WW - Nightmare Before Christmas (Game Over - Wolves Win!!!)

[DaddyTorgo]

UNVOTE LATHUM

(just to be clear, that was just a joke vote since he didn't tell me he was in town - of course I didn't tell him when I flew into Seattle for 1 night 2 weeks back).

I like the idea (CW's analysis i think?) of assuming we were villager/neutral last night and looking for the third wolf in the people who stayed away from saldana+me last night.

What's that list look like...hmmm

[DaddyTorgo]

So the list of who people voted for that wasn't saldana or me is below, along with the voters

PackerFanatic 2 - Coffee Warlord (82), Darth Vilus (92)
Chief Rum 1 - Passacaglia (73)

Interesting that CW (I think right?) put forth this line of thought when he's one of the people likely to be looked at via it. That screams un-wolfish to me, so a + for his trust. No such + for Darth...actually that's quite an interesting vote by him, 10 posts later trying to dump a vote on someone. Balanced out a little by how excited he was to see me lynched (un-wolfish to let that show).

Passacaglia is interesting there on Chief Rum.

Looking at all those, I might vote Darth tonight - that's sort of where my thinking is now.

[Autumn]

Did we have any non-votes? Raider's Army obviously. Oh and PackerFan, right?

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Looking at all those, I might vote Darth tonight - that's sort of where my thinking is now.

As I brought up earlier, his (DV's) posts around the deadline were kinda odd, to say the least.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

As I brought up earlier, his (DV's) posts around the deadline were kinda odd, to say the least.

Yes - but almost too blatantly odd to be wolfy, which is giving me pause and actually making me look towards Pass as the other person...

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Danny puts a first vote on Saldana (well second but there was an unvote). I then put a first (though I though there was one still) on Darth. So we have three poeple looking for a new candidate at this point. Candidates already on teh block are DT, PF and Chief. The fact that PF was close to the lead at this point has been overlooked.

Thou hast made an interesting point here.

Though to play Devil's Advocate, 2 votes isn't usually perceived as 'close to the lead' in my mind, even if, in reality, he was close.

[saldana]

first of all, this is awesome that there were actually a full page of posts to go through...this is how WW is supposed to be!

looking at the way the votes for me fell, i can give autumn a bit of a pass...his timing looked like he was just trying to add a second horse to the race. the one that jumps out at me is Darth, so thats where i am going to go today.

vote darth vilius

[DaddyTorgo]

Maybe a Darth vs. Pass vote? Put up two of the folks who didn't vote for saldana or me?

[Autumn]

I can see all the arguments being made. I'm going to stick with my vote for now 'cause it feels solid to me, but I'll always move if it makes sense later.

[thejuggler3]

Hahaha, DV I was about to mention how you "conveniently" left out Coffee, but I think you're a bit above reproach at this point.

The one thing that hasn't been mentioned that I'm curious about is what the wolves got out of last night. EagleFan mentioned that he would PM them with what they gained. We got "Jack" as a straight-up villager (when he could have been a wolf), which is pretty nice. Could they have another wolf? That would be a pretty big bonus for the wolf side, so I'm not sure it's that, but it's got to be something good...

As of right now, I'm not assuming anything in terms of the number of villagers, wolves, etc. That is, unless EagleFan wants to confirm that the number of wolves are the same as the start (crosses fingers).

Just thought I'd throw that out there.

[Coffee Warlord]

Barring some blinding new burst of insight, I'm going to hop on board with Autumn's analysis.

Vote PackersFanatic

[PackerFanatic]

CW is just spiteful

You won't gain anything from lynching me other than a potentially good vote history. I am beginning to think either Autumn or CW is a wolf.

[PackerFanatic]

dola, and that is simply based on their push towards me.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

dola, and that is simply based on their push towards me.

Everybody's got to push somebody, right? I looked through the vote history and picked a target. That's not a wolf move, that's just how to play Werewolf.

What thoughts do you have about where to vote? We're all still waiting for a great candidate I think.

[PackerFanatic]

And with it being day 2 and the fact we targeted a neutral player last night, we aren't a whole lot better off than yesterday - so no, I really don't have a great candidate.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

dola, and that is simply based on their push towards me.

You would prefer another target? A wolven target? Then name the user!

You gave a slight ding to my radar yesterday. We're too early to have much in the way of majorly strong candidates. Autumn gave a good analysis, and I find myself agreeing with it. Thus. I voted, and I wanted it done early enough to spur some more discussion/activity.

And, well, you're a Packers fan.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

And with it being day 2 and the fact we targeted a neutral player last night, we aren't a whole lot better off than yesterday - so no, I really don't have a great candidate.

Me either! lol

[PackerFanatic]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

And, well, you're a Packers fan.

Gah, that will always be your reason to vote for me, won't it?! :-P

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

Gah, that will always be your reason to vote for me, won't it?! :-P

Honestly, do I *need* another reason aside from that?

[PackerFanatic]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Honestly, do I *need* another reason aside from that?

Whatever, Bears Fan

*NOTE: I assume that merely because you live in Chicago. I mean, the fact you live there is bad enough... *

[Lathum]

I am going to wait closer to the deadline so I can make a completely uneducated potentialy deciding vote.

[Autumn]

lol Lathum

[PackerFanatic]

UNVOTE AUTUMN

I want to try and make a more educated vote myself - although at this point, I think we can get much more educated. Either way, I don't want to go for revenge just because Autumn started the run on me - I'd rather put the vote to good use and go after a wolf - since, you know, I am not one.

[PackerFanatic]

Right now the vote looks pretty close, from my quick scan...

Raiders Army 1 - Passacaglia (194)
PackerFanatic 2 - Autumn (196), Coffee Warload (211)
Darth Vilus 1 - Saldana (207)

[PackerFanatic]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Maybe a Darth vs. Pass vote? Put up two of the folks who didn't vote for saldana or me?

Looking back, this doesn't seem like a bad option. We can't put too much stock in the voters for either of those two, but it's definitely a place to start. Since Darth has a vote already, I might as well tie it up.

I WILL move my vote to take one for the team if it stays as a tie. I'd rather help the cause and take the fall than see a tie and screw us over even more.

VOTE DARTH VILUS

[MartinD]

A few thoughts - just 'thinking out loud' so these may or may not be sensible...

The wolves wouldn't have known that DT was Jack - in their eyes, he would have been just another villager (with a small chance of being Jack).

Unless something very strange is going on behind the scenes, DT is now a definite villager. (Pointing out the obvious, I know...)

saldana would be an obvious candidate for today's vote, but I'm not sure what we gain with a lynch here (as opposed to lynching A. N. Other) - don't think that The Jackal's late vote would give any indication of wolfishness (as it made things closer, but was far enough out from deadline for changes to happen). DT's vote was attempted self-preservation, and we've been told that he's now a villager, so no value in looking in that direction at this point.

The votes for the 'other' candidates all came fairly early (all before post 100) - don't know who was around and when (particularly as I'm not going to be online from at least 4 hours before deadline!) - don't know if this is particularly meaningful, as the votes hadn't coalesced by that point.

CR's vote for DT (third vote when no-one else had more than 1) looks a little strange to me - it was a case of needing to vote early, though, and I've been in that position plenty of times in the past, and those votes can look a bit strange by the time the deadline comes round.

I don't have any major suspicions about anyone at this point - will have look at recent posts, and post a vote shortly.

[MartinD]

So, three people with votes at this point - as I said in my previous post, I don't have much in the way of trust/suspicion at the moment, so my initial thought is that there's not much value in going outside of these three...

There isn't much to go on, so I'll go with the one who made the slightly strange vote on day 1 - looking back, PF's vote (and reason) for voting for DV does feel a little off.

VOTE PACKERFANATIC

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I am going to wait closer to the deadline so I can make a completely uneducated potentialy deciding vote.

as opposed to when you vote early....how.....?

[Chief Rum]

I have always been accepting of the likelihood wolves will spread their votes a bit, so the concept that at least one wolf is likely to have voted outside of the sal-DT showdown yesterday appeals to me.

In a DV vs Pass matchup, I am undecided what way to go, but I would guess at this time I am leaning slightly toward DV.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by thejuggler3

Hahaha, DV I was about to mention how you "conveniently" left out Coffee, but I think you're a bit above reproach at this point.

what exactly about CW has rendered him "above reproach" at this point?

the only person above reproach is DT.

also, i am about 2 seconds from changing my vote...something just jumped clean off the screen at me, but i want to ponder it while slaughtering some elementals for a while.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by saldana

also, i am about 2 seconds from changing my vote...something just jumped clean off the screen at me, but i want to ponder it while slaughtering some elementals for a while.

If it's who I'm thinking of, I'll be very interested, and may wish to purchase your newsletter.

[thejuggler3]

I was saying that DT is above reporach. I was going to call DT out for excluding Coffee while mentioning the other two that voted random (as in, maybe DT and Coffee were wolves, and DT was protecting him.) Then I remembered that DT was definitely a vanilla villager. I never trust CW.

I know him IRL, and he's twice as sneaky there, hahaha.

Originally Posted by saldana

what exactly about CW has rendered him "above reproach" at this point?

the only person above reproach is DT.

also, i am about 2 seconds from changing my vote...something just jumped clean off the screen at me, but i want to ponder it while slaughtering some elementals for a while.

[Autumn]

I'm going to go to dinner in a moment. I've got the kids myself tonight, so I expect I'll be gone for a number of hours. I can't imagine I wouldn't be back by deadline but it might be fairly close. I don't see any reason to move my vote at this point, PackerFan still seems a solid guess. But I'll move when I get back if it makes sense.

[EagleFan]

Votes as of post 233:

PackerFanatic 3 - Autumn (196), Coffee Warlord (211), MartinD (227)
Darth Vilus 2 - saldana (207), PackerFanatic (225)
Raiders Army 1 - Passacaglia (194)

[thejuggler3]

I've had my vote thought out for several hours now, but I'm curious to see where this is going, so still holding off

[DaddyTorgo]

I'll be voting either Pass or DV. In fact, for the moment (will be home well before deadline), just to get things moving...

VOTE PASSACAGLIA

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I have always been accepting of the likelihood wolves will spread their votes a bit, so the concept that at least one wolf is likely to have voted outside of the sal-DT showdown yesterday appeals to me.

In a DV vs Pass matchup, I am undecided what way to go, but I would guess at this time I am leaning slightly toward DV.

Putting aside for the moment that I'm not yet ready to run PF out, that puts me back to the above, which I more or less stole from DT, the lone known villager at the moment (but also with a point I agree with).

I disagree with his decision to vote for Pass, though, purely on vibe. Despite the fact Pass has voted for me, I'm just not reading a wolf from him right now. I am getting that sense stronger from DV's play so far. Also, Pass is a new candidate while DV already has votes. So I'm going with DV.

VOTE DARTH VILUS

[Danny]

Vote Saldana

I still think he is a solid vote here and this would tell us about day 1's vote.

[Darth Vilus]

So Lord Vilus is a candidate today is he? Well I'll have to see what I can do about this.

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

Using Autumn's list, I am going to pull from his "people to choose from" list. I don't want to pile on DT too heavily, so I will throw the vote elsewhere, get one more option in there.

VOTE DARTH VILUS

This is why i voted for Packers yesterday. he picked from someone else's list, tried to justify a vote, and added an extra candidate to the mix. This just seems wolfish to me, trying to play it a little too safe. I usuallt try to do that when I'm a wolf.

Today i was either going to vote Packers or Jackal (don't get a good vibe from him either) but since I'm a candidate I'll have to go to self preservation.

So

Vote Pass

Unless anyone is willing to go after Packers or Jack

[Darth Vilus]

Oh i forgot to mention as well, i wasn't gleeful that DT was going to die. I was just amused that he was so far out in the lead and was trying to save himself with a reveal so early in the game. I just thought he was desperate, there is no way that i would have bet on him telling the truth. It just looked like he couldn't be saved

[Darth Vilus]

Unvote Pass

Vote Packers

I made a mistake, read it wrong

[thejuggler3]

Damn it! I was either going Packer or Pass. Those were the two I've been mulling over today due to their curious play up until now.

I assumed I would just go Packer since Pass didn't have any votes, but now that it's close, it makes it harder to decide. I don't really get the wolfy vibe from DV's play so far, but maybe I'm missing something.

Since I trust DT more than anyone else, I'm going to go with Pass for now. I at least know (unless something is going on behind the scenes) that he's out for the villagers' best interest. However, I'll switch over to Packer if it looks like we're going to run into a tie.

Vote Pass

[The Jackal]

How is it looking now?

[The Jackal]

I'm preoccupied with this hockey game

[Darth Vilus]

Who's playing?

[The Jackal]

Flyers v Penguins

[saldana]

unvote darth
vote packerfan

not a big fan of the fact that for the second day in a row, he has stacked on my vote...i know i am a villager, so what that means to me is that DV is a villager, he knows it, and wanted to get a run on a villager and make me look bad at the same time for being the first vote.

[Coffee Warlord]

Packers 5
DV 2
Raiders 1
pass 2
sald 1

I THINK this is right.

[PackerFanatic]

Arg...

[PackerFanatic]

I don't like to vote outside of the current line of thinking typically, so as not to spread the vote to thin. But I also draw far too much suspicion when I vote along the lines of others. Damned if you do, damned if you don't, right?