Werewolf L Kate Beckinsale - day 7, deadline Thursday 10pm Eastern Time

[Lorena]

So we have:

"official" No Lynch (6) - Antmeister, DaddyTorgo, Gonzo, Jonathan Ezarik, path12, telle

Jonathan Ezarik (3) - cartman, Dodgerchick, Lathum

tanglewood (2) - Kwhit, LSG

Antmeister (1) - JHandley

path12 (1) - Schmidty

no votes (same as "no lynches") (6) - AlanT, Barkeep, Chief Rum, Neon Chaos, RendeR

I've been away for several games and I'm actually a bit shocked on how this "no-lynch" scenario is playing out... I thought lynches were good? I agree with Jhandley and Lathum, we have to start lynching someone and Day 1 is as good as any IMO... at least it's a shot. A shot in the dark, but it's a shot.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Gonzo

I can't speak for what he did earlier during the day, but we've just come back from watching The Simpsons Movie after eating out. I'd rate the film a 7.5, by the way.

Incidentally, I'm voting No Lynch. I'm pretty sure that a wolf has never been lynched on day one, and at any rate, how much information does a lynched villager (or scanner, god forbid) with no voting records tell us?

Vote No Lynch

Technically a wolf has been lynched on day1 a few times

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Technically a wolf has been lynched on day1 a few times

Oh yeah, like saldana getting lynched for not being around when his wife was in labor?

[path12]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

Oh yeah, like saldana getting lynched for not being around when his wife was in labor?

Yeah, that was poor timing on her part.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Jonathan Ezarik

Someone please explain to me how lynching a villager is good for the rest of the villagers?

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I think there's math to it here and I try to play rationally.

Response to these 2 arguments:

So why should we ever lynch anybody unless we're 100% sure the person is a wolf?

Should we just wait around 3-4 days until the seer gets lucky? And not only gets lucky, but actually reveals himself and comes out saying "So-and-so is a wolf. Vote for him."

Because otherwise, your arguments should be the same every single day, because we're ALWAYS more likely to lynch a villager than a wolf, until of course, we get to a 1 to 1 ratio at which point we LOSE.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Per the rules, that's not exactly a valid vote.

VOTE NO LYNCH






































I THINK I AM ONLY GOING TO TALK IN CAPS NOW

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by KWhit

Response to these 2 arguments:

So why should we ever lynch anybody unless we're 100% sure the person is a wolf?

Should we just wait around 3-4 days until the seer gets lucky? And not only gets lucky, but actually reveals himself and comes out saying "So-and-so is a wolf. Vote for him."

Because otherwise, your arguments should be the same every single day, because we're ALWAYS more likely to lynch a villager than a wolf, until of course, we get to a 1 to 1 ratio at which point we LOSE.

I've actually not argued this, though I think JE has.

My argument is that there is a substantial likelihood of gaining useful information to us tonight, more than a lynch would tell us. Further, our lynch has a high probability of lynching someone with one of the three useful roles to us before any information had been gathered. I would prefer to think of today as Day 0, give our seers a chance to do their business, and then begin, armed with some info, by reckoning we should have 3 pieces of information tomorrow known (but kept quiet), to lynch people. In this particular game, with 3 people who have some seer abilities, I think we need a different approach for Day 1 and only Day 1.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

I'm not advocating that we should never lynch anyone unless we are 100% certain they're a wolf, because honestly, unless I'm a seer, I'm never 100% sold on anyone. I'm saying we avoid a lynch when we have absolutely no information at all. Tomorrow, some of us will have something to go on, which even though it's not a lot, is better than what we're working with now.

[Gonzo]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Technically a wolf has been lynched on day1 a few times

What chance do we have of that happening this time around? Far more likely we'll lynch a good guy.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Gonzo

What chance do we have of that happening this time around? Far more likely we'll lynch a good guy.

I am not sure if Im voting no lynch yet or not, but the point that usually is used to counter this is the realization that the odds will always be more likely to lynch a villager than a wolf, because once wolves get down to 1:1 with the villagers they win

That said, like I mentioned earlier, the last few games I've come around a bit more on this thinking, especially after seeing what happened with Pass in my game I ran.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Originally Posted by Gonzo

What chance do we have of that happening this time around? Far more likely we'll lynch a good guy.

Especially when we don't know how many baddies are out there. For all we know, the only bad guy in play right now could be the Mad Scientist.

[Lorena]

Well, it seems lynch is less than 2 hours away and there are essentially 12 No-Lynch votes with Jonathan Ezarik being next with 3 votes.

It's pretty much a done deal... we're heading the No-Lynch route

[KWhit]

Oh well... It doesn't look like we're going to have a lynch tonight anyway, since a ton of people haven't voted yet.

And tonight the no-lynch vote is a perfect place for a ww to hide his vote.

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by KWhit

Oh well... It doesn't look like we're going to have a lynch tonight anyway, since a ton of people haven't voted yet.

And tonight the no-lynch vote is a perfect place for a ww to hide his vote.

lol

get outta my head

[JHandley]

I'm off until after the deadline. I'm leaving my vote on Antmeister due to lack of input from him. Regardless, no lynch is going to win in a landslide.

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by JHandley

I'm off until after the deadline. I'm leaving my vote on Antmeister due to lack of input from him. Regardless, no lynch is going to win in a landslide.

Totally.

So are we gonna head the no-lynch route tomorrow as well because we don't know who is and who isn't a wolf?

*sigh*

[Lorena]

OUT

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

Totally.

So are we gonna head the no-lynch route tomorrow as well because we don't know who is and who isn't a wolf?

*sigh*

Am I speaking in a vacuum here? I'm all for lynching someone tomorrow. I repeat: I'm all for lynching someone tomorrow. When we have some information. Killing someone just because gives a free kill to the wolves. Especially in a game like this where the only ones with information now is the wolves and there is no penalty for not lynching, I see absolutely nothing that could be gained by us killing a villager on day one.

[Barkeep49]

It's funny how well I understand the frustrations of DC and KWhit having been there in Alan's game.

[bulletsponge]

WTF!!!

if i had any idea there was a Kate Beckinsale WW game going i would have joined!

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by bulletsponge

WTF!!!

if i had any idea there was a Kate Beckinsale WW game going i would have joined!

Kate is one of my favorites.

[Chief Rum]

All right, finally caught up. It seems unlikely those favoring a lynch can turn the tide. But I'll give it a shot, because I think we have enough seer types and potential other roles (if we assume st. cronin's last comment in the rules wasn't just window dressing) to make a lynch more valuable than not. In the previous game where this discussion came up, I was a strong advocate for the no lynch because it seemed likely to be difficult to get the information we needed for spells and potions quickly. Ergo, a lynch on Day One means we have one less day to figure things out. I don't foresee that being an issue in this game, where standard info gathering roles seem to be more in place.

I am going to vote for the lynch leader, although it's no reflection on JE, whom I have no evidence against whatsoever. I just figured if there's a chance to get a lynch, I might as well pile on the highest votegetter.

VOTE JONATHON EZARIK

[RendeR]

No lynch is a bad decision, lynch someone, anyone.

Vote Jonathan Ezarik

[st.cronin]

Updated

7 - NO LYNCH - path12 (111), Telle (115), Jonathan Ezarik (133), Barkee49 (166), Antmeister (194), DaddyTorgo (198), Gonzo (200)
5 - Jonathan Ezarik - Dodgerchick (63), Lathum (79), cartman (96), Chief Rum, (222), RendeR (223)
2 - tanglewood - LoneStarGirl (146), KWhit (171)
1 - path12 - Schmidty (128)
1 - Antmeister - JHandley (184)

Not voted - Alan T, Neon Chaos, tanglewood

[tanglewood]

Originally Posted by Jonathan Ezarik

Am I speaking in a vacuum here? I'm all for lynching someone tomorrow. I repeat: I'm all for lynching someone tomorrow. When we have some information. Killing someone just because gives a free kill to the wolves. Especially in a game like this where the only ones with information now is the wolves and there is no penalty for not lynching, I see absolutely nothing that could be gained by us killing a villager on day one.

The only problem is this, how will said dissemination of informatino proceed? Yes we will have one player who will know whether another is a good guy or a wolf (but the could turn up not wolf and still be the mad scientist and therefore bad) and one player who would know whether another is the scientist or not (but again they could still be a bad wolf) and another who could know a wolf, but would comprimise himself if he did. The only scenario here where it makes sense is if Van Helsing is remarkably lucky/unlucky and views a wolf thus is forced to reveal tomorrow for a one for one trade. Great for the village but very unlikely.

In the other scenarios we get a situation where two of our number have very limited informatino indeed. Yes it is more information, but it is really minimal. Also it is difficult for those who have the information to tell the others. Even if we do wait today and lynch tomorrow, chances are we will have two fairly random candidates put up as if it was on day 1 anyway and the only way that either of them will be shifted off is on the 1/9 chance that the good scientist viewed one of the main candidates, one in 18 if it is a runaway vote. If the good scientist does find a wolf tonight then he will have to push very hard in order to get him lynched tommorow as noone else would sure have any chance of having such a high level of suspicion, and essentially paint a large target on his back for the wolves. A one for one trade for our main seer with one wolf is not good on day 2 imho, especially if he can remain hidden and reveal later with more views completed.

However if we proceed and lynch today, then have a kill at night automatically we know the alignments of two players in the game. Thus we can go back and see who they voted for, what they posted on day 1 with complete information about their role. This is very valuable. You can see who they argued with and against, who posted before and after them (wolves often post at around the same times as each other as they often formulate a plan then put it into action quickly. See the last game which I GMed, Barkeep and path12 both regulary posted within 5 minutes of each other), their opinon on other players and plenty. Also, on future days when we have the identity of players it helps looking back at voting records. For example on day 5 we may find a player who has voted soley for villagers to date in the game, if we no lynched today however we essentially allow the wolves to hide their votes amongst the crowds. We have absolutely zero differentiation between wolves and humans here because it is obvious that we will get a no lynch with the numbers as it is so soon to deadline, so it is a throwaway vote, the wolves can vote for whoever and it doesn't matter.

Simply put, the pressure of a villager being killed at the end of the day forces people to act seriously, reason clearly and consider their vote. Even on day 1 you need a logical reason to vote for someone, particulary as you can change your vote as the day progresses. This pressure creates analysable situations, because without that pressure it is worthless, there is no incentive for anyone to take today's vote seriously.

So yes the statistics are hugely in favour that we would lynch a good guy, and possibly equally likely that we lynch a good role guy as a wolf or mad scientist, but we still 100% should lynch. A genuine lynch vote creates pockets of disscussion, agrument and disagreement that provides material to analyse and therefore is essential to winning the game. Part of the reason this post may come of as so agitatory is to try and see who agrees and disagrees, because at the moment day 1 has been a waste of time for the village. Currently all we will have tommorow is one dead villager whose vote and post record is useless because of a wasted day 1 and two players who will have minimal information that if it was valuable (i.e. a good guy was about to be lynched or a bad giy was found) would not necessarily be worth revealing in any case.

[Barkeep49]

Well we actually are with-in striking distance of a lynch with a no lynch defection, or two, plus some of yet to votes coming in and voting.

[tanglewood]

Vote Jonathan Ezarik

Because he wsa the vote leader before the no lynch strategem took sway and he is the only realistic hope of a lynch target at this late proceeding.

[Barkeep49]

Tangle: Except the two people who are dead will likely both be humans. The info we learn about them is minimal. While I don't propose that the seers reveal their information, the information will be in the game and some people will be able to make a more informed decision tomorrow than they can today. Plus if we DO go down the wrong path they have information to reveal to us before they are lynched.

[RendeR]

There is an element of chance in ANY game of logic and deduction, however a no-lynch vote gives us ZERO chance of ANYTHING, while a Lynch gives the only opportunity for good or bad to happen.

We must Lynch, period.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Originally Posted by tanglewood

However if we proceed and lynch today, then have a kill at night automatically we know the alignments of two players in the game. Thus we can go back and see who they voted for, what they posted on day 1 with complete information about their role. This is very valuable.

What kind of information will you get from me being lynched? I'm a plain villager. I have no role. What does it matter if I vote for someone? It'd be a complete guess and would mean absolutely nothing.

Seriously, what will you learn from my death?

[tanglewood]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Tangle: Except the two people who are dead will likely both be humans. The info we learn about them is minimal. While I don't propose that the seers reveal their information, the information will be in the game and some people will be able to make a more informed decision tomorrow than they can today. Plus if we DO go down the wrong path they have information to reveal to us before they are lynched.

No, there will be more information in the game that is useful to the village for tommorows lynch if we lynch someone today.

Pretty simply, if JE is lynched today and we assume he is a human (likely of course), we have learned:

1) Who JE voted for was a genuine attempt at helping the village
2) Everything JE posted was genuinly trying to help the village
3) We can see all those who voted to kill a villager
4) We can see all those who propogated no lynch, thus indirectly tried to prevent a villager being killed
5) We can study the groups formed and the logic used in the arguments over whether to lynch or not

This creates information that we simply would not have otherwise. This information would be avaliable to all players for tomorrow's lynch. If we don't lynch this info is not avaliable tomorrow. So there will be less information to decide on for the day 2 lynch.

Even assuming that say we started with only 18 players but two views already taken place, as the no lynch proponets want to, you have less info avaliable to the majority of the village to make an informed decision in that scenario. Only two players have any information at all, everyone else is at zero. If we lynch, then everyone has some information on which to make an informed vote tomorrow and two players still have what they would have had if there was no lynch too, plus the lynch info.

And tommorow, if the seer scans someone and they come back human (likely) and they take then take the lead in the lynch vote (unlikely but possible) then it is still not a smart play to reveal or strongly hint in order to save them, the seer is too valuable to risk being outed on day 2 over one player, so thta information is not as immediately useful as you seem to make out.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Originally Posted by tanglewood

Even on day 1 you need a logical reason to vote for someone, particulary as you can change your vote as the day progresses.

Originally Posted by tanglewood

Vote Jonathan Ezarik

Because he wsa the vote leader before the no lynch strategem took sway and he is the only realistic hope of a lynch target at this late proceeding.

So your logical reason for voting for me is that I'm the leading target to be lynched? That's logic? And what is your excuse going to be when I turn up good? That we had to lynch someone? That we just couldn't go one day without lynching someone?

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Jonathan Ezarik

So your logical reason for voting for me is that I'm the leading target to be lynched? That's logic? And what is your excuse going to be when I turn up good? That we had to lynch someone? That we just couldn't go one day without lynching someone?

Yes.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Yes.

Well, I hope your logic serves you better on down the road. Seriously, you all are doing exactly what the wolves want. Kill off one of the good guys so they don't have to. Congrats.

[Alan T]

So its:

7 - NO LYNCH - path12 (111), Telle (115), Jonathan Ezarik (133), Barkee49 (166), Antmeister (194), DaddyTorgo (198), Gonzo (200)
6 - Jonathan Ezarik - Dodgerchick (63), Lathum (79), cartman (96), Chief Rum, (222), RendeR (223), tanglewood
2 - tanglewood - LoneStarGirl (146), KWhit (171)
1 - path12 - Schmidty (128)
1 - Antmeister - JHandley (184)

Not voted - Alan T, Neon Chaos




Hmmm

[st.cronin]

less than 20 minutes to deadline

[Alan T]

Well, even if I did vote for JE, it would still be a tie which is no lynch, unless someone else moved to him too.

[tanglewood]

Originally Posted by Jonathan Ezarik

So your logical reason for voting for me is that I'm the leading target to be lynched? That's logic? And what is your excuse going to be when I turn up good? That we had to lynch someone? That we just couldn't go one day without lynching someone?

That you were the leading the votes with 3 at one point then a groundswell of no lynch votes came to save you is a perfectly valid reason to vote for you, much stronger than the reasoning used to catch many wolves in previous games.

The vote went from 3-1-1 to 7-3-2-1-1 that is a huge swing, especially considering it has been pretty much accepted in previous WW games that a lynch is a good thing for the village at all times. IN previous games where the rules has allowed the engineering of no lynch situations it has always been shot down by veteran players, which is why I am suprised at Barkeep who I specifically remember in a previous game arguing against a no lynch on day 1 I believe (I will check if it is important enough).

7 vote swings rarely occur on day 1 without some wolf involvement, put it that way. I am not saying that means you are a wolf trying to be saved, merely that the wolves probably don't want a lynch. I think that doing what the wolves don't want is generally a sound strategy.

But of course, because it is so obvious that no lynch will take place, wolves can hide their votes away anywhere as there is no pressure on the situation as stated earlier. In either case the suggestion and the large support received of the no lynch idea has in my opinion harmed the village. Is it a massive deal, no because it is only day 1, but still we should lynch because it helps us.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by RendeR

No lynch is a bad decision, lynch someone, anyone.

Vote Jonathan Ezarik

Darnit Render you followed close on my vote against LSG in the last game, too. Whuddupwidat?

Actually, looking at the time stamp, I am guessing it was just an odd coincidence. Or at least I hope.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Darnit Render you followed close on my vote against LSG in the last game, too. Whuddupwidat?

Actually, looking at the time stamp, I am guessing it was just an odd coincidence. Or at least I hope.

Maybe he has a WWcrush!

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Originally Posted by tanglewood

I am not saying that means you are a wolf trying to be saved, merely that the wolves probably don't want a lynch. I think that doing what the wolves don't want is generally a sound strategy.

Why the hell would the wolves want to save me? A free kill is exactly what they want.

[path12]

If I was a wolf, JE would be one of the players I'd be most afraid of. There's no way I'm ever gonna vote him day 1.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Originally Posted by path12

If I was a wolf, JE would be one of the players I'd be most afraid of. There's no way I'm ever gonna vote him day 1.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Maybe he has a WWcrush!

Finally, a legitamite reason to go UTR. And deep.

[tanglewood]

Originally Posted by Jonathan Ezarik

Why the hell would the wolves want to save me? A free kill is exactly what they want.

When there is no kill at the deadline, one villager is killed by the wolves and our seer has his one view which he can't tell anyone about, everyone will stand around and say "well now what?". We will be back to square 1 with one less villager to contribute to the discussion.

It is pretty simple really. Lynch people and you find out what they were. This allows you to objectively evaluate what they said and then you evaluate who supported them and who attacked them. This helps the village.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Jonathan Ezarik

Well, I hope your logic serves you better on down the road. Seriously, you all are doing exactly what the wolves want. Kill off one of the good guys so they don't have to. Congrats.

JE, I actually don't want you to be the lynch target. I would switch if we had another legit lynch target, as I think you would help us a lot in this game. But I am in the position of possibly choosing between lynching you or no lynch at all. And as you yourself have argued, we need a lynch, at least in this game.

[path12]

Wolves are not gonna make themselves known in the vote day 1.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

JE, I actually don't want you to be the lynch target. I would switch if we had another legit lynch target, as I think you would help us a lot in this game. But I am in the position of possibly choosing between lynching you or no lynch at all. And as you yourself have argued, we need a lynch, at least in this game.

What? When have I argued that we need a day one lynch?

[path12]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

JE, I actually don't want you to be the lynch target. I would switch if we had another legit lynch target, as I think you would help us a lot in this game. .

But since we don't, I think we'd be foolish to lynch him.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Originally Posted by path12

Wolves are not gonna make themselves known in the vote day 1.

Thank you. If I'm lynched (which I fully believe will happen now), you all will learn absolutely nothing. The wolves just sit back and let you all pick off one of your own.