05-04-2009, 04:59 PM | #201 | |
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I did find that a little funny. Perry goes on his rants about secession and how the federal government is too big. Swine flu hits and he's begging the socialist CDC to send over their socialized medicine. |
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05-04-2009, 05:08 PM | #202 |
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I wonder if we could argue that the Democratic Party has already had its "split" that JiMGA is talking about - those who've left the party for the Greens/Nader. Maybe the corresponding "split" in the GOP are the hard-core social conservatives leaving for a similar movement. What are the numbers there, do you think?
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05-04-2009, 05:50 PM | #203 | |
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You'd get similar numbers in most of the Southern states, give or take, as well as some of the low population Western states (it was Montana I believe who is working on the latest salvo exerting state sovereignty). And Texans have never really been completely comfortable with the arrangement anyway. My point about the secession numbers wasn't really about the viability of that, but rather just to illustrate the point that leaving a political party really isn't that big a deal for a lot of people, and especially not in many of the current GOP states.
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05-04-2009, 05:51 PM | #204 | |
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I tend to agree. If it weren't for that miserable war mongering bastard Lincoln, or if someone had only shot his worthless ass sooner, both nations would be collectively happier today.
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05-04-2009, 05:52 PM | #205 | ||
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In the end, both parties will position themselves to survive (as in Steele leading the party now) and the republicans will wait all these issues out until things go south. Then, Rush Limbaugh, Hannity and others will swoop in to start putting blame on the current people in power and more republicans will end up in office. It may not be the prettiest thought, but it's probably what's going to happen in the next 4-6 years. |
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05-04-2009, 09:43 PM | #206 | ||
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Given most people's natural gravatation towards apathy, however, it's one thing to say you'd secede from the Union or leave your party, and another to actually do it. I'd imagine a lot of people will come back to the GOP once Obama's approval ratings go down. Quote:
Yeah, the South would be like Mexico, only without the rich cultural heritage. |
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05-04-2009, 09:51 PM | #207 | ||
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That might be true IF the GOP was the natural home of a lot of the people we're talking about. But it isn't, at least not in the South. If the GOP shifts away from what appealed, those folks don't have to move away, the party will be doing the moving & we'll find (or make) a new home just as we did when the Dems swung further & further to the left. Quote:
Better that than what we've become/are becoming. Hell, better nearly anything than that.
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05-04-2009, 09:57 PM | #208 |
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While it's true that both parties have advanced on a number of social issues in the past few decades, those who have held the reins of power in the GOP for the past 10-15 years are beholden very much to the social conservative wing of the party, and the views of this wing have not advanced with the views of the national population at large. I think that's where the demographic argument needs to be considered.
I take the point that at intervals the populace gets tired of the same old people (Reagan/Bush to Clinton, Clinton to Bush, House Dems to "Republican Revolution"), but in every case the other party has to offer a tent in which the majority of the electorate can fit. Now clearly the last three Presidents downplayed their parties' fringes to win their initial election, and 1994 wasn't really a "radical" message, but you'd have to say now that the strongest public figures in the GOP firmament are really some of their more divisive ones as well. And there's a strong pipeline for more. It's like the string of uninspiring wonks on the Democratic bench that kept them from the Presidency for so long (Kerry, Gore, Dukakis, Mondale). In today's GOP the social conservatives control the majority of the message, apparently a lot of the money, and clearly almost all of the GOTV operation. That hasn't been the case for Democratic left-wing fringe groups for ages. I wonder what it will take for that message to moderate enough to compete again. Or, maybe like Arles is suggesting, people will just ignore it to vote for the "other guy". And the thing is that I assume that the balance will shift the other way. It always does. I'm just trying to speculate on how it happens. |
05-04-2009, 10:01 PM | #209 | |
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I hear you. As I posted previously, the South(East) certainly does have a precedent of switching out of one party, and into a third, even if they got back to the "other" party eventually. Maybe that's how the third party finally comes about. Enough social conservatism in the SE plus with a few outposts, combined with fiscal conservatives taking back the GOP and the Democrats losing ground due to hubris, and you've got a 3-way split. |
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05-04-2009, 10:02 PM | #210 | |
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05-04-2009, 10:02 PM | #211 | |
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Funny, but I feel as though I've heard that in the thread somewhere before
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05-04-2009, 10:05 PM | #212 |
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05-04-2009, 10:11 PM | #213 | |
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I might not argue that point, other than to say that I think it may have taken November for a lot of people to realize just how far we've slipped, a wake up call or reality check if you will. I pretty much already figured it out but I don't know that a lot of people had. The point about removing California is pretty relevant I think. We simply want separation from it (really more accurately what you used it to represent). Removing it was preferrable but failing that then whatever it takes is preferable to continued sufferance of it (again here, I think California is just easy shorthand, more symbolic than specific).
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05-04-2009, 10:26 PM | #214 | |||
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The biggest problem facing the GOP and minorities is the vague hint of racism in the party still. The confederate flag waving group. That fringe element that things Obama is a Muslim and will post signs on their lawn about not voting for a n***er. They recently had party leaders sending out CDs with a song called Barack the Magic Negro on it. Like it or not, this is an element of the base of the Republican Party and it's still going to be very difficult to get the hispanic and black vote. Quote:
I think that era is over. Rush is hated and he's seen negatively by most of the population. He'll always have his group of listeners who will do as he says and get riled up on whatever he tells them to. But guys like Rush and Hannity don't carry over into mainstream. They don't resonate with suburban housewives. I don't think it's as easy as saying people will get frustrated and change their vote. That can happen if the other party is open and accepting of you into it. But the hardcore conservatives have made it clear that they don't want any diversity in their party. |
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05-04-2009, 10:35 PM | #215 | |
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My take is that 15 years ago the GOP took control to with a very moderate anti corruption agenda. You know that evil bastard Newt Gingrich. Once Newt was gone and the truly evil Tom Delay came to power as lord of the House, that was when the GOP started the slide toward the 2006 elections. It didn't take Delay all that long to undo all of the reforms Newt put into place. So, while I see where you're coming from. I often characterize myself as a member of the religious right that believes the republican party needs to run from others of my ilk at top speed. Christine Todd Whitman...now she's my kind of Republican. Oh same for Arlen Specter. |
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05-04-2009, 10:48 PM | #216 |
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Those suburban housewives tend to be significantly more represented with Hannity than any other talk host. Whole different ballgame than Rush. It's not a genre that ever pulls big numbers with women don't get me wrong, but within the genre Hannity gets over about as well as anyone doing that bit ever has.
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05-04-2009, 11:03 PM | #217 | ||||||
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In the end, though, most people vote with their wallet and that will happen again in 2010, 2012 and beyond. Quote:
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The reality is that Republicans have been branded as heartless, gun-toting, bible freaks who want to attack everyone and starve the homeless for 20 years. Democrats have been painted as bleeding heart, tax-and-spend, teach sex ed to infant socialists over the same time. At the end of the day, many (myself included) have voted both parties based primarily on the state of the country and I don't see this process changing now - just like I didn't see it changing when I voted democrat in 1996/1998 and was told by my republican friends that the democratic party was done for. |
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05-04-2009, 11:11 PM | #218 | |
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Hannity's audience is almost as heavily male as Limbaughs. And if they are more represented, it's not carrying over to the polls. The GOP is getting slaughtered by women come election time. |
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05-04-2009, 11:32 PM | #219 | ||||||
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I'm a fiscal conservative but have voted Democrat lately because of social issues. I don't want creationism taught in schools, funding cut for important scientific research, and discrimination against people for things they can't control. I certainly weigh the pros and cons, but I think it's silly to assume that social issues don't play some roles in elections. Quote:
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05-05-2009, 01:47 AM | #220 |
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I can't see Palin getting the nomination (I certainly wouldn't vote for her, and I was initially OK with her as VP). After the dust settled, it seemed Palin was a hail mary from McCain to get some of the disgruntled Hillary voters after she was passed over. I can't see the current GOP really pushing for her in a main election, but nothing the current GOP does would surprise me at this point.
The democrats had a similar opportunity in 2004 to what the republicans will have down the road (whether it's 12 or 16 - who knows). They blew it by nominating Kerry. I'm guessing the republicans will try and have a more likable candidate in the next contested election and, if they do, that person will probably win. If they go for a 70-year old man again, it will be very tough. Last edited by Arles : 05-05-2009 at 01:48 AM. |
05-05-2009, 02:04 AM | #221 |
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We have the candidate for the secessionist party in Georgia.
http://wonkette.com/408277/secession...on-for-liberty |
05-05-2009, 08:38 AM | #222 | |
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I never realized that Arles was James Carville.
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I think that's a key point. Social conservatives had a significant influence in the past two contested GOP primaries. Anyway, either speculating side could be right. It might be that the electorate ignores the fringes of either party and votes based on their weariness of one party over the other. It might be that the social conservatives' death grip on the GOP primary system will give the GOP a handicap the Democrats always had courtesy of their fractured and fractious support. It'll take a few more elections to find out. |
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05-05-2009, 09:26 AM | #223 |
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I think that you need a person in the GOP who can generate support as a moderate without having to rely on the Christian right. That would mean a senator from a blue or purple state with open primaries (so they can win primaries with cross-over support) or a governor. Or someone who does not currently hold elected office. Basically, someone who can survive and raise money and get name recognition without having to go back to the Christian right every 2,4, or 6 years and suck up to them (and take positions that will doom them in a general). That person might be who can lead the GOP out of the wilderness.
Or, to shortcut the process, take someone that can generate and inspire the libertarian passion that Ron Paul did and combine it with someone who has the organizational ability of then-candidate Obama. And that person could remake the GOP in short order. |
05-05-2009, 11:47 AM | #224 |
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Let's also not forget the whole "open primaries" aspect. I could see a lot of moderates/independents voting for the republican candidate and taking some bite out of the christian right vote (esp if it's split over a couple candidates already). That's basically what got McCain through the primaries. I'm not so sure you need to be completely in bed with the religious right to win a GOP primary. If that was the case, Huckabee would have won the nomination in a landslide in 2008.
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05-06-2009, 11:11 AM | #225 |
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Ouch. Not exactly rolling out the red carpet for Sen. Specter.....
New Democrat Specter Loses Committee Seniority - Presidential Politics | Political News - FOXNews.com |
05-06-2009, 11:17 AM | #226 | ||
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Yeah, this was a totally one-sided manuver. FTFA: Quote:
I have a feeling that his seniority status will change if he wins re-election.
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05-06-2009, 11:27 AM | #227 |
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The problem is that one of Specter's appeals for re-election is that he has so much senority and can get money back to the state, etc. If there is a doubt he'll get his senority status changed after the election, that really hurts him in the Dem primary as well as general election.
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05-06-2009, 11:27 AM | #228 |
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I'm sure Specter was eager to accept the demotion and very happy with the "agreement" between himself and the democrats. This move has been about political survival from the start and this is just another blow to the gut that Specter was forced to absorb to stay on the hill. It's not like he had a lot of leverage with the democrats on this. But to act as if Specter had any say in this demotion (or treat like some kind of negociated agreement) is silly.
Last edited by Arles : 05-06-2009 at 11:28 AM. |
05-06-2009, 11:37 AM | #229 |
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This editorial from WaPo seems to back up my claim:
Senate Democrats Deny Specter Committee Seniority - Capitol Briefing
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05-06-2009, 12:34 PM | #230 | |
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05-06-2009, 01:06 PM | #231 | |
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I fail to see how it supports your claim. This happens last Tuesday during the move:
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Then, after meeting with democrats he finds that he loses his seniority and is forced to say he "mispoke" earlier. This is no different than a guy asking for a loan from the mob and getting quoted at 20% interest. Then, when he takes the loan out, the mob boss says the juice is now 30%. Just because he's desperate enough to accept the new terms does not mean the agreement wasn't completely one-sided (the notion you took issue with above). Specter got completely strong armed by the democrats and lost his seniority. There's nothing he could do about it as he had already burned his bridge with republicans and was going to lose with an (R) by his name, so he was forced to accept the "new agreement". The democrats were well within their rights to do this as Specter had no cards to play, but to say this was some kind of mutual agreement is being extremely disingenuous. Last edited by Arles : 05-06-2009 at 01:08 PM. |
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05-06-2009, 01:15 PM | #232 |
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Yep, Specter got hosed here. All I heard was he'd get the same seniority on this... nope, guess not.
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05-06-2009, 01:37 PM | #233 | |
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Not exactly. To stay within your analogy it's more like: Specter, who had long been an enemy of the Sicilian mob, found out the Jewish mafia had put a hit out on him, so he went to the Godfather of the Sicilians and asked for protection. The Godfather, without checking with any of his capos agreed. Specter spent the next week saying he wasn't loyal to the Sicilians, hoped the Jewish mafia defeated the Sicilians, and was against all the business propositions under discussion by the Sicilians. When it cam time for the capos to decide how much of their business they would give Specter, they agreed that Specter couldn't be trusted and would have to prove his loyalty to the Sicilians before he'd get a big share of the pie. Specter, now having angered both the Jewish mafia and the Sicilian mafia, figured it was a good time to stop acting like a douche and pretend he liked the outcome.
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05-06-2009, 01:46 PM | #234 | ||
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Spector had to clarify his feelings after making this supposed joke in an interview with New York Times Magazine.
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He later said when asked by someone from CQ Politics: Quote:
And before someone else does some variation of it: spector fits in great he's already flip-flopping like grand messiah obama lol |
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05-06-2009, 02:53 PM | #235 | |
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He was able to retain membership on every committee he was on as a Republican. If the Democrats were simply looking to screw him over, they could have kicked him off several of the powerful committees he was on in addition to the loss in seniority. In addition, instead of the Republicans simply replacing Specter's spot on the committees, they just moved Specter from R to D, giving the Democrats a majority of the seats on those committees, at least until the midterms. Who knows what negotiations went on behind the scenes to get that done, but I'm sure Specter had to have some input into it. And, as I speculated, the article also said that his seniority status would be up for review after the midterms, if he was re-elected. I'm in no way saying that this was a slam dunk win for Specter and he orchestrated the whole thing to work out this way. I'm saying that it wasn't a complete slap in the face either. He still is a members of several very powerful committees, and there is a chance that his junior seniority status could change if he wins re-election.
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05-06-2009, 05:14 PM | #236 |
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The reality is that democrats put the screws to him because they don't want to embrace him, have him lose re-election and look like failures. They also want to make sure he votes the "party line" and smacking him down to junior senator with a carrot of being a senior guy after he runs for re-election is a great way to ensure he doesn't rock the boat too much as a dem.
Quite honestly, I'm glad they are treating Specter like this as it will completely dissuade any other republican from leaving and, to be honest, the fact the move is primarily for Specter's political survival makes me less willing to worry about his well being. All that said, I'll repeat what I posted earlier - to act like Specter had any say in this process (once he decided to switch) is completely disingenuous. Specter's basically been Kevin Bacon in Animal House: Thank you sir, may I have another! |
05-06-2009, 05:24 PM | #237 |
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We'll just have to agree to disagree on that point. I think it is just as disingenuous to say that they had zero conversations about his roles on Senate committees as part of the Democratic caucus.
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05-06-2009, 06:06 PM | #238 |
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This Politico article seems to suggest Specter is less than happy about the arrangement.
Meltdown: Specter stands alone
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05-06-2009, 06:11 PM | #239 |
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Oh, they had conversations. The democrats told him that he would be dropped down to a junior senator level. At which point, to quote Kevin Bacon, Specter said "Thank you sir, may I have another"
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05-06-2009, 06:17 PM | #240 | |
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Last edited by Arles : 05-06-2009 at 06:17 PM. |
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05-06-2009, 06:20 PM | #241 |
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That is unreal. How can you vote to change somebody's tenure like that? Isn't that defying reality? Sorta like the NFL owners getting together and voting that a particular player is a rookie again? I don't understand how something like that could be subject to a vote. We all know how long he has been in the Senate.
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05-06-2009, 07:23 PM | #242 |
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PA primary voters might as well get nominate a proper Democrat with Spector losing his tenure. If he wins the primary this will hurt him in the election.
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05-06-2009, 07:42 PM | #243 | |
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This is Harry Reid we're talking about - perhaps the least tactically astute Senate Majority Leader ever. It's altogether possible that Reid gave Specter the impression he could keep his seniority, and then backtracked on this when senior Democrats found out and got angry about it. I'm only half-kidding. |
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05-06-2009, 07:55 PM | #244 |
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flere, I think you are dead on with that assessment. The more I watch this, the more I think the entire senate is a joke right now.
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05-06-2009, 08:08 PM | #245 |
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And I actually wrote that before reading the Politico article Cam linked. If you read that article it becomes even more clear how many Democratic senators were in the dark about the details surrounding this.
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05-06-2009, 08:23 PM | #246 | |
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05-06-2009, 09:00 PM | #247 |
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I don't think it's surprising. They'll hold this and the Democratic primary over his head to ensure he votes with them on health care and supreme court justices. The Dems probably feel they got burnt with Lieberman and are being more careful.
Personally, why wouldn't he go to the end of the line? He chose to switch parties. I would be pissed if I was a Democrat who had paid his dues and had to move behind Specter. |
05-06-2009, 09:26 PM | #248 | |
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That wouldn't work because anyone can change party registration at any time. The ;ongest serving congressmen could just claim to be whatever party is in power long enough to stay in control of their committees.
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05-07-2009, 08:43 AM | #249 | ||
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05-07-2009, 10:22 AM | #250 | |
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I agree with you in principle, but the way Reid handled looks pretty seedy. |
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