WW LII -- Clue (SOCIALITES WIN)

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Don't give me the "plenty of reasons" and "I have done it" answers. Give me the actual reasons. Why would a villager put out false information?

to spite people that he perceived acted like a jerk that are still in the game.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Don't give me the "plenty of reasons" and "I have done it" answers. Give me the actual reasons. Why would a villager put out false information?

I think you're being intentionally obtuse. There is no way I'm spelling this out for you.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

It helps us if we can trust the information. I know, you're going to say maybe we can't trust the info today but we can re-evaluate it down the road. But if we can't trust the info today, there's no reason to reveal it today.

There's no reason why a villager about to be lynched wouldn't lay his cards on the table. There's plenty of reasons, both selfish and unselfish, for a villager to put out false information when he's not worried about being lynched - I do it in almost every game where I'm a villager, and I know other players do it too.

There is a real good reason, the player being lynched is getting tossed and has no chance at winning the game, why help everyone else at that point? This is where the INDIVIDUAL victory gives us a serious wrench in the works. The "If I can't win, I'm certainly not going to help YOU" theory.

And further the only real reason to not give out clues at this point is literally to be selfish and focus on a singlular victory instead of a villager one.

There is no downside to revealing the clues, why is this such an issue?

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I think you're being intentionally obtuse. There is no way I'm spelling this out for you.

Spell it out for those of us that haven't played 10k games of this then. Whay the hell would you as a villager, give out false information? It sounds like a real easy way to get lynched and screw the village.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by saldana

i will put this in bold for you.
i dont appreciate being yelled at in a werewolf game


rule #1 - dont be an asshat

see you all tomorrow

Sorry, saldana. I didn't mean to upset you. But, really, I said that several times. Ignoring it doesn't in your responses doesn't make it go away.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I think you're being intentionally obtuse. There is no way I'm spelling this out for you.

Spell it out for me. Please.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by saldana

to spite people that he perceived acted like a jerk that are still in the game.

And to those people I say leave WW and don't come back until you grow up.

Note, I'm not talking about you, so please don't take it that way. That is just my honest opinion of the hypothetical people who would act in the manner you suggest as a possibility.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by RendeR

And further the only real reason to not give out clues at this point is literally to be selfish and focus on a singlular victory instead of a villager one.

Um, no. I strongly disagree. There are very good reasons for the village to try to mislead both the murderer and the wolves about what they know.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Um, no. I strongly disagree. There are very good reasons for the village to try to mislead both the murderer and the wolves about what they know.

Okay. What are they?

[st.cronin]

For one thing, the wolves have to FIND the player they are trying to kill - and where a player is at night relates directly to the clues he has.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

For one thing, the wolves have to FIND the player they are trying to kill - and where a player is at night relates directly to the clues he has.

no one is asking you to GIVE that information cronin, we only want the CLUES, not your night actions, wtf are you talking about?

how does anyone's nightly location relate at all to the clues he has? Please explain it to me because my obviously inneffective brain just can't figure it out.

do tell.

[RendeR]

Gotta log out to run some shut down scripts, back in a bit.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

For one thing, the wolves have to FIND the player they are trying to kill - and where a player is at night relates directly to the clues he has.

See, now that's a reason with some legitimacy. Thanks for providing it. Why we should go through two pages of thread dithering about before having one posted, I don't know, but I do appreciate it.

I see that as a reason that also will only carry more legitimacy down the road. The map is pretty big, and no one is locked into going to the rooms that haven't been "outed". Especially since staying in the other rooms may still reveal evidence about the who and the what.

I still see much more value in reveealing, with little true risk, than in keeping quiet.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by RendeR

no one is asking you to GIVE that information cronin, we only want the CLUES, not your night actions, wtf are you talking about?

how does anyone's nightly location relate at all to the clues he has? Please explain it to me because my obviously inneffective brain just can't figure it out.

do tell.

Am I the only one who has read the rules?

To investigate a room you have to be IN that room. If I already know the murder was committed in room X, I won't be in that room.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by RendeR

no one is asking you to GIVE that information cronin, we only want the CLUES, not your night actions, wtf are you talking about?

how does anyone's nightly location relate at all to the clues he has? Please explain it to me because my obviously inneffective brain just can't figure it out.

do tell.

No, he has a point, Render. If we all reveal and thus have some seven clues left "unclaimed for", it could help the wolves narrow down where those people might look for new clues (those "unclaimed rooms"), and thus they would know where potential victims are. There is risk to that, but I also posted my counter argument to that in my response to st.cronin.

[LoneStarGirl]

This game should be fun. I was thinking that if we revealed all our information the game would be over rather quickly wouldn't it?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Am I the only one who has read the rules?

To investigate a room you have to be IN that room. If I already know the murder was committed in room X, I won't be in that room.

No, I understand what you're driving at. I disagree about the level of risk, but it's a legitimate reason to hide the information.

I still believe revealing the information gives us much more to gain than hiding it. The risk of secrecy far outweighs it being out there, even if it aids the wolves in finding their victims.

PASSACAGLIA: Do the wolves have individual kill orders? As in, more than one person can die per night by wolves, with each of them naming a potential target? Or is it one kill per night?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

The Clues
Along with your role, you will receive two or three clues about the murder. These clues will tell you a person, room, or weapon that was NOT involved in the murder. Everyone will receive these clues (socialites and wolves), except the murderer.

Anyone receive three clues?

[Passacaglia]

Yes, each wolf has an individual kill order, so more than one person can be killed by wolves each night.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Yes, each wolf has an individual kill order, so more than one person can be killed by wolves each night.

Oof.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Yes, each wolf has an individual kill order, so more than one person can be killed by wolves each night.

Okay, that raises the risk element significantly.

[Passacaglia]

To answer RendeR: There are no duplicate clues.

[Telle]

Finally got caught up. I have three clues. I know the murder was not commited in the Kitchen, Study, or Billiard Room.

[Chief Rum]

Hmm, we have 19 players, one of whom is the murderer. My guess is four total "bad guys", meaning three wolves plus the murderer. You might get one more in there, but anymore than that would certainly unbalance the game.

With three wolves and the right placing, I would imagine you could cover 15/16 of the map and practically ensure you get one target every night. Or if that person does as st.cronin suggests and only goes to rooms that are uncleared, then you can concentrate your focus on those rooms.

I think the key question now is, is there value in going to cleared rooms? Does staying in a supposedly cleared room still reveal information about the other aspects of the murder? If so, even this latest revelation doesn't improve the risk above the value of a mass reveal.

If it does, though, then that would make a mass reveal much more tricky. Leading to my next question...

PASSACAGLIA: Do the same people learn the same things from the a stay in the same room on different nights? So if I stay in the Lounge one night and find a clue, and st. cronin stays in the Lounge the next night, will he also find the same clue?

And can item and murderer identity information only be gained from the room where the murder occurred, or can it be found in any other room?

Hopefully you can respond to some of this.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Telle

Finally got caught up. I have three clues. I know the murder was not commited in the Kitchen, Study, or Billiard Room.

Interesting. Not only are you the first to reveal you received three clues, but they are also all the same sort of clue. No, two and one or one of each, but all three.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Yes, each wolf has an individual kill order, so more than one person can be killed by wolves each night.

Plus the murderer gets a guaranteed kill each night. So I'd say that's a good reason to figure out who the murderer is as soon as possible.

[Passacaglia]

PASSACAGLIA: Do the same people learn the same things from the a stay in the same room on different nights? So if I stay in the Lounge one night and find a clue, and st. cronin stays in the Lounge the next night, will he also find the same clue?

And can item and murderer identity information only be gained from the room where the murder occurred, or can it be found in any other room?

Each night, you name a person, room, and weapon. By the next morning, if available, you will learn evidence that one of those three things was not involved in the crime.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Each night, you name a person, room, and weapon. By the next morning, if available, you will learn evidence that one of those three things was not involved in the crime.

Oh, got it. I think I was getting that confused with the accusation element.

Well, that improves things a bit. You don't have to go to uncleared rooms to get information. And we can get corroboration, too, if people get information about other aspects from their nightly actions.

Of course, to get information about the cleared rooms, someone will have to go there and hope they get information from being there, and that person might be at risk from the wolves. But the wolves would still have to be looking for that specific person. I think that risk is acceptable when compared to the value of mass information reveal.

So I would still advocate revealing our clues.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Each night, you name a person, room, and weapon. By the next morning, if available, you will learn evidence that one of those three things was not involved in the crime.

And as soon as I post this, I get a night action that doesn't follow it. Just a reminder: each nightly suggestion MUST have a person, room, and weapon.

[Crim]

Holy Crap, the game has started! Just checking in, I read the rules, haven't read my PM yet, haven't read any discussion. I'll read through, and offer any (unlikely) insights, and whatnot, before going to bed. I will be at work most days at deadline, so I'll contribute mostly late at night.

[Crim]

Dola, my first game, thank goodness I'm a nameless socialite, not too much pressure!

[st.cronin]

Chief, the problem is, let's say I stay in a room that is CLEARED. Pass sends me a message clearing that room. What have I accomplished?

[path12]

Jesus people. I'm here just to check-a-diddily-ding-dong in and there's five damn pages to get through.

And just for RendeR -- I have a role. Dig it.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Another nameless socialite checking in. I know two rooms that the murder was not committed in, but I'm going to hold off on giving that info right now.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Chief, the problem is, let's say I stay in a room that is CLEARED. Pass sends me a message clearing that room. What have I accomplished?

You have corroborated what the previous clue claimant said and given us more backing for what is correct and incorrect. Obviously, it would be better for us to clear items or people not already cleared if you go to a cleared room, but that doesn't mean receiving "room" information doesn't have value.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Great except that's not the question I meant to ask. Can there still be an individual socialite victory if the murderer has been lynched before the accusation? Guessing from your last answer the answer is yes, but just want to make sure.

Must have missed this -- here, the answer is no! Is the murderer is lynched, the best the village can hope for is a shared victory -- if they lynch all the wolves.

[path12]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

That's if you can trust the information that's out there, which I remind you we cannot.

Such an obvious point that seems so ignored thus far.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by path12

Such an obvious point that seems so ignored thus far.

Keep reading. Trust me, it's addressedm such to the point that I had to bold my response to it.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

You have corroborated what the previous clue claimant said and given us more backing for what is correct and incorrect. Obviously, it would be better for us to clear items or people not already cleared if you go to a cleared room, but that doesn't mean receiving "room" information doesn't have value.

Um, here you seem to be agreeing with me - when I say a "cleared" room, I mean a room cleared FOR THAT PARTICULAR PERSON. Those rooms are useless to stay in, except to hide out from the wolves.

For example, one of my clues is a room. If I told you what room it was, sure, another villager might stay in it - but that would be a room the wolves might be looking for that villager in. Similarly, the wolves would NOT look for me in that room.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Keep reading. Trust me, it's addressedm such to the point that I had to bold my response to it.

Yep, got there. Have a weapon and a room, but I think I'll keep it at that for now -- especially with the room.

[path12]

OK. 19 players.

6 name socialites
1 murderer
? wolves (let's say two just for giggles)

That's nearly half of us (over half if you try 3 wolves) with a role. I'd have to go back and count, but sure seems like there was a ton of nameless socialites checking in.

So if you're a wolf, doesn't seem like a ton of downside to making attempts each night, right? And the murderer is going to make their kill also.

We could be looking at up to 3-4 kills a night, barring Colonel Mustard blocking someone, and assuming the wolves guess rooms right. Add Mrs White's assassin role and we've got a whole lotta killin' in front of us. Interesting.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Um, here you seem to be agreeing with me - when I say a "cleared" room, I mean a room cleared FOR THAT PARTICULAR PERSON. Those rooms are useless to stay in, except to hide out from the wolves.

Incorrect. You can still get weapon or person info. If you get room info that is already out there, it is less useful, but it does corroborate the previous person's claim. It's a trust building mechanism in that sense.

Originally Posted by st.cronin

For example, one of my clues is a room. If I told you what room it was, sure, another villager might stay in it - but that would be a room the wolves might be looking for that villager in. Similarly, the wolves would NOT look for me in that room.

In that case, we're in good, because if every person individually will only have cleared a room at night at best. There are 16 rooms in this mansion. The wolves will have to check (16-every room that person claims to have cleared) to find them. And that's assuming the player doesn't return to that room, which he or she may.

It's far more likely the wolves would take into consideration the original crux of your argument--all of the information that is out there. So they wouldn't check a room that was cleared by anyone, much less the person they are looking for. They would concentrate on the uncleared rooms. That was the true danger of what you were suggesting. What you are suggesting with this example is that the wolves would NOT use the information available to them (the information you want to keep secret). So you seem to be going against your own argument with this example.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by path12

OK. 19 players.

6 name socialites
1 murderer
? wolves (let's say two just for giggles)

That's nearly half of us (over half if you try 3 wolves) with a role. I'd have to go back and count, but sure seems like there was a ton of nameless socialites checking in.

So if you're a wolf, doesn't seem like a ton of downside to making attempts each night, right? And the murderer is going to make their kill also.

We could be looking at up to 3-4 kills a night, barring Colonel Mustard blocking someone, and assuming the wolves guess rooms right. Add Mrs White's assassin role and we've got a whole lotta killin' in front of us. Interesting.

The potential for a lot of killing is another reason to reveal that information actually. As I pointed out earlier, if the wolves want to kill a specific person, they almost certainly can. By combining their efforts, they can cover 15 of the 16 rooms. So no one is likely to survive being targeted by all three wolves.

My guess is they will only do this when they need to get a kill, and they're not sure the murderer will take care of the needed kill for them. It's more likely they will vary it up, with either all three going their own ways, or two combining and a third his/her own way.

An individual wolf kill has about a 30% chance of working (5/16). Two wolves in tandem cover 10/16, a little over 60%. Point is, it all adds up to about one kill per night for the wolves, and the murderer gets his kill.

So on the average, two people will die every night unless we get a bodyguard protection. And we will probably lynch someone every day.

At that rate, this game ends within five to six days. Not really a point to saying that, just pointing it out. We don't really have all that much time.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Incorrect. You can still get weapon or person info. If you get room info that is already out there, it is less useful, but it does corroborate the previous person's claim. It's a trust building mechanism in that sense.



In that case, we're in good, because if every person individually will only have cleared a room at night at best. There are 16 rooms in this mansion. The wolves will have to check (16-every room that person claims to have cleared) to find them. And that's assuming the player doesn't return to that room, which he or she may.

It's far more likely the wolves would take into consideration the original crux of your argument--all of the information that is out there. So they wouldn't check a room that was cleared by anyone, much less the person they are looking for. They would concentrate on the uncleared rooms. That was the true danger of what you were suggesting. What you are suggesting with this example is that the wolves would NOT use the information available to them (the information you want to keep secret). So you seem to be going against your own argument with this example.

No, what I'm suggesting is simply this: If I say I have cleared room X, the wolves, if they decide they want to kill me, will look for me in some other room than X.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

The potential for a lot of killing is another reason to reveal that information actually. As I pointed out earlier, if the wolves want to kill a specific person, they almost certainly can. By combining their efforts, they can cover 15 of the 16 rooms. So no one is likely to survive being targeted by all three wolves.

does it say somewhere there are exactly 3 wolves?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

No, what I'm suggesting is simply this: If I say I have cleared room X, the wolves, if they decide they want to kill me, will look for me in some other room than X.

No, I get that. Not sure what changes. You seem to be suggesting the wolves will only follow what you say in searching for you. Why wouldn't they take advantage of all the information that is out there? That was the sticking point of your earlier argument, actually--that by getting all the room information out there, we risked leaving the wolves with a small number of uncleared rooms with which to find us.

What you are now suggesting seems to be that the wolves would ignore all that information (which would work against your original objection) and stick with only what you yourself say about clearing a room. I would say losing 1/16 every night isn't going to significantly increase your risk, and if you were worried, there is nothing stopping you from going back to one of your cleared rooms and hoping you instead get a clue about an item or a person.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Lathum

does it say somewhere there are exactly 3 wolves?

No, that's my assumption. I posted a little above about that. But, yes, you're right, it's more likely if it's not three wolves, that it will be four, then two. Two is way too small, but four a little more understandable.

Still, considering that there is also a murderer afoot, I think four bad guys is a reasonable guess for 19 players. What do you think?

[Crim]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

No, what I'm suggesting is simply this: If I say I have cleared room X, the wolves, if they decide they want to kill me, will look for me in some other room than X.

Okee, caught up... I have three clues, only two of which I'll share: SnDvls is not the murderer (obviously I have no opinion yet on his lycanthropy situation), and the murder was not commited with the Frying Pan.

I also know a room that's clear, but I'll choose not to share it atm, for the same reasons that Cronin has been preaching.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

No, I get that. Not sure what changes. You seem to be suggesting the wolves will only follow what you say in searching for you. Why wouldn't they take advantage of all the information that is out there? That was the sticking point of your earlier argument, actually--that by getting all the room information out there, we risked leaving the wolves with a small number of uncleared rooms with which to find us.

What you are now suggesting seems to be that the wolves would ignore all that information (which would work against your original objection) and stick with only what you yourself say about clearing a room. I would say losing 1/16 every night isn't going to significantly increase your risk, and if you were worried, there is nothing stopping you from going back to one of your cleared rooms and hoping you instead get a clue about an item or a person.

No, my objection has been that THERE IS NO REASON FOR US TO TRUST THAT ANYBODY, VILLAGER OR WOLF, IS PUTTING FORWARD GOOD INFORMATION. Now you are trying to engage me in the reasons why, which as I have said are myriad.

[Crim]

Having said that, I do think there is value in everyone sharing thier non-room clues. As CR points out, this info will likely become more valuable in the future, as we're able to start constructing a COT.

I'm curious, though, does anyone have an opinion of whether someone who is attacked but protected by Col. Mustard gets any info? Will they even be notified that they were attacked? If not, it's going to be hard to corroborate any bodyguard reveal.

Also, will we know if Mr. Green (or Prof Plum) scans us? I've prolly only read through about five WW games, and generally the scannee gets some sort of info, yes?