Werewolf CXXXI: Lone Wolf - Against the Darklords GAME OVER, EVERYBODY WINS

[MrBug708]

Ah, I passed out after I voted and then went tot he Dodger game. Glad we got a bad guy

[Narcizo]

11:07 #70 - Autumn votes DaddyTorgo (1)
11:22 #71 - Narcizo votes Darth Vilus (1)>>
11:33 #72 - JAG votes Dwardzala (1)
11:35 #73 - bhlloy votes mckerney (1)
12:34 #77 - Zinto votes DaddyTorgo (2)
12:39 #78 - Lathum votes DaddyTorgo (3)

13:11 #80 - Thomkal votes Narcizo (1)
13:47 #81 - CrimsonFox votes Chief Rum (1)
14:41 #84 - Packer Fanatic votes mckerney (2)
15:09 #85 - Jackal votes Chief Rum (2)
16:03 #86 - Bug votes Darth Vilus (2)
16:45 #92 - Thomkal unvotes Narcizo (0)>>
16:45 #92 – Thomkal votes mckerney (3)
16:53 #93 - Chief Rum votes Darth Vilus (3)

17:27 #101 - mckerney votes Chief Rum (3)
17:37 #103 - JAG unvotes Dward (0)>>
17:37 #103 - JAG votes Darth Vilus (4)
17:55 #106 - dwardzala votes Chief Rum (4)

20:36 #117 - DaddyTorgo votes Darth Vilus (5)
21:41 #130 - Hoops votes DaddyTorgo (4)
21:52 #139 - Danny votes DaddyTorgo (5)
21:58 #148 - Mau votes Chief Rum (5)
21:59 #151 - Mau unvotes Chief Rum (4) >>
21:59 #151 – Mau votes DaddyTorgo (6)>>

[Narcizo]

6 Daddy Torgo - Autumn (70), Zinto (77), Lathum (78), Hoops (130), Danny (139), Mauboy (151)
5 Darth Vilus - Narcizo (71), Bug (86) Chief Rum (93), JAG (103), Daddy Torgo (117)
3 mckerney - bhlloy (73), PackerFanatic (84) Thomkal (92)
4 Chief Rum - Crimson Fox (81), Jackal (85), Mckerney (101), dwardzala (106)

[Narcizo]

Arse! Just lost my cunningly perceptive post about the voting. I'll summarise.

I don't think there's any point looking at Daddy Torgo voters. Don't have 100% trust for them but there's, clearly, more obvious people to look at.

I've got a decent amount of trust for Darth Vilus based on the way DT voted him rather than the other options.

I reckon there's a wolf or two between Lathum's vote and Torgo's vote. I'm not sure I buy Thomkal's argument that non-DV voters could easily have switched their vote to save DT at the last. Not without looking very suspicious when DT gets tracked down and comes up wolf.

I find the way the day was so quiet pretty weird. Doesn't really seem like much was going on. Makes me think that there might not be as many wolves as I thought at first or that we got really lucky and there were two wolves on the block. But again there are more obvious routes of investigation at the moment.

I think the percentage play is to look at the Darth Vilus voters, as DV is the most likely villager of the three other vote-getters. DT was at pains to point out that his vote was a self-defence measure, which to my mind means that there is another wolf there and he's distancing himself from their vote. So that is what I shall do when I finished doing some work. However I've got a pretty good idea about one of the people.

[JAG]

Even though my vote is arguably the worst of them, I find it hard to dispute that logic Narc, though I feel mckerney is a likely villager as well with how DT tried to imply I was a wolf protecting mckerney as a fellow wolf (possibly trying to drive voted there). Of the unknown DV voters, I'm leaning much more towards Bug and Chief Rum than you since your vote was prior to DT being upped to 3 votes and since you introduced this line of thinking despite it also pointing at you. At this point, I think CR is the best option since 1. DT chose to vote DV instead of him, possibly because he had an open choice but it reflects somewhat negatively on CR. 2. In the worst case scenario of him being a villager, we'll get more information about how things went down D1.

Vote Chief Rum

[CrimsonFox]

Am liking #2 voters, especially those that brought up the #3 and #4 number 2 votes. (Jackal and Bug). Not sure what to make of the Chief vs mckerney thing. Chief actually has had this argument a lot lately. (Saying that people should vote to save themselves immediately instead of upping lesser candidates). He did it to me in Dr Who and we were both villagers. So I don't know. So going back to my initial statement of #2 voters.

VOTE BUG

[Narcizo]

Looking at things purely in terms of the votes made by the DV voters:

Narcizo - put in an early vote. I could have moved it until around 16:15 or so (and would probably have shifted it to mckerney or Chief had Bug not put his vote in), so I don't expect to be given a clear pass over that.

Bug - bit of a vote and run. I'm not sure second vote is the most condemning at this stage with DT having three votes. Packer and Jackal had both made it two votes to mckerney and chief so he could, presumably, stick his vote there to directly counter a move on DT. Still early days though and a wolf Bug (sounds nasty) might want there to be a spread of possible candidates to vote from there.

Chief - apparently there's been a lot of thought given to how you go about self-preservation as a wolf or as a villager that I had no idea about. Anyway Chief adds DV to the 3-vote tie of mckerney and DT. I'm not really clued in enough to know the ins and outs of the move there. Seems that if Chief is a wolf then he's protecting himself by saying "vote for one of these guys". Stick his vote on mckerney and the risk is that he's going to cause a two-horse race off between mckerney and DT with no other wolf able to influence things later on without looking dodgy. So, yeah I can see this being a wolf vote.

JAG - pushes DV ahead of the pack. Yeah, got to say that that's the weakest vote at the moment.

From an information-gathering point of view then, like JAG says, a Chief lynch gives us the most information. I would love for Chief to come up wolf because then we're in a really strong position. Therefore the pessimist in me says that I find it really hard to believe that that can be the case. I guess there are times where there's been two wolves on the block on day one but the odds must be pretty out there of it happening.

Based on other stuff. Bug has offered nothing and if I'm going to stick with my "target UTR guys" then he would get my vote. I'd guess the same sort of goes from a "which villager can we most afford to lose" viewpoint as I know JAG and Chief have a lot to offer as villagers while I don't know a whole heap about Bug.

Going to look through the thread again. Good thing about it being so short.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

No, it's really not what I did, considering I was in no danger as things stood. mckerney on the other hand, has all the appearances of being a possible lycnhee, given he was one of the three with the most votes at the time of his vote. The natural response there is to bump up one of the other three voters, not muddy the situation further by adding a fourth candidate. It rings alarm bells in me when someone makes an unnatural decision, since I sit here wondering why they did that. It's rarely a good reason.

And if he has a tiebreaker, this would cartainly not be the way to announce that, nor the time to do so (way too early).

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Thinking he's a wolf protecting another wolf?

Dunno how to interpret this. My initial reaction is that if DT and Chief were wolves in this situation they would avoid this sort of contact. Seems more likely that DT would pick up on it if Chief were a villager.

Originally Posted by JAG

I understand you had to rush to put things together, but why would it be wrong in DT's case to get some distance from the others as opposed to making a 3-way tie for first?

Thanks for the vote log also.

Originally Posted by JAG

Alright, I see where you're coming from. I guess it probably would've been better to make the 3-way tie and see what came about. Though from the look of things, it seems like there are a few who are likely to miss their vote.

Initially you could see this as a subtle defence of Daddy Torgo by JAG. On the other hand I'm still not sure I understand Hoops' reasoning so I can fully understand JAG questioning it, I'd probably have done the same thing in his position. I mean, clearly there's something to it - I just don't understand what.

Obviously, I find nothing to quote from MrBug.

[Narcizo]

Going to stick with my principles for now. It's really easy to look at the posts of people who vote a lot and find hints and connotations that say that they're somehow linked to a wolf. Follow up these all the time and we're going to carry on banging away at the people who post more than average and the correct wolf play will become to post as little as possible, causing less discussion all-round.

Vote MrBug

[JAG]

I interpret DT's comment to CR as DT laying the groundwork for a mckerney vote, though he switched gears to vote DV when DV had more votes to give himself more of a cushion. That makes me feel somewhat better about both of them.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I reckon there's a wolf or two between Lathum's vote and Torgo's vote.

Well I am gonna go out on a limb and say Torgo is the wolf in this scenerio

[Narcizo]

I meant between the time of your vote and the time of DT's vote.

[PackerFanatic]

VOTE JAG

Add one more to the mix from the DV voters.

[Thomkal]

good morning all.

In looking over the excellent recaps from Hoops and Narcizo, the vote that stands out for me is JAG putting DV ahead of the other candidates-because DV is where DaddyTorgo, now a known wolf, put his vote in the end. And I have to think there is at least one other agent of the darklords is on DV too.

There would have been some effort at some point in the day to try to save DaddyTorgo I think. I think its likely that there's an Agent or two on Chief Rum as well as he unlike Mckerney, was voted on after DT got three votes.

vote JAG

[MrBug708]

I think my reasons were valid, though failing to establish a voting pattern seems like a silly reason to vote for someone. About as informative as voting someone for the first day based on really anything.

Though, nothing stopped you from moving your vote, as you alluded to and using me as a reason to stay seems odd as there is nothing in the rules (officially or unofficially) that prevents you from leaving

[Zinto]

I am not really happy with the four candidates we get from going only after DV voters. Chief seems unlikely at this point because I can believe that we had one wolf on the block on day one let alone two. I am also not ready to vote for Jag, Bug, or Narcizo at this point.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

good morning all.

In looking over the excellent recaps from Hoops and Narcizo, the vote that stands out for me is JAG putting DV ahead of the other candidates-because DV is where DaddyTorgo, now a known wolf, put his vote in the end. And I have to think there is at least one other agent of the darklords is on DV too.

There would have been some effort at some point in the day to try to save DaddyTorgo I think. I think its likely that there's an Agent or two on Chief Rum as well as he unlike Mckerney, was voted on after DT got three votes.

vote JAG

Can you explain the bolded sentence above? After DT was up to three votes, PF and, even more oddly you, both voted mckerney.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by JAG

Can you explain the bolded sentence above? After DT was up to three votes, PF and, even more oddly you, both voted mckerney.

That pings me a bit too to be honest. Thomkal is pretty clearly steering suspicion away from the mckerney voters - why?

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Zinto

I am not really happy with the four candidates we get from going only after DV voters. Chief seems unlikely at this point because I can believe that we had one wolf on the block on day one let alone two. I am also not ready to vote for Jag, Bug, or Narcizo at this point.

Now that we know that DT was a wolf, I think there is a pretty good chance that we had another wolf on the block yesterday alongside DT. And, given the lack of a save, perhaps a more important wolf role than what DT had to offer his group.

[Lathum]

With a decent number of people on the block already CF throws out a vote for CR under the pretense of CR being quiet. This strikes me as an easy way to deflect attention from DT and further spread things out.

VOTE CF

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

That pings me a bit too to be honest. Thomkal is pretty clearly steering suspicion away from the mckerney voters - why?

I'm not steering it away-my vote on Mckerney certainly makes it possible that I'm an Agent of the Darklords-my point was that there were no votes on mckerney after my vote-when DaddyTorgo became more of a likely candidate for lynching. The agents were not using Mckerney after my vote to try to save their fellow Agent DT. Is there one on mckerney? Probably because it would be a safe place to hide-is it the best place to look for said Agent today? Absolutely not because its more likely there are wolves on Darth or even Chief Rum given what we now know about DT.

There was what four, five hours after I made my vote? I never changed it after that. I made no move to try to save any of the leading candidates for the vote which I surely would have if I was an Agent given how much time was left after my vote. I made no effort to try to disuade people for voting for DT. I was there in the last hour when I could have changed my vote to try to save him. I did not.

I am a Kai but I understand why people might want to vote for me-all i ask is that you consider what I've just said here-the best chance for us to find an Agent is with the Darth voters right now.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

And yet I did nothing to save DaddyTorgo, which I surely would have if I were a wolf. I'm thinking the Darth voters are the way to go today.

I'm not sure this is a strong defense here. The run on DT happened late, and the vote to put hom ahead was cast with a minute left before the deadline. It's very possible DT had a tiebreaker discipline so they were happy to leave it a tie, they didn't realize DT needed to be saved in time, or realized saving him at the last minute would be a bad move.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by JAG

Can you explain the bolded sentence above? After DT was up to three votes, PF and, even more oddly you, both voted mckerney.

As I stated when I made that vote, I wanted to see what would happen, if I tied it up. it was day 1 guys, when we knew nothing about the people up for lynch. I got called out last game for not moving my vote to one of the leading candidates on day 1. So I wanted no part of that this game-hence my vote to make it a tie.

And JAG, go back and look at the vote-people moved to Darth then too-and after I voted for mckerney-no one else did-if there was a move to save DT, it was done with either the Darth voters or the Chief Rum voters.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Now that we know that DT was a wolf, I think there is a pretty good chance that we had another wolf on the block yesterday alongside DT. And, given the lack of a save, perhaps a more important wolf role than what DT had to offer his group.

I think it is also possible the wolves believed DT was going to be safe until mau's vote.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by mckerney

I think it is also possible the wolves believed DT was going to be safe until mau's vote.

Yep, fair point mckerney.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by mckerney

I think it is also possible the wolves believed DT was going to be safe until mau's vote.

This would make sense, which means that Thomkal's line of thinking about the mckerney voters doesn't really hold water. There were no votes on mckerney after his, sure, but there were also no additional votes after/during that run on DT either.

Possible that some of the wolves fell asleep/weren't around while the run was going on or just didn't think DT was worth saving - but I don't think we can read too much into the lack of movement or say that one set of voters are more worth looking at that any other.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by mckerney

I'm not sure this is a strong defense here. The run on DT happened late, and the vote to put hom ahead was cast with a minute left before the deadline. It's very possible DT had a tiebreaker discipline so they were happy to leave it a tie, they didn't realize DT needed to be saved in time, or realized saving him at the last minute would be a bad move.

Probably not the strongest defense no, but still a defense-DT was pretty much in danger of being lynched all day-even when he was down one vote coming down to the end of the day because none of us knew what was going to happen in that last hour. My vote on Mckerney was certainly doing nothing to save him. I refuse to believe that nothing was done to try to save him-it may have looked like that was what I tried to do when I placed that vote on you mckerney-but I did nothing after that point. It was just unlucky on my part that my effort to create a tie to see what kind of movement would take place (and movement did happen) made me a potential candidate for lynching today.

[Thomkal]

okay away from the computer a bit, you'll have to wait to grill me more.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

This would make sense, which means that Thomkal's line of thinking about the mckerney voters doesn't really hold water. There were no votes on mckerney after his, sure, but there were also no additional votes after/during that run on DT either.

Possible that some of the wolves fell asleep/weren't around while the run was going on or just didn't think DT was worth saving - but I don't think we can read too much into the lack of movement or say that one set of voters are more worth looking at that any other.

Unless we are to believe that all the wolves had their votes on DV or that both DV and DT are wolves I'm not going to consider the, "if I were a wolf I obviously would have saved DT" defense. It's likely at least one wolf was voting for someone other than DV. Concentrating on DV voters might ultimately be the best move for today though.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

As I stated when I made that vote, I wanted to see what would happen, if I tied it up. it was day 1 guys, when we knew nothing about the people up for lynch. I got called out last game for not moving my vote to one of the leading candidates on day 1. So I wanted no part of that this game-hence my vote to make it a tie.

And JAG, go back and look at the vote-people moved to Darth then too-and after I voted for mckerney-no one else did-if there was a move to save DT, it was done with either the Darth voters or the Chief Rum voters.

I understand where you're coming from now (glad I asked for an explanation). I think you may have misworded it above, but basically your point is if there was a move to save DT by a wolf, it had to come from one of the later DV / CR voters. That being the case, your shortlist would be me, CR, and dwardzala.

[JAG]

Not sure I 100% agree with that line of reasoning. If I were a wolf, I'd rather get in on the ground floor with a second vote where it looks less suspicious if DT ends up getting lynched rather than a later vote where you're likely to be the primary target of voters the next day (though I find myself voting for CR who fits your reasoning, albeit for a different reason).

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Though, nothing stopped you from moving your vote, as you alluded to and using me as a reason to stay seems odd as there is nothing in the rules (officially or unofficially) that prevents you from leaving

I guess this is aimed at me. The reason I stuck is that I don't like to leave at the early stage of the day with just my vote as a singleton, unless I'm convinced it's the right move. I can't move my vote around late in the day/evening so I like it to have some "value" and that value is to have it linked with, at least, one other vote. So had you not voted I wouldn't have wanted to leave my vote hanging by itself and I would have shifted it to Chief or mckerney. (in my fantasy land I would have shifted it to DT). That's got nothing to do with my reasons for voting for you.

Time zone issues are one of the crosses I have to bear for living in a Socialist Paradise.

[MrBug708]

Eh, I was at a Dodger game by the time the deadline went by so either way, I couldn't make a last minute switch and was stuck with my initial vote. I also have class today so I will likely have my vote in sooner than the deadline.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by mckerney

I think it is also possible the wolves believed DT was going to be safe until mau's vote.

Doubt they felt he was safe if they were expecting DV to vote but there's probably only so much you want to be seen doing to try and save someone who's going to be getting heat in the future no matter what the outcome of the vote.

[Narcizo]

Vote count as of #234

Thomkal (1) - dwardzala (186)
Chief Rum (1) - JAG (205)
MrBug (2) - CrimsonFox (206), Narcizo (209)
JAG (2) - PackerFanatic (213), Thomkal (214)
CrimsonFox (1) - Lathum (220)

Still to vote: MrBug, bhlloy, Chief Rum, Zinto, Hoops, Jackal, mckerney, Darth Vilus, Danny, mauboy.

[bhlloy]

I'm a bit torn right now. I think JAG has the worst vote, but he's just not pinging me as much as Bug is. I'm going to go with my gut and make things closer rather than push JAG back ahead.

Vote MrBug

[bhlloy]

doh... if that vote count is correct then I pushed someone ahead anyway. Let's see how it shakes out.

[MrBug708]

[b]Vote -Crimson Fox[b]

Clearly a self defense move right now

[MrBug708]

Make that

Vote Crimson Fox

[Darth Vilus]

Today and tomorrow really suck for playin WW I'm afraid. Things will be alot better thur, it's my day off.

Vote ChiefRum

He is one of the ones whose vote looks like an attempt to save DT.

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Doubt they felt he was safe if they were expecting DV to vote but there's probably only so much you want to be seen doing to try and save someone who's going to be getting heat in the future no matter what the outcome of the vote.

I think more so then DV coming online would be that he also had a tie breaking mechanic causing both of the to get lynched.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

[b]Vote -Crimson Fox[b]

Clearly a self defense move right now

Alright, I'm arguing a lot about self-defense today, but how does that vote on a player with one vote defend you better than a vote on me who has two votes?

[JAG]

Today and yesterday I meant, first post about it today.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by JAG

I understand where you're coming from now (glad I asked for an explanation). I think you may have misworded it above, but basically your point is if there was a move to save DT by a wolf, it had to come from one of the later DV / CR voters. That being the case, your shortlist would be me, CR, and dwardzala.

Sorry for the confusion, yes that is what I meant. So yes you are the other two are high up on my suspect list right now.

[Thomkal]

man some days I just can't type-meant to say "So yes you and (not are) the other two are high up on my suspect list right now."

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by JAG

Alright, I'm arguing a lot about self-defense today, but how does that vote on a player with one vote defend you better than a vote on me who has two votes?

Im going to assume that in the interest of self-preservation, you would vote for me. Not much I can really do at this point. CF has already voted for me so there isn't his vote to worry about swinging back on me

[JAG]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Im going to assume that in the interest of self-preservation, you would vote for me. Not much I can really do at this point. CF has already voted for me so there isn't his vote to worry about swinging back on me

If it got down to it, yes I certainly would. That being the case though, it would be a one vote deficit for you either way you voted, CF or myself (assuming my vote switch). It seems a bit early for a self-defense vote with numerous others still to vote and you didn't seem to put much effort into trying to make a case for who is the likeliest wolf.

[The Jackal]

Catching up now, looks like we have bug with 3 and three others with 2?

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by JAG

If it got down to it, yes I certainly would. That being the case though, it would be a one vote deficit for you either way you voted, CF or myself (assuming my vote switch). It seems a bit early for a self-defense vote with numerous others still to vote and you didn't seem to put much effort into trying to make a case for who is the likeliest wolf.

I dont have any idea who the likeliest wolf is. All I know is that I'm not

[Zinto]

I am still not really sure what to make of the fact there was not move to try and save DT yesterday but how late it happened could it have been that there was no other wolves online or only one other wolf online who felt he couldn't move the vote without damning both himself and DT.