The NBA 2014 Offseason Thread

[DaddyTorgo]

Well played Bishop.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by nol

My initial point (that completely went over your head) was that the Lakers were obviously not reaching out independently to the Warriors to try to get Thompson for the seventh pick. Use your head - when a player's mentioned as possibly being traded to two separate teams, and neither deal makes perfect sense for the teams that would be acquiring him, you can be confident that his own team is open to parting with him. If you want to talk about not following the story, here's this: http://www.latimes.com/sports/lakers...620-story.html

The Lakers contacted the Warriors about making it a 3-way deal and were turned away. What does that have to do with the Timberwolves not wanting Klay Thompson? Where do you see in that article it saying the Wolves don't want Klay Thompson in a trade? As for whether the Wolves want Klay involved.

Twitter / Chris_Broussard: Source: No way GState trading ...
Twitter / Chris_Broussard: Serious game of chicken: source ...
Twitter / ramonashelburne: The Lakers have indeed called ...
Twitter / BaxterHolmes: Source added that the deal ...

Originally Posted by nol

No, I'm arguing that the players who do that really don't cost themselves that much money over the course of their careers; they just spend a few seasons being grossly overpaid for their performance and then sign below market value on their next contract - it averages out. It's more harmful to a team that wastes cap room on them.

When it comes to losing money, wait and see what Diaw is offered and eventually signs for. If he gets $8-9 million per season he didn't cost himself "tens of millions of dollars," he got to go from a crappy team to one that won a championship and allowed him to best showcase his skills for this coming contract at the cost of playing 2 seasons slightly below his market value. Similarly, Klay Thompson could get traded to Minnesota, pout his way through the entire season, and there will still be a team that comes through with a $10+ million/year offer for him in restricted free agency that Minnesota would have to match.

So playing poorly has no impact on a player's earnings. NBA salaries work on some cosmic yin-yang system where you can purposely play bad and you'll make just as much money if you purposely played good.

[nol]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

So playing poorly has no impact on a player's earnings. NBA salaries work on some cosmic yin-yang system where you can purposely play bad and you'll make just as much money if you purposely played good.

Nope, they work on fairly normal economic principles. Ever heard of the winner's curse? If a team offers a player enough money that he simply cannot say no, it's extremely likely that said team is severely overvaluing that player. An overpaid player on a bad team then becomes a risk that most other teams want to stay away from, making them more likely to sign cheaply with a contender for their next contract now that there isn't some team willing to come through with a huge offer.

Classic RainMaker retreat by the way; start off saying that by paying for an NBA player's services, you automatically get his best effort no matter the circumstances, and the players that don't give it their all cost themselves tens of millions of dollars in future earnings. Then, when confronted with the fact that there are plenty of examples to the contrary and the financial impact for the players is minimal, go to "so you're saying it makes no difference at all?!?"

You are missing the extremely obvious point that NBA players aren't solely looking to maximize how much money they make. Any player that tanks his value to get out of playing for the team he's on either has enough money to be secure in taking a temporary hit in salary or has other teams lined up that are confident that a move to better circumstances would lead to increased production. At that point, it just becomes a slight compromise in earnings that plenty of players make by just signing cheaply to a contender in the first place.

All you need to know about the trade is this: trading Thompson and Lee for Love and Martin is a laughably bad offer and Minnesota says no. Adding Harrison Barnes to the deal is more reasonable, but Golden State says no because they want to get Love for something closer to the first offer. Now the teams are trying to find a deal with the general outline of: Thompson goes to the Lakers, the Warriors keep Barnes, Lee and #7 go to the T-Wolves, and Love goes to Golden State with salary filler all around to make the numbers match. As Vince and others have mentioned, paying Thompson a bunch next season is not necessarily a slam-dunk move for the Warriors, and they are just saying that he's untouchable in the event that the deal falls through.

Also, Chris Broussard is far from being a credible source.

[stevew]

I was thinking Pierce and Chamberlain immediately. Then you have a bunch of good NBA role guys recently. But isn't the 1 and done thing new for Kansas? I'm shocked we didn't get a Harrisons/Wiggins/Randal/Embiid squad at Kentucky this year.

[stevew]

I hate broussard.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by nol

Nope, they work on fairly normal economic principles. Ever heard of the winner's curse? If a team offers a player enough money that he simply cannot say no, it's extremely likely that said team is severely overvaluing that player. An overpaid player on a bad team then becomes a risk that most other teams want to stay away from, making them more likely to sign cheaply with a contender for their next contract now that there isn't some team willing to come through with a huge offer.

Bad teams overpay players which is why the are bad. Good teams underpay players which is why they are good. This idea that players purposely play bad so that a bad team will pick them up for less money so they can parlay that into a bigger contract even farther down the road is insane.

If Klay Thompson goes to the Timberwolves he will play hard because he will want to get the highest possible offer on his next contract. Can you find examples of players who purposely tanked right before they were due a qualifying offer? It's unheard of. This is their first major contract.

Originally Posted by nol

Classic RainMaker retreat by the way; start off saying that by paying for an NBA player's services, you automatically get his best effort no matter the circumstances, and the players that don't give it their all cost themselves tens of millions of dollars in future earnings. Then, when confronted with the fact that there are plenty of examples to the contrary and the financial impact for the players is minimal, go to "so you're saying it makes no difference at all?!?"

Confronted with examples? You provided two examples of players who got lazy and saw their salaries dramatically drop. You picked the two worst examples ever. I'm sure you can find a guy here or there that got lazy and saw their salary go up (Raymond Felton maybe?), but Lamar Odom and Boris Diaw are not them. They cost themselves millions by their actions.

Originally Posted by nol

All you need to know about the trade is this: trading Thompson and Lee for Love and Martin is a laughably bad offer and Minnesota says no. Adding Harrison Barnes to the deal is more reasonable, but Golden State says no because they want to get Love for something closer to the first offer. Now the teams are trying to find a deal with the general outline of: Thompson goes to the Lakers, the Warriors keep Barnes, Lee and #7 go to the T-Wolves, and Love goes to Golden State with salary filler all around to make the numbers match. As Vince and others have mentioned, paying Thompson a bunch next season is not necessarily a slam-dunk move for the Warriors, and they are just saying that he's untouchable in the event that the deal falls through.

"Team" aren't trying to find a deal with that. The Lakers are. Every article (including the one you posted) said this was the Lakers trying to get involved to get Klay Thompson on their team.

You claimed that the Wolves don't want Klay Thompson. That is the point of contention. And you haven't found a single thing that mentions that as being the case. Just because the Lakers want Klay Thompson doesn't mean the Wolves don't .

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by stevew

I was thinking Pierce and Chamberlain immediately. Then you have a bunch of good NBA role guys recently. But isn't the 1 and done thing new for Kansas? I'm shocked we didn't get a Harrisons/Wiggins/Randal/Embiid squad at Kentucky this year.

Self has done it in the past but more sparingly. Ben McLemore was a 1-and-done last year and there have been some others in the past few years like Xavier Henry and Josh Selby but it was, at most, one per year. Embiid was not necessarily expected to be a one-and-done but played himself up to that. I think most scouts would have pegged Wayne Selden to be the 2nd one-and-done at the start of the season but he's coming back and Embiid is still all but a lock for the lottery.

SI

[korme]

What was Josh Selby thinking

[nol]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Bad teams overpay players which is why the are bad. Good teams underpay players which is why they are good. This idea that players purposely play bad so that a bad team will pick them up for less money so they can parlay that into a bigger contract even farther down the road is insane.

Do the math for Boris Diaw. He's the most egregious exception according to you, so the difference in earnings should be the greatest. If he signs for 2 years, $18 million this summer, he'll have earned $27 million from 2012-13 to 2015-16 ($6.75 million per year). His previous contract, which took him through the prime of his career, was 5 years, $45 million. Even if you make the ridiculous assumption that some team would have paid 29-33 year old Diaw the exact same $9 million/year that he made from age 25 to 29 if he played out the string in Charlotte, he made - again, at most - $2.25 million less per season (minus like $1 million for his buyout) to go from the worst team in NBA history to at least two Finals appearances while playing on a team with his best childhood friend.

This will happen to OJ Mayo in a couple seasons. The Bucks offered him $2-3 million per year more than any other team, so he went there and has sucked. If he signs a one-year deal for $2 million to be a shooter off the bench for a contender once his Bucks deal runs out, he'll have earned $26 million in 4 years - you can even forget about parlaying that last season into a future deal, that's flat-out more than what he'd have earned over taking a four-year deal from a team he didn't end up signing with. And if you want to get all "the players are simply automatons looking to increase their net worth," about it, there's probably something to be said about the time value of money and the benefit of having the $8 million per season come sooner rather than making a smoother curve of annual income.

Originally Posted by RainMaker

If Klay Thompson goes to the Timberwolves he will play hard because he will want to get the highest possible offer on his next contract. Can you find examples of players who purposely tanked right before they were due a qualifying offer? It's unheard of. This is their first major contract.

It's not even possible to tank a qualifying offer because at four years in, a player's either shown nothing and is on his way out of the league (or at least is on the way to becoming a journeyman benchwarmer) or has shown enough talent that there will be at least one team willing to pay. Eric Gordon did not like being traded from Los Angeles to New Orleans and did his best to tank his way out (his play took a clear step backwards and he sat out pretty much his entire first season there while rehabbing a knee injury at a very leisurely pace), and New Orleans still ended signing him to a huge extension.

Klay Thompson has shown enough so far that he could do anything next season short of completely going off the reservation Larry Sanders-style, and at least one team will still give him a big offer with the hopes that a change of scenery will help.

Originally Posted by RainMaker

You claimed that the Wolves don't want Klay Thompson. That is the point of contention. And you haven't found a single thing that mentions that as being the case. Just because the Lakers want Klay Thompson doesn't mean the Wolves don't .

I claimed that Thompson/Lee for Martin/Love is an absolute Hail Mary offer put forward by the Warriors that would have never been taken remotely seriously by Minnesota, rather than some offer that made the Warriors ponder long and hard before saying "no, we just can't bear to let go of Klay Thompson." Thompson, who will be making big money next season, isn't so much better than Kevin Martin to justify the massive downgrade from Kevin Love to David Lee. Do I have to cite a source for why every single delusional trade has no chance of happening?

The Wolves would apparently be fine with Thompson, Barnes and Lee, but the Warriors are trying to play hardball with them. The only reason there is any conversation at all between the Warriors and the Lakers (beyond the Warriors saying LOL no) is if the Warriors believe getting that pick for Thompson will make the rest of the package they have to send to Minnesota smaller than Lee+Barnes.

[nol]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Self has done it in the past but more sparingly. Ben McLemore was a 1-and-done last year and there have been some others in the past few years like Xavier Henry and Josh Selby but it was, at most, one per year. Embiid was not necessarily expected to be a one-and-done but played himself up to that. I think most scouts would have pegged Wayne Selden to be the 2nd one-and-done at the start of the season but he's coming back and Embiid is still all but a lock for the lottery.

SI

Other than Memphis/Kentucky being outliers under Calipari, all the big schools have been relatively equal-opportunity when it comes to recruiting one-and-done players. There have only been 70 such players in the past nine years, so for one school to not have any of the first ~20 before Xavier Henry isn't totally out of the ordinary. Even a school like Duke wasn't failing to produce one-and-done players at first due to a lack of trying or a disinterest in recruiting them; someone like Kyle Singler would have left after his freshman year if he had performed up to preseason expectations.

Embiid shot up so rapidly that by the time he committed to a school, he was definitely going to be one-and-done, but Selden was thought to join them as KU's 3rd lottery pick this season. Some people were hyping Embiid over Wiggins before KU had played a game.

Here's a fun list of all the one-and-dones over the years: Examining the results of college basketball's one-and-done era Since the rule was changed, the complete list of teams that have had more than one one-and-done player in a season before this year: 2007 Georgia Tech, 2007 Ohio State, 2008 Kansas State, 2011 Texas, 2012 Florida, 2010-2013 Kentucky. Kansas and Kentucky are the only two teams to join the club this season, so it's still pretty rarefied air if John Calipari isn't your coach.

[Ronnie Dobbs3]

LeBron James' agent Rich Paul has told Heat LeBron will exercise early termination option

— Chris Broussard (@Chris_Broussard) June 24, 2014

Let's where this goes.

[korme]

Well we all knew this would happen. Just what kind of deals will they put back together.

[Vince, Pt. II]

What happens when Wade and Bosh don't opt out and they're still on the books for $40M to the pair of them? The Heat could be really freaking terrible next season.

[Ronnie Dobbs3]

Wade would be foolish to opt out, I would think - would Riley even bring him back?

[SackAttack]

I just want to see James do another "Decision" special this year.

Just for the lulz.

[BillJasper]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

I just want to see James do another "Decision" special this year.

Just for the lulz.

I would hope James is smart enough not to go down that road again.

[SackAttack]

Oh, I fully expect that he won't do it a second time.

Doesn't stop me hoping I can pop some corn.

[Chief Rum]

It's funny, because I hated the whole idiocy of the Decision. But, yes, I totally want him to do it again, because at this point, I think he would just be trolling the world. And I'll always get behind that move.

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

What happens when Wade and Bosh don't opt out and they're still on the books for $40M to the pair of them? The Heat could be really freaking terrible next season.

I wouldn't be shocked to see Bosh opt out also. Wade is the one they need to worry about. It's not like they all were cheap last year. Bosh and James were 19 against the cap last year and Wade was 18.5. They will be at 48.8 if Bosh doesn't opt out and 28.3 if he does opt out. Plenty of room to put some pieces together. They are "slotted" to have a shot at Cleanthony Early or Jordan Adams which is much better then I bet they thought they would get in this draft.

They can also acquire picks if some of the players opt out end up in a sign and trade deal like when James came to Miami.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs3

Wade would be foolish to opt out, I would think - would Riley even bring him back?

He opts out if and only if another contract is in front of him.

Wade is all beat to hell and shit but if he can regain his fitness a Wade/Bosh team would make the playoffs in the east. Wade goes to Germany in the off season and comes back for another good season.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Here's a great article from Zach Lowe about the Love-Thompson trade. He comes off as solidly in favor of the Warriors giving up Klay for Love.

[ColtCrazy]

So if LeBron goes back to Cleveland does all that hate against him just go away? I mean Irving-James-Wiggins/Parker isn't a bad tandem in the East.

[nol]

Originally Posted by stevew

He opts out if and only if another contract is in front of him.

Wade is all beat to hell and shit but if he can regain his fitness a Wade/Bosh team would make the playoffs in the east. Wade goes to Germany in the off season and comes back for another good season.

That would honestly depend on how many teams in the East are trying to tank. Even if you replaced James' salary with 2-3 other free agents, .500 would be a stretch unless Wade was somehow restored to his effectiveness of a couple years ago while also being able to play in 70+ games rather than 50.

But yeah, the opting out doesn't really signify anything other than a motion to get the ball rolling for the other Heat guys to discuss their contracts.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

Here's a great article from Zach Lowe about the Love-Thompson trade. He comes off as solidly in favor of the Warriors giving up Klay for Love.

I love reading Zach Lowe. I went back and saw another article he had linked to in that one about role players, too

SI

[Scarecrow]

Miami has a new 'Big 3': THE OFFICIAL SITE OF THE MIAMI HEAT

[nol]

Originally Posted by Scarecrow

Miami has a new 'Big 3': THE OFFICIAL SITE OF THE MIAMI HEAT

Haha this is always a bad time of year for NBA team sites since it's technically tampering to show a player who isn't under contract. Pretty sure the Timberwolves' one currently features a gallery of best Flip Saunders memories.

[stevew]

I don't think LeBron alone to Cleveland will happen. Perhaps LeBron and Melo together might happen but it's a pipe dream to think LeBron is just dying to play with (only) Kyrie Irving. I just want the whole thing to be over.

[nol]

Originally Posted by stevew

Perhaps LeBron and Memo together might happen but it's a pipe dream to think LeBron is just dying to play with (only) Kyrie Irving.

It would be quite a sight to see Mehmet Okur coming out of retirement to run the pick-and-roll with LeBron

[stevew]

Spell check should have all these names in the dictionary

[korme]

Recommend listening to the Chad Ford/Simmons BS Report pod if you need any reason to get more excited for Thursday.

[murrayyyyy]

76ers say they have pulled back on the logo but it was still in the package released by SLD the other day so who knows(I never got email saying it was dead). Here is the Ben Franklin logo.

Twitter / JasonChadWolf: #Sixers source: Team will NOT ...

[RainMaker]

That logo is amazing.

[murrayyyyy]

Who wins this rumored deal?

Cavs have some interest in the Magic's offer of Afflalo, No. 4 & No. 12 pick for No. 1

Am I crazy for thinking it would be the Cavs? I know Aaron makes 7.5 next year with player option after but is that enough to make you dump the #1 pick?

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

That logo is amazing.

The reactions is people either love it or hate it. I'm one of the few I know who loved it.

Sounds like they will still use for tees/hats which is what I knew it was being used for.

[murrayyyyy]

New Rockets secondary logo (eh)

http://i.imgur.com/w8jiRH2.png

New Warriors logos... (The SF confuses me since they play in Oakland)

http://i.imgur.com/1EHrJMH.jpg

Still can't find a published Kings or Celtics logo yet.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

New Rockets secondary logo (eh)

http://i.imgur.com/w8jiRH2.png

cool... the human resources department gets a shout out

[stevew]

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

Who wins this rumored deal?

Cavs have some interest in the Magic's offer of Afflalo, No. 4 & No. 12 pick for No. 1

Am I crazy for thinking it would be the Cavs? I know Aaron makes 7.5 next year with player option after but is that enough to make you dump the #1 pick?

Absolutely. I need to dump Jared Jack and (maybe) Varejao in that deal though.

[nol]

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

Who wins this rumored deal?

Cavs have some interest in the Magic's offer of Afflalo, No. 4 & No. 12 pick for No. 1

Am I crazy for thinking it would be the Cavs? I know Aaron makes 7.5 next year with player option after but is that enough to make you dump the #1 pick?

If the Cavs were a normal team that isn't hell-bent on making the playoffs or chasing LeBron or whatever, that'd be a pretty good deal for them. I'm pretty high on Wiggins though, so it still wouldn't be crazy for them to turn it down and just draft him. I think for how much people talk about if he's "NBA ready" or not, he could at the bare minimum come in and average double figures without having any plays called for him and contribute some much-needed defense and rebounding from the wing.

Hell, if Dante Exum were available at 4 and I could trade Kyrie for something big, I'd love that deal. Then again, I'm not bound to the same timescale and owner pressures that GMs are.

edit: this is also why I've been saying from the start that Minnesota should have pushed Love onto Cleveland for a package including the first overall pick as soon as possible so they could be the team fielding these offers. There's no Knicks trade for Carmelo out there, so the Wolves aren't going to be playoff contenders once they trade him, and what better way to rebuild than to get the first pick in the draft without having to spend a season tanking for it?

[Vince, Pt. II]

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

New Rockets secondary logo (eh)

http://i.imgur.com/w8jiRH2.png

New Warriors logos... (The SF confuses me since they play in Oakland)

http://i.imgur.com/1EHrJMH.jpg

Still can't find a published Kings or Celtics logo yet.

Warriors ownership has been pushing hard to get an arena built in SF. Getting a lot of local resistance, but they're throwing money around, so who knows.

[nol]

Originally Posted by korme

Recommend listening to the Chad Ford/Simmons BS Report pod if you need any reason to get more excited for Thursday.

I thought this was gonna be pretty dumb but it was actually good. At the very least it's a good reminder to those who participated in the "This draft is the best ever no wait it sucks" hype/backlash cycle that somebody like Julius Randle as a high schooler could have very well been drafted above Anthony Bennett last year.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by nol

I thought this was gonna be pretty dumb but it was actually good. At the very least it's a good reminder to those who participated in the "This draft is the best ever no wait it sucks" hype/backlash cycle that somebody like Julius Randle as a high schooler could have very well been drafted above Anthony Bennett last year.

I'm sure Skip Bayless and Stephen A. Smith have learned their lesson

OOC - Where would Jahlil Okafor go in this draft?

[nol]

Top three unless he had a bad physical that showed he's likely to be injury-prone. He's considered a even bigger get for Duke than Parker was, and he could very well go no. 1 next year. It'd probably be hard to take him first in this draft since he hasn't played college competition, but it'd be a possibility depending on how workouts and stuff went. Milwaukee and Philadelphia aren't in any big hurry to get any better, so they wouldn't be discouraged from drafting a younger player.

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by nol

I thought this was gonna be pretty dumb but it was actually good. At the very least it's a good reminder to those who participated in the "This draft is the best ever no wait it sucks" hype/backlash cycle that somebody like Julius Randle as a high schooler could have very well been drafted above Anthony Bennett last year.

It was fine until they went off on a Kevin Love to Boston tangent.

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

OOC - Where would Jahlil Okafor go in this draft?

In this draft class? Based off order I don't know if he would go before 9 (someone would probably trade up for him in teh Celtics 6 spot) but I'm not sure that he is better than Randle or Gordon(I'm higher on Gordon than most people are).

Vonleh is the one I can't figure out in this draft. Turns it over too much for my liking.

[Chief Rum]

I'll admit, I am bullish on this draft. I think there could be as many as 10 All Stars in this one. I never bit on the backlash on this draft after the pendulum swung back from the early hype.

But I still don't like Embiid. I don't think he will end up an All Star.

[nol]

A trade between the Knicks and Mavericks is close to happening. Mavs get Tyson Chandler and Raymond Felton and the Knicks will get Samuel Dalembert, Jose Calderon, and Shane Larkin.

[bhlloy]

That would have been an exciting trade 3 years ago. Looks like spare parts now

[vex]

Heat want Perkins

Site is dead from traffic right now, but...WOW.

[murrayyyyy]

Brousarrd needs to get off his trade machine on ESPN. (Does anyone like this guy?)

Reporting Harden for Anthony in sign and trade and then James for Lin and Asik making Anthony- James-Howard trio in Houston.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

Brousarrd needs to get off his trade machine on ESPN. (Does anyone like this guy?)

Reporting Harden for Anthony in sign and trade and then James for Lin and Asik making Anthony- James-Howard trio in Houston.

Miami will not S&T Lebron.