Werewolf LX - Dog Soldiers (Game over, wolves win)

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

This was a pretty high cost day but we got a wolf, which has been rare on day one. Path is obviously our one COT and Chief Rum is probably second so I'll be following your leads. Nice job gentlemen.

Sorry to introduce doubt into that. I certainly think path gets a a good deal of leeway before we would come back to him. Just saying we shouldn't forget about that role. I should know. I was that role before the re-roll.

[PurdueBrad]

Better to have all our bases covered but that would be a gutsy play to take down another wolf. Especially with a real duke still out there.

[Abe Sargent]

Just got back (my roommate wants to watch Nip/Tuck so she makes sur eto get back in time) and what do my eyes see before me? Is that a dead DAY ONE wolf?

Pat, I love you. Do you love me?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Better to have all our bases covered but that would be a gutsy play to take down another wolf. Especially with a real duke still out there.

That last part is the most ringing endorsement for path. I figure, if we go to a lynch tomorrow and the real duke (if not path) does not duke to path, we're pretty set that he is our duke.

As for your first part, I didn't know who the wolves were when I was in the role. So a baddie duke path could potentially kill a wolf on accident.

Still, your second sentence is compelling.

[Abe Sargent]

Just want to point out that this was the First Day One in my four games back that I didn;t get a Day One vote on me. It was also the first game where we took out a wolf Day One. I'm just saying.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

And speaking of wolfy, look, not trying to throw a mess into all this, but the rules state that the wolf lover has duke powers. It's not out of the realm of possibility that path is the wolf lover.

True. I wouldn't clear myself in everyone else's shoes. I am the good duke for the record though. I wonder if the wolf lover would know the wolves? I doubt it.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Anxiety

Just got back (my roommate wants to watch Nip/Tuck so she makes sur eto get back in time) and what do my eyes see before me? Is that a dead DAY ONE wolf?

Pat, I love you. Do you love me?

Yes Abe, I do love you.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

As for your first part, I didn't know who the wolves were when I was in the role. So a baddie duke path could potentially kill a wolf on accident.

OK, that answers that question.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I figure, if we go to a lynch tomorrow and the real duke (if not path) does not duke to path, we're pretty set that he is our duke.

Technically, the bad duke could duke to me also. Though it would be a poor move and I'd think they'd rather find the seer. I'm sure I'm an early night kill.

[PurdueBrad]

Look, as this became discussion today, I'll be out tomorrow night (date night with the wife, going to see American Gangster). Anyway, my voting record is bad this game and I'm tired of defending me so if you lynch me here, I understand. Well played guys, I'm out for the night.

[Thomkal]

Just got caught up. Losing the bodyguard and the duke (if he's the good one) power on day 1 is a pretty bad blow for us soldiers even though Path took out a wolf-good job there Path! On the plus side all that action gave us a lot of good choices to vote for tomorrow.

And hey I survived day one for a change!

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Nice job Path12! I think between this and the game were AE duked off of Hoops are the only two times I've seen a duke nail a wolf. WTG.

I think you mean AC.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

A shame. Barkeep voted for path. If he had voted somewhere else, we might have had another data point toward building an early COT, which is even more important now that we have lost the BG (and the duke, technically).

I think we have to wonder if he was trying to save PB, though.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I was amazed that you were the only who did that after my initial goof.

I thought about it. But I figured BK felt legitimately bad about it, so no reason to pile on.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by path12

Technically, the bad duke could duke to me also. Though it would be a poor move and I'd think they'd rather find the seer. I'm sure I'm an early night kill.

Maybe, but Iwould not be surprised at all to see you still around in a couple of days.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by path12

Technically, the bad duke could duke to me also. Though it would be a poor move and I'd think they'd rather find the seer. I'm sure I'm an early night kill.

Naw, don't think you have to fear that, unless he makes a rather rash move. On death, you would be revealed as the duke. Since there is only one other player who can do a duke move and that is the wolf lover, he would essentially be outing himself and likely assuring his lynch the next day. So I am pretty sure you're safe from that, short of a wolf lover death wish.

[Schmidty]

Nice job, path!!! It sucks to lose the duke power day 1, but I think that getting a wolf makes up for that.

Not sure where we go now since there are a few good targets now, including me. But don't vote for me or I will cry, kick my dog, and use the name of Peregrine in vain.

[Schmidty]

Oh, and seeing my name every two seconds is making me feel vulnerable, Chief.

[Schmidty]

Double dola. I wanted to comment on the whole lying about rl stuff a few pages back. I would never do that, and if anyone ever wants to call me at work to wake me up from my boredom, PM me for the number. We can exchange greenbean casserole recipes and stuff.

[Thomkal]

Good morning survivors. Just a heads up that I will be preoccupied with birthday party stuff most of the day/night, so probably shouldn't expect a lot of activity from me today. After today I should be back to normal and able to post more frequently.

[jeheinz72]

Wow nice Day One in that we got us a Wolf. When reading Alan's reveal I was praying that cronin changed the part where the BG couldn't protect himself at all (I was that role last game). No such luck.

Sorry about kick-starting the voting on ya there path, it really was just a barb over last game when I was so close to winning. Looks like it turned out well in the end though.

Anyhow, odd Day yesterday, with 10 players left and likely only one wolf, we'll have to pull a rabbit out of our hat. Right now I'm trusting myself (of course), Chief and Path. While I know I'd fit in the same logic, Pass voted with BK for Path. So that's something to note. Or BK could've been trying to save PB, another thing to note.

Barring the day's events, I'm leaning one of those two as they seem as good of a guess as any right now.

[RendeR]

Just want to clarify that my Day 1 vote was an attempt to cut down the number of options by putting 2 guys out ahead of all the others. I got busy at work and couldn't get back to change it before deadline.

[Passacaglia]

Morning all.

VOTE PURDUEBRAD

I'm not convinced yet. But I'm worried that BK was trying to save him. And it seems like he's trying to play the pity card, being so willing to understand why we'd vote for him. I already pity him enough for having gone to Purdue, so I've got no more pity to give.

[path12]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Anyhow, odd Day yesterday, with 10 players left and likely only one wolf, we'll have to pull a rabbit out of our hat.

Actually, I think there's two wolves left since the original lineup had three listed. Plus the wolf lover.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by path12

Actually, I think there's two wolves left since the original lineup had three listed. Plus the wolf lover.

Oh duh, good call. Man, the deck isn't exactly stacked in our favor then is it?

[jeheinz72]

Vote Passacaglia

He voted with BK for path on Day One. I know I did too, but I voted first and it was purely because path killed me last game (I had nothing to go on). They actually added votes to path.

My hunch is also then that PB is the wolf lover. It'd make sense he'd be ok with getting votes since he likely has the evil-duke power and if something flukish happened it's still better that he gets killed over a wolf as far as his role.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Vote Passacaglia

He voted with BK for path on Day One. I know I did too, but I voted first and it was purely because path killed me last game (I had nothing to go on). They actually added votes to path.

My hunch is also then that PB is the wolf lover. It'd make sense he'd be ok with getting votes since he likely has the evil-duke power and if something flukish happened it's still better that he gets killed over a wolf as far as his role.

FTR, I voted before BK.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Morning all.

VOTE PURDUEBRAD

I'm not convinced yet. But I'm worried that BK was trying to save him. And it seems like he's trying to play the pity card, being so willing to understand why we'd vote for him. I already pity him enough for having gone to Purdue, so I've got no more pity to give.

This is exactly my thought, but I have one other. No seer goes anywhere except to scan PB last night - it's the obvious place to look. He was acting oddly, BK may have saved him, and he was the next top vote getter - he makes perfect sense as a scan.

If a seer nails a second wolf on a scan, I'd reveal, because then we would be down to one. If I don't hear from a seer today, I'm going to be less likely to vote PB.

Although, to be fair, we have that one good and one bad seer thing going on, which means if both scanned PB, one will turn up wolf and the other dog.

That's funky, and I'm not sure how it changes the dynamic, but it may.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Anxiety

This is exactly my thought, but I have one other. No seer goes anywhere except to scan PB last night - it's the obvious place to look. He was acting oddly, BK may have saved him, and he was the next top vote getter - he makes perfect sense as a scan.

If a seer nails a second wolf on a scan, I'd reveal, because then we would be down to one. If I don't hear from a seer today, I'm going to be less likely to vote PB.

Although, to be fair, we have that one good and one bad seer thing going on, which means if both scanned PB, one will turn up wolf and the other dog.

That's funky, and I'm not sure how it changes the dynamic, but it may.

Actually, the good seer spots PB as a wolf, and the fake seer gets a random response.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

FTR, I voted before BK.

True, but within one minute of each other and then BK says that he hadn't seen yours (which seemed fishy to me upon first read to begin with).

Could've been two wolves trying to decide where to put their votes via PM and voting.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

True, but within one minute of each other and then BK says that he hadn't seen yours (which seemed fishy to me upon first read to begin with).

Could've been two wolves trying to decide where to put their votes via PM and voting.

Why would two wolves vote for the same guy at the same time?

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Why would two wolves vote for the same guy at the same time?

Miscommunication. It's possible.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Miscommunication. It's possible.

Yeah, it's possible. But LESS likely than the idea that I'm a villager.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Yeah, it's possible. But LESS likely than the idea that I'm a villager.

Possibly true. Realistically I like the thought process Anxiety mentioned. I'd agree that if a seer gets a confirmed wolf on PB, he should just come out with it. If it's the real seer, then we're down to 1 wolf anyhow. If it's the fake one, then no loss for us really.

Aside from that there isn't much to go on, I don't see a point of voting for PB just yet, and heading down my list of candidates, you'd be next on the premise I pointed out.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Possibly true. Realistically I like the thought process Anxiety mentioned. I'd agree that if a seer gets a confirmed wolf on PB, he should just come out with it. If it's the real seer, then we're down to 1 wolf anyhow. If it's the fake one, then no loss for us really.

Aside from that there isn't much to go on, I don't see a point of voting for PB just yet, and heading down my list of candidates, you'd be next on the premise I pointed out.

Fair enough. I still don't see what is behind your premise other than "it's possible" -- but I'm not going to sweat it yet.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Fair enough. I still don't see what is behind your premise other than "it's possible" -- but I'm not going to sweat it yet.

My premise is "This person voted with a known wolf". That fits only two people, me and you, and I know I"m just a dog.

But yeah, unless someone agrees with me I wouldn't worry about it either!

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

My premise is "This person voted with a known wolf". That fits only two people, me and you, and I know I"m just a dog.

But yeah, unless someone agrees with me I wouldn't worry about it either!

And PB.

[PurdueBrad]

Hey guys, I'm in and out more than I thought I would be today which isn't so bad given yesterday. Pass, I still stand by the fact that I'm a villager. I don't think I have anything else to defend other than the fact that my voting was horrid yesterday (but both were self-defense votes if that matters). I'm going to go a different route and see what shakes loose:

no lynch until we get possible word from the seer. Although I'm still not sure we want a reveal here but I guess with only two wolves, if they've hit on one, that does leave just one for us to ferret out.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Hey guys, I'm in and out more than I thought I would be today which isn't so bad given yesterday. Pass, I still stand by the fact that I'm a villager. I don't think I have anything else to defend other than the fact that my voting was horrid yesterday (but both were self-defense votes if that matters). I'm going to go a different route and see what shakes loose:

no lynch until we get possible word from the seer. Although I'm still not sure we want a reveal here but I guess with only two wolves, if they've hit on one, that does leave just one for us to ferret out.

PB, my beef with you isn't so much your voting -- it's that Barkeep seemed interested in saving you. He said he suspected that we were villager/villager -- and he may have been telling the truth about that, but it does seem like he went out of his way not to vote for you yesterday.

As for the seer, I think there's too many variables for someone to come out and say what they've got on PB, considering it would make them a target, and they don't even know if what they have is true. If we really think the seers scanned PB, why not kill him to give them a chance to figure out which seer they are?

[PurdueBrad]

I figured your problem wasn't my voting but I wanted to lay out there that frankly my voting was awful.

I guess I was hoping a seer could clear me or at least finger (minds out of the gutter) someone else.

Yeah, as soon as BK came up wolf, I knew that it would only further cast doubt on me because of his late vote. This isn't a surprise and I feel lucky to have avoided the lynch last night. I have little more of a read today than I did yesterday hence my no lynch but I don't want to get into a third situation where I've got a vote on a villager for no particular reason. If I need to again go self-defense, I will but will follow Chief and Path's leads today.

[path12]

I tend to agree with Abe on the likelihood of Brad being scanned yesterday and without a call-out am leaning in other directions. JE, for what it's worth I want to take a closer look at Pass' postings, because I had a vague feeling that there was some triangulation between them yesterday but want to make sure that it wasn't just that they both voted for me. They were the two I was deciding between yesterday to duke.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by path12

I tend to agree with Abe on the likelihood of Brad being scanned yesterday and without a call-out am leaning in other directions. JE, for what it's worth I want to take a closer look at Pass' postings, because I had a vague feeling that there was some triangulation between them yesterday but want to make sure that it wasn't just that they both voted for me. They were the two I was deciding between yesterday to duke.

Please, take a look. I've posted a lot, if I recall, so there should be a lot to look at.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by path12

I tend to agree with Abe on the likelihood of Brad being scanned yesterday and without a call-out am leaning in other directions. JE, for what it's worth I want to take a closer look at Pass' postings, because I had a vague feeling that there was some triangulation between them yesterday but want to make sure that it wasn't just that they both voted for me. They were the two I was deciding between yesterday to duke.

Well it's good to know that while I still may be wrong, I'm not completely out of nowhere.

[Thomkal]

In for a quick visit. Nothing really to add at this point. I think its pretty clear we either vote for PurdueBrad to see if Barkeep was trying to save him, or one of those that voted with Barkeep on Path for the same reason. I haven't made up my mind yet which one of those people to vote for, but I could go for any of them.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

PB, my beef with you isn't so much your voting -- it's that Barkeep seemed interested in saving you.

Barkeep wasn't the only one. I just went back through yesterday.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by path12

Barkeep wasn't the only one. I just went back through yesterday.

Right. Do you really think two wolves voted for the same guy to save PB within minutes of each other?

[path12]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

The odds of PB being the seer again are the same as anyone else.

(after voting ntn)

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Let me guess -- on Day 2, you're going to hit me with the extension of this false reasoning, that you're less likely to be a wolf?

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

What's the case against Purdue, if there is any?

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

The odds are the same as anyone else. This argument gives no reason to vote for PB over anyone else. Odds are most of us aren't the seer.

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Alan, I just thought I'd let you know I'm leaning toward voting for you. I think PB is getting an unfair shake enough as it is getting at least one vote just because he was the seer in our first attempt.

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I just told you what my reason for protecting him would be -- it's the principle of the thing. I think ntn knows better than to get things started on PB than to use such faulty reasoning -- he is a math professor, after all! It just makes me worried about the bandwagon on him in general. I'd still been content to see what happens with the tiebreaker, but I'm starting to think this is a situation where I need to be involved.

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

The fact that he missed this is why I think PB is not really after you in a wolfish way.

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

That said, pretty much any Day 1 vote is going to be unfair.

Which makes me wonder why you were so concerned about it. Now today, you've put a vote for Purdue out there right away after arguing about not voting for him yesterday.

My problem with this analysis is that I would have expected Purdue to be scanned yesterday, and thus either cleared or not. The fact that nobody has come forward means one of three things:

1) Purdue is not a wolf. In which Pass' position of being against a vote for him yesterday and for a vote for him today is inconsistent.

2) Purdue is a wolf, and was saved by Barkeep, Pass or jeheinz in some combination. In which case Pass' early vote for him today makes sense in a distancing sort of way, with plenty of time to change it if Brad is actually in danger.

3) The seer scanned somebody else. This makes sense if you realize that the final vote count originally showed Purdue and I tied -- since I had a later first vote on me, the seer might have thought I would have gotten through the tiebreaker and scanned me. (the fact PB's vote wasn't showing on me wasn't pointed out until after deadline). Or the seer might have been unsure of how the tiebreaker worked and went in another direction. I don't know.

Either way, there is a link of sorts between Passacaglia and PurdueBrad based on Pass' defense of Brad yesterday. I think a vote for one of them will tell us something about the other and is the best thing I have to go on today.

By the way, there was one other person who was taking issue with Alan's vote for PB and that is Chief. However, on rereading that strikes me as more of an issue with Alan's reaction to his votes (which I was curious about at the time also), so I'm giving that less weight for right now.

VOTE PASSACAGLIA

[path12]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Right. Do you really think two wolves voted for the same guy to save PB within minutes of each other?

I always find that a Catch-22 argument. Pointing out how unlikely something is can just as easily be done on purpose in order to be able to point out how unlikely it is that it would be done. Or something like that.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by path12

I always find that a Catch-22 argument. Pointing out how unlikely something is can just as easily be done on purpose in order to be able to point out how unlikely it is that it would be done. Or something like that.

I'll respond to this first. The point is that it's a gutsy move for the three wolves to get all associated with each other like that. Generally, when a theory leads to all the wolves being spotted easily, it's probably wrong. For example, when you came out and said that Anxiety was good when he was Lucifer, cronin and I knew you were lying, but figured that something else was going on, rather than assuming you were evil.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by path12

Which makes me wonder why you were so concerned about it.

I work with statistics a lot. And ntn is a math professor. So his statement struck a chord with me. I defended PB because a bandwagon started based on ntn's admittdely faulty logic, and that just didn't seem right to me. Despite that, I still said I was content to let the tiebreaker handle it, but then Alan came out spouting his mouth.