World Politics

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

That would be the requirement for the U.S.. If I am China, that guarantee is based on the influence I believe I have on Iran and Yemen. If China has that influence then the only way Chinese boots are on the ground is if the West has boots on the ground in an aggressive posture.

Now whether it is wise for China to believe that they would ever have that sort of influence is another discussion entirely. They are taking their turn at trying to bring peace to the Middle East. They have the benefit of being seen as a neutral party by most of the parties involved and has been willing to invest (bribe?) in the region without outwardly interfering in regional affairs.

To be fair, "bribe" is what we do as well.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

If I am China, that guarantee is based on the influence I believe I have on Iran and Yemen. If China has that influence then the only way Chinese boots are on the ground is if the West has boots on the ground in an aggressive posture.

I do not know the real influence China has with Iran. I suspect its not to that level, or at least I've not read about it. FWIW, I know their arms sales to Iran has dropped off considerably since 00s so that's probably an indication.

They are taking their turn at trying to bring peace to the Middle East. They have the benefit of being seen as a neutral party by most of the parties involved and has been willing to invest (bribe?) in the region without outwardly interfering in regional affairs.

Yup, I think this is true and they are definitely more neutral than the US, no doubt.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I do not know the real influence China has with Iran. I suspect its not to that level, or at least I've not read about it. FWIW, I know their arms sales to Iran has dropped off considerably since 00s so that's probably an indication.


Yup, I think this is true and they are definitely more neutral than the US, no doubt.

Their arms sales may be down but that is not the route China seems to be going down. China is Iran's top trading partner getting about 36% of Iran's total exports. China is two percent behind the U.S. (14 to 12) of the Saudi exports. China has been the biggest buyer of oil for both countries. There's more.

China Regional Snapshot: Middle East and North Africa - Committee on Foreign Affairs.

Now maybe China is doing this exclusively for capitalist reasons to make money for the Communist Party. Or maybe China thinks this investment will lead to long term goodwill and yes influence down the road. This has worked for a superpower nation or two in the past.

[Edward64]

The US-SA-Israeli stuff is picking up more MSM reporting now, all below within last 12 hours.

I haven't read through all of them but good to see more reporting. Gist is Bibi may have some resistance but no idea how serious. thehill.com talks more about Democrat concerns/demands for Palestinians and the security agreement stuff.

Access to this page has been denied

Just a moment...

Senior Democrats warn Joe Biden on push to normalise Saudi-Israel relations | Financial Times

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/04/u...democrats.html

Israel looking to limit scope of Palestinian component of Saudi normalization deal | The Times of Israel

https://www.defensenews.com/congress...security-pact/

[Edward64]

Below is from Aug 30 Axios article and details what the Palestinians want. So apparently they have had some input into what's been going on.

Just a moment...

The PA provided the list of possible deliverables to Saudi Arabia earlier this year — a sign that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and his aides have decided to take a pragmatic approach to the U.S.-led talks, which could see Israel-Saudi normalization, to avoid a clash with Riyadh and leverage their position to get as much as they can from any deal.
:
Senior Abbas adviser Hussein al-Sheikh, who is leading the consultations on the issue with Riyadh, gave Saudi national security adviser Musaed bin Mohammed al-Aiban the list of possible deliverables three months ago,

The are:

The Palestinians want Israel to agree to change the status of parts of Area C in the occupied West Bank, where Israel currently has full control, to Area B, where the PA has civilian control and Israel maintains security control.

Seems reasonable (e.g. worth it) to me

The Palestinians' list also proposes the U.S. finally reopen its consulate in Jerusalem, which was closed by the Trump administration. President Biden vowed to reopen the consulate when he took office, but it remains closed amid Israeli opposition.

Seems reasonable to me

The Palestinians' list also proposes the U.S. finally reopen its consulate in Jerusalem, which was closed by the Trump administration. President Biden vowed to reopen the consulate when he took office, but it remains closed amid Israeli opposition.

Seems reasonable to me

The PA's list includes steps that it wants to be taken at the UN related to the recognition of Palestine as a member state.

If this is just documenting the steps vs starting & doing ... seems reasonable to me. If it's the latter, it'll take forever to do and therefore not reasonable IMO

The Palestinians also asked Saudi Arabia to resume funding to the Palestinian Authority, which was halted several years ago. The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that the Saudis are ready to do that.

Seems reasonable to me

The Palestinians want Israel to agree to at least some of these steps upfront and agree to resume Israeli-Palestinian final status negotiations over several years under a clear timetable, the sources said.

Seems reasonable to me. Setting timetable is good. I think fair chance though the process will end up stalemate again.

The Axios article's list of demands seem relatively "easy" to agree to. I'm not convinced there isn't more. Another article said the US senators were also pushing for

The measures the senators listed are significant, including a commitment by Israel not to annex any of the West Bank and a halt on the construction and expansion of Israeli settlements. These actions, the senators wrote, would help achieve Mr. Biden’s stated objective of “preserving the option of a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.”

My guess is this will be harder for Bibi to sell but ... seems reasonable to me.

[miami_fan]

An American tourist is arrested for smashing ancient Roman statues at a museum in Israel | AP News

I have never heard of Jerusalem Syndrome.

Instead, Kaufman said, the tourist was suffering from a mental disorder that psychiatrists have labeled the Jerusalem syndrome. The condition — a form of disorientation believed to be induced by the religious magnetism of the city, which is sacred to Christians, Jews and Muslims — is said to cause foreign pilgrims to believe they are figures from the Bible.

Evidently, there are tensions between two of the religious groups in Israel.

Israeli police arrest suspects for spitting near Christian pilgrims and churches in Jerusalem | AP News

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Evidently, there are tensions between two of the religious groups in Israel.

Understatement of the year ...

I'm guessing Hamas didn't like not being invited to the threesome Israeli-SA-US party.

Here is what Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in his first public comments since Hamas' surprise attack early Saturday morning.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

I have never heard of Jerusalem Syndrome.

Me neither. Interesting. I'll have to watch myself if/when I visited Jerusalem (on the bucket list)

Jerusalem syndrome - Wikipedia

Jerusalem syndrome is a group of mental phenomena involving the presence of religiously themed obsessive ideas, delusions, or other psychosis-like experiences that are triggered by a visit to the city of Jerusalem. It is not endemic to one single religion or denomination but has affected Jews, Christians, and Muslims of many different backgrounds. It is not listed as a recognised condition in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders or the International Classification of Diseases.

The best known, although not the most prevalent, manifestation of Jerusalem syndrome is the phenomenon whereby a person who seems previously balanced and devoid of any signs of psychopathology becomes psychotic after arriving in Jerusalem.[not verified in body] The psychosis is characterised by an intense religious theme and typically resolves to full recovery after a few weeks or after being removed from the area.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Me neither. Interesting. I'll have to watch myself if/when I visited Jerusalem (on the bucket list)

Jerusalem syndrome - Wikipedia

Sounds like a bunch of religious hocus pocus to me.

[GrantDawg]

Almost 200 killed and 1,600 wounded in the retaliatory strikes in Gaza. This is going to end up being massive with the chances of retaliation going beyond Israel's borders pretty high.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Almost 200 killed and 1,600 wounded in the retaliatory strikes in Gaza. This is going to end up being massive with the chances of retaliation going beyond Israel's borders pretty high.

Yes indeed. 2000 to 3000 missiles launched and major ground combat.

[Edward64]

What a mess.

I'm sure this will set back the Israeli-SA normalization process but hopefully not too long.

[JPhillips]

The Palestinians have legitimate grievances, but these actions are a declaration of war and in a war the Israelis will greatly and rightly punish the Palestinians. Not only are today's actions evil, they are going to be incredibly counter-productive to their cause.

[GrantDawg]

So far, I have seen posts blaming Biden for the Iranian hostage money funding Hamas and this attack, Biden's support of Isreal causing this attack, Russians supporting Iran and Hamas causing the attack, and Russia supporting Isreal causing the attack
In other words, whoever you hate supports whichever side you dislike and are at fault.

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[Edward64]

Also, that Bibi knew this was going to and allowed it to happen.

[JPhillips]

The Bibi conspiracy theories are ridiculous, but there are serious questions as to how this was missed and how military outposts got overrun so easily.

I don't know enough about internal Israeli politics, but I wonder how this will affect the proposed agreement with Saudi Arabia. If Iran is involved I expect that's their goal and they are willing to sacrifice as many Palestinians as needed to ice that deal.

[GrantDawg]

Bibi has told all Palestinians to leave Gaza. I don't know where they are supposed to go, but that announcement sounds ominous.

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[CrimsonFox]

Hamas surprise attack out of Gaza stuns Israel and leaves hundreds dead in fighting, retaliation | AP News

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

The Palestinians have legitimate grievances, but these actions are a declaration of war and in a war the Israelis will greatly and rightly punish the Palestinians. Not only are today's actions evil, they are going to be incredibly counter-productive to their cause.

What were they supposed to do? Not being sparky, just what were their options?

[JPhillips]

The only option is a Gandhi-like path that changes world opinion. It may not work quickly or at all, but they can't go toe to toe militarily and their "allies" are more than happy to sacrifice them in order to further goals that have nothing to do with Palestinian independence.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

The only option is a Gandhi-like path that changes world opinion. It may not work quickly or at all, but they can't go toe to toe militarily and their "allies" are more than happy to sacrifice them in order to further goals that have nothing to do with Palestinian independence.

Sadly, their only "allies" are way more interested in using them as a thorn in Israel's side than actually improving their situation. If any of us had the answer to this, we'd be well ahead of the people who have spent their lives trying to solve this puzzle.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

The only option is a Gandhi-like path that changes world opinion. It may not work quickly or at all, but they can't go toe to toe militarily and their "allies" are more than happy to sacrifice them in order to further goals that have nothing to do with Palestinian independence.

Yeah, with it mirroring South Africa, I think their only hope was to change public perception. But restrictions on peaceful protest are much harsher in Israel and they've learned to just buy off politicians overseas. There's just not a lot of options.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

What were they supposed to do? Not being sparky, just what were their options?

Be honest with the outside world that they have no interest in a one state solution, and honest with themselves that they keep getting smoked in any real military conflict so they should either try to actually get along, leave, or accept being 2nd class citizens if they had too much pride and too little sense to do either? Israel isn't exactly beloved by world opinion, but indiscriminately launching rockets at a wide range of civilian targets and kidnapping old ladies and dual national civilians then celebrating it on video has basically given Israel an opening to turn the Gaza strip and into a new Grozny or Bakhmut if they want, and it sounds like they might do it. The lack of any support I've seen from the West Bank or northern border areas sure makes it look like the fate of the 2 million people in the Gaza strip are at the mercy of however far Netanyahu wants to take it. They ceded any pretension of having the moral high ground and I don't see a single potential ally who can exert pressure on Bibi more than the internal political pressure will be to destroy things.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

They ceded any pretension of having the moral high ground and I don't see a single potential ally who can exert pressure on Bibi more than the internal political pressure will be to destroy things.

I would certainly hope not.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Be honest with the outside world that they have no interest in a one state solution, and honest with themselves that they keep getting smoked in any real military conflict so they should either try to actually get along, leave, or accept being 2nd class citizens if they had too much pride and too little sense to do either? Israel isn't exactly beloved by world opinion, but indiscriminately launching rockets at a wide range of civilian targets and kidnapping old ladies and dual national civilians then celebrating it on video has basically given Israel an opening to turn the Gaza strip and into a new Grozny or Bakhmut if they want, and it sounds like they might do it. The lack of any support I've seen from the West Bank or northern border areas sure makes it look like the fate of the 2 million people in the Gaza strip are at the mercy of however far Netanyahu wants to take it. They ceded any pretension of having the moral high ground and I don't see a single potential ally who can exert pressure on Bibi more than the internal political pressure will be to destroy things.

Who would they tell this to?

[Brian Swartz]

I have nothing profound to say beyond this whole situation sucks and I hate it.

I will ask though, on the suggestion to leave ... let's assume they were willing to do that. Leave and go where?

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I have nothing profound to say beyond this whole situation sucks and I hate it.

I will ask though, on the suggestion to leave ... let's assume they were willing to do that. Leave and go where?

If referring to GD post above, the text was ...

In a statement on X, he wrote: "All of the places which Hamas is deployed, hiding and operating in, that wicked city, we will turn them into rubble.

"I say to the residents of Gaza: Leave now because we will operate forcefully everywhere."

So believe he was referring to Gaza city and not the Gaza strip as a whole. If I was in Gaza city, I would leave for smaller towns/villages or countryside.

If referring to Bishop's statement to leave, as an individual/family, I'd leave for Fatah's West Bank where it's relatively more peaceful. Let the hardcore Hamas fighters fight it out with Israel for Gaza. In the meantime, I'll try live my life and see my family grow up in the West Bank (and start applying to immigrate to other countries).

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I have nothing profound to say beyond this whole situation sucks and I hate it.

I will ask though, on the suggestion to leave ... let's assume they were willing to do that. Leave and go where?

The West: we don’t understand where all these refugees are coming from. Build walls to keep them out and weaken the human rights legislation we don’t like to make sure they can’t come here.

Also the West: if the 2 million Palestinians don’t like living in poverty, squalor and under constant risk of death due to the actions of their “leadership” they should just leave.

I don’t have any solutions either other than feel tremendous sadness and a fair bit of anger at the part my country of birth played in this absolute shitshow of a situation… but I also really don’t understand this point of view.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Edward64

So believe he was referring to Gaza city and not the Gaza strip as a whole. If I was in Gaza city, I would leave for smaller towns/villages or countryside.

What countryside? Gaza strip is incredibly densely populated. There is nothing that can be properly described as countryside. If it were ranked as a country, it would be the third-most densely populated in the world at an estimated 6500 per square kilometer. To put that in perspective, it's 175 times the population density of the United States. Bangladesh is 6th on that metric, and often rightfully cited as an example of incredible poverty and dense urban squalor. The population density in the Gaza strip is more than 5 times that of Bangladesh. It is almost 2.4 million people living in an area about twice the size of Washington D.C.

The people in Gaza City can, and I'm sure some will, try to leave the city. But there's not much of anywhere for them to go, and meanwhile that won't exactly be a popular decision among many of the others there. They will be going to other areas short on basic needs that can't hande them, esp. in the required numbers.

In terms of going to the West Bank ... how? The short border with Egypt is not an open border, and every other direction is cut off by Israel via every potential method of travel. Gaza has been called an open-air prison for a reason; freedom of travel out of the strip does not exist for the people there. Trying to sneak past the barriers results in being shot on sight.

I was more referring to what Bishop said, but there's nowhere the people in Gaza can go. They could hand over every hostage they have, abandon Gaza City to the extent that is even possible tomorrow, and they are still screwed. They have no reasonable alternative that they can even try in terms of improving their situation that I can see. I'm not justifying the violence of course, I'm just more referring back to this just being a horrible situation all the way around.

[Edward64]

It is logical to assume, even in the Gaza strip, that there are some places less dense than others. And yeah, there is "countryside" and there are smaller towns & villages.

Gaza Strip Population Density - OCHA map - Question of Palestine


Your point about how about supplies & basic needs is a fair one. I don't know what's available or not but clearly it'll be inadequate.

Also fair enough about my comment re: West Bank. It's not practical to go there now. But sure, if I was in Gaza prior to this conflict, I'd be trying to relocate to the West Bank.

Bottom line to me. If you knew your city was going to be attacked, your enemy is telling you to leave, and there was going to be a lot of street to street fighting (and we all know this don't we?), the first priority is to get out of that city.

If I was in that situation, I'd probably head to the outskirts of the city (if I thought it was relatively safe from the fight) or south towards Egypt where very likely there'll be some sort of humanitarian assistance.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

They could hand over every hostage they have, abandon Gaza City to the extent that is even possible tomorrow, and they are still screwed. They have no reasonable alternative that they can even try in terms of improving their situation that I can see. I'm not justifying the violence of course, I'm just more referring back to this just being a horrible situation all the way around.

I agree this is a horrible situation. There are clearly a lot of innocents in Gaza. Let's use the 80-20 swag, I'd say 80% shouldn't be blamed or hurt by the actions of the 20%. Even if they are sympathizers, they shouldn't be blamed of the circumstances they find themselves in.

Its a shitty, no-win situation for the 80%.

[Brian Swartz]

I guess it depends on your definition of countryside? I don't know numbers but I don't object to your 80-20 rule at all as a general way of looking at it. Certainly agree with you that some areas are denser than others.

The graphic you posted has population figures that are somewhat out of date; the population is more than 50% higher than that now. Having said that, taking the figures on that, the lowest density figure there is 2,775 in Rafah. More than double that of Bangladesh. I will respectfully maintain my point that the entirety of the Gaza strip is highly urban. There's too many people in too small space for it to be anything else.

The only other clarification I would make is that the description of the ability of people in Gaza to leave Gaza was not based on this recent attack; it was meant to describe the situation before that. Last year, or 3 years ago, or whenever. They weren't free to go to the West Bank, or anywhere else, then either.

I think you are correct about people trying to do whatever they can to get to safety as best they can, in this moment. I just meant in the longer-term, they are stuck in a situation which they have no realistic means of even trying to improve.

[CrimsonFox]

Just blow the whistle and declare that all religion is cancelled.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

The only other clarification I would make is that the description of the ability of people in Gaza to leave Gaza was not based on this recent attack; it was meant to describe the situation before that. Last year, or 3 years ago, or whenever. They weren't free to go to the West Bank, or anywhere else, then either.

This is fair. I looked it up and I was not aware. The below link is from 2016 but essentially says movement from Gaza to West Bank has been near impossible since 2009. I've not found any docs that states otherwise.

https://www.nrc.no/globalassets/pdf/...en_wb_gaza.pdf

In March 2009, the Israeli military presented a new procedure. This procedure was formulated subsequent to petitions to the HCJ, which concerned women from the Gaza Strip who had married men from the West Bank but could not live with them since Israel refused their entrance to the West Bank.17 The new procedure barred Gaza Strip residents almost entirely from officially relocating to the West Bank, even if they had lived there for years. The procedure allowed for submission of requests only in exceptional cases.
18

Egypt was a viable escape hatch back in 2018. Don't know about now.

'I Want To Get The Hell Out Of Here': Thousands Of Palestinians Are Leaving Gaza : NPR

For over a decade, the Gaza Strip — controlled by the Islamist militant group Hamas, blockaded by its neighbors, difficult to leave — has amounted to an experiment in human isolation.

Now there is a new escape route. Egypt suddenly opened its border with Gaza in May 2018, and, facing increasingly unbearable living conditions, tens of thousands of Gazans are believed to have crossed that border and scattered across the world, in the latest chapter in a mass exodus of migrants out of the troubled Middle East.

I think you are correct about people trying to do whatever they can to get to safety as best they can, in this moment. I just meant in the longer-term, they are stuck in a situation which they have no realistic means of even trying to improve.

Yup.

Out of curiosity, looked up GDP and other metrics.

West Bank and Gaza - United States Department of State

The Palestinian economy is small, just over $18 billion in nominal GDP in 2021

There is still a wide gap between the unemployment rates in the West Bank and Gaza, as this rate reached 45 percent in Gaza compared to 13 percent in the West Bank.

Breaking it down by gender, the unemployment rate for females reached 40 percent compared to 20 percent for males. The average daily wage in the West Bank is $37, and the equivalent is $15 in Gaza, compared to $79 in Israel.

Just think. If Musk had only spent his $40B+ over 2.5 years on Palestine ... assuming under proper governance, the good would have been fantastic.

[RainMaker]

The area was designed to act as a pseudo prison. There's just nowhere to go unless people start swimming.

It's kind of the similar to what is happening in Rojava right now too. They're getting crushed from all sides. If larger more powerful force is hellbent on a soft genocide, the average person doesn't have a many options by design.

[RainMaker]

Egypt is also not an option. It's a narrow border with a massive heavily armed wall. There were tunnels but Egypt has destroyed a ton and even gone as far as gassing some. Barring Egypt changing course and opening their border, there is nowhere to go in that direction.

[GrantDawg]

The coming attack into Gaza is going to be complicated. There have been hostages taken and their whereabouts are unknown. There is also the probability some of those hostages are Western. some probably American. Israel does not go into Gaza with kid-gloves, and it wouldn't surprise me if they don't have the safe return of hostages anywhere near their top priority. This is going to get uglier than it already is.

[Edward64]

I've read (not confirmed) US, UK, Russian, Nepali, Thai, German, and Filipino. Many from the music festival. Read there were kids captured also.

There was at least one grandma that I saw. It's crazy they thought that was a good idea. Along with parading a dead/unconscious half-naked woman (with an obvious broken leg) in the back of truck. I believe they confirmed her to be German.

Yeah, my guess is securing hostages alive is going to be secondary to the military objectives.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

What countryside? Gaza strip is incredibly densely populated. There is nothing that can be properly described as countryside. If it were ranked as a country, it would be the third-most densely populated in the world at an estimated 6500 per square kilometer. To put that in perspective, it's 175 times the population density of the United States. Bangladesh is 6th on that metric, and often rightfully cited as an example of incredible poverty and dense urban squalor. The population density in the Gaza strip is more than 5 times that of Bangladesh. It is almost 2.4 million people living in an area about twice the size of Washington D.C.

The people in Gaza City can, and I'm sure some will, try to leave the city. But there's not much of anywhere for them to go, and meanwhile that won't exactly be a popular decision among many of the others there. They will be going to other areas short on basic needs that can't hande them, esp. in the required numbers.

In terms of going to the West Bank ... how? The short border with Egypt is not an open border, and every other direction is cut off by Israel via every potential method of travel. Gaza has been called an open-air prison for a reason; freedom of travel out of the strip does not exist for the people there. Trying to sneak past the barriers results in being shot on sight.

I was more referring to what Bishop said, but there's nowhere the people in Gaza can go. They could hand over every hostage they have, abandon Gaza City to the extent that is even possible tomorrow, and they are still screwed. They have no reasonable alternative that they can even try in terms of improving their situation that I can see. I'm not justifying the violence of course, I'm just more referring back to this just being a horrible situation all the way around.

The Arab countries have basically never wanted them outside of Egypt temporarily at least allowing them to escape, they refuse to leave and give up the right to return, a one state solution that could lead to Palestinians outnumbering Israelis would never fly, and meanwhile the population in the pseudo prison that already couldn't support the amount of people has more than doubled since the Oslo accords and kept going up exponentially after Israel pulled it's army and all it's citizens out and Hamas took over 20 years ago. 45% unemployment rate, 75% of the population is under the age of 25, this was bound to happen. "Leaving" was only an option if it was negotiated as part of some peace process where an Egypt or Saudi Arabia or US can pay for them to be relocated, but that won't work if they refuse to admit defeat. Hama rules were always going to be the eventual outcome, by attacking indiscriminately in this manner and with the proliferation of videos now showing them killing or celebrating and parading around what are clearly civilian hostages Israel's gonna go scorched earth and probably take over military control of the territory again, but it will still never be resolved until those people are removed or accept defeat.

Originally Posted by bhlloy

The West: we don’t understand where all these refugees are coming from. Build walls to keep them out and weaken the human rights legislation we don’t like to make sure they can’t come here.

Also the West: if the 2 million Palestinians don’t like living in poverty, squalor and under constant risk of death due to the actions of their “leadership” they should just leave.

I don’t have any solutions either other than feel tremendous sadness and a fair bit of anger at the part my country of birth played in this absolute shitshow of a situation… but I also really don’t understand this point of view.

Nah, not surprised at all where refugees come from, no problem taking some in or paying for them to be resettled elsewhere if it eliminates the problem, but it needs to be mutual and that section in particular has too many people who are convinced they can destroy Israel somehow. Someone compared it to South African apartheid and it's not, the West Bank under Fatah is like that, there is some political goodwill and the lives of people are much better (4x higher income per capita, etc). Not gonna pretend the PLA is completely non-violent or the ANC was but the ANC showed the playbook to win world support which is the way to win vs a state that is overwhelmingly militarily superior. The Gaza Strip is a terrorist enclave and you can talk about why many people are indoctrinated due to it being all they've ever known in their short life but they've voted for and supported Hamas at far greater than some 20/80 ratio. Congrats on catching Israel off guard (and whoo boy what an intelligence failure) and killing a few hundred Israelis, thousands if not tens of thousands of Palestinians are going to die due to that choice. Doesn't make me happy either but being angry at the US for this seems pretty misplaced IMO, YMMV. There were also 500k people who would have needed to be resettled in 1990, a million in 2000, over 2 million now, and it'd probably be over 5 million in another 20 years, let's deal with this now instead of waiting for the ridiculous fertility rate in a place that can't support it economically or geographically keeps exploding and the population gets even more restless and eager to break out of the containment.

[GrantDawg]

The US is moving a carrier group closer to Israel. I imagine we are going to be helping them with more surveillance and intelligence as they move forward.

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[RainMaker]

I think the US should stay out of it.

[GrantDawg]

But we won't.

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[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

The US is moving a carrier group closer to Israel. I imagine we are going to be helping them with more surveillance and intelligence as they move forward.

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so like what side are we even on? I really don't think it makes sense to be on either side

[RainMaker]

We shouldn't have a side but it'll end up being the side of the country with one of the strongest lobbying groups in Washington. Also the side we can funnel weapons to to prop up defense companies.

[GrantDawg]

We have a Defense Agreement with Israel that requires we provide support in their defense from threats whether they are state or non-state actors. We will be providing support for Isreal in accordance with these treaties not to mention numerous laws.
From what I read it does not require boots-on-the-ground support, but there will be material and intelligence support. If there was any chance the US wouldn't help support Isreal in this, that went out the window when Hamas took American hostages. There is zero chance the US isn't going to support Isreal at least until the atrocities start pouring in, which is where I suspect this will go.

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[GrantDawg]

Btw, these attacks were led by Hamas, which the US still labels as a terrorist organization. That again legally obligates the US to provide support.

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[Edward64]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

There is zero chance the US isn't going to support Isreal at least until the atrocities start pouring in, which is where I suspect this will go.

There's typically a point where the West will say the response is "excessive" or "disproportional", and pressure will be applied for Israel to back off.

But this time, I suspect Israel will have more leeway & time to do her thing.

[JPhillips]

The real issue is going to be with Iran. I expect we won't do much to stop an Israeli attack.

[SirFozzie]

Hamas has made sure that there will be no progress on decoupling the world from Israel for at least another decade. The photos of the dead and dying and lost will put paid to any attempt to push boycotts of Israel, or diversify from Israel.

I'm pretty sure Hamas thinks they've "struck a mighty blow against the oppressors", but they just Al-qeda'd themselves, and really struck a blow against those who they claim to support, which is probably what the people paying and equipping Hamas want.

[RainMaker]

I mean Israel has been doing that and worse for decades now. It's a war, I don't know why images from one side would change much.