WW LXVI: Money Money Money (Game Over!)

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Note to cutthroats - I hate being converted in Werewolf games. You can safely assume that my pricetag will be exorbitant ... don't come talking to me unless you are planning to empty out the vault first.

Classic hoops. I know for a fact this is true--he hates to be converted. But to come out and say so? And miss the chance the receive the money that might come in bidding for him by the cutthroats? Why would hoops, a very smart player, do that? Because he is a cutthroat and already knows he won't be (or need to be) bribed.

VOTE HOOPSGUY

[Barkeep49]

Updated vote count:

Lathum – hoops (110)
Swaggs – Alan (149), Lathum (155), Render (157), Mr. W (168), The Jackal (192), saldana (198)
Sndvls – mauboy(151)
Mau – Sndvls (190)
Hoops – Chief Rum (201)

I determined that mau's second vote wasn't an attempt to vote twice, but rather vote once following the rules. The part about voting last in the post isn't as important as voting bold and in blue. If it's bold and blue I will see it and count it.

[hoopsguy]

Chief, the Cutthroats can either take me at my word in that post, or not. As of right now the only people who know what price I named are me and Barkeep.

Similarly, they can either take me at my word that I named Clap as my beneficiary or not.

I'm not defending my villager "streak" anymore, so I don't have anything of value to play for as a villager here other than hoping we collectively make good decisions. None of us have an inherent role based on the money structure. Voting for me is equally as effective as voting out any other member of the "Rich" elite. But it isn't going to get you a "Cutthroat".

I told BK in a PM that I thought there would be some interesting conversations to be had after the game about Night 0 decisions. I also expected some reaction to the quoted post when I typed it - I'm actually a little surprised this is the first time this has been raised so far.

[Chief Rum]

Oh, did you get killed as a villager and I missed it? I actually forgot you had that going, but now that you mention it, I'm definitely curious.

Right now, it's a Day One gut thing. It's not a comment I expect out of you without some calculation. The question is whether it is actually fairly innocent in intent, meant exactly as I am reading it, or meant for something else entirely I am not privy to. Either way, I am comfortable with that vote until I see evidence otherwise (especially on Day One).

[claphamsa]

vote jackall

gotta vote for someone.....

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'm not defending my villager "streak" anymore.

I feel terrible about that.

[hoopsguy]

Works for me. And I got clipped in Coffee Warlord's game after my order to night-kill a wolf was blocked by another villager. I was pretty pleased with how that game worked out

The comment you quoted was meant for dissection - I want the Cutthroats to try to figure out if I'm asking for them to convert me or if I'm being honest with my post. Similarly, I'm just fine with other members of the Rich seeing my post and saying, "hey, maybe I should make the price tag really expensive just to reduce the chance of being converted". There are a lot of ways that this could go, and I'm pretty much OK with most of the scenarios. Well, except for the possibility that it gets me lynched ... that would be an unintended (and unfortunate) consequence.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I feel terrible about that.

Had to happen sometime. Villagers had to help the wolves with the vote when it did. No hard feelings.

Of course, I did consider this when choosing my beneficiary this game

[Chief Rum]

Some thoughts...

I know some people were mentioning Cutthroats having more money to start (or assuming so). I think this is actually false.

Every player in the game, including Cutthroats, started with the same PM, which gave out starting monies and what not (same to everyone).

My guess is that the differences lie in the activities they can take or how they can bid for those activities, but the money at the start is the same.

I am also guessing that on top of being able to communicate, they will also be able to do at least some pooling of their bids. So they probably win at least one bid per night.

I don't see why they would ever bid on the bodyguard. Who do they need protection from? Or the seer. They know who the Cutthroats are.

I also think they will name non-wolf players as benes in the hopes of leading us astray into thinking they named fellow wolves as benes. Fact is, voting is the only way to kill wolves, and voting death is bankruptcy--thus no money left to leave anyone. Since wolves are doing the killing at night, they won't kill each other (of course), so no need to name benes from their own. Instead they will do their best to transfer their money the night before if they suspect they will be vote targets.

If they can do that private transfer in the day time, of course, they will wait until then or put in a conditional order, in case they are in danger of being lynched.

[DaddyTorgo]

i'm going to vote chief rum.

his vote on hoops and his logic for it is a little "too convienent" for my tastes.

and it's day 1 and I have to vote for someone, and I was just able to get online and into the thread for the first time all day and noticed there's a huge pileup, which doesn't really tell us anything so I reserve the right to just go with my thought on chief rum

VOTE CHIEF RUM

[hoopsguy]

Chief, I think that it will be very tough for the Cutthoats to win the game by Day 5 if they start off with the same money as everyone else.

I also think that they would be more likely to hire seer/BG later in the game as a blocking mechanism. Why hire the seer? To avoid the chance of being scanned. Not as big a deal when it is 4 in 17 (complete guess as to number of bad guys), but a bigger deal when it is 4 in 13 with a couple of people in a CoT that they don't think they can bribe. Similarly, it would be kinda cool (from their side) to lock up the BG near end-game.

So I think that a smart wolf team is going to make these kinds of decisions within the context of the game - I don't think that sweeping Day 1 assumptions necessarily capture the nuance of their decisions in what looks like it will be a well-balanced game.

Also, I think there is a very significant opportunity around services today that has not been fully explored in the thread up to this point. Suffice it to say that I'm going to be viewing the winning bids with interest.

[Barkeep49]

CR: Everyone recieved the Rich PM so that there couldn't be any games played with it, especially as it was longer than just "you're a villegar (TM)"; the Cutthroats did receive a longer more involved PM.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Some thoughts...

I know some people were mentioning Cutthroats having more money to start (or assuming so). I think this is actually false.

Every player in the game, including Cutthroats, started with the same PM, which gave out starting monies and what not (same to everyone).

either i missed something or we should lynch you tommoroW!! andt hats just cuz im cheeeeep and dont wanna pay to vote again.

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Had to happen sometime. Villagers had to help the wolves with the vote when it did. No hard feelings.

Of course, I did consider this when choosing my beneficiary this game

I guess that rules me out since I was one of the wolves that got you lynched.

[path12]

Well, he hasn't shown up yet, so he'll be my vote. Shame because I think he could have been very useful in this ruleset. (if he's regular rich, of course).

VOTE SWAGGS

[Lathum]

I also find hoops logic for voting for me so early perplexing. I realize he made a comment early on but he doesn't make uneducated votes.

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, we all make uneducated Day 1 votes. You knew you had this one coming ... I'll quote the prior game if your memory is failing you.

[Barkeep49]

Updated vote count:

Lathum – hoops (110)
Swaggs – Alan (149), Lathum (155), Pass (156), Render (157), Mr. W (168), The Jackal (192), saldana (198), path (215)
Sndvls – mauboy(151)
Mau – Sndvls (190)
Hoops – Chief Rum (201)
Jackal – claphams (205)

[claphamsa]

im watign on the edge of my seat to see waht happens...

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I understand the impulse to vote Swaggs - and it might even work out to our advantage (obviously only the Cutthroats have this knowledge right now) - but the more people that endorse this idea, the more nervous I get about the fact that he is Patsy #1 for this game.

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Yeah, I know that feeling. But the problem is that the idea makes too much sense. The vote that strikes me as the worst is Lathum's hit and run that started the landslide, but after what you've said then who the heck knows what that means. Probably nothing, but it's a data point at least.

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

For the record, I didn't see Lathum's post when I voted. Also, I don't think Lathum can really be blamed for starting the landslide. I think this is just a result of everyone waiting for a while to see if Swaggs would show up.

For what it is worth, I found these to be the most interesting quotes of the day so far.

1.) Tyrith suggests that Lathum was responsible for starting the runaway on Swaggs
2.) Pass suggests that Lathum isn't responsible

This doesn't mean much if Swaggs does end up as a Cutthroat. But if he is a member of the Rich, then my suspicious mind is starting to try and figure out if there is some meaning here.

- very, very unlikely that Tyrith and Lathum are both members of the Cutthroats
- what motivation would Pass have for semi-defending Lathum? Genuine concern about what he sees as misguided thought process? Or something more sinister - Cutthroat providing cover for Cutthroat? I saw this sort of thing pretty frequently last game when Pass was a member of "Team Cougar".

Absent better information, I think that is where I would want to look tomorrow. It is also where I would point someone if they win the "Seer" service and are looking for suggestions.

[hoopsguy]

BK, Pass voted for Swaggs in Post #156.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

BK, Pass voted for Swaggs in Post #156.

Edited in. Thanks.

[Lathum]

Hoops, why are you so keen to lynch me with no information?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Hoops, why are you so keen to lynch me with no information?

So you're saying there exists information that would make us keen to lynch you?

[Schmidty]

I'm finally here. I have like 15 minutes to read as much as I can, and vote.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

So you're saying there exists information that would make us keen to lynch you?

Well he sure is keen!!

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

- what motivation would Pass have for semi-defending Lathum? Genuine concern about what he sees as misguided thought process? Or something more sinister - Cutthroat providing cover for Cutthroat? I saw this sort of thing pretty frequently last game when Pass was a member of "Team Cougar".

I'll admit to having been fairly obvious on "Team Cougar" last game, but that was the point in a way -- to get myself out there in order to advance our agenda. But I think you've played in enough games with me to know that I'll correct misguided thought processes when I see them!

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, I'm not all that keen. Today's vote was decided a week ago, nothing personal at all.

As far as tomorrow goes, I think I'm more interested in both Passacaglia and Tyrith than you. However, your name is the one that shows up in their discussion. Take your name out of those posts and substitute another one in ... those posts read to me like someone posting with an agenda moreso that just about anything else I read today.

I don't think the wolves have had to work vey hard at all today. I strongly suspect that we are bankrupting a member of the Rich (Swaggs) and that there was no meaningful heat brought on any member of the Cutthroats. That is why the posts I quoted stuck out a little bit amid the rest - because it seemed like there was a chance of meaningful info to be found.

If I'm you, I'm wondering why Tyrith is pinning the runaway on you more than I'm wondering about me trying to orchestrate your doom. I'm not, it is pretty much coincidence that you came up in those quotes on a day that you were my "not-so-random" Day 1 vote.

[Schmidty]

So, nothing at all from Swaggs. I feel like a hypocrite, but at least I did my Night 0 actions.

Vote Swaggs

[Lathum]

I dunno Hoops, seems like you have an agenda

[Tyrith]

Vote Swaggs

Cash vote, playing WoW right now, almost forgot to vote, I'll talk more in a couple of hours.

[Alan T]

Swaggs is posting in GD forums on this board, but not here. Not sure why he didn't show up, but I think I agree with whoever stated that bankrupting him is better than giving him a freebie just to be night killed as the wolves will know his money is all on hand (due to no night action being submitted).

I'm assuming if he was a wolf, his friends would be PMing him to get in here so he didn't go the way that fink did last game. So I assume he likely is not a wolf, but with absence of any other info, I don't plan on voting elsewhere as he needs to be bankrupted so the wolves dont get a free 30k.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Lathum, I'm not all that keen. Today's vote was decided a week ago, nothing personal at all.

As far as tomorrow goes, I think I'm more interested in both Passacaglia and Tyrith than you. However, your name is the one that shows up in their discussion. Take your name out of those posts and substitute another one in ... those posts read to me like someone posting with an agenda moreso that just about anything else I read today.

I don't think the wolves have had to work vey hard at all today. I strongly suspect that we are bankrupting a member of the Rich (Swaggs) and that there was no meaningful heat brought on any member of the Cutthroats. That is why the posts I quoted stuck out a little bit amid the rest - because it seemed like there was a chance of meaningful info to be found.

If I'm you, I'm wondering why Tyrith is pinning the runaway on you more than I'm wondering about me trying to orchestrate your doom. I'm not, it is pretty much coincidence that you came up in those quotes on a day that you were my "not-so-random" Day 1 vote.

Also, hoops, did you not read my rationale for voting Swaggs? Maybe he is Rich, but even if he is, he's certainly helping us out by not voting. Chances are we'll vote for someone Rich anyway, and that guy is one who could be helping us by earning money by voting.

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, good to see that the afterglow from the Giants win hasn't dulled your werewolf paranoia

If the person who buys the seer agrees with you then they can scan me and learn my allegiance (hint: Rich). Of course, the person cleared tonight moves to the front of the line for bribes tomorrow.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Lathum, good to see that the afterglow from the Giants win hasn't dulled your werewolf paranoia

If the person who buys the seer agrees with you then they can scan me and learn my allegiance (hint: Rich). Of course, the person cleared tonight moves to the front of the line for bribes tomorrow.

You're not worried that the wolves bought the seer?

[hoopsguy]

Pass, if they (Cutthroats) did then they won't publish info.

No reason for them to publish false info and deal with the ramifications.

[RendeR]

You guys rock.

[Barkeep49]

I'm about to head home. I will post results in about 15 minutes or so.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

I'm finally here. I have like 15 minutes to read as much as I can, and vote.

You should put this quote in your signature.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

You're not worried that the wolves bought the seer?

What are they going to do with the seer? A fake reveal on day 2 could be really bad when it is figured out in the next few days. To stop us from getting a seer? The seer is basically a daily service, they will lose the game if they continuously try to block us from the seer, making it an easy day 5 win for us.

The more I thought about what I said earlier in the game, the more confident I am correct. I think they avoid the seer and bodyguard services almost completely. I think someone else copied my thoughts and said pretty much the same thing later in the day as well.

[hoopsguy]

Also, I posted earlier that I thought there was less value today in purchasing the seer (for the Cutthroats) than on any other day due to the likely starting ratios.

So if the wolves are playing the same way that I would in their shoes, then I think we get that service today.

[hoopsguy]

I think someone else copied my thoughts and said pretty much the same thing later in the day as well.

I think this could be Alan's WW signature

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Pass, if they (Cutthroats) did then they won't publish info.

No reason for them to publish false info and deal with the ramifications.

The idea scares me enough not to trust it, but I'll wait to see what happens tomorrow.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I think this could be Alan's WW signature

I don't really let much in this game get to me.. but I feel some times that I type into a wind tunnel. One of these games, I'm going to play like Quikshot used to, and everyone will be completely confused.

[hoopsguy]

For what it is worth, I think that I posted something a bit different than you - that I think the wolves will defer on the seer/BG earlier in the game but make defensive moves for those roles later in the games where the ratios increase the likelihood of these roles damaging their cause.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

For what it is worth, I think that I posted something a bit different than you - that I think the wolves will defer on the seer/BG earlier in the game but make defensive moves for those roles later in the games where the ratios increase the likelihood of these roles damaging their cause.

I've actually been trying to figure out how long the game is going to last. I'm not so sure that I buy that, since realistically no one has any idea after day 4 how many more days there are going to be. Do they risk throwing away money that might be crucial in their win just to block us in one day of many in seer scans?

I think we have to play the early part of the game smart... by day 5, we should still have 60% or more of the people so how we handle the money will be very important. After day 4 it isn't important how many wolves or villagers there are left, its how much money is left... It just doesn't seem feasible that they will want to block us every day on bodyguard and seer.. so I think our strategy is to risk losing it one day along the way to them in order to make sure we don't overspend for them every day along the way.

If we go into it assuming that they won't be bidding much for them if anything, we can bid less ourselves, thus keep more money available for the showdown whenever that may come.

[SnDvls]

anyone got a "not voted" count?

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

anyone got a "not voted" count?

quick glance shows Arles, Swaggs & Daddy T not voted is this correct?

[claphamsa]

bah! vote people... or Bush may win again!!!!

[Lathum]

I thought DT got a late vote in somewhere