NFL 2021 Regular Season Thread

[thesloppy]

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

Seems like the 17-game season got lost in the shuffle a bit.

Just saw today the Bears will end the 16 game schedule era without a 4,000 yard passer or 30 TD season.

[JPhillips]

I'd hate it, but I think Fields to Pitt makes a lot of sense for both sides.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Just saw today the Bears will end the 16 game schedule era without a 4,000 yard passer or 30 TD season.

Wow.

I would have guessed that Cutler would have hit those numbers a time or two while putting up bad efficiency stats.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I'd hate it, but I think Fields to Pitt makes a lot of sense for both sides.

He would be great, but no way that he lasts to their pick or they move up to get him. They need to spend the next two drafts adding to their offensive line. It will be boring, but they've neglected it for too long. I would not be surprised with 3-4 in the first three rounds over the next two years. The last first round OL they took was in 2012 (David Decastro) and in 2010 (Pouncey) before that. Those are also the only offensive first rounders that they have drafted since 2008. Steelers love some first round linebackers and defensive players.

[pantera]

Originally Posted by molson

Jimmy G to the Pats would be so much fun but apparently is SF is willing to keep him for a year, and the Pats no longer have unlimited cap space. I'm sure that's posturing to some degree, but I hope something can be worked out. It is meant to be.

Edit: Also, I don't understand NFL contracts, but apparently cutting Jimmy G this year makes a lot of sense for SF. They'd only have $2.8 million in dead cap space, where if they keep him, obviously he has that massive contract. So maybe that's his clearest path to New England. I don't know where else he would be a starter. There's not a lot of teams he'd be a clear upgrade for. I understand the appeal of having a "veteran" QB when you draft a rookie but, do you really want or need one with a $25 million cap hit?

I just saw a post from djbayko at sonsofsamhorn.net It listed all of the QBs who were top 5 draft picks since 2001. Only 2 out of 27 didn't start games in their 1st year. 19 started over 10 games. So if SF keeps Jimmy G as their starter, it would be a notable exception.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

He would be great, but no way that he lasts to their pick or they move up to get him. They need to spend the next two drafts adding to their offensive line. It will be boring, but they've neglected it for too long. I would not be surprised with 3-4 in the first three rounds over the next two years. The last first round OL they took was in 2012 (David Decastro) and in 2010 (Pouncey) before that. Those are also the only offensive first rounders that they have drafted since 2008. Steelers love some first round linebackers and defensive players.

I really think Fields is going to fall. He's been inconsistent and the weight of past OSU QB busts will drag him down.

[Atocep]

It's almost impossible for there not to be something to this now. I doubt all of the allegations are true and I'm sure there may be come consensual stuff that's been piled on here, but it does seem like Watson has a serious problem.

A massage therapist's story of Deshaun Watson's inappropriate behavior - Sports Illustrated

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by Atocep

It's almost impossible for there not to be something to this now. I doubt all of the allegations are true and I'm sure there may be come consensual stuff that's been piled on here, but it does seem like Watson has a serious problem.

A massage therapist's story of Deshaun Watson's inappropriate behavior - Sports Illustrated

With 19 lawsuits now or something close to that, there really is too much smoke here with seriously suspecting there is some fire.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Dola

I just read that SI piece. That's gross. What the fuck, DeShaun Watson?

[bhlloy]

Sounds like he's just trying to pay them off which will presumably prevent a criminal investigation so will be very interesting to see what the NFL does here.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I really think Fields is going to fall. He's been inconsistent and the weight of past OSU QB busts will drag him down.

I'm feeling that, too... but "fall" out of the once presumed top two/three to 7,8,9 is one thing. Ten more picks feels like a lot. Could happen, though, I suppose.

[JPhillips]

If he gets past Carolina I think he could drop all the way to Pittsburgh.

[albionmoonlight]

I don't think he's getting past Carolina. That new owner was willing to trade the farm for a new QB. If one falls to them at 8, they will talk themselves into drafting him.

I can hear the conversations now: "Aaron Rogers was a top 2 pick who fell, and look at him."

[JPhillips]

Will they take Lance, though?

I went back to the 1990 draft and only once have four QBs been picked in the top ten picks. I think it's hard for GMs to grab the fourth or fifth best QB when they have the option of the best or second best WR, CB, T, DE, etc. If it really goes QB for the first three picks, it wouldn't surprise me to see no QBs for the rest of the top ten.

[miked]

Is Fields that good that he can somehow do better than any other OSU QB in history? This is not a school known for sending out good pro QBs.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by miked

Is Fields that good that he can somehow do better than any other OSU QB in history? This is not a school known for sending out good pro QBs.

Prior to Watson and Lawrence Clemson had Charlie Whitehurst so I don't think you can fault Fields for Urban Meyer and Jim Tressel not developing QBs. He's hands down the most talented QB to come out of there IMO. I'd take him over any QB in this draft not named Lawrence.

[Ksyrup]

I don't fault any school in any sport for the way professional talent evaluators over or under-value their prospects. No one is holding a gun to a team's head to pick anyone.

[albionmoonlight]

In case anyone was wondering whether Chase Daniel was still being played millions of dollars to play a game:

Making it official today!! P-Man is super pumped that Daddy is going to be playing for the @Chargers! #GoChargers #BoltUp pic.twitter.com/kpYg4p8Sx2

— Chase Daniel (@ChaseDaniel) March 30, 2021

#Hero

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I don't fault any school in any sport for the way professional talent evaluators over or under-value their prospects. No one is holding a gun to a team's head to pick anyone.

2 different thoughts here

1) you're right about the schools not being to blame

2) I dunno, there IS at times a gun-to-the-head of teams about certain prospects. It's just that the fan base is usually holding it.

[Vince, Pt. II]

So apparently the lawyer representing the women against DeShaun Watson is refusing to turn information over to the police, because he criticized the former police chief during his failed mayoral run and because Watson's lawyer has a son involved in the police department.

Could this situation get any more sketchy?

[molson]

I wonder if keeping all this away from the police keeps the leverage for a settlement. If Watson pays everybody off, and they have to keep quiet forever, I'm not sure the NFL can do anything to him. I know the NFL isn't bound by waiting for criminal charges or convictions, and shouldn't be, but usually they at least have police reports and interviews with the accusers to base a suspension on. Have they ever disciplined someone based solely on allegations in a civil lawsuit, which have no form of adversarial testing whatsoever?

Once the accusers talk to the police, or the NFL, their silence becomes less valuable.

It seems like this lawyer has a bit of a reputation, you can smell the snark in these articles.

I hope any legitimate victims are on the right wagon here. Selfish lawyers can be very convincing, and can create the illusion that they are working in the client's best interest.

[albionmoonlight]

I might be mis-remembering, but wasn't Big Ben never criminally charged?

[molson]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I might be mis-remembering, but wasn't Big Ben never criminally charged?

He was not charged, but prosecutors reviewed the case so there would have probably been police reports. I don't know if the accuser talked to the NFL.

Ezekiel Elliott was never charged, but the NFL had police reports and an an accuser interview with the league to work with.

I don't know if the NFL would or could act without even those things.

Though at some point the Texans have to make a decision whether they want him around. It seems the most rational thing is to have him sit out 2021, either via team suspension/cut or the NFL exempt list, and see where we are with this stuff next year.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by molson

It seems like this lawyer has a bit of a reputation, you can smell the snark in these articles.

After doing the required reading, I'm not sure anyone could possibly snark enough about this guy.

Former head of the local (D), he ran for mayor of Houston against another (D) by (at varying times): backing Trump, then disavowing Trump, then donating $500k to Trump and getting a last minute robocall from Don Jr. All in the span of a single election.

Aaaaand then got trounced in the (technically non-partisan) runoff.

And that's just his personal political career.

There's also his ability to complete a 1 year DUI rehab course in 8 months ... shortly after making a sizable contribution to the sitting DA at the time.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Originally Posted by molson

I hope any legitimate victims are on the right wagon here. Selfish lawyers can be very convincing, and can create the illusion that they are working in the client's best interest.

Yup. I can't imagine how crushing it would be to have a legitimate claim in all this and have it get swept away because of a skeezy lawyer.

[NobodyHere]

18 massage therapists come to Deshaun Watson's defense

I don't know what the truth is here other than Deshaun sees a LOT of message therapists.

[Carman Bulldog]

Originally Posted by molson

He was not charged, but prosecutors reviewed the case so there would have probably been police reports. I don't know if the accuser talked to the NFL.

Ezekiel Elliott was never charged, but the NFL had police reports and an an accuser interview with the league to work with.

I don't know if the NFL would or could act without even those things.

Though at some point the Texans have to make a decision whether they want him around. It seems the most rational thing is to have him sit out 2021, either via team suspension/cut or the NFL exempt list, and see where we are with this stuff next year.

I was under the impression that you needed to be under criminal investigation to be placed on the Commissioners Exempt list.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Carman Bulldog

I was under the impression that you needed to be under criminal investigation to be placed on the Commissioners Exempt list.

Nope.

From a Yahoo article summing up the possibilities (bolding is mine for emphasis)

And for this reason, the 16 pending civil lawsuits against Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson could lead him to be removed from NFL activities at any moment this offseason or suspended entirely — or not punished at all. Any of these outcomes could materialize without a single legal outcome tied to Watson. Essentially, nothing could change, yet the NFL could act (or not act) based entirely on the merits of what it finds or the preponderance of evidence it produces.

[Ksyrup]

Preponderance of the evidence ... it's a battle of numbers!

"Yeah, there's 21 lawsuits against me but here's 22 massage therapists who have my back (not my front)!"

[Toddzilla]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

18 massage therapists come to Deshaun Watson's defense

Just people looking for a little fame and a payday.

[albionmoonlight]

Through various coincidences of timing, I had a lot of opportunity to listen to podcasts and otherwise consume draft content, specifically about the big 3 QBs. I will, so I can come back to laugh at my wrongness later, give my current thoughts on them.

TIER 1

1) Trevor Lawrence--The guy who's been the consensus #1 overall pick since his first game as a true freshman is the best QB in the class. Go figure. Perhaps the best testament to just how much of a no-brainer this pick is is the fact that no one is really even talking about it. People can't even pretend that anything other that him going #1 to Jax makes sense.

2) Justin Fields--His stock is falling. But I don't see it at all. He's a Taysom Hill who can throw. He's a Lamar Jackson with size. He's got all the tools you want, and he wins at a top-5 program. The buzz is that teams are concerned about processing speed, but several people who watch film say that the tOSU offense is designed to have late-developing routes and reads. So are we really going to penalize this guy for running his team's offense? I think that if it were a team other than the Jets at #2, there wouldn't be an issue of him dropping past that pick.

TIER 2

3) Trey Lance--I really like him. Super smart. Physical tools. Not quite at the level of the top two above. But I'm a big fan. The best thing for him would be to end up on a team like the Falcons, Patriots, Steelers, Washington, etc. where he can sit behind a vet for a year and then take over next season. There's some smart teams on that list I just gave, so I'd not be shocked for him to end up in a place like that.

TIER 3

4) Zach Wilson--Where I differ from the consensus the most, I think. The dude is small, but he does not have the elite speed/agility skills to keep from getting hit. I could see a lot of weeks where he is "Questionable--ribs" I also admit to some prejudice here. He has the perfect QB name. And he's got the golden boy QB look. But it's all just a little too perfect for me. You know the last guy I thought would succeed because he had the perfect name and look for a star QB? Mark Sanchez.

TIER 4

5) Mac Jones--Apparently NFL teams are (and have always been) higher on Mac Jones than the fans and media. Well, I'm a fan who gets my info from the media, so I'm not that high on him. He's Andy Dalton. He's Teddy Bridgewater. He's Jared Goff. He seems like he is set up for a perfectly fine 10+ year career as a decent starter or overqualified backup. Maybe he has that one season where it all comes together and he makes a Pro Bowl. I don't think that he'll be a *bad* QB. But I certainly don't see him with franchise QB potential like the other 4 on this list.

And, of course, because it's the NFL Draft and LOL and no one knows anything, Kyle Trask will probably end up being the best QB in the entire class.

[Atocep]

Personally, I'd bump Lance down to 5 and move Wilson and Jones each up a spot. The accuracy and ball placement issues Lance has are things that scare me off of QBs and aren't always fixable. If he lands in the right situation with the right coaching staff he could be really good but his floor is easily the lowest of the top 5 qbs.

I 100% agree on Fields. I think he's good enough to go number 1 overall in most drafts.

[Lathum]

I don't think Fields turns out well. He played with far and away the best talent in his conference. Rarely did he have to look past his first option and always had time to throw.

I think Wilson has the potential to be the best of this bunch. He makes some amazing throws and can make plays happen. The only problem is he likely gets drafted by the Jets, so he will be DOA.

[Butter]

Even when Fields had time to throw he was taking a lot of unnecessary sacks. The one game he didn't was the "revenge game" against Clemson. Don't think he applies that same fire or gameplan to everyone in the NFL. I just don't see him being successful either. I also think the comparison to Lamar Jackson is not valid because Fields doesn't have the top end on field speed of Jackson, no matter what the 40 time says, nor his elusiveness.

[Thomkal]

I liked what I saw of Wilson upclose when he played Coastal Carolina, but who knows if it translates to the pros until he gets there and shows if he can handle. Recent drafts are full of highly drafted QB's busting. Someone will take a chance on him in the 1st round though.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Personally, I'd bump Lance down to 5 and move Wilson and Jones each up a spot. The accuracy and ball placement issues Lance has are things that scare me off of QBs and aren't always fixable. If he lands in the right situation with the right coaching staff he could be really good but his floor is easily the lowest of the top 5 qbs.

I 100% agree on Fields. I think he's good enough to go number 1 overall in most drafts.

Does Lance have accuracy issues? I've only ever seen highlights not full NDSU games, but it at least seems like he throws a really nice deep ball (albeit, yes, it's his highlights), and his completion % in that NDSU offense (66.9%) is higher than Carson Wentz (64.1%) or Easton Stick (61.0%)

[BishopMVP]

Btw if you want to talk about a mobile QB who has ball placement issues but I still really like as a 10 year backup & someone who will have some random huge games as a fill in starter it's Ian Book. If we had a more defined starter I'd love him in the 5th/6th round as a semi-developmental guy that could easily step in & give the team a spark if he's forced into 2-3 games as soon as this year.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Does Lance have accuracy issues? I've only ever seen highlights not full NDSU games, but it at least seems like he throws a really nice deep ball (albeit, yes, it's his highlights), and his completion % in that NDSU offense (66.9%) is higher than Carson Wentz (64.1%) or Easton Stick (61.0%)

FootballOutsiders does a good job of highlighting his accuracy issues. He's young, so they're likely fixable but I do think it lowers his floor.

Futures: NDSU QB Trey Lance | Football Outsiders

JT O'Sullivan breaks some of his film down and does a good job of showing how much the offense can make things easy for him. Overall, he's impressed with his ability but has him below the other top qbs in this class because of consistency issues. He has him as possibly the highest ceiling out of this class, but also the lowest floor.

[Ksyrup]

I didn't watch that video so I don't know if Josh Allen is name-checked, but does his ability to drastically improve his accuracy out of nowhere help Lance? As I recall, it was almost entirely mechanics/footwork.

[JonInMiddleGA]

[quote=albionmoonlight;3332385]

I'll do these, just so you're not on the limb alone

Tier 1: Lawrence
Tier 2: Err ... none?
Tier 3: Jones, Wilson (defining this as somebody's starter at some point, not due to injury)
Tier 4: Fields
Tier 5: Lance (who I'd put below Trask for sure)

As long shots go, I can also see Book being a 3rd QB just as described up the thread. But since he's been mentioned, I'd say that if a QB Whisperer could fix him, K.J. Costello might be a guy who ends up with an unintended start or two someday after being the 3rd guy in the QB room for a while.

[rjolley]

What about Mond out of Texas A&M and Mills out of Stanford? I've read a bit about them being on a level with Trask, so maybe 2nd or 3rd round picks in this draft.

Mond seems like he could develop into a solid starter over time if he can improve his decision making. I wouldn't mind seeing the Bears bring in him or Trask to groom for the future. It would be an acceptable risk.

[BYU 14]

Jets trading Darnold to Carolina for picks, which dooms, err, ensure Wilson to New York.

[BYU 14]

[quote=JonInMiddleGA;3332425]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I'll do these, just so you're not on the limb alone

Tier 1: Lawrence
Tier 2: Err ... none?
Tier 3: Jones, Wilson (defining this as somebody's starter at some point, not due to injury)
Tier 4: Fields
Tier 5: Lance (who I'd put below Trask for sure)

As long shots go, I can also see Book being a 3rd QB just as described up the thread. But since he's been mentioned, I'd say that if a QB Whisperer could fix him, K.J. Costello might be a guy who ends up with an unintended start or two someday after being the 3rd guy in the QB room for a while.

i would put Wilson at tier 2, only for the subtle things I see on all 22 film, mainly release and how fast he processes his reads, which is the biggest hurdle going from college to the NFL. He is actually better than Lawrence in this regard, just not at his level in all the other metrics. And the size thing is overplayed, he measured just over 6'2 214 and 9.5 hand size at his pro day, same size as Mac Jones and 10 pounds lighter than Fields and Lance, which doesn't make that much of a difference taking NFL hits. He also moves within the pocket as well as any of them.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by rjolley

Mond seems like he could develop into a solid starter over time if he can improve his decision making. .

That's a case where I just don't know if the improvement can be big enough.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by BYU 14

Jets trading Darnold to Carolina for picks, which dooms, err, ensure Wilson to New York.

Speaking of Draft Busts...

[JPhillips]

That's a much better haul for Darnold than I would have expected.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

That's a much better haul for Darnold than I would have expected.

+1

Also makes me think the 49ers aren't crazy if they expect a #1 for Garoppolo.

[molson]

Teams are getting faster in evaluating QB busts. It's like FOF when it's immediately clear that a guy is not going to work out, so you dump him and move on.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by rjolley

What about Mond out of Texas A&M and Mills out of Stanford? I've read a bit about them being on a level with Trask, so maybe 2nd or 3rd round picks in this draft.

Mond seems like he could develop into a solid starter over time if he can improve his decision making. I wouldn't mind seeing the Bears bring in him or Trask to groom for the future. It would be an acceptable risk.

Which Aggie QB will have the better NFL career: Manziel or Mond