WW LXXXV -- Life Contingencies II (GAME OVER)

[Chief Rum]

"By himself" is supposed to be in italics. Way to go, dumbass.

[Chief Rum]

All right, I have to get a vote in.

I can buy some of Alan's logic. The thing that bugs me is his tendency to lock himself into an argument and not sway from it or properly consider other viewpoints, a well-known habit of his that happened to get me killed the last game I was in.

But it's enough for me for today.

VOTE PATH

[Passacaglia]

Vote count:

[Passacaglia]

The villagers get together and decide that The Jackal must die, and he does. The Jackal was a villager!

[hoopsguy]

Well, I guess it is good that we are not lynching roles but it would be nice to fall into a wolf one of these times. Particularly if it is not going to be one of the top vote getters, as they get left alone to come back into discussion again the following day.

[Hannibal Lecter]

Is is possible that the good Dr. Caglia has reversed the odds? To confuse use perhaps?

[RendeR]

whale shit.

[The Jackal]

Bah.

[Alan T]

Well I have mixed feelings about still being alive. I am relieved that I did not die as it is always better to lynch a wolf than a villager, but Jackal's death is the same as if I had died, and at least with my death people would have learned about Path, Hannibal Lecter and Render.

Either way, as I said before the game even started, I likely won't be around at all tommorrow due to travelling. I'll check in the morning before I head out to put a vote in, but then I'll be gone so bandwagon away!

I know everyone will miss my rambling lengthy posts

[PackerFanatic]

Gah - that was a complete brain fart on my part not getting a vote in Sorry cats.

[Alan T]

Bah, I was hoping night results would be up by now. I need to get going though. I am assuming they aren't going to night kill me , so hopefully as long as I am still alive, Pass will take this vote a bit early. I might be able to check in later on my blackberry, but not sure.

Vote Path

[Passacaglia]

Again, the villagers wake up to find a good guy missing. Lathum was the duke!

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Bah, I was hoping night results would be up by now. I need to get going though. I am assuming they aren't going to night kill me , so hopefully as long as I am still alive, Pass will take this vote a bit early. I might be able to check in later on my blackberry, but not sure.

Vote Path

My bad on that. I meant for the night deadline to be 7 Eastern, 6 Central, and got myself messed up on the time difference, and even that is just to make sure all orders are in before I get to the computer, which is usually 7 Central.

[hoopsguy]

OK, this would be the point where it would be pretty helpful for a seer to come forward if he has scanned two people who are still alive. We could start building a trust list and actually have a good % chance of hitting a wolf today (3 trusted, 3+ wolves among remaining 5).

I'm not that guy - otherwise I would come forward.

If the seer does reveal himself today then there is still only a 40% chance that he dies overnight. And I'm hoping that we get a dice roll to go our way at some point this game ...

[Danny]

I am the seer

Night 1 I scanned Render and he is good
Night 2 I scanned Hannibal and he is a wolf

Like Hoopsguy said, I feel the list of people the wolves think could be seers has definitely shrunk and I probably won't have that much higher of a chance of being killed by revealing and would rather put out what I know then risk being killed and you guys being forced to guess based on the hints I left.

I didn't reveal a role day one because there was no need to. I had no votes on me and was able to be around until deadline just in case I needed to say something.

[Danny]

Vote Hannibal

[Chief Rum]

Wow, great job Danny!

VOTE HANNIBAL

[Chief Rum]

Well, I am working two jobs today, so I am out of here, but it looks like our job is done, assuming Danny is on the up and up. See you guys tonight.

[Danny]

Some additional analysis for after today since well I may not be alive tomorrow

2 or 3 (probably 2) out of AlanT, Hoopsguy, Chief Rum, Packerfanatic and Path have to be bad.

I tend to agree with what Hoopsguy said yesterday about there not being more than one wolf on AlanT. We know Render is good, I also personally believe Path is likely good as well though that's not for sure.

If for now we have him as good (not cleared by any means) then two or three out of Hoopsguy, AlanT, Chief Rum and Packer Fanatic are wolves. My scan tonight will be going towards these individuals.

[Lathum]

drats

[Danny]

The kid I work with is sick, so I am home today. Also means I am going back to sleep, but I'll be back on before my regular time (unless I sleep all day

[Hannibal Lecter]

Well this is unfortunate, I have meeting most of the afternoon, so I will only be in occasionally to argue. I am the seer. I didnt want to come forward until I had more hard evidence, and I belive this gives me what I was unable to find!

night one. Hoops is good
Night two Alan T is good (which confuses the hell out of me)

I think lynching me is bad, but it will confirm Danny is a wolf, something I was unable to find.

and woo being the seer in back to back games!

[Hannibal Lecter]

vote danny

[hoopsguy]

I'll trust Danny for now, hope that we are not in some wolf end game scenario. I should have some time this afternoon to discuss the candidates. My initial data point would be voting records; wolves will not want to create 10% chances (rough estimate for first couple of days) that they are lynched, particularly after what happened with BK on D1. I know right now that this will make my voting record look particularly bad if Danny is the good guy and telling the truth, as I've voted for RendeR and The Jackal.

VOTE HANNIBAL LECTER

[hoopsguy]

One more note before I run - Danny did suggest in his first post yesterday that he did not suspect RendeR. I recall this because I argued against his posted reasons for doing so at the time. But this is another reason to trust Danny over Hannibal. I would encourage Hannibal to try and find posts earlier in the thread that would back his claim of being the seer.

[path12]

Interesting. Always fun to have a double claim. Until I hear more I'm going with the original.

VOTE HANNIBAL

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Hannibal Lecter

Well this is unfortunate, I have meeting most of the afternoon, so I will only be in occasionally to argue. I am the seer. I didnt want to come forward until I had more hard evidence, and I belive this gives me what I was unable to find!

night one. Hoops is good
Night two Alan T is good (which confuses the hell out of me)

I think lynching me is bad, but it will confirm Danny is a wolf, something I was unable to find.

and woo being the seer in back to back games!

See this is the kind of thing I like to have happen. A second claim of seer after the first one cleared me, and I know I'm good so I trust the first guy far more, add to that he claims the one guy thats been pinging my wolf-dar all game long (Alan) is also good and throws a cute comment in with it.

VOTE HANNIBAL

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by RendeR

See this is the kind of thing I like to have happen. A second claim of seer after the first one cleared me, and I know I'm good so I trust the first guy far more, add to that he claims the one guy thats been pinging my wolf-dar all game long (Alan) is also good and throws a cute comment in with it.

VOTE HANNIBAL

Don't give me that crap. You went out of your way to be insulting and make sure the entire world knew how I was talking circles or whatever you said when I was explaining how Path's arguments made no sense and then showed how Hannibal's points seemed to be an attempt to try to give support to Path's discussion. You went out of your way to put your neck on the line to defend the two of them. I know that Danny scanned you, but the way you want so far way overboard on your discussion beyond the realm of possibility, I wouldn't be suprised if a balancing feature this game was having you as a cunning wolf even. I don't need your trying to spin my attacks on a wolf as it meaning I am bad, when you were supporting the wolf.

Anyhows, only had a minute to check in, I fully believe Danny's scan of Hannibal since I pretty much have convinced myself that the three wolves are Path, Hannibal and Render. I think it seems very likely that Render has to be a cunning wolf. Why else would he stick his neck out to try to defend Path and Hannibal other than to move votes off of them. In a game where percentages are in play, I bet wolves are less likely to vote for other wolves unless it is a forgone conclusion (such as today), and every single vote they can move off of a wolf to someone else is a fractional improvement of their odds to escape the lynch.

Anyhows, I'll move my vote for today to try to help add to the odds that Hannibal is lynched. I see absolutely no reason to not go after Path tommorrow though. I am pretty sure I'll be gone now until some point after 4 or 5am ET now.

Unvote Path
Vote Hannibal Lecter

[Hannibal Lecter]

meh, oh well. youll see that Danny is the wolf when the vote comes.

[PackerFanatic]

VOTE HANNIBAL

As it stands, we don't have a reason not to trust the first one to come out.

[Passacaglia]

I've got 7 for Hannibal Lecter, and 1 for Danny.

[Passacaglia]

The villagers get together and decide that Hannibal Lecter must be the one to go. Hannibal Lecter was a wolf!

[Hannibal Lecter]

lame

[PackerFanatic]

Booyah. Well done Danny!

[RendeR]

Who's next then...I have MY opinion of course .

[hoopsguy]

Anyone see a reason not to discuss who to scan in the thread? The wolves are going to have a 40% chance of getting Danny tonight and that order will be going in regardless of who he intends to scan.

[RendeR]

Well there's been a lot of contention between Alan and I, I've already been cleared, so lets scan Alan tonight and we can then vote based on that result tomorrow.

[hoopsguy]

Just going to do a quick vote check - not that many posts in this thread.

[hoopsguy]

Here is a quick vote recap. I've covered the votes by the people who are still alive and uncleared. In other words, the people who are potential scan targets for tonight.

DAY 1:
Packer - Chief (28)
Chief - Packer (29)
Path - Alan (66), Hoops (124)
Jackal - Path (111)
Barkeep - Hannibal (wolf)

Note - I initially voted RendeR, switched to Path when following Lathum D1. But my vote was initially on RendeR, who is a cleared good at this point.

DAY 2:
Alan T - Path (173), Hannibal (wolf)
Jackal - Hoops (197)
Path - Alan T (198), Chief (202)
Note - no vote by Packer

[hoopsguy]

OK, looking over those candidates here are my thoughts:
1. Hannibal voted for Alan T yesterday, and was 3rd man on him. Doesn't make sense for Alan to be a wolf, unless the wolves were already preparing to give up one of their own. But in a 2-1 spot, I would be surprised if this was the case.

2. I've got one known bad vote (Jackal) and would have had another if I had not followed Lathum (switched off RendeR). My voting record is poor this game. I know I'm a villager, but I would completely understand being scanned and/or voted off tomorrow if we get no result or a villager.

3. Chief Rum would be my choice to scan. He has votes on two people who are not known at this point in Packer and Path. If he is shown as a wolf it just about 100% clears Path, since he tied the vote on D2 at the end between Path and Alan. The wolves would not push one of their own into this position.

4. PackerFanatic would be my 2nd choice to scan. He gets a little more latitude from me than Chief based on his "no vote" on D2. Wolves generally have more incentive than villagers to vote, since they need to control the majority with their actions. Or use their minority block to protect their own. On this particular day neither one would be true, but I would also suggest that a player who has not been a wolf many times (if ever?) would be more excited about getting a wolf role and as a result be less likely to miss a vote. Kinda thin, but that is how I'm separating Rum/Packer at the moment.

5. I think we learn more about Path through the results of the Chief scan. If Chief is scanned and comes up cleared I would likely look at Packer and Path as the most likely discussion options tomorrow.


Anyway, it is obviously Danny's decision and there is a 40% chance we won't have him around tomorrow to share his findings. But those are my thoughts on the remaining uncleared players right now.

[Danny]

I won't reveal all of my breakdowns, but my thinking has been much the same as Hoopsguy, in fact Chief was my other 40% along with Hannibal last night. He will be on my list tonight again

I'm not overly worried about your votes since I voted the same as you day 2 and considered voting Render day 1 as well. That said, there's only four people I am considering, so there's a chance of you being scanned as well.

I don't really feel specifically strong about anyone at this point, though I would advise strongly that tomorrow not turn into a series of AlanT/Render arguments. Render has been scanned good. There is no indication that a cunning wolf would have been added. Doing so without any kind of new info would be a bit unfair directly after the last game anyway.

I'm not convinced AlanT is good and he will likely be on my scan list. The way AlanT said Hannibal would follow the vote on him and then Hannibal did seemed like it could have been a bit scripted to me. Considering Alan's schecule, I wouldn't rule out him putting himself at a slightly higher risk to improve trust of others.

[Chief Rum]

Terrific catch on the wolf there, Danny.

I have no issue being scanned, as we can always use one more cleared villlager. That said, I would much prefer we catch a wolf, so I hope Danny chose wisely for his other spots.

As for hoops' analysis, pretty solid except for one thing: the part where we also need to scan him. It seems to me the "uncleared list" was missing someone there.

[Danny]

My scan is in.

Hopefully the 60% prevails and I live until morning.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Danny

I won't reveal all of my breakdowns, but my thinking has been much the same as Hoopsguy, in fact Chief was my other 40% along with Hannibal last night. He will be on my list tonight again

I'm not overly worried about your votes since I voted the same as you day 2 and considered voting Render day 1 as well. That said, there's only four people I am considering, so there's a chance of you being scanned as well.

I don't really feel specifically strong about anyone at this point, though I would advise strongly that tomorrow not turn into a series of AlanT/Render arguments. Render has been scanned good. There is no indication that a cunning wolf would have been added. Doing so without any kind of new info would be a bit unfair directly after the last game anyway.

I'm not convinced AlanT is good and he will likely be on my scan list. The way AlanT said Hannibal would follow the vote on him and then Hannibal did seemed like it could have been a bit scripted to me. Considering Alan's schecule, I wouldn't rule out him putting himself at a slightly higher risk to improve trust of others.

I hope you did scan me actually. I can't believe with how waaay out on the ledge that Render has been this game, that it should automatically be assumed there is no cunning wolf in play here.

Remember Render went out of his way to draw as much attention to himself as possible without saying anything what so ever basically. All he did was defend Hannibal and Path, when I had clearly shown where Hannibal was covering for Path.

Path is the correct vote tommorrow, and if he shows up evil, Render is right after him. I don't care what your scan says.. No one plays the way Render has unless you are a wolf that knows you can't be scanned or you just are trying way too hard to hit the home run that you completely skip over all of the logical evidence.

Nothing has changed since the first two days, there is a direct link between Path -> Hannibal, and Render was supporting both of them. I do hope you scanned me. then maybe people would start paying attention to what I have been saying and less attention to I must be bad because I am me or whatever people have been saying with the whole Circular arguement discussion that both Hannibal and Render were trying to use on me.

Anyways, I'm way over tired as I just got in town. Good night!

[Passacaglia]

The villagers wake up to find Danny missing. Danny was the Seer!

[hoopsguy]

Man, it really feels like we have been getting the business from random.org this game.

[hoopsguy]

Chief, I listed myself as #2 on my analysis list. My voting record has been bunk, so I'm fair game for suspicion and that would have included a scan if Danny had been so inclined.

[hoopsguy]

So, looks like we are going to have to do this the hard way. Even though I put Alan on a more elevated trust level than some of the other cleared (Hannibal vote #3) it seems like we are looking in opposite directions for wolves. My preferred order, until someone convinces me otherwise (certainly can be done) would be the following:

1. Chief Rum
2. PackerFanatic
3. Path
4. Alan
5. Me (duh)

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Chief, I listed myself as #2 on my analysis list. My voting record has been bunk, so I'm fair game for suspicion and that would have included a scan if Danny had been so inclined.

I saw that. I was more referring to the post prior to that, where you list votes. But I see now I misread that list, thinking the "uncleared" were on the left of your lists there. But I see now those are the vote targets of the uncleared, while the actual uncleared are on the right. Sorry, misunderstanding on my part.

Personally, I think if I were doing a list like that, I would have shown the uncleared as a list, and just showed their votes to the left, as the necessary information is a little easier to grasp than how you presented it there. But that's just me.

In any case, sorry for the mix up.

[Danny]

Damn, good luck village