Werewolf LXXV - Rise of the Great Old Ones -Students Win!!!!

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Pass, I think it represents a significant consolidation compared to the zero/one folks. I would have consolidated on one of the three candidates if I felt any particular good reason, either in-thread or meta-game, to vote for them.

Your vote itself doesn't really bug me -- I just don't think it's proper to call it a vote for consolidation just because it does slightly (I wouldn't say significant) less to avoid it.

[PurdueBrad]

A lot of people on the block that are not vets. I'm thinking this is happening for a couple reasons. First, the utr wolf has done well in some recent games. Second, the wolves typically target at least a veteran or two the first couple nights so we probably shouldn't off one ourselves. I don't really love any of the choices.

My second vote on Claph was two-fold. First, it was a retaliatory for putting one on me (again, I might add!). Second, I didn't want to spread out the candidates any further. In the lolcat game, wolf or not I played the day one the way I normally would and it damn near got me day one lynched by spreading it out on Cronin. I don't like being the deciding factor day one, wolf or not because there is no skill involved, dumb luck (be it good or bad).

The problem I'm seeing here is the opportunity for HUGE manipulation by the wolves if we even have one in our sights since we're so spread out. I would like to see a lot of these one votes converge on a couple prime candidates (and yeah, I'm tied for second at this point).

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Pass, I think it represents a significant consolidation compared to the zero/one folks. I would have consolidated on one of the three candidates if I felt any particular good reason, either in-thread or meta-game, to vote for them.

I had noticed the quick second vote also. Could be what he said about bad timing but I can get behind that for a day 1 better than the others. I felt the same way about Jackal's vote on PB by the way, but he's not really a candidate right now.

UNVOTE LONESTARGIRL
VOTE EAGLEFAN

[PurdueBrad]

Lets tie it up then

unvote Claphamsa

vote Eaglefan

[PurdueBrad]

I just argued for really tightening things up so let's see what happens from here on out. Plus, frankly, Claph has taken a good number of day one deaths and if my best argument for voting for him is that he voted for me, not the best. At least here, we can break some eggs.

[PurdueBrad]

<-----post-whore since they started counting btw.

[LoneStarGirl]

Okay, three hours to deadline. I am giong to play Sims2 for an hour or two

[LoneStarGirl]

Wait, what the hell... werewolf posts count?? Since when!

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

Wait, what the hell... werewolf posts count?? Since when!

Since just before the move and they still do!

[Alan T]

Updated vote count as of 209:

4) Mccollins - Jetsin06 (142), Telle (176), oliegirl (187), henry296 (191)
4) Eaglefan - Alan T (155), Hoopsguy (197), path12 (203), PurdueBrad (204)
2) PurdueBrad - Claphamsa (141), The Jackal (150)
1) Claphamsa - Render (146)
1) Oliegirl - Mccollins (125)
1) Axxon - Racer (128)
1) Hoopsguy - Eaglefan (136)
1) Path12 - Lonestargirl (185)

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

How many games has mccollins played? If he is as new as I think he is , I wouldn't vote for him... Clap on the other hand thinks he is a pro

mcollins has player 4-5 games, and I never said i was a pro, just said i was experienced.

[Axxon]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Kwhit technically did a pre-check in saying he got his role but before Schmidty officially started the game.

Pass, oliegirl and axxon were all around this morning but all said they had not yet received their roles.

Lonestargirl doesn't usually show up until evening after work, PurdueBrad I don't remember being in thread yet today but he was definitely around for the pre-game chatter.

Chief Rum might not check in at all before the deadline. I never remember which nights he doesn't get here till after 10pm EST, but with today being a short day 1, he'll either get on tonight just before deadline or later after deadline.

Checking in now. Still catching up with the thread. Had to get some sleep, as racer so cleverly noticed I'd missed some last night, grr.

I'm an engineering student here at Misk U. Racer is either going to be an asset or one of our cleverest foes. Anyway, he voted for me so

VOTE RACER

for now but it may change after I've caught up with the thread.

[Axxon]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

No, I wish I had though. It's a very cool site. The Cthulhu mythos has been around since the 1920s.

Here's more info about the universe this game is set in:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cthulhu_mythos

I highly recommend reading some books or short stories by H..P Lovecraft (and other writers that use the mythos). They're trippy, freaky, and awesome.

I agree with that. Loves me some Lovecraft mythos. Used to GM some CoC games back in the day. Fun, fun times.

[RendeR]

UNVOTE CLAPHAMSA

VOTE PURDEUBRAD


Lets make this a 3 horse race and see what fur flies at the end.

[EagleFan]

Wow, where's the love PB? I changed my normal day one vote to not vote for you.

As I said before, and the time stamps will back me up, I voted hoops not knowing there was another vote about to show up for him. I do find it a little suspicious about the run on me. I really suck as a wolf but do well as a villager (I love trying to figure these things out) so I would look closely at those with votes on me. I wouldn't be too surprised to see at least one wolf there.

Anyhoo, I have to head out for a bit. I'll be back on later to see how this plays out.

[claphamsa]

anyone recomened a good book by lovecraft? need a new read

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Wow, where's the love PB? I changed my normal day one vote to not vote for you.

Sorry Eagle, I wanted to push this a bit and see what will come of it. If it helps, if all things were equal, you wouldn't be my choice but the person I would put a vote on has zero right now.

RendeR trying to push up a third candidate (me or otherwise) is interesting as well, as it gives the wolves multiple options for manipulation.

[Axxon]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

anyone recomened a good book by lovecraft? need a new read

You can read a bunch of his short stories online.

http://www.dagonbytes.com/thelibrary/lovecraft/

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Sorry Eagle, I wanted to push this a bit and see what will come of it. If it helps, if all things were equal, you wouldn't be my choice but the person I would put a vote on has zero right now.

RendeR trying to push up a third candidate (me or otherwise) is interesting as well, as it gives the wolves multiple options for manipulation.

Would you rather we only have two candidates? I tihnk its far easier for the wolves to push to villagers into the blocks on early days than it would be for them to push three.

I realy have nothing on you at all other than you has votes and mine was wasted on clap. Pick one of the other two and I'll move my vote there if you really think 2 is better than 3.

Personally I think three is better when it comes to crunch time, as it forces the wolves to move more often to maintain a solid voting block, but thats just my opinion.

[PurdueBrad]

Hmmm, I see your idea of making the wolves work harder for a solid voting block. I was thinking with two candidates you basically lock them in to making a choice giving us a record (albeit a long one to look at with people split among two). A third candidate isn't such a bad idea, beyond that though, it's a bit much. Your method does help minimize the number of voters we have to look at on each candidate and might force wolf movement. I still think (although am doubting it) I prefer two candidates but I see where you want to go with three.

[Axxon]

Oh, and it's not one of his most recommended but I've always liked "The Picture in the House".

[Passacaglia]

I agree with RendeR -- I think three is a good number, too.

VOTE PURDUEBRAD

[PurdueBrad]

4) Mccollins - Jetsin06 (142), Telle (176), oliegirl (187), henry296 (191)
4) Eaglefan - Alan T (155), Hoopsguy (197), path12 (203), PurdueBrad (204)
4) PurdueBrad - Claphamsa (141), The Jackal (150), RendeR (214), Passacaglia (222)
1) Oliegirl - Mccollins (125)
1) Axxon - Racer (128)
1) Hoopsguy - Eaglefan (136)
1) Path12 - Lonestargirl (185)
1) Racer- Axxon (212)

[PurdueBrad]

My assumption here is that I'll pick up Eaglefan on me and Mccollins will likely go Eaglefan, making it 5-5 between the two of us. From there...we'll see.

[Alan T]

I think a third candidate can be used for both good and bad. The point of having it close and not being a run away is to force the wolves to commit to try to save one of their own. You can do that regardless of a 2nd or a 3rd candidate.

A Third candidate can help especially as you have a greater chance that one of three is a wolf than one of two.. however it also can hurt as we saw in a recent game when the first two candidate choices were wolves and a third choice came out of the woodwork to try to save both of them.

I see a similar scenerio here as I saw in that one.. neither Eaglefan or Mccollins has their vote on each other, a third candidate is brought up with sudden momentum to bring an alternate choice to the mix.... In this case, I am not sure what a third choice is accomplishing unless both Mccollins and Eaglefan are bad.

I think in this case it is better to ignore PurdueBrad, and lynch one of the other two. If one of them does end up a wolf, I think it is a better than 50/50 chance that the other one is possibly a wolf as is Render.

[Alan T]

I spy Mrs.Schmidty. Welcome to the board! Watch out for Path12!

[Passacaglia]

Welcome, Mrs. Schmidty! Are you from West Michigan, also? Represent!

[Mrs. Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I spy Mrs.Schmidty. Welcome to the board! Watch out for Path12!

Hi guys! I'm trying to get caught up on all the posts, but there's so many I'll run out of time before the deadline!

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Mrs. Schmidty

Hi guys! I'm trying to get caught up on all the posts, but there's so many I'll run out of time before the deadline!

Just skip everything hoops and claphamsa say. That'll save you a lot of time, and you really won't miss anything.

[Mrs. Schmidty]

Alright, before I get totally engrossed in the game I'll introduce myself a bit! No, I'm not from Michigan, originally I'm from California. I think that I'm officially a Washingtonian though since I've been here for pretty much the last 20 years.
I work full time in a photo lab and photography would be one of my biggest hobbies. I'm stubborn as hell as I'm sure some of you already know (ha!) but am also pretty upbeat (I sound like I"m filling out a personal add!).

Oh ya, and I'm "hawt", but not "flat!"

Now...back to reading and trying to figure out who to send packin'!

[LoneStarGirl]

Mrs. Schmidty sounds fun. Has everybody checked in and voted besides Mrs. Schmidty?

[Mrs. Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Telle

PurdueBrad, KWhit, Chief Rum, Axxon, LoneStarGirl, Pass, oliegirl, Mrs Schidty

Nice! lol I actually called my daughter's school and said that I was "Lily Shits mom" I knew the day would come...

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

Mrs. Schmidty sounds fun. Has everybody checked in and voted besides Mrs. Schmidty?

Did I miss KWhit checking in and voting?

[Mrs. Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Mrs. Schmidty

Nice! lol I actually called my daughter's school and said that I was "Lily Shits mom" I knew the day would come...

Oops! Meant to point out how Telle spelled my name, but quoted the entire name list. I'm a simpleton thrown into the mix with the experts.

[LoneStarGirl]

hmmm or chief rum? I just counted and only 15 have voted... Add Kwhit, Mrs. Schmidty, Chief and then two others

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Just skip everything hoops and claphamsa say. That'll save you a lot of time, and you really won't miss anything.

I cannont say i disagree with this...

[PurdueBrad]

I count 17, am I wrong?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

I count 17, am I wrong?

I have 17 also. This is what I have:


4) Mccollins - Jetsin06 (142), Telle (176), oliegirl (187), henry296 (191)
4) Eaglefan - Alan T (155), Hoopsguy (197), path12 (203), PurdueBrad (204)
4) PurdueBrad - Claphamsa (141), The Jackal (150), Render (214), Passacaglia (222)
1) Oliegirl - Mccollins (125)
1) Axxon - Racer (128)
1) Hoopsguy - Eaglefan (136)
1) Path12 - Lonestargirl (185)
1) Racer - Axxon (212)


No vote: Kwhit, Chief Rum, Mrs.Schmidty

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I think a third candidate can be used for both good and bad. The point of having it close and not being a run away is to force the wolves to commit to try to save one of their own. You can do that regardless of a 2nd or a 3rd candidate.

A Third candidate can help especially as you have a greater chance that one of three is a wolf than one of two.. however it also can hurt as we saw in a recent game when the first two candidate choices were wolves and a third choice came out of the woodwork to try to save both of them.

I see a similar scenerio here as I saw in that one.. neither Eaglefan or Mccollins has their vote on each other, a third candidate is brought up with sudden momentum to bring an alternate choice to the mix.... In this case, I am not sure what a third choice is accomplishing unless both Mccollins and Eaglefan are bad.

I think in this case it is better to ignore PurdueBrad, and lynch one of the other two. If one of them does end up a wolf, I think it is a better than 50/50 chance that the other one is possibly a wolf as is Render.

I haven't done the math, but the probability of there being one wolf in a group of three is substantially higher then there being two wolves in a group of three.

[Mrs. Schmidty]

VOTE JETSIN06

Apparently random.org doesn't like you today...

[PurdueBrad]

Well guys and gals, I hate to do this with my head on the chopping block but I unfortunately (for my liver) am going to an all-you-can-drink event at one of the college bars in town. Since there is a good chance I may be lynched, look at these two people: Jackal and RendeR.

I have two others I'm very curious about as well but since their votes are not currently on me, I will keep their names to myself to avoid drawing out any more attention.

I'll try to check in one more time, in about 15 minutes, before we leave.

[Racer]

So based on your analysis, I think it would be better to go with a group of three then it would be to go with a group of two.

[claphamsa]

how could you have names on your list alreadt???????????????

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Racer

So based on your analysis, I think it would be better to go with a group of three then it would be to go with a group of two.

Only if we are talking about probability alone. That is only one piece of the picture though.. The other piece is what do you learn from the info?

Lets say PurdueBrad is lynched and ends up being a villager.. what do we learn? Ok.. well maybe Mccollins or EagleFan or both are wolves.. so we then lynch one of them.. or do we go after both and spend three days on what might be just three villagers.. if PurdueBrad is a wolf, what do we learn about the others? Well not much about mccollins or Eaglefan as of yet.. we feel a bit better about Render, but thats it..

If we go with the two approach, and lynch one and they are a wolf, what have we learned? It makes a bunch of people as possible next suspects.. if one of them is a villager, then it doesn't really clear Render, but it helps drop some of the suspicion he may have otherwise.. You have to consider other people with roles also, who will they target for their actions tonight based on what we find out.. etc...

Don't get me wrong, I've brought a third person into lynch situations myself but there were subtle differences that I mentioned earlier.. such as why hasn't mccollins or Eaglefan voted for self preservation earlier? Why was a third candidate brought into the picture suddenly out of the blue with two quick votes? It feels just like when purduebrad and Hoops were both wolves previously and hesitant to vote for each other.. they ended up getting out of that without a lynch.. It just feels alot like that scenerio happening again here.. Just too many other issues that just seem off so far about this vote.

I think as of right now I'm sticking with my vote here as this most recent action makes me feel good about where I am.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Just skip everything hoops and claphamsa say. That'll save you a lot of time, and you really won't miss anything.

Here I was thinking I was on good behavior so far this game, keeping my post count down. Then I go look and I'm 2nd among players, 2 back of Alan.

Sure, Alan's posts have value but mine are worthless. (sniff) Tomorrow's vote is looking pretty clear-cut right about now.

[Axxon]

UNVOTE RACER
VOTE PURDUEBRAD

[path12]

Originally Posted by Axxon

I'm an engineering student here at Misk U. Racer is either going to be an asset or one of our cleverest foes.

Why do you say this?

[Mrs. Schmidty]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

how could you have names on your list alreadt???????????????

To whom is this directed to?

[Axxon]

Originally Posted by path12

Why do you say this?

Because of our exchange earlier. Racer is a very good player and we just got through a game together. That means he's going to be a great help to us like he was to his side in that game or he's going to be a dangerous wolf.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Mrs. Schmidty

To whom is this directed to?

+1. I was about to post the same thing.