WW LXVII -- The Return of Divination Nation! (GAME OVER STUDENTS WIN!!!) - Page 5

Passacaglia · 02-18-2008, 10:20 AM

Right now, I'm looking to throw my vote at the two people with no data on them right now -- "The Heinz" and "The Cronin"

Lorena · 02-18-2008, 10:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bsak16

So you know this from experience...hmmm...interesting.

Yes, many times unfortunately. I'm easily swayed and run all kinds of conspiracy theories in my head when there's a hint that someone *might* be telling the truth.

Well, there's one vote out there so I might as well throw one as well

Vote jeheinz72

Random, Day 1, etc.

st.cronin · 02-18-2008, 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Right now, I'm looking to throw my vote at the two people with no data on them right now -- "The Heinz" and "The Cronin"

Bummer.

Passacaglia · 02-18-2008, 10:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Bummer.

Look, if you're that upset about it, there is something you can do.

claphamsa · 02-18-2008, 10:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Right now, I'm looking to throw my vote at the two people with no data on them right now -- "The Heinz" and "The Cronin"

heinz is off today, so well get nothign from him till tommroow mornign!

st.cronin · 02-18-2008, 10:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Look, if you're that upset about it, there is something you can do.

Yeah. Look, I just finished catching up on the thread. My scan last night was of greyroofoo. He came up student.

Pumpy Tudors · 02-18-2008, 10:39 AM

Vote jeheinz72

Dr. Sak · 02-18-2008, 10:40 AM

Look at the newbie's piling on the votes.

Lathum · 02-18-2008, 10:43 AM

I would like to hear from everyone before I decide but if jheinze won't be here at all today that would obviously make that diffucult.

I know Saldana usualy checks in around lunchtime so I will at least wait until then.

st.cronin · 02-18-2008, 10:44 AM

VOTE RENDER

He hasn't voted for me yet, so something must be wrong.

Passacaglia · 02-18-2008, 10:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

I would like to hear from everyone before I decide but if jheinze won't be here at all today that would obviously make that diffucult.

I know Saldana usualy checks in around lunchtime so I will at least wait until then.

I'm in the same boat. the Heinz not being around really doesn't help him, but if a lot of people come out saying they scanned him, I'll vote elsewhere -- for me, it's all about who has the least data points, which includes scanning and being scanned.

oliegirl · 02-18-2008, 10:53 AM

I really hate pile on votes, but after looking at the info Chief has given us, Heinz is the only one who has not posted his N0 scan results AND also not been the target of a scan. I know it's not much, but do we have anything else to go on at this point?

Not ready to vote yet, but this is definitely something to think about...

claphamsa · 02-18-2008, 11:34 AM

Wow its 70 Degrees here..... I dont think ill be on mu8ch today :P

nfg22 · 02-18-2008, 11:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I actually think being at 10% is as good as being at 90%, as long as we're aware of it. The guys you don't want are at 50% -- they're really telling you nothing.

True, We can just reverse false scans....

nfg22 · 02-18-2008, 11:45 AM

Well even in fear of getting killed by wolves, ill throw two names out there. Claph and Pumpy. I did some analysis of the N0scans that I don't want to share because it is inconclusive and if I am right I will be killed. Just to say, Claph came up as a wolf. Second, Pumpy, I dont know how you usually act in these things but you have tried to stay active while adding nothing at all. Im going to hold on my vote for a while but those are my two favorites...Also with the confirmed info we have Heinz was supposed to be out today, thus the no post is not really a case against him.

path12 · 02-18-2008, 11:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

So wolves received the scan verbiage on N0? They don't scan (nor need to), right?

All players including wolves received a N0 scan, whether needed or not.

Lathum · 02-18-2008, 11:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nfg22

Well even in fear of getting killed by wolves, ill throw two names out there. Claph and Pumpy. I did some analysis of the N0scans that I don't want to share because it is inconclusive and if I am right I will be killed. Just to say, Claph came up as a wolf. .

can you elaborate on this?

I'm not sure the best place to start is on someone who has been cleared by multiple people considering Path made it clear it is possible to have duplicate scans Night 0

Lathum · 02-18-2008, 11:52 AM

Path-2 questions

Is the tie-breaker public?
Can we vote No Lynch?

path12 · 02-18-2008, 11:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Might as well clear this up.

path, are our starting accuracies essentially locked into stone (outside of mechanics might change our accuracies from time to time, I mean)?

Correct. Each player has a seer accuracy rate. This is a fixed number.

nfg22 · 02-18-2008, 11:57 AM

I basically just tried to find some patterns to the scanning. Who scanned who and why. Claph didnt add up. I didnt find many patterns and the scanning could have been random. Basically I know both people I named were duplicate scans but really what else do we have to go on? Also I am not putting too much faith in the N) scans...

path12 · 02-18-2008, 11:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

Path-2 questions

Is the tie-breaker public?
Can we vote No Lynch?

1) Maybe.
2) Yes.

nfg22 · 02-18-2008, 11:58 AM

dola,I dont think all the wolves now eachother...which is why they recieved scans...

Pumpy Tudors · 02-18-2008, 12:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nfg22

Well even in fear of getting killed by wolves, ill throw two names out there. Claph and Pumpy. I did some analysis of the N0scans that I don't want to share because it is inconclusive and if I am right I will be killed. Just to say, Claph came up as a wolf. Second, Pumpy, I dont know how you usually act in these things but you have tried to stay active while adding nothing at all. Im going to hold on my vote for a while but those are my two favorites...

I don't have anything to add. I've never played before, and I have pretty much no information to go on except for a bunch of numbers that confuse me.

Well, besides that, I guess I also have you saying that you have information that would get you killed. To me, you might as well hold up a sign that says "KILL ME!" I'll mull that over for a bit and possibly change my vote. Thanks, pal!

Lorena · 02-18-2008, 12:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by claphamsa

heinz is off today, so well get nothign from him till tommroow mornign!

I just searched for heinz's posts in here and he has a handful, but none of them say he won't be here. I'm curious as to where you got this information.

Barkeep49 · 02-18-2008, 12:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nfg22

dola,I dont think all the wolves now eachother...which is why they recieved scans...

I think that this is most likely correct.

I've been glad to see others do the statisical analysis that I find that I do so often.

Pass talked about how 10% is nearly as good as 90%. I'm not sure I agree with that, but further even that is true how do we go about finding out those numbers? Doing that seems like it is one of the most important things we can do to win this game. Failing our ability to do that, I don't see anyway to play it except as a very traditional game of WW with a hell of a lot of extra, false, info out there.

For path: Can you clarify exactly how the scans work? Let's say you did your 5d20 and I rolled a 20. I then send in a scan. Presumably there is a dice roll at this point. Let's say I fail. Do I receive the "wrong" response automatically? Or is there a second roll (presumably 50/50) to determine what result I get?

Lorena · 02-18-2008, 12:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

I just searched for heinz's posts in here and he has a handful, but none of them say he won't be here. I'm curious as to where you got this information.

Actually, not even a handful. The only post I saw was "in".

Barkeep49 · 02-18-2008, 12:08 PM

To reiterate a point above for those who don't like long posts: At this point I think looking at the numbers is semi-optional and you can play this as a traditional game of WW successfully.

nfg22 · 02-18-2008, 12:13 PM

I have an idea. Are allowed to pick who we scan?

nfg22 · 02-18-2008, 12:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pumpy Tudors

I don't have anything to add. I've never played before, and I have pretty much no information to go on except for a bunch of numbers that confuse me.

Well, besides that, I guess I also have you saying that you have information that would get you killed. To me, you might as well hold up a sign that says "KILL ME!" I'll mull that over for a bit and possibly change my vote. Thanks, pal!

KILL ME!!!!! Seriously, vote for me you wolf...if you vote for me it just shows you are a wolf and scared of my uber skills.

Pumpy Tudors · 02-18-2008, 12:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nfg22

KILL ME!!!!! Seriously, vote for me you wolf...if you vote for me it just shows you are a wolf and scared of my uber skills.

But I'm not a wolf.

nfg22 · 02-18-2008, 12:16 PM

Then don't vote for me.

Lorena · 02-18-2008, 12:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nfg22

KILL ME!!!!! Seriously, vote for me you wolf...if you vote for me it just shows you are a wolf and scared of my uber skills.

I don't know if I should take this post seriously or what, but you seem to be pretty adamant that Pumpy's a wolf.

nfg22 · 02-18-2008, 12:19 PM

Im not really adamant about anything. Im more just interacting with the little truth I know. Thus when people interact back I get a feel for them.

claphamsa · 02-18-2008, 12:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nfg22

Well even in fear of getting killed by wolves, ill throw two names out there. Claph and Pumpy. I did some analysis of the N0scans that I don't want to share because it is inconclusive and if I am right I will be killed. Just to say, Claph came up as a wolf. Second, Pumpy, I dont know how you usually act in these things but you have tried to stay active while adding nothing at all. Im going to hold on my vote for a while but those are my two favorites...Also with the confirmed info we have Heinz was supposed to be out today, thus the no post is not really a case against him.

U scanned me as a wolf? well then either you are a wolf (and a real bad one) or you scanned wrong.

nfg22 · 02-18-2008, 12:21 PM

I didnt say I scanned you. I said I did some analysis on the scans that were reported.

claphamsa · 02-18-2008, 12:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

I just searched for heinz's posts in here and he has a handful, but none of them say he won't be here. I'm curious as to where you got this information.

were freinds.... Were in 2 OOTP leagues and 2 BBCF leagues and play WW on 2 boards together. HE never said he wouldnt be around... but he is NVER on on the weekend (family time)

Passacaglia · 02-18-2008, 12:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I think that this is most likely correct.

I've been glad to see others do the statisical analysis that I find that I do so often.

Pass talked about how 10% is nearly as good as 90%. I'm not sure I agree with that, but further even that is true how do we go about finding out those numbers? Doing that seems like it is one of the most important things we can do to win this game. Failing our ability to do that, I don't see anyway to play it except as a very traditional game of WW with a hell of a lot of extra, false, info out there.

For path: Can you clarify exactly how the scans work? Let's say you did your 5d20 and I rolled a 20. I then send in a scan. Presumably there is a dice roll at this point. Let's say I fail. Do I receive the "wrong" response automatically? Or is there a second roll (presumably 50/50) to determine what result I get?

I think path answered this for me on the first page, to say that if you fail, you get the wrong answer automatically.

claphamsa · 02-18-2008, 12:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nfg22

I didnt say I scanned you. I said I did some analysis on the scans that were reported.

what annalysys could you possibly do?

Barkeep49 · 02-18-2008, 12:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nfg22

KILL ME!!!!! Seriously, vote for me you wolf...if you vote for me it just shows you are a wolf and scared of my uber skills.

I'm neither. I Just don't like people who try and make themselves immune from voting in that way. I don't like runaway votes. Let's give ourselves a second target.

Vote nfg22

Greyroofoo · 02-18-2008, 12:23 PM

So I'm thinking tonight that we should focus our scans on 3-4 people tonight, maybe dividing the people in the scanning groups up alphabetically or something to help avoid wolf mischief.

Barkeep49 · 02-18-2008, 12:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I think path answered this for me on the first page, to say that if you fail, you get the wrong answer automatically.

I agree, that's what he said back on page 1. This only means it's THAT much more important to then find out what percentages people are rolling with. In fact for our night scans to have ANY validity at all we've got to find out that info.

nfg22 · 02-18-2008, 12:25 PM

Yes!I am a target!Thats cool. My analysis was not very good or conclusive but I dont want to say how I got it. Basically on this first day, especially with all villager scans so far we cannot really say anyone is a wolf. So I threw out some weak assumptions. Dont put too much stock in what I say. I just love numbers and patterns so I am pretty active right now.

nfg22 · 02-18-2008, 12:26 PM

Grey that is pretty much perfect. If we concentrate our votes on 2-4, we should get varied answers and pretty quickly figure out who has what percentage.

Barkeep49 · 02-18-2008, 12:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Greyroofoo

So I'm thinking tonight that we should focus our scans on 3-4 people tonight, maybe dividing the people in the scanning groups up alphabetically or something to help avoid wolf mischief.

I agree with the idea of agreeing to scan only 3-4 people. It's only through differences of results that we'll be able to start to figure out how accurate people are. If someone dies and no one has scanned them we are no further along towards finding out who is accurate and who is not with their scans.

st.cronin · 02-18-2008, 12:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I agree, that's what he said back on page 1. This only means it's THAT much more important to then find out what percentages people are rolling with. In fact for our night scans to have ANY validity at all we've got to find out that info.

Maybe I missed something, but is there a way to find that out?

Barkeep49 · 02-18-2008, 12:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nfg22

Yes!I am a target!Thats cool. My analysis was not very good or conclusive but I dont want to say how I got it. Basically on this first day, especially with all villager scans so far we cannot really say anyone is a wolf. So I threw out some weak assumptions. Dont put too much stock in what I say. I just love numbers and patterns so I am pretty active right now.

We barely have ANYTHING to analyze yet you already claim the ability to divine information from the little that we've done? C'mon, that's not playing the game, that's just stirring the pot.

Barkeep49 · 02-18-2008, 12:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Maybe I missed something, but is there a way to find that out?

path seems to hint that there is such a way. I'm guessing it's someone's power. Beyond that, it involves comparing your record of scans with who we lynch/dies so you can start to guess at how accurate you are.

nfg22 · 02-18-2008, 12:30 PM

I say we kill the person who has the most scans on them. Then we have the most data to cross reference against. Basically if we kill someone with 3 scans, and they were a villager, and all 3 scans said villager, then we know 3people were right. Thus giving us data on 3 people instead of less.

nfg22 · 02-18-2008, 12:31 PM

Barkeep, you are a good basketball coach but you are wrong on this. I didnt claim to know anything, I just said I came across a pattern that may suggest Claph and I didnt like how pumpy was posting. And yes, I already admitted to stirring the pot.

claphamsa · 02-18-2008, 12:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nfg22

I say we kill the person who has the most scans on them. Then we have the most data to cross reference against. Basically if we kill someone with 3 scans, and they were a villager, and all 3 scans said villager, then we know 3people were right. Thus giving us data on 3 people instead of less.

except we dont know anythign othewr than they rolled lucky..... (not that its a abd idea)

[X]- Decided to brew beer, outside with my laptop, so Im still on

02-18-2008, 10:39 AM	#207
Pumpy Tudors Bounty Hunter Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Pittsburgh, PA	Vote jeheinz72 __________________ No, I am not Batman, and I will not repair your food processor.

02-18-2008, 10:44 AM	#210
st.cronin General Manager Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: New Mexico	VOTE RENDER He hasn't voted for me yet, so something must be wrong. __________________ co-commish: bb-bbcf.net knives out

02-18-2008, 11:34 AM	#213
claphamsa Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: non white trash MD	Wow its 70 Degrees here..... I dont think ill be on mu8ch today :P __________________ Dominating Warewolf for 0 games! GIT R DUN!!!

02-18-2008, 11:45 AM	#215
nfg22 College Benchwarmer Join Date: Mar 2004	Well even in fear of getting killed by wolves, ill throw two names out there. Claph and Pumpy. I did some analysis of the N0scans that I don't want to share because it is inconclusive and if I am right I will be killed. Just to say, Claph came up as a wolf. Second, Pumpy, I dont know how you usually act in these things but you have tried to stay active while adding nothing at all. Im going to hold on my vote for a while but those are my two favorites...Also with the confirmed info we have Heinz was supposed to be out today, thus the no post is not really a case against him. Last edited by nfg22 : 02-18-2008 at 11:49 AM.

02-18-2008, 10:20 AM	#201
Passacaglia Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Big Ten Country	Right now, I'm looking to throw my vote at the two people with no data on them right now -- "The Heinz" and "The Cronin"

02-18-2008, 10:40 AM	#208
Dr. Sak Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Stuck in Yinzerville, PA	Look at the newbie's piling on the votes.

02-18-2008, 10:43 AM	#209
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	I would like to hear from everyone before I decide but if jheinze won't be here at all today that would obviously make that diffucult. I know Saldana usualy checks in around lunchtime so I will at least wait until then.

02-18-2008, 11:52 AM	#218
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	Path-2 questions Is the tie-breaker public? Can we vote No Lynch?

02-18-2008, 11:57 AM	#220
nfg22 College Benchwarmer Join Date: Mar 2004	I basically just tried to find some patterns to the scanning. Who scanned who and why. Claph didnt add up. I didnt find many patterns and the scanning could have been random. Basically I know both people I named were duplicate scans but really what else do we have to go on? Also I am not putting too much faith in the N) scans...

02-18-2008, 11:58 AM	#222
nfg22 College Benchwarmer Join Date: Mar 2004	dola,I dont think all the wolves now eachother...which is why they recieved scans...

02-18-2008, 12:08 PM	#227
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	To reiterate a point above for those who don't like long posts: At this point I think looking at the numbers is semi-optional and you can play this as a traditional game of WW successfully.

02-18-2008, 12:13 PM	#228
nfg22 College Benchwarmer Join Date: Mar 2004	I have an idea. Are allowed to pick who we scan?

02-18-2008, 12:16 PM	#231
nfg22 College Benchwarmer Join Date: Mar 2004	Then don't vote for me.

02-18-2008, 12:19 PM	#233
nfg22 College Benchwarmer Join Date: Mar 2004	Im not really adamant about anything. Im more just interacting with the little truth I know. Thus when people interact back I get a feel for them.

02-18-2008, 12:21 PM	#235
nfg22 College Benchwarmer Join Date: Mar 2004	I didnt say I scanned you. I said I did some analysis on the scans that were reported.

02-18-2008, 12:23 PM	#240
Greyroofoo Pro Starter Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Alabama	So I'm thinking tonight that we should focus our scans on 3-4 people tonight, maybe dividing the people in the scanning groups up alphabetically or something to help avoid wolf mischief.

02-18-2008, 12:25 PM	#242
nfg22 College Benchwarmer Join Date: Mar 2004	Yes!I am a target!Thats cool. My analysis was not very good or conclusive but I dont want to say how I got it. Basically on this first day, especially with all villager scans so far we cannot really say anyone is a wolf. So I threw out some weak assumptions. Dont put too much stock in what I say. I just love numbers and patterns so I am pretty active right now.

02-18-2008, 12:26 PM	#243
nfg22 College Benchwarmer Join Date: Mar 2004	Grey that is pretty much perfect. If we concentrate our votes on 2-4, we should get varied answers and pretty quickly figure out who has what percentage.

02-18-2008, 12:30 PM	#248
nfg22 College Benchwarmer Join Date: Mar 2004	I say we kill the person who has the most scans on them. Then we have the most data to cross reference against. Basically if we kill someone with 3 scans, and they were a villager, and all 3 scans said villager, then we know 3people were right. Thus giving us data on 3 people instead of less.

02-18-2008, 12:31 PM	#249
nfg22 College Benchwarmer Join Date: Mar 2004	Barkeep, you are a good basketball coach but you are wrong on this. I didnt claim to know anything, I just said I came across a pattern that may suggest Claph and I didnt like how pumpy was posting. And yes, I already admitted to stirring the pot.

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