WW Small Game IX- The Cold War !! game over CIA win

[ImTheCrew]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

fwiw...i feel fine about you at this point alan. and I believe I have something to go on tomorrow (assuming that person survives the night). I want to double-check something before I say anything though.

wished he had surived, obvious that he was the seer.

[Narcizo]

I thought that was just a case of DT messing with the bad/good guys at the time and forgot about it. If someone were to tell me that it was significant and that DT was good then I'd say it was an attempt to draw the wolfs' attention from someone else. Seems a bit too obvious for a seer to come out and say that. To be honest I'm surprised that a wolf would target someone based on that as it seems too obvious. Were I a wolf I'd be worried that I was being set up.

[molson]

Originally Posted by ImTheCrew

wished he had surived, obvious that he was the seer.

Ya, I haven't read through everything on the first day again yet, but damn, it's pretty obvious from that why he got whacked.

[molson]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I thought that was just a case of DT messing with the bad/good guys at the time and forgot about it. If someone were to tell me that it was significant and that DT was good then I'd say it was an attempt to draw the wolfs' attention from someone else. Seems a bit too obvious for a seer to come out and say that. To be honest I'm surprised that a wolf would target someone based on that as it seems too obvious. Were I a wolf I'd be worried that I was being set up.

Well, there's no real down side for the wolf there - worst case, they eliminate an experienced player. Worth a shot if you have little esle to go on.

[MollyMurphy]

I am getting caught up from my travels yesterday. I did not get to my hotel until 12:30 last night, so I could not check in earlier. Looks like an active Day 1.

Wow, losing the seer after day one hurts.

DC, glad to see you back in the game!!!!

[Poli]

I do have some news, not necessarily good or bad. I see no reason why I shouldn't share it.

I tapped cronin's phone last night, hoping to hear something useful after the day actions. I got nothing. Zilch. Either the dude has a secure cell phone or he didn't have a night action.

[ImTheCrew]

AE are you even playing?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by ImTheCrew

AE are you even playing?

Heh, he has more posts than you and voted for cronin yesterday

[path12]

We're on quite a roll with losing seers early lately.

[ImTheCrew]

ahh sorry AE, i missed the name "Ardent" in both the vote counts and the player list.

[st.cronin]

There are two players I sort of trust right now:

Alan T - a wolf would not have broken tha tie, I don't think.

Chief Rum - if he were a wolf, there is almost no way that DT would have been night killed, since they BOTH missed a vote.

I'm not sure who I'm going to vote for. I'd like to hear more from bulletsponge and ITC.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

fwiw...i feel fine about you at this point alan. and I believe I have something to go on tomorrow (assuming that person survives the night). I want to double-check something before I say anything though.

Anybody have any clue what this means?

[DaddyTorgo]

GODDAMMIT. Good luck all. I knew I should have made my suspiscions clear before I went to bed.

[molson]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Anybody have any clue what this means?

Nope.

I mean, he thought someone's day one activity was suspicious. The fact that he was killed doesn't necessarily mean he was right on those suspicions. Certainly, the spies would expect us to review who DT might have been referring to (maybe as a misdirection).

The spies might want us to look at and over-analyze anyone who participated on day 1 in a remotely suspicious manner.

[DaddyTorgo]

dola

my first time being killed somehow on D1 and i'm the damm seer. Wtf!!!
good luck good-guys!

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by molson

Nope.

I mean, he thought someone's day one activity was suspicious. The fact that he was killed doesn't necessarily mean he was right on those suspicions. Certainly, the spies would expect us to review who DT might have been referring to (maybe as a misdirection).

The spies might want us to look at and over-analyze anyone who participated on day 1 in a remotely suspicious manner.

I agree, if anything, it means he was WRONG on those suspicions (assuming the spies even knew what he meant).

[st.cronin]

Thinking about this some more, hitting somebody not involved in the vote could be an attempt to cast suspicion on either myself or Alan.

[ImTheCrew]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

There are two players I sort of trust right now:

Alan T - a wolf would not have broken tha tie, I don't think.

Chief Rum - if he were a wolf, there is almost no way that DT would have been night killed, since they BOTH missed a vote.

I'm not sure who I'm going to vote for. I'd like to hear more from bulletsponge and ITC.

oh come on, i change my vote for a CIA agent and im still in hot water

[path12]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Thinking about this some more, hitting somebody not involved in the vote could be an attempt to cast suspicion on either myself or Alan.

Why? I don't follow.

[MollyMurphy]

I'm new to some of the acronyms....what does "fwiw" mean?

[beargrowlz]

Chief Rum - if he were a wolf, there is almost no way that DT would have been night killed, since they BOTH missed a vote.

I don't understand this.

[path12]

Originally Posted by ImTheCrew

oh come on, i change my vote for a CIA agent and im still in hot water

ITC, what did you think about how the voting day 1 went down? Any suspicions? BTW, I don't think you're necessarily in as hot water as you think you are (personally I think your vote was a result of inexperience rather than evil), but I'd be interested in hearing your thoughts.

[path12]

Originally Posted by MollyMurphy

I'm new to some of the acronyms....what does "fwiw" mean?

For What It's Worth.

[molson]

Originally Posted by MollyMurphy

I'm new to some of the acronyms....what does "fwiw" mean?

For what it's worth (though I spend about a minute trying to think of something funnier that involved the word werewolf twice)

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Thinking about this some more, hitting somebody not involved in the vote could be an attempt to cast suspicion on either myself or Alan.

If that was the case, I still think there were better targets.. If we assume you and Ntndeacon were both villagers (which I am willing to assume for this arguement), then it was villager vs villager, and thus the wolves didnt care who was lynched. Also leaving all of the people who voted for either out there would create a group of people that might get targeted.

So say you want to move away from those groups of people, you would be left with:

MollyMurphy 1--Beargrowlz (140)
Dodgerchick 1 -- Dodgerchick (94),
Narcizo 1 -- path12 (93)
Chief Rum 1 -- Ntndeacon (57)
Saldana 1 -- bulletsponge (100)
bulletsponge 1 -- saldana (107)

No votes: Chief Rum, DaddyTorgo

Lets assume they wanted someone more experienced, so don't go for Beargrowlz. Dodgerchick's status was uncertain so they don't go for her. Ntndeacon is dead.. That would mean if I was a wolf with that strategy, I would have killed either Path or Saldana.

I probably wouldn't kill DT or Chief Rum as people who don't vote often pick up heat the next day even if they had good excuses.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by path12

Why? I don't follow.

Well, because by not going near yesterday's vote, it may seem to make it important. I was pretty surprised that a guy that didn't vote on day 1 got killed - usually those players are easy to get lynched.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by beargrowlz

I don't understand this.

Because not voting is usually seen as suspicious.

[ImTheCrew]

Originally Posted by path12

ITC, what did you think about how the voting day 1 went down? Any suspicions? BTW, I don't think you're necessarily in as hot water as you think you are (personally I think your vote was a result of inexperience rather than evil), but I'd be interested in hearing your thoughts.

Day 1 Voting in my short experience has never showed any signs of anything to me because how could it? im pretty sure there are only "Night" Actions, but i might be wrong. i dont know why people take so much stock into D1's no one has any way of knowing anything inless someone leaks what their role is, which i have yet to notice.

On the other note, i just dont see how i change my vote to you(possible wolf) and alan changes his vote to a now known CIA agent and he's the "Good Guy"?

Im new so maybe i just dont get it

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Alan T

If that was the case, I still think there were better targets.. If we assume you and Ntndeacon were both villagers (which I am willing to assume for this arguement), then it was villager vs villager, and thus the wolves didnt care who was lynched. Also leaving all of the people who voted for either out there would create a group of people that might get targeted.

So say you want to move away from those groups of people, you would be left with:

MollyMurphy 1--Beargrowlz (140)
Dodgerchick 1 -- Dodgerchick (94),
Narcizo 1 -- path12 (93)
Chief Rum 1 -- Ntndeacon (57)
Saldana 1 -- bulletsponge (100)
bulletsponge 1 -- saldana (107)

No votes: Chief Rum, DaddyTorgo

Lets assume they wanted someone more experienced, so don't go for Beargrowlz. Dodgerchick's status was uncertain so they don't go for her. Ntndeacon is dead.. That would mean if I was a wolf with that strategy, I would have killed either Path or Saldana.

I probably wouldn't kill DT or Chief Rum as people who don't vote often pick up heat the next day even if they had good excuses.

I largely agree with that, I was just analyzing DT and CR differently. I wonder if this could mean that the wolves were all involved in ntn vs. me? Maybe by avoiding any of the throwaways, they're trying to leave as many targets out there as possible?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by ImTheCrew

Day 1 Voting in my short experience has never showed any signs of anything to me because how could it? im pretty sure there are only "Night" Actions, but i might be wrong. i dont know why people take so much stock into D1's no one has any way of knowing anything inless someone leaks what their role is, which i have yet to notice.

On the other note, i just dont see how i change my vote to you(possible wolf) and alan changes his vote to a now known CIA agent and he's the "Good Guy"?

Im new so maybe i just dont get it

Well my explanation for this is my fate depends alot more on St.Cronin's innocence. If St.Cronin is a wolf, I look like I saved a wolf there. If he is innocent, then my move is irrelevant. The problem I had with your vote ITC was it was done in such a manner to appear to hide it. On day 1, the wolves don't care as much about who gets lynched as they just want to bury their vote so its harder to find down the road. Chances are you wont have a wolf on day 1 be lynched, chances are you won't even have 1 wolf in 2.

[ImTheCrew]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Well my explanation for this is my fate depends alot more on St.Cronin's innocence. If St.Cronin is a wolf, I look like I saved a wolf there. If he is innocent, then my move is irrelevant. The problem I had with your vote ITC was it was done in such a manner to appear to hide it. On day 1, the wolves don't care as much about who gets lynched as they just want to bury their vote so its harder to find down the road. Chances are you wont have a wolf on day 1 be lynched, chances are you won't even have 1 wolf in 2.

Hide? what do you mean by that because to me it was a move to put me out there for one thing it was one of the last votes ( which always seems to give me trouble) and it tied things up.Therefore it was very obvious.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I largely agree with that, I was just analyzing DT and CR differently. I wonder if this could mean that the wolves were all involved in ntn vs. me? Maybe by avoiding any of the throwaways, they're trying to leave as many targets out there as possible?

Thats what I've been trying to decide. I've been trying to figure out how I feel about Path, Saldana and Bulletsponge today. And then decide if I would rather focus on them or focus on the group in the ntn vs Cronin matchup.

Right now I think remembering back to how bullet played before that I don't think I'm really going to find much more digging into him right now. Something about Saldana makes me want to hold off on pushing at him right now. Path is the only one of the three I have questionmarks about if I want to vote him.

In the other group of people:

Ntndeacon 4 -- MollyMurphy (55), Narcizo (68), st.cronin (92), alanT (153)
St.Cronin 3 -- Ardent (65), Molson (80),ITC (141)

I'm once again willing to give you (cronin) a pass for the day, Still trying to figure out Molson's playstyle so not sure I have a good feel on him. Molly has been fairly under the radar and I have never played with her.. I'm not really ready to look at Ardent too much just yet today.. so that leaves me Narcizo and ITC.

So in my mind I've been looking primarily at path, narcizo and ITC, and think if I press too much on ITC today, it will get me no where. So that leaves me path and narcizo

[ImTheCrew]

dola- be back in about 2 hours

[beargrowlz]

You can argue back and forth about whether casting a second vote on someone is suspicious or not but in the end someone has to do it, otherwise you get a stalemate that only benefits the wolfs.

How does a stalemate/tie benefit the bad guys on day 1?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by ImTheCrew

Hide? what do you mean by that because to me it was a move to put me out there for one thing it was one of the last votes ( which always seems to give me trouble) and it tied things up.Therefore it was very obvious.

I'm not sure how much of this is you trying to talk your way out of it, and how much is just not fully understanding my viewpoint on things. I find it very common for one wolf to not be involved in a day 1 vote and 1 wolf to be. I guess what I am saying is the way you jumped on ntn in the middle of the vote felt like trying to help a run away train. Then when Beargrowlz moved his vote leaving you as the deciding vote you moved it too creating the tie.

Do I find that odd, yes.. is it enough for me to vote you today.. probably not.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by beargrowlz

How does a stalemate/tie benefit the bad guys on day 1?

If you end up with no lynch due to a tie, it leaves you basically treating day 2 like day 1 all over again. Where everyone is voting for people without knowing if either of the people from day 1 were guilty or innocent. So even if you are wrong about your lynch vote on day 1, as long as its a close race there is a chance it will leave you with voting patterns to use later in the game. A tie with no lynch leaves you much less.

This of course is a fun arguement that some disagree with and people will argue back and forth till they are blue in the face. I don't like ties, and thus made sure we didn't have one.

[MollyMurphy]

Originally Posted by path12

For What It's Worth.

Thank you Path!

[MollyMurphy]

Originally Posted by molson

For what it's worth (though I spend about a minute trying to think of something funnier that involved the word werewolf twice)

Thank you to you too Molson.....I kept trying to think of something w/ WW in it too, but for real...par for the course in my case.

[beargrowlz]

Molly,

Why'd you vote for ntndeacon yesterday?

[beargrowlz]

Heh, I'm a threadkiller

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by ImTheCrew

wished he had surived, obvious that he was the seer.

vote ImTheCrew

Well, I'll go out on a limb. I don't think it was at at all obvious that DT was the seer.

[MollyMurphy]

Originally Posted by beargrowlz

Molly,

Why'd you vote for ntndeacon yesterday?

I had to leave for the airport yesterday by 2:45 and knew I would not be back until very late last night, so I had to vote before that. At that point, there was not much going on yet and there were no indicators on which way to go. This is my second game and NTN was in the first game with me. I recognized the name and I don't know a ton about how everyone plays yet, so I went with him.

[beargrowlz]

I'm still torn between Molly, Narc and ITC, same as yesterday.

[beargrowlz]

Sorry Molly, posted my last post before seeing your latest. Thanks for the answer.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Lets assume they wanted someone more experienced, so don't go for Beargrowlz. Dodgerchick's status was uncertain so they don't go for her. Ntndeacon is dead.. That would mean if I was a wolf with that strategy, I would have killed either Path or Saldana.

But by that logic, you and Cronin are just as likely targets also. Many of us said right after the vote that we weren't likely to hold the late switch to avoid the tie against you, so you would have been just as likely a target as me or Sal. Maybe not Cronin since he got votes yesterday and might have been expected to get more today....

I'm personally still suspicious of Narcizo. But I have been pretty busy this morning and haven't had much of a chance yet to really go through his posts from early this morning.

[bulletsponge]

Daddy died huh, tough break

ohh wait didnt want to post the smiley

sorry im not posting much, inbetween work and FM im trying to squeeze in WW

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by path12

But by that logic, you and Cronin are just as likely targets also. Many of us said right after the vote that we weren't likely to hold the late switch to avoid the tie against you, so you would have been just as likely a target as me or Sal. Maybe not Cronin since he got votes yesterday and might have been expected to get more today....

I'm personally still suspicious of Narcizo. But I have been pretty busy this morning and haven't had much of a chance yet to really go through his posts from early this morning.

By all means include me in the group to be suspicious about. If I didnt know me then I would consider myself too. You have to understand though that I have some insider information.. I know I'm good. So when I'm talking about my suspects, it would be a bit odd to include myself on the list

St.cronin I don't think would have been a night target for the reason you just said. Combine that with what Ardent said about him then we have to assume either:

A) Ardent and Cronin are both bad (or at least Ardent is lying to us about cronin's activity last night)

or

B) Cronin while might not be definitly good, didn't send in a PM last night to order the kill of DT or to search for the mercenary or such.

So I just feel its less likely that Cronin is bad than most of the others right now at least, either way though without Ardent's comments on him, I still wouldn't imagine Cronin have beeing a night target last night.

[st.cronin]

Path, if you assume I'm good I think you have to assume Alan is good as well.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Path, if you assume I'm good I think you have to assume Alan is good as well.

Not trying to get myself lynched or anything, but why would you make that assumption? If yesterday was villager vs villager, a wolf doesnt care who dies. So me saving you or me saving Ntndeacon, it really doesn't matter to a wolf. I would argue that a wolf is less likely to stick his neck out on day 1 like that, but we've seen wolfs do that before too. (I think I even did it before once long ago).

I'm a good guy, but I don't think I've done much one way or another that can seal the deal for people though I guess.

[beargrowlz]

Originally Posted by bulletsponge

Daddy died huh, tough break

ohh wait didnt want to post the smiley

sorry im not posting much, inbetween work and FM im trying to squeeze in WW

I think you're taunting us! 15 yards, unsportsmanlike conduct.