WW CLVI - Clue: Master Detective - GAME OVER! MURDERERS WIN! (Post 1817)

[hoopsguy]

Amend slightly - core characters seem to have a higher likelihood of either starting murderer or becoming murderer. While other classes are less likely to start or become murderers, depending on classification.

Bottom line - there will, at least in my mind, be some level of weighting that goes on as part of the lynching process once a reveal is made. Not just by "what can you do" and "who can vouch for you" but also "how likely is it you are going to be my enemy later in this game".

[Coffee Warlord]

2 - britrock
1 - Zinto
1 - murrayyyy
1 - JAG

[bulletsponge]

well it worked last game, so might as well try it this game too

Vote britrock

[Lathum]

Vote Murrayyyy

may as well get a vote out there. HE played a dangerous game as a wolf last time out. This is a respect vote.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Vote Murrayyyy

may as well get a vote out there. HE played a dangerous game as a wolf last time out. This is a respect vote.

That's murrayyyyy. Five 'y's. I should know. I typed it many, many times last game.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by bulletsponge

well it worked last game, so might as well try it this game too

Vote britrock

I realize it's Day One and likely no one knows anything. But you just put a third vote on britrock before anyone else even got a second.

You have anything better on him than it worked last game?

Brit has been a wolf two games running, too. Not that that affects his chances of being a wolf this time (it doesn't), but it would be an odd coincidence to see him be a wolf three games in a row.

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Vote Murrayyyy

may as well get a vote out there. HE played a dangerous game as a wolf last time out. This is a respect vote.

So this is how Butler basketball must feel...

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

So this is how Butler basketball must feel...

Another half dozen votes today and it is how Butler basketball felt against VCU this past weekend.

[Coffee Warlord]

3 - britrock
1 - Zinto
2 - murrayyyy
1 - JAG

[murrayyyyy]

vote DQ_BOY1000

I had a Blizzard once with brownies in it, hated it...

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Another half dozen votes today and it is how Butler basketball felt against VCU this past weekend.

Damn, well I would have said Gonzaga but they've never made it to the finals before.

Why are two wolves from the last game getting all the votes?

[path12]

Have a big workload today, my weeks are frontloaded. Will check in some but likely not around until later this evening.

My alien base assault was a roaring success in X-Com so I can give my squad a night off for werewolf strategy instead.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

Damn, well I would have said Gonzaga but they've never made it to the finals before.

Why are two wolves from the last game getting all the votes?

There is often a little D1 payback for people who were successful wolves in previous games. Maybe a little less so for villagers who lasted until the end, under the "well, they just had a long game so it is more OK for them to have a short one this time" logic.

[Autumn]

There, I gave everybody a nice headstart on post numbers. Now I'm going to read and catch up.

[bulletsponge]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I realize it's Day One and likely no one knows anything. But you just put a third vote on britrock before anyone else even got a second.

You have anything better on him than it worked last game?

Brit has been a wolf two games running, too. Not that that affects his chances of being a wolf this time (it doesn't), but it would be an odd coincidence to see him be a wolf three games in a row.

hmm didnt know Brit was a wolf 2 games running. makes a great wolf disguise

but to make you happy

UNVOTE BRITROck


Vote Chief Rum

happy now?

[bulletsponge]

crap thats wrong

Unvote Britrock

Vote Chief Rum

[bulletsponge]

day 1 is always a crap shoot, your just hoping not to kill someone important

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

.


The Other Extras
These are publicly known characters at the onset of the game. Whether or not they are a murderer is, however, not known. What powers they have is also not known. HOWEVER. The Other Extras are running late, and don't arrive to the mansion with the rest of the guests. They will arrive at an unknown day (no later than day 3, most likely earlier). They can take no actions, be targeted for night actions, or be lynched until they have arrived at the house. They CAN take part in any discussions, however, and they CAN vote.

sounds like the Other extras can be murderers

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by bulletsponge

day 1 is always a crap shoot, your just hoping not to kill someone important

And staying alive too. getting voted out day 1 sucks. let me tell you!

[PackerFanatic]

They can be murderers to start - but my understanding is they cannot be converted (which I think is the caveat with everyone else). So while we don't know who in that group may have started as one, we do know they can't become one after the fact.

[PackerFanatic]

And I guess when I say "everyone else", I mean just the big 6. I think those are really the only ones we have to worry about with conversions.

[ntndeacon]

right, Just the big 6 can be converted.

[Coffee Warlord]

2 - britrock
2 - murrayyyy
1 - Zinto
1 - JAG
1 - DQ_BOY1000
1 - Chief Rum

[Danny]

Originally Posted by JAG

Pretty good point there. I read the rules as 'cannot become murderers' to mean 'are not murderers so they're ok', but CW is being coy about who the initial murderers are (other than to say there are some in the game now), so I'm withholding judgment on that now.

Kind of a stupid question, but for anyone that remembers it, does the movie give us any idea of what roles we might be able to trust? I don't recall that much of it other than there were multiple endings.

You can trust me!

[britrock88]

How many of the Big Six are guilty depended on the ending.

[Danny]

Been going back and forth on who to vote for, but I think have decided now

vote hoopsguy

[britrock88]

Okay, I'll shout louder to try to organize us.

I think ANYONE can START the game as a murderer (if I'm wrong, I would think ANYONE BUT THE BIG SIX can start the game as a murderer). As I read the rules, ONLY THE BIG SIX can BECOME a murderer.

We have 22 players, 6 of whom are in the Big Six and therefore convertible. Based on that math, I would guess we're starting with ~4 murderers outside of the Big Six. The Big Six, I would suppose, can become murderers by killing the people against whom they have a vendetta. Assuming Mr. Green is like the others, there's a 6/21 chance of conversion on a given night.

That's all speculation. The most important point is that there ARE murderers out there who may come from ANY group of characters. And the Big Six are special (as the only convertible players). I would also suspect that, as the main protagonists, they might have some of the more powerful roles, as well.

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

There is often a little D1 payback for people who were successful wolves in previous games. Maybe a little less so for villagers who lasted until the end, under the "well, they just had a long game so it is more OK for them to have a short one this time" logic.

Well a 13 seed does get lucky every once in a while... (can you tell I'm ready for this month)

[Danny]

unvote hoopsguy

[DQ_BOY1000]

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

vote DQ_BOY1000

I had a Blizzard once with brownies in it, hated it...

Your problem being that you had brownies in it... Heath and Butterfinger is the way to go!

[DQ_BOY1000]

P.S. vote murrayyyyy

[PackerFanatic]

Okay, Danny is just toying with us now. Some kind of vote/unvote condition? Or just dicking around with Hoops?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by britrock88

Okay, I'll shout louder to try to organize us.

I think ANYONE can START the game as a murderer (if I'm wrong, I would think ANYONE BUT THE BIG SIX can start the game as a murderer). As I read the rules, ONLY THE BIG SIX can BECOME a murderer.

We have 22 players, 6 of whom are in the Big Six and therefore convertible. Based on that math, I would guess we're starting with ~4 murderers outside of the Big Six. The Big Six, I would suppose, can become murderers by killing the people against whom they have a vendetta. Assuming Mr. Green is like the others, there's a 6/21 chance of conversion on a given night.

That's all speculation. The most important point is that there ARE murderers out there who may come from ANY group of characters. And the Big Six are special (as the only convertible players). I would also suspect that, as the main protagonists, they might have some of the more powerful roles, as well.

Did you guys here something?

I think a chart works better.

The Big Six

Start as murderers? Unstated
Can become murderers? Yes


Informants

Start as murderers? Unstated
Can become murderers? No


The Extras

Start as murderers? Unstated
Can become murderers? No


Other Extras

Start as murderers? Possibly
Can become murderers? Unstated

[Coffee Warlord]

I think you need a Venn diagram.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

Okay, Danny is just toying with us now. Some kind of vote/unvote condition? Or just dicking around with Hoops?

I do have a condition that is related to me voting / unvoting, but that is not related to this game.

[Chief Rum]

We have 22 players. Let's say the breakdown of murderers to villagers is similar to other games, we're looking at 5-7 murderers, adjusted somewhat for possible conversions or cultist type roles.

With (41%) of the players comprised of Extra Roles, it seems unlikely that none of the 6 murderers are in that group. It seems likely that two of that group (at least) will be murderers, and a decent chance at three.

But that means it's likely we have 3-4 among the 13 currently in the house.

if we rule out the Informants and Extras as possible murderers, that would mean half to more than half of the Big Six are likely murderers. That seems to be a rather inauspicious grouping of murderers within one group. It would be pretty difficult for a Big Six player to get away with being a murderer, since we would kill any Big Six player we find (just on the odds).

I don't think CW would design his game that way, so that tells me that Informants and Extras can start as murderers as well. Maybe they can't be converted, but they can start there.

All that said, it does seem to be to our advantage to find the Big Six and eliminate them, as that seems to be a village strategy that has better odds of working out for us. Unless all of our best roles are with them (possible).

[Danny]

No chance I am voting Chief, he is putting in some good work so far. I also dont see myself voting Jag and probably not Zinto.

[Danny]

vote chubby

[Chief Rum]

I think it does us a lot of good to always keep these lists in mind:

START THE GAME IN THE HOUSE

bulletsponge
Zinto
JAG
Chief Rum
PackerFanatic
Lathum
britrock88
murrayyyyy
path12
ntndeacon
DQ_BOY1000
fontisian
Chubby

START THE GAME AS EXTRA ROLES/OUT OF HOUSE

KatyLied
Darth Vilus
hoopsguy
bhlloy
mauchow
DaddyTorgo
Autumn
Saldana
Danny

[Danny]

I think the second list is clearly superior

[Coffee Warlord]

Someone pointed out...I was kind of remiss in posting the victory conditions...mainly because they are the standard: Kill all murderers, or get a 1:1 murderer/village ratio.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

I think the second list is clearly superior

Yeah, but strength of body odor isn't everything.

[Coffee Warlord]

3 - murrayyyy
2 - britrock
1 - Zinto
1 - JAG
1 - DQ_BOY1000
1 - Chief Rum
1 - Chubby

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by DQ_BOY1000

Sorry for the confusion. I was in a rush.

I meant that all those could be murderers. I will do a more thorough job of proof reading so as to not be miss misunderstood.


However I agree with brittrock...



Have we come to any conclusion on who can and who cannot be a murderer at the beginning of the game and who can become one later?

You don't have to proof read, I may have been a little intoxicated when I read that, so I wasn't a hundred percent sure I had read your post correctly.

[Autumn]

We know that the Big Six want to kill someone. We also know that they can become murderers. We know that the Informants and Extras cannot become murderers (through ordinary means). Thus it seems likely that the method to become a Murderer has to do with killing one of the other players (duh). Presumably each of the Big Six has the ability to kill one of the informants, and if they do so I would expect they become a Murderer. The Informants and Extras have abilities but do not have the ability to kill, and so cannot become Murderers.

The Other Extras are a wildcard. It seems possible that some of us have the ability to kill and so could become murderers. However the section on Murderers says, and I quote, "Any one of the Big Six may also become a murderer during the course of the game, if certain conditions are met." So this seems to imply that the Other Extras will not, though it may be that this changed as the number of players increased.

My guess is that the initial Killer(s) can come from anywhere. It sounds like the original plan (which was at least 13 players) probably started with one killer. I would expect that we started with 2, or possibly 3, but I would be surprised if it was more than that. If all six of the Big Six got lucky night 1, there could be six kills just there (and six new murderers?). So I don't think we need a lot of killers outside of that.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by bulletsponge

oh hell yea! one of my guilty pleasure movies. and after having fun in the last WW game im up for this



Bulletsponge shags Ms Scarlett in the study

I predict that this post will become very awkward within the next few days.

[Autumn]

I agree with I think it was Hoopsguy's assessment that knocking off hte Big Six is our best strategy to start. Each of these has a chance to become a murderer, or at the very least the likelihood of killing another player (who will likely be a villager). If we could get rid of them we'd be providing safety for six other players, and removing possible future Murderers. The chance of catching the Killer(s) at this point is remote since they could even be out of the house. So the Big Six it is, for me.

[Autumn]

I will vote Chubby, simply because he has a vote and would not get thrown out of the ring on the first try in the last game.

VOTE CHUBBY

[Zinto]

Chief's and Brit's idea that anybody can start a murderer makes sense to me. Along with their conversion theory about who can be converted. We can try for the big six because if they are all already here then we have a little less then a 50% chance to hit one today.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Danny

I do have a condition that is related to me voting / unvoting, but that is not related to this game.

Don't ever ask Danny about his conditions.