Werewolf LI Major League (GAME OVER!!! INDIANS--GOOD GUYS--WIN!!!)

[Passacaglia]

So how do we resolve this debate? My suspicion is that it's random. That said, it's not like we want the scout to come in here and start telling us (and the wolves) everyone's rank. I think there's enough people on both sides of this argument that it's not going to help us spot any wolves, so maybe we should just let the scout do his thing and drop it. I think a better question is how we get meaningful info from the scout, without giving that info to the wolves.

[DaddyTorgo]

damm. That's going to be tough. that's why I think something like the listed stuff earlier or whatever might be useful.

although...bottom line is..it's about catching the wolves. Dunno if that type of stuff will really help us catch the wolves. I think if we want to do some complicated chart-thing or whatever...we need to get it setup today, not let it become too much of a distraction later on. If it keeps being a distraction past say...D2...i'm going to start looking at the people that are pushing it and keeping it in the forefront...getting the village sidetracked onto that would be a great wolf-play.

[DaddyTorgo]

dola "something like the list mentioned earlier" not "listed stuff"

[hoopsguy]

We'll get some information on who "steps up" based on the results post from Chief Rum. That should help us start getting a sense of who ranks where in terms of importance. The Scout should be able to augment that if/when he reveals info. I think his value comes in helping us catch a wolf in a lie - viewing someone as high talent who doesn't get their result to come into play when they say they step up, for example. But we should be able to start working on a rough list without his info as we get deeper in the game.

I'm clearly in favor of a structured approach to the "step it up" performances, but I don't want to cram it down people's throats. So, here are some questions I have on how to examine what I've put out there:
- is five the right number of people to have submit a "step it up" performance per night? Too many or too few?
- is there a better way of selecting who goes each night than the number listed in the "Player List"?

[Passacaglia]

I'm in favor of a structured approach as well, but I'm wondering -- what are we trying to learn from it?

[MikeVic]

That's a good point about using the scout to potentially sniff out a wolf...

As for the step-it-up... I think my math is correct:
We have 14 players, and each has three step-it-ups. 14x3=42.
We have six days to use our step-it-ups. 42/6=7.

So, if we never lose anyone (impossible), we can do seven step-it-ups a day. I think that means five is a bit too high, and I would like to use four at most instead.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I'm in favor of a structured approach as well, but I'm wondering -- what are we trying to learn from it?

Well, we don't know what the results are going to be for the "night phase" so I'm not sure yet. However, a game is going to be played that has the potential to be influenced by players who "step it up". Not all players are equal. So we are looking to learn the relative value of the players.

Keep in mind, there are at least two people out there who have no interest in seeing us succeed. If they are going to "step it up" it will be to our detriment. They could also act by not acting - saying they will step up and not doing so.

So we are going to measure the value of the "step it up" performers based on their results. Those who are successful in helping the team move towards trusted. They also become targets for the wolves, so they probably go near the top of the list of candidates for the bodyguard to protect.

Those who do not end up providing a boost with their "step up" draw a little closer attention. They won't be moving into trust lists, and they become better targets for the Seer and the Scout.

That is how I think this should shake out. Of course, a natural conclusion I draw from this is that a set rotation of "step up" players being mapped out now probably doesn't give us our best value going forward - we should likely try to maximize our best performers before they are eliminated by the wolves. But we absolutely need to have a plan for today.

[MikeVic]

I don't know who to trust just yet, but I don't want hoopsguy gone yet either. Not sure who to vote for, but I would like if hoopsguy stayed onboard.

I'd like to hear more people's opinions about our strategy options too. It doesn't seem like enough people are voicing their opinions. I don't see a problem with having a few people use their step-it-up each day. It looks like our loud-mouth DH would like to step-it-up today.

[Barkeep49]

I think 3 or 4 per day is the right number.

[KWhit]

I like the plan to have about 4-5 step-it-uppers a night. That will at the very least give us more information to go on and more information is always a good thing for the villagers, especially early on.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by KWhit

I like the plan to have about 4-5 step-it-uppers a night. That will at the very least give us more information to go on and more information is always a good thing for the villagers, especially early on.

That wasn't in response to you BK. Just a general statement.

[KWhit]

Well, I don't know how much time I'll have between now and lynch, so I want to get a vote out there. This is just due to low activity - just 4 posts in the thread (and one of those was saying he was in). Since we have nothing else to go on (not sold on the BK vs. Hoops thing):

VOTE NTNDEACON

[st.cronin]

I will volunteer to step it up today (tonight).

[path12]

Have the greatest player in the majors step it up tonight: Jack Parkman. Surround him with three others who aren't in my league (well, none of you are in my league, but you know what I mean).

[path12]

Dola, one of the others should be someone we think is a pretty good player so we can get a decent comparison.

[MikeVic]

I'm an excellent player, but maybe I can switch to DH.

[Passacaglia]

Why don't we just go by player number in the 3rd post?

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Why don't we just go by player number in the 3rd post?

That was my proposal to avoid having the process hijacked. I guess I would prefer to take my chances with random.org instead of having to trust people to have good intentions on Day 1. Starting with Day 2 we can make decisions based upon some results, but today we are flying blind.

[MikeVic]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Why don't we just go by player number in the 3rd post?

Because you're a no-good, wife-banging whore!

But seriously, I think there's merit in trying to put one supposed "big-name" guy to step-it-up, and then put a few lesser players. This could help us determine if players' talents are based on movie role. Parkman was very good in the movie.

However, Parkman was also pretty hairy if I remember correctly. So maybe he's a werewolf.

[Barkeep49]

I agree that we want a random distribution for step ups today, and likely tomorrow. I still think 5 is too many to give us good info though.

[Barkeep49]

Also a big hello to hahnkim who I see reading through the thread now. You should sign up for our next game.

[st.cronin]

I'm not sure I understand the random method being suggested, but if its actually random, I support it.

[hoopsguy]

Also, note that we have an earlier deadline than normal today.

Day One (Tuesday, 7 p.m. EST)

So we are just over five hours away from the time where actions need to be submitted. With that in mind, I would like to see some fairly quick agreement on the approach to take today. I haven't even looked yet at the sign-up numbers to see if I should be putting in an action yet because we have not come to a consensus on this point. I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one ...

Finally, I'll use this post to once again ask people to find someone besides me to vote off on Day 1. I would like to think that I'll be a help to the team in the days to come as an active participant who is trying to increase our understanding of the game and optimize our chances of winning. Right now I need a two vote swing, as I'm up one and also in position to lose any tie.

[DaddyTorgo]

don't let cronin step it up. Dude smells like a lycanthrope from here

[MikeVic]

I'm ok with completely random today too. Use that random.org thing.

I never thought about it in that way, but less people stepping-it-up would give us more information early on, since we could figure out relative talents between four people instead of five?

I also think we should keep hoopsguy on. I just don't know who to pile on to vote for, as no one has two votes yet other than hoopsguy.

[hoopsguy]

Player List

1. DaddyTorgo
2. Barkeep
3. KWhit
4. Passacaglia
5. Celeval
6. Lathum
7. MikeVic
8. hoopsguy
9. path12
10. Jonathan Ezarik
11. ntndeacon
12. Gonzo
13. PurdueBrad
14. st.cronin

Picking who steps up tonight based on their number in the Player List post - so if we went with four players tonight they would be 1,5,9, and 13. Or we start with 2 if there is any concern about player 1.

I would rather go with five tonight. We don't know that everyone who is supposed to submit actions will be back tonight before deadline, read that that they are supposed to act, and do it. I would also prefer to have more bullets in the gun (figuratively speaking) to see if we can avert the "wolf" getting to influence the game instead of us, if that enters into the success/failure of the mechanic.

Finally, we might want to avoid having people in the voting runoff flagged as step-up performers. I don't think they would get to influence the game if they are being removed from the team.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

don't let cronin step it up. Dude smells like a lycanthrope from here

You are a) way off base, and b) not playing in the spirit of the game, imho. I can't explain the timestamps, but the posts that concern you were made approximately 1 hour apart. I'm a simple villager.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

don't let cronin step it up. Dude smells like a lycanthrope from here

Why are you pushing so hard for st.cronin?

[MikeVic]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

You are a) way off base, and b) not playing in the spirit of the game, imho. I can't explain the timestamps, but the posts that concern you were made approximately 1 hour apart. I'm a simple villager.

Hmm, playing the ol' timestamp bug eh? I smell something trout-y.

[MikeVic]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Picking who steps up tonight based on their number in the Player List post - so if we went with four players tonight they would be 1,5,9, and 13. Or we start with 2 if there is any concern about player 1.

I would rather go with five tonight. We don't know that everyone who is supposed to submit actions will be back tonight before deadline, read that that they are supposed to act, and do it. I would also prefer to have more bullets in the gun (figuratively speaking) to see if we can avert the "wolf" getting to influence the game instead of us, if that enters into the success/failure of the mechanic.

Finally, we might want to avoid having people in the voting runoff flagged as step-up performers. I don't think they would get to influence the game if they are being removed from the team.

I think we should make it completely random. Why are we picking 1,5,9, and 13?

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

I never thought about it in that way, but less people stepping-it-up would give us more information early on, since we could figure out relative talents between four people instead of five?

I think you are correct about less people stepping up, but it also gives the wolves a better chance to win the process - either through villagers not getting their actions in or not having enough clout.

Second, we are voting off one person per day and there are almost certainly going to be "night kills" for the wolves, given that this is werewolf and that we have a bodyguard role. So there are going to be people moving on that will never get to use their three step-ups. I would rather use them early than see people dying that could have used a step-up but were saving it. That is where the math earlier on # of players * 3 = total step-ups was off-base.

With what I know right now - that the wolves can win a victory if we fall too far behind the Yankees - I want to see us push hard to get the win as a priority with the night actions. We'll still get info whether it is 3, 4, 5, or 6 players but the higher number of players allows us the best chance at a victory on a given day.

[st.cronin]

Being that I'm no special role, I encourage people to vote for me if they want another candidate besides hoopsguy. Barring any other information, its my own opinion that day 1 the best move by the village is to remove somebody who doesn't contribute much. In that respect, I think we can do much better than hoops and myself.

[Passacaglia]

I'm all for random.org, but -- who do we trust to be the randomizer?

[DaddyTorgo]

not playing in the spirit of the game cronin? wtf is that supposed to mean?

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

I think we should make it completely random. Why are we picking 1,5,9, and 13?

Who decides what is "completely random"? Someone has to input numbers at random.org - do you want a wolf doing that?

As far as 1,5,9, 13 that was based on (# of players)/(# of step-ups) and then rounding up to the nearest integer and adding that to #1. However, I would be fine with any other system that people feel grants more randomness. Start with #3, so the numbers are 2,6,10, and 14 today. Decide to use the first four prime numbers - whatever works, as long as there is reason to believe it is a truly random system for today.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

not playing in the spirit of the game cronin? wtf is that supposed to mean?

Using "time of post" as a reason to vote.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I'm all for random.org, but -- who do we trust to be the randomizer?

have 2 people do it at the same time and average their results, rounding down? stipulate that the results must be posted at a specific time (or within 1 minute) to avoid mathematical trickery

[hoopsguy]

Er, start with #2 in the above post for 2,6,10, and 14. I initially said 3, then realized that we only had 14 players so dropped back to 2. Sorry for the confusion - would edit the post if it was allowed.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

have 2 people do it at the same time and average their results, rounding down? stipulate that the results must be posted at a specific time (or within 1 minute) to avoid mathematical trickery

My gut says that this method increases the likelihood of players in the middle of the list being selected relative to the highs/lows.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Using "time of post" as a reason to vote.

that's perfectly valid in my opinion.

what I smell here is a WW with someone clinging to a vote they wanted to be a throwaway who is frantic to get that person off

[path12]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

However, Parkman was also pretty hairy if I remember correctly. So maybe he's a werewolf.

That's uncommonly high virility, my friend. Jack Parkman is extraordinary in every way. A man amongst boys, you might say. I certainly would.

I'm in favor of the numbers hoops posted, because it includes me.

[DaddyTorgo]

in hindsight...prolly doesn't matter if a wolf does it. They might keep it off their fellow wolves, but they won't have any better idea at this point who is talented in what way. We need to think about this anyways though for later in the game.

still not convinced that this really...matters that much. As i've said...come D2 I really hope we are focused on something other than this.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

that's perfectly valid in my opinion.

what I smell here is a WW with someone clinging to a vote they wanted to be a throwaway who is frantic to get that person off

Who am I trying to get off, now?

[st.cronin]

hoops, why not simply do it like a reverse vote?

Everybody puts out a list of who they want to step up today. The player with the least amount of votes, we follow that list.

My list:

st.cronin
hoopsguy
KWhit
Barkeep49

I say we stick with 4 for now.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Who am I trying to get off, now?

LOL

no hard feelings hmm man? I'm just calling em like I see em, and something about you has set off my internal "wolf-detector" in a way that only Izulde did in one of my first games way back when.

maybe i'm wrong. Maybe i'm right. But it's a D1 vote, and I'm just your average Ivan, so why not push it.

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, I'm fine with that approach if we get enough people to do it - I don't like it if we have less than half of the people participating. We also need to allow enough time for people to see that they are step-up performers and act accordingly via PM.

I suggest that we put a hard deadline on discussion and make a decision by 5PM EST. That gives two hours for people to act on the information.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

hoops, why not simply do it like a reverse vote?

Everybody puts out a list of who they want to step up today. The player with the least amount of votes, we follow that list.

My list:

st.cronin
hoopsguy
KWhit
Barkeep49

I say we stick with 4 for now.

takes too much time, and we're < 5 hours to deadline now.

plus it's susceptible to manipuation too.

howled at any moons lately cronin?

[st.cronin]

dola, for tiebreak go with whoever posted their list first.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Wasn't a whine, was more relief.

Not sure what people find confusing about it at this point, as I thought I'd responded to anything specific. If you want to state what you find confusing I can respond to it.

I know we've got a lot going on now, but I want to get back to this point, which I didn't get to reply to this morning. First off, sorry I accused you of whining! Secondly, while I didn't follow a lot of what you said earlier yesterday, the thing that really makes me scratch my head is where you talk about hoops gunning for you, when all he had done was talk about the rules, and you had already put a vote on him, leading a mini-bandwagon (maybe lathum's vote would have come out for hoops either way, but the point remains that hoops is in the lead now). Can you explain what you meant by that?

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Cronin, I'm fine with that approach if we get enough people to do it - I don't like it if we have less than half of the people participating. We also need to allow enough time for people to see that they are step-up performers and act accordingly via PM.

I suggest that we put a hard deadline on discussion and make a decision by 5PM EST. That gives two hours for people to act on the information.

I think we can make it happen, just go ahead and post yours now, and the bandwagon will start.