Werewolf XVII: Return of the Wolves

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Pass has played in at least 3 games with me if memory serves me....hes not new

3 games is true. Although, they've been pretty crazy games. One involved time travel, and another one had some other loopy concept that I don't remember. For what it's worth.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

I'm just goin' by what he said in his defense post.

Well take into consideration that that part of the defense post isnt true...whether or not the rest is i dont know

[McSweeny]

well let's see

if pass is a werewolf, lynching him is a great thing

if he is the herbalist he's now pretty much useless and will be picked off by the wolves pretty quickly

if he's a villager just trying to save himself... well i'm not sure what to think about that possibility


anyway, it seems lynching him at this point wouldn't be such a terrible thing

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

3 games is true. Although, they've been pretty crazy games. One involved time travel, and another one had some other loopy concept that I don't remember. For what it's worth.

ya, don't count my time travel game it was a little screwy anyhow with a massive set of rules. even the most experienced player was lost in that one. sorry for that guys.

[RPI-Fan]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

3 games is true. Although, they've been pretty crazy games. One involved time travel, and another one had some other loopy concept that I don't remember. For what it's worth.

You were also involved late in a game, IIRC, where the doctor/herbalist basically won the villagers the game. I don't buy any of your story.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

3 games is true. Although, they've been pretty crazy games. One involved time travel, and another one had some other loopy concept that I don't remember. For what it's worth.

That said...I'm not saying you should treat me with kid gloves or anything! I think you should believe me, as long as no one else claims to be the herbalist! If someone does claim it, there's a decision to be made. But don't let the wolves get the herbalist without showing themselves!

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

ya, don't count my time travel game it was a little screwy anyhow with a massive set of rules. even the most experienced player was lost in that one. sorry for that guys.

No apology necessary...it was a fun game, even if confusing!

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by RPI-Fan

You were also involved late in a game, IIRC, where the doctor/herbalist basically won the villagers the game. I don't buy any of your story.

Yeah, thanks for reminding me. It was the spawn game.

[RPI-Fan]

Originally Posted by McSweeny

well let's see

if pass is a werewolf, lynching him is a great thing

if he is the herbalist he's now pretty much useless and will be picked off by the wolves pretty quickly

if he's a villager just trying to save himself... well i'm not sure what to think about that possibility


anyway, it seems lynching him at this point wouldn't be such a terrible thing

Exactly. The positives he can offer (if he is the herbalist) at this point are negligible, so we'll say zero. The odds of this, we'll say, are 70% (VERY generous, I think).

If he's a regular villager, his value is pretty solid. We'll say the odds of this are 5%.

If he's a wolf, it's obviously a huge positive for us to kill him. We'll say the odds of this are 25% (intuitively).

A basic expected value calculation tells us it is by far the correct play to lynch Pass here, without ANY doubt it in my mind whatsoever.

Off the top of my head, it's about a 20 times better play to lynch him than anyone else.

[RPI-Fan]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Yeah, thanks for reminding me. It was the spawn game.

No, the one where the wolves forfeited (after the villagers had them cornered anyways).

[hoopsguy]

Blade, here is how I would see the trade scenario working:

1.) Pass is the herbalist, wolf decides to claim herbalist and see if he can remove herbalist from game.
- Hang Pass (herbalist), reveal indicates he is herbalist, and wolf is next
- Hang 2nd herbalist, reveal indicates he is herbalist, Pass is next
- There are two herbalists?
Assuming that there is only one herbalist (I think this is pretty safe assumption) then I don't think there is much reward in this play for the wolves. They are already short numbers at the start of a WW game, too early for them to swap even if it is a key role.

2.) Pass is herbalist, is unchallenged today
- We collectively believe him, lynch someone else. At some point we have to ultimately decide if we believe him or not ...
- Real herbalist tries to lead a movement against Pass without revealing he is herbalist, we hang Pass and he is revealed to be a wolf. The crowd goes wild.

3.) Pass is herbalist, another villager claims to be herbalist
- we hang both, are down 2-0
- we condemn 2nd person claiming to be herbalist even more than first person
- or one of them was the cunning wolf, although the cunning wolf trading himself at this point makes very little sense to me

Blade, let me know if I'm missing anything in terms of a 2-0 scenario. I just don't see where anyone who IS NOT THE HERBALIST challenges Passacaglia today. And this is not advocating that the unknown herbalist should challenge the wolf Passacaglia if they think they can keep the bandwagon on Pass without having to make the reveal. I don't see us being down 2-0 based on a 2nd herbalist reveal, but maybe I'm missing something.

[RPI-Fan]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

That said...I'm not saying you should treat me with kid gloves or anything! I think you should believe me, as long as no one else claims to be the herbalist! If someone does claim it, there's a decision to be made. But don't let the wolves get the herbalist without showing themselves!

Guys, he's a wolf trying to get the herbalist to show himself.

Herbalist: Pleased don't hint to your identity today!!!

WOLF!

[Passacaglia]

For the record, when the lynch happens, I'd like someone to make a note that RPI-Fan was by far the most against me.

[RPI-Fan]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

For the record, when the lynch happens, I'd like someone to make a note that RPI-Fan was by far the most against me.

I'm sure your wolf friends will take note of this when thinking about who to eat tonight.

[Blade6119]

Hoops, the only other scenario i think of, and the one i though of orgianally, is if pass is a villager, someone else claims to be herbalist, we kill pass and see he was a villager so the outlash gets the actual herbalist killed the next day thinking hes a wolf

[McSweeny]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Hoops, the only other scenario i think of, and the one i though of orgianally, is if pass is a villager, someone else claims to be herbalist, we kill pass and see he was a villager so the outlash gets the actual herbalist killed the next day thinking hes a wolf

which is why the real herbalist should keep his mouth firmly shut

[Passacaglia]

Seriously, I am not THAT stupid that I would claim to be the herbalist if I were a normal villager. That would be a pretty obvious loss of two villagers and no wolves. I'm either the herbalist trying to save myself or out a werewolf, or I'm a werewolf trying to out the herbalist. Keep it to that.

[hoopsguy]

Fair enough - I wasn't willing to assume that a villager would value self-preservation above team success. But you are correct in indicating that this may not be a universal set of ethics.

One more question: do people generally think we are better off without Passacaglia at this point even if he is the herbalist? The herbalist is a significant weapon against the wolves. Like or hate his play up to this point, if he is in fact the herbalist then he does have the ability to protect tonight if we don't lynch him. And repeat every night that he stays alive.

Another way of asking the same question - are people optimistic about our chances of rooting out three wolves without a herbalist and with three sets of lovers dying in tandem?

Finally, why do I have the feeling that I'm walking down the same path I did defending the wolf digamma a few games back (was that Village of the Damned?) and having to defend myself like crazy for the rest of the game?

If the group is satisfied with this course of action, and feels like the above points are not applicable/salient/whatever then I'll join in the bandwagon. AE is certainly not my leading suspect at this point.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Fair enough - I wasn't willing to assume that a villager would value self-preservation above team success. But you are correct in indicating that this may not be a universal set of ethics.

One more question: do people generally think we are better off without Passacaglia at this point even if he is the herbalist? The herbalist is a significant weapon against the wolves. Like or hate his play up to this point, if he is in fact the herbalist then he does have the ability to protect tonight if we don't lynch him. And repeat every night that he stays alive.

Another way of asking the same question - are people optimistic about our chances of rooting out three wolves without a herbalist and with three sets of lovers dying in tandem?

Finally, why do I have the feeling that I'm walking down the same path I did defending the wolf digamma a few games back (was that Village of the Damned?) and having to defend myself like crazy for the rest of the game?

If the group is satisfied with this course of action, and feels like the above points are not applicable/salient/whatever then I'll join in the bandwagon. AE is certainly not my leading suspect at this point.

We dont currently need your vote on the bandwagon, and for historical purposes later in the game stay where you are so it can be remembered...i think the group consensus is hes expedable...do i think so, maybe not...but i dont trust the fake role reveal...but if he turns out to be good i think the seer needs to look at RPI who has been pushing heavily to get the herbalist lynched

[McSweeny]

the thing is, Pass can protect himself tonight. The wolves will figure that's what he'll do and they'll pick someone else off. After that, Pass has to protect someone else and the wolves will take him out then.

in other words, pass as a herbalist is really of no value to us

[McSweeny]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

We dont currently need your vote on the bandwagon, and for historical purposes later in the game stay where you are so it can be remembered...i think the group consensus is hes expedable...do i think so, maybe not...but i dont trust the fake role reveal...but if he turns out to be good i think the seer needs to look at RPI who has been pushing heavily to get the herbalist lynched

i pretty much agree with this

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by McSweeny

the thing is, Pass can protect himself tonight. The wolves will figure that's what he'll do and they'll pick someone else off. After that, Pass has to protect someone else and the wolves will take him out then.

in other words, pass as a herbalist is really of no value to us

Except for that it means I'm a villager. If I'm fake, the real herbalist hasn't spoken up. That's because the plan of attack for the wolves in this case (RPI, McSweeny) is to tell the "real herbalist" not to speak up -- that way they don't have to.

There are a lot of arguments going on in this thread. There are also a lot of accusations with little argument.

[hoopsguy]

K, I'll refine - vote will stay on AE (for historical purposes) unless it looks like there is a need to switch.

On the seer looks at RPI scenario:
1.) We lynch Pass
2.) Pass was the herbalist

Think these assumptions are required for the RPI view

3.) Seer looks at RPI
4.) Seer verifies that RPI is a villager (and we had a villager vs villager day 1 clash)

This now puts us in a position where the seer needs to be fairly crafty in clearing RPI without giving away their position. Having the seer revealed at this point would be particularly brutal if we have already lost the herbalist.

4a.) Seer sees that RPI is a wolf

This is what the seer's reason for being, he has to make sure that we lynch the wolf. Hopefully without making it clear that they are the seer.

[Passacaglia]

Here's the way I look at it.

Option A -- I'm the herbalist. If that's the case, I'm trying to save my hide, or at least get one of the werewolves to speak up.

Option B -- I'm a wolf, trying to out the herbalist. Not a bad ploy, since I was already on the block before this, and I might as well try to get something out of it. And I went for a mild target -- I mean, I know the seer won't speak up if I claim I'm the seer.

I suppose it all depends on what you believe.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

K, I'll refine - vote will stay on AE (for historical purposes) unless it looks like there is a need to switch.

On the seer looks at RPI scenario:
1.) We lynch Pass
2.) Pass was the herbalist

Think these assumptions are required for the RPI view

3.) Seer looks at RPI
4.) Seer verifies that RPI is a villager (and we had a villager vs villager day 1 clash)

This now puts us in a position where the seer needs to be fairly crafty in clearing RPI without giving away their position. Having the seer revealed at this point would be particularly brutal if we have already lost the herbalist.

4a.) Seer sees that RPI is a wolf

This is what the seer's reason for being, he has to make sure that we lynch the wolf. Hopefully without making it clear that they are the seer.

Why let the seer out himself? It's obvious that if I'm the herbalist, RPI (and possibly McSweeny) is a wolf. Look at his posts.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

This is what the seer's reason for being, he has to make sure that we lynch the wolf. Hopefully without making it clear that they are the seer.

this is my concern in it all too. Let's say Pass is telling the truth (don't know one way or the other) and now the seer has to clear/damn RPI without outting himself too. This is getting rather risky on day 1. Also, who's to say that this same thing doesn't play out again tomorrow with the "seer" ahead in the lynch votes and coming out saying they are the seer. I see Pass need to save himself, but we need to also be warry of others outting their role for self preservation in the future.

Did any of what I said make sense?

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

So my initial vote for pass i stated was to start some conversation worked??

Well, that depends on your view of "worked". If it outed the bodyguard, I would say, not so much. Unless, of course, you're a wolf.

[hoopsguy]

I'm guessing that if Pass is hung as the herbalist that the seer will not need to intervene to hang RPI, but might consider exerting influence to save him if it turns out he is a villager.

I think I'm getting a little bit ahead of myself on some of these "what if" scenarios. But I don't have the luxury of posting them tonight because I'm out of the mix for the next 24-30 hours. So I'm trying to put out my thoughts now and hope to come back to a good situation Thursday night.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by McSweeny

well let's see

if pass is a werewolf, lynching him is a great thing

if he is the herbalist he's now pretty much useless and will be picked off by the wolves pretty quickly

if he's a villager just trying to save himself... well i'm not sure what to think about that possibility


anyway, it seems lynching him at this point wouldn't be such a terrible thing

There's still the opportunity for some mind games with the wolves that might possibly involve thwarting one kill (or even more, if he gets monumentally lucky). Maybe not a terrible thing, but certainly not a good idea.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Why let the seer out himself? It's obvious that if I'm the herbalist, RPI (and possibly McSweeny) is a wolf. Look at his posts.

You should know better than to out yourself as a guard type. It ALWAYS gets that person lynched.

*mutters about his X-Com "comrades"*

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by RPI-Fan

Exactly. The positives he can offer (if he is the herbalist) at this point are negligible, so we'll say zero.

Wrong. Wrong, wrong, wrong. There's at least an even chance that he costs the wolves a kill. It'll come down to mind games over the action tonight.

[Mr. Wednesday]

UNVOTE MCSWEENY

VOTE RPI-FAN - he's pushing this way too hard.

[McSweeny]

so if Pass does get lynched tonight and turns out to be the herbalist, that means that RPI will be following him to the gallows tomorrow. One of the two will turn out to be a wolf right?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

You should know better than to out yourself as a guard type. It ALWAYS gets that person lynched.

*mutters about his X-Com "comrades"*

That's cool. I have no problem with being lynched. I just want it noted who immediately jumped on my back, without much analysis. He even typed "WOLF!" in all caps, as if that would help his argument!

[Mr. Wednesday]

I don't know that I'd necessarily argue it that way, even though I am voting for him right now.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

UNVOTE MCSWEENY

VOTE RPI-FAN - he's pushing this way too hard.

Finally! Someone else acknowledges it.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

UNVOTE MCSWEENY

VOTE RPI-FAN - he's pushing this way too hard.

He's done this before and ended up being a wolf, I think. Modus operandi?

UNVOTE HOOPSGUY

VOTE RPI-FAN

[Passacaglia]

From RPI's post, #177. The first port after my herbalist claim.

There are three scenarios I see based on this post:

1) You actually are the herbalist, and instead of trying to make a smart play to avoid being lynched are trying to take the easy way out, and hurting the team majorly in the process.

2) You're a wolf, trying a desparation play as the herbalist. If so, just how dumb do you think we are?

3) You're not a wolf, pretending to be the herbalist. This wouldn't be an awful play, but trying something so opaque early on is just not a good move.

Not very much thought here.
1. He calls my claim the easy way out, and says I will hurt the team majorly in the process. I don't see how he can claim this. He later says I will be EXTREMELy valuable. Again, no explanation there.

2. No real analysis here.

3. He thinks that if I'm a normal, villager, pretending to be the herbalist, this wouldn't be an awful play? It's so clearly awful that words don't describe it!

I'm just saying he jumped out immediately against me, and his arguments are too flimsy for such a lack of caution.

[Passacaglia]

Okay, guys. I'm out for a while -- should be back around 6:15 central. Oh, and in case anyone was curous....

VOTE RPI-FAN

[Raiders Army]

You guys are crazy. At this point, I strongly believe that Pass is a wolf. I'm not switching my vote. Why the hell would RPI push for a kill on Pass at this point if RPI is a wolf and Pass is a villager? It doesn't make any sense.

FWIW, I am a villager this time around (thankfully), but I have been a wolf many times before. There is no way a wolf would push this hard on day 1. No way at all.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

You guys are crazy. At this point, I strongly believe that Pass is a wolf. I'm not switching my vote. Why the hell would RPI push for a kill on Pass at this point if RPI is a wolf and Pass is a villager? It doesn't make any sense.

FWIW, I am a villager this time around (thankfully), but I have been a wolf many times before. There is no way a wolf would push this hard on day 1. No way at all.

LOL, hes pulling a Blade!! Hes pushing wayy to hard, i do that every game!!!

[McSweeny]

well i just read through all the posts after pass claimed to be the herbalist. I'm starting to agree that RPI did come on waaay to strong. Notice the post where i just tossed out the various scenarios. Everyone seemed to be discussing what to do and RPI jumps on my post and starts hollering "Lynch him! Lynch him!"

so now that i've rationalized it a bit:

UNVOTE PASSACAGLIA

VOTE RPI-FAN

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

LOL, hes pulling a Blade!! Hes pushing wayy to hard, i do that every game!!!

Well, I think everybody pushes, but wolves don't normally push hard on DAY 1.

[McSweeny]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

Well, I think everybody pushes, but wolves don't normally push hard on DAY 1.

but isn't coming out and claiming to be the herbalist pushing hard on day one?

[Blade6119]

......without sounding like im defending rpi, as ive stated he needs to be checked tonight if he lives i think, but i think its wrong let pass off the hook here...like raiders said, a wolf wouldnt do this much in the eye of everyone on day bloody 1...hes pushing hard yes, too hard, yes...too hard for a wolf, yes....we have better odds on pass, who made a convenient role reveal after he was wayyy up in votes...im sticking with pass and think you all should too...

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by McSweeny

but isn't coming out and claiming to be the herbalist pushing hard on day one?

Not when he had like 4 more votes then anyone else...he only did this after barring a role reveal he was a dead man...all he did is try to save his own ass, which is why i highly doubt hes telling the truth...he never hinted at it to help the team, just came right out....seems way too easy and convenient

[McSweeny]

so we've got a handfull of guys trying to deflect votes from Pass and some guys trying to deflect votes from RPI.

i don't know what the hell is really going on

[McSweeny]

dola

i do know this though

UNVOTE RPI-FAN

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by McSweeny

but isn't coming out and claiming to be the herbalist pushing hard on day one?

That's a self-defense move poorly played or a ploy.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by McSweeny

so we've got a handfull of guys trying to deflect votes from Pass and some guys trying to deflect votes from RPI.

i don't know what the hell is really going on

Im not deflecting off rpi, hell vote him tomorrow...i just think we cant let pass off the hook today...it should also give us a route to go in the future with camps starting to develop...