And we can always just lynch our second seer if they live too long. I have advocated the lynch the seer to prove the data strategy from time to time in the past.

Not just the odds of cunning but you also must calculate the odds of it being a wolf. We either build a CoT which becomes useless and waste time chasing our tail or the real seer has to out himself if he scans the believed (and with a fake seer role out there it could just make the real seer question his own scans).

Believed BG is the way to go day one. We risk losing little and have a huge upside.

[DaddyTorgo]

i hate the fact there's so much for me to catch up on already - i hate you all. will have to try to catch up tomorrow at work

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Is anyone at all advocating giving dubb the full duke power today, besides dubb himself? And, alternatively, why wouldn't the first wolf try to foul our obvious seer play, like hoops has? Plus "oops, my bad" isn't exactly a foolproof strategy for getting past us.

Did I say anyone was advocating giving him the power? I merely said that it would be a wolf play to try to get that power.

[EagleFan]

Now I am going to bed.

One more time:

BG, BG, BG

We should believe a BG today!!!!

Lay the foundation before expanding outward.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Funny how you were in and out of the thread several times after I asked you a question about your post. One which you still haven't freaking answered; yet you respond to my other post within a minute.

Notice that my previous post came right after you posted the hit and run comment. I have spent most of the last hour considering going to bed, and also spent most of it doing things other than hitting F5 in a mostly vacant WW thread. I also took the time to attempt to compose a measured response, instead of just snapping off.

And I did miss the big role by role post when I went back half an hour ago; it's not a type of analysis I particularly favor. I will now drag my tired brain back for one more go around before I finally go to bed, like I should have an hour ago.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Not just the odds of cunning but you also must calculate the odds of it being a wolf. We either build a CoT which becomes useless and waste time chasing our tail or the real seer has to out himself if he scans the believed (and with a fake seer role out there it could just make the real seer question his own scans).

Believed BG is the way to go day one. We risk losing little and have a huge upside.

If it's a wolf the wolf is dead in three days. And then the names they have given us at least give us something to speculate about.

[Tyrith]

The hitch in the seer plan is if we go believing a wolf seer early on, and get led off a cliff. This is the same risk as believing a wolf cultist. The simple solution in both cases is not to. We just don't trust the data for anything conclusive until we have some means or evidence to use as verification of their allegiance. There's no reason to get bogged down if we realize it's likely to happen.

This is a large part of the logic that's been in my head to get the seer role away from hoops. Because of the context of his backing of this plan and his nature, any data that comes from him is bound to wind up consuming a large part of our attention in any day. As much as possible I want this to not be about just our believed seer, at least until we can actually demonstrate that they should be trusted.

That said, I understand why BG day 1 is a good choice, too, because it takes the whole temptation to get bogged down in he said seer wars out of play. And ultimately that might prove to be better. However, in the end a BG has to get very lucky to have as much affect on a game as even one well placed seer scan. And if we are going to go down the seer path, the earlier the better, because it increases the chance our real seer is alive to give us some sort of verification.

This is why I am against the cultist plan - ultimately, regardless if we believe a seer or a cultist, we are probably going to need a corpse to figure out what's going on.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Giving a wolf the duke role gives them an out for saving a wolf in a lynch and allows them to claim "oops, my bad" when a bad duking occurs. It makes EVERY bit of sense that the first role a wolf would try to get would be that one. It is not a bold obvious move like going after the brutal or maniac and it offers them plenty reward.

If I am not the "real" duke as you have claimed I urge the real duke to come forward. He isn't going to, I am the duke no matter if you like it or not.

With that said I would give up my full duke power if I get believed as brutal wolf b/c that is such a kickass power and we need it to be in the hands of the village, not the wolves.

[Chief Rum]

Checking in.

Okay, I don't understand the resistance to hoops' plan, or EF's amendment. The logic is sound. Hell, I figured this out reading the rules before the game started. As someone said, it was an idea that was fairly likely to be proposed by someone today, hoops or no (and it would have been me if no one said anything to this point).

Now, EF is right. We can only believe one person per day. We should believe the BG first, and select a seer candidate to be believed on Day Two. The real seer can scan the seer candidate on Night One. The Believed BG can protect himself on Night One, and the Believed Seer on Night Two.

If we believe a seer first, he'll either be NK'd by the wolves, protected by the real BG (a possibility, but I am a little skittish about putting the real BG at possible risk), or be left alive for us to debate why the next day. That's either going to be a worthless role or have us wasting a day debating a lynch.

So select a BG on Day One. Pick a Seer to believe for Day Two. Believe said Seer Day Two.

And do not act on the Believed Seer's reveals until we can be certain of his allegiance.

I see no value in the Cultist belief idea. There's too much left open. No clear to start, we need to do a lynch to check the Cultist, and even then he might have chosen the wolf side and they decided to play out a wolf for trust. Uh uh, bad idea.

I am undecided on the Duke plan. I think there's more to it than we're spelling out right now, but it's like that nagging feeling I can't pin down yet.

I don't see a limit in roles you can claim in the rules, just what you can be believed. So, to give the village options I will make the following statements:

I am the bodyguard
I am the seer
I am the duke
I am maniac
I am the tough villager
I am the brutal wolf

Believe what you will.

[PurdueBrad]

Just catching up. Sorry, got tied up last night playing The Show because I finally got called up, well, to The Show (of course I'm not sure being the fifth starter for the Nationals qualifies but still).

The combination of Hoops/EF's logic looks right, in that we need to get another roled player out there and I particularly like the idea of getting another BG. I saw CR offer himself up and I'm fine with that but just in case, I'll offer myself up as well.

I am the body guard.

[saldana]

i gotta agree with eagle fan...we need to believe a BG today...if we do that and then have the real BG protect that person tonight, tomorrow we believe a 2nd seer...the 2 bodyguards alternate nights of protecting the 2nd seer and that person stays alive ad infinitum.

[PurdueBrad]

Wow, okay, I think I have this right. I included everything I saw (or thought I saw depending on how it was worded):

Reveals:

Cultist: lerriuqs (71), Racer (124)
Duke: dubb (82), CR (209)
Brutal: dubb (151), EF (64), CR (209)
Seer: Hoops (119), CR (209)
Bodyguard: CR (209), PB (210)
Maniac: CR (209)
Tough Villager: CR (209)

If I missed something, just quote and fix.

[PurdueBrad]

Looking at the reveals we have to choose from, the best places to choose from, imho, are:

Bodyguard today, seer tomorrow.

What is the benefit to us voting a brutal? IF I understand correctly (and I'm applying the seer rules here), they already have one brutal, why would we want to make a second?

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Brutal Wolf
Starting: When lynched may choose a player to kill. If no name has been given to the GM, a random villager will be killed.
If Believed: Will randomly kill a roled player on the opposite team (all wolves are presumed to be roled). If there are no villagers with roles left, two villagers will randomly be chosen to die. If the starting Brutal Wolf is believed they lose their starting power.

Quoted for myself. I do see the advantage of a brutal wolf for the village. I would say, however, that I still like the bodyguard/seer combo and then maybe the brutal.

[hoopsguy]

The advantage to a seer before BG or brutal is that if the believed seer lives a day he gets to name someone as cleared. That person can then be put into the next role, so you are getting a V.I.L.L.A.G.E.R (not a W.O.L.V.E.S) in that role.

D1 - believe a seer
N1 - BG can opt to protect believed seer, "real" seer can scan believed seer
D2 - believed seer clears a villager, who is believed into another high value role
N2 - wolves now have two "cleared" villagers to worry about, with more on the way if they do not take out the believed seer

If we put another role in first, we delay the timetable for this high value play.

Look, getting another BG is great - I want to have two of them and two of some other roles as well. But it does not put the same kind of pressure on the wolves as two seers. I'm not sure how you dispute this logic and I'm getting a smidge paranoid about anyone who is spending time discussing other options as being higher value.

If you do not trust me, as the person who is pushing this logic, then please give the role to someone else. I trust myself, I hope you trust me, I accept the likely fragile nature of the role. That is about all the campaigning that I'm going to do today. If you (the voters) do not trust me then please select some alternate candidate(s) that make sense and I'll back one of them.

[PurdueBrad]

Hoops, don't they likely kill our believed seer immediately and thus we get no scan from them? Or what am I missing?

[PurdueBrad]

NM, got it, re-read what you said.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I trust myself, I hope you trust me, I accept the likely fragile nature of the role. That is about all the campaigning that I'm going to do today. If you (the voters) do not trust me then please select some alternate candidate(s) that make sense and I'll back one of them.

You need a slogan and maybe to do some baby-kissing. Then maybe you'll get my vote. Also, where do you stand on taxes?

[Racer]

Catching up, how is any believed role any less risky then another (other then maybe Cultist since the person can flip if they want)? To me, the bodyguard and seer are equally dangerous. Unless I am misunderstanding the rules, the wolves gain the same additional powers whether they successfully claim being the bodyguard, seer, or some other role.

If we aren't going to believe a cultist today (which is fine), then we really should get a 2nd seer. Someone said the real seer should scan the believed seer on day one which would be a guy check in my opinion.

[PurdueBrad]

Alright, I see what Hoops is going for here.

Believe Hoops (damn, those words sounds so, so, so wrong) is the seer

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Heck, since I'm under the impression that I'll have a pretty short lifetime in the role I'll just publish my scans every morning for as long as I'm left alone at night. If I'm not finding wolves fast enough, then you have the choice to just lynch me because you think I pulled some kind of daring wolf move.

I think this is a good idea for whoever we have doubling up on the seer role at whatever point.

[DaddyTorgo]

As I said before, it's at least similar to the type of play I envisioned on D1 when I was discussing the rules of the game beforehand with Barkeep, so I have no reason not to

BELIEVE HOOPS

[DaddyTorgo]

I'm happy to put myself up as the "second seer" if people are really worried about hoops.

I questioned barkeep before the game about the value of ALL villagers claiming seer and then we could rotate the believing throughout everyone day after day in the game and have people post their scan results, and that would essentially give us an extra piece of info to tie people to BTW.

it's an interesting thought that might have merit?

[DaddyTorgo]

you could also by doing that ensure that the BG was always guarding at least one of the two seers (fake and real) every night, since the person would rotate and presumably the BG can't guard the same person every night.

[DaddyTorgo]

curious to see what people think of my modification of hoops' idea?

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

At this point I'm pretty sure if we believe a random person cultist they are going to flip just to punish us for being silly enough to give them that chance.

speaking for myself, i totally would

[DaddyTorgo]

*tap tap* is this thing on???

lol

[DaddyTorgo]

8

[DaddyTorgo]

9

[DaddyTorgo]

10!!

10 IN A ROW!!!

[hoopsguy]

If it is feasible to rotate people in/out of the seer role day by day I'm OK with doing that, although I think that potentially limits the effectiveness of it. Less risk, less reward (wolves probably will want to grab the role when possible, they obviously won't find a wolf until end-game).

If you have a villager in the role N1 and he is alive on D2 then why would you want to sub him out?

[DaddyTorgo]

because if you sub him out then the BG can re-guard the new person with the role

essentially i'm just arguing for the logical continuation of your thought after you die

[DaddyTorgo]

i guess

[DaddyTorgo]

plus by rotating people and posting results it gives us another piece of data to hold people accountable for, and if the wolves take the role and start giving us false information we will uncover them, and if they give us good information on who is a villager it will only cut down on the number of potential wolves

[hoopsguy]

Barkeep - is the believed person able to disavow their role upon obtaining it and leave it available for the masses to believe a new person on subsequent days?

[Tyrith]

I think the potential pitfall with the pick a seer, scan the new seer, believe the new seer plan is that we probably have a fake seer in this game. Which means we're going to have to have multiple people step forward and if their results conflict, we won't know which one to trust...sort of killing one of them. Which I kind of suspect might have to happen eventually anyway.

So we're ultimately going to wind up with most of our roles on the table in fairly short order. That doesn't seem like a terrible thing in this particular game, but it seems like it will be a couple of days before it all develops. There is a fair amount of risk in this plan, regardless, but the upside is so tremendous that it seems like something we should go forward with.

That said, I really am just not a fan of the hoops coronation, but I just might have to deal with that.

[EagleFan]

When you are making a house do you build the foundation first or go start on the attic?

Believe a BG and there is little risk of being led astray day one. It also gives us a vote pattern to use as something to base the seer believe from. It also doubles the number of potential blocks for tonight which puts more pressure on the wolves.

Worst case scenario we believe a wolf as the BG and just don't get the extra block but we have in effect lost NOTHING.

A second BG is huge but everyone is not only being led down a road to the seer believe but by the person who has suggested it. You are saying the only risk is if the cunning gets the seer role but that is not true at all. It is a risk not only if any one the wolves get the role but it the cultist gets that role it is just as deadly, if not even more so.

[Tyrith]

We only lose with an extra seer if we immediately believe what they say. No one is suggesting that. There is a very, very good chance that three days from now we are going to lynch whoever the heck gets this job, regardless of what happens between now and then. You only get led off a cliff if you follow someone off a cliff. We control all the risk.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Hoops, don't they likely kill our believed seer immediately and thus we get no scan from them? Or what am I missing?

Well if they do, then that will protect the original/real seer from getting night killed. I would think they would seek out the real seer though so then there would be no seers running around.

I think I might rather go with cultist (despite it's added risk of a villager screwing us and switching sides). Seer would be my 2nd choice without a doubt though.

I'm with Tyrith in that I don't feel comfortable giving the seer role to Hoops. People suggested throwing out alternatives earlier, so here's a few: Schmidty and ntndeacon.

I'm also will to claim the role but I feel a lot of people are already going that route.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Racer

Well if they do, then that will protect the original/real seer from getting night killed. I would think they would seek out the real seer though so then there would be no seers running around.

I think I might rather go with cultist (despite it's added risk of a villager screwing us and switching sides). Seer would be my 2nd choice without a doubt though.

I'm with Tyrith in that I don't feel comfortable giving the seer role to Hoops. People suggested throwing out alternatives earlier, so here's a few: Schmidty and ntndeacon.

I'm also will to claim the role but I feel a lot of people are already going that route.

Meant to say willing not will.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

When you are making a house do you build the foundation first or go start on the attic?

Believe a BG and there is little risk of being led astray day one. It also gives us a vote pattern to use as something to base the seer believe from. It also doubles the number of potential blocks for tonight which puts more pressure on the wolves.

Worst case scenario we believe a wolf as the BG and just don't get the extra block but we have in effect lost NOTHING.

A second BG is huge but everyone is not only being led down a road to the seer believe but by the person who has suggested it. You are saying the only risk is if the cunning gets the seer role but that is not true at all. It is a risk not only if any one the wolves get the role but it the cultist gets that role it is just as deadly, if not even more so.

Potentially be burned by trusting the believe seer is a dumb reason in my opinion to believe some other role. Obviously, we should take what the believed seer says with a grain of salt.

The real risk is the same whether we believe someone as a seer or a bodyguard and that's a wolf successfully being believed and gaining an additional power.

[hoopsguy]

EF, you are correct that going with a bodyguard is a good, safe play.

It does not give the village as good a chance of controlling the game, but if you are overly worried about giving the role to a wolf instead of a villager then you can take the safe play.

But, here is the question - when do you decide to take a chance in going down the seer path? The real seer isn't going to come out and clear people so how are you building your COT? If we lose two villagers, one at D1 lynch and one N1 kill, then isn't the risk of giving the seer role out on D2 greater than it was on Day 1?

Again, if you don't trust me as the recipient of the role then give it to someone else who volunteers. I'll be fine with being the architect of the plan if not the person who executes the plan. Naturally I worry about giving it to someone else when I know it would be in good hands with me, but you (again, generic you reading this post and not EF specifically) don't know that so it is up to you to make decisions that you can live with in your "BELIEVE" votes.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

I'm happy to put myself up as the "second seer" if people are really worried about hoops.

I questioned barkeep before the game about the value of ALL villagers claiming seer and then we could rotate the believing throughout everyone day after day in the game and have people post their scan results, and that would essentially give us an extra piece of info to tie people to BTW.

it's an interesting thought that might have merit?

I definitely think we need to have at least two options today on who to believe. If it's a close vote between a wolf and a villager, then there's a decent chance most of the wolves will believe the wolf to avoid getting a 2nd seer in the game (or whatever role we go with unless it something not that powerful like a duke). So basically, if we have multiple options, then it's one more thing we can use to sort out the wolves.

[USFLTecmo]

I have no "real" role, so if I'm needed as a candidate for something, I can do it. Probably better for me to risk my hide than for others with actual roles and/or better ability to read people than I do being taken out early.

[PurdueBrad]

So if I read Hoops' description correctly. We name an alternate seer today, our real seer scans that person while our bodyguard protects the alternate seer. Tomorrow, we name a second bodyguard and, if a seer doesn't reveal and say the second one is a wolf, then we name a second bodyguard. I think that is a fairly safe play in all honesty.

Who is to say that we won't name a wolf bodyguard and they won't use their action or they'll do a no kill and pretend it was a block w/ no info in order to get trust?

I think the seer route may be a touch safer.

[USFLTecmo]

While we're playing around with who to trust as a seer, I suppose voting someone out should also be in the cards.

Vote Lerriuqs

Either we nab ourselves the cultist, which is a better result than we can honestly expect from a random selection, or he comes out as something else altogether. Until he does that, though, I like my vote.

[USFLTecmo]

Bah, forgot bold.

Vote Lerriuqs

[Racer]

Believe Chief Rum as Seer

He's the only person so far claim to be the seer besides Hoops. Like I said earlier, I a bit wary of Hoops and I think it would benefit us to have options.

Also, I think it would be good to start voting to lynch someone now to see if there is any movement to get votes off of someone.


Vote dubb93

Will almost certainly move this vote, but he's acting a bit off the wall in this thread so far so I think it's safe to say he's not the real seer, bodyguard, etc. I also find it odd that he didn't vote for Eaglefan when 1.) He acts like he's suspicious of Eaglefan. 2.) Eaglefan voted for him

[DaddyTorgo]

I AM THE SEER

now we have another option - and i'm leery of trusting Chief Rum with anything in WW because I chronically have poor reads on him.

VOTE LERRIUQS

for the reasons laid out by USFL

[lerriuqs]

Originally Posted by USFLTecmo

While we're playing around with who to trust as a seer, I suppose voting someone out should also be in the cards.

Vote Lerriuqs

Either we nab ourselves the cultist, which is a better result than we can honestly expect from a random selection, or he comes out as something else altogether. Until he does that, though, I like my vote.

We have three people who have claimed the brutal and one other who has claimed the cultist and this is your logic??

Really?

Why would a wolf jump out at the very start and open himself up like that? Hmm?

No, the wolves today are claiming villager roles not wolf roles.

With that being said:

VOTE DaddyTorgo

Something about his first two posts in here overnight struck me as odd.