Werewolf CXXIV - Watchmen (Game Over, Wolves Win!, endpost:704)

[Lathum]

Make sure Jeffs double post is only counted as one vote

[jeff061]

Yeah I agree. I'll edit it out if that's kosher.

I just thought the first one was tough to make out the bold.

[Chief Rum]

Better not edit. The Jackal will figure it out.

[The Jackal]

NO EDITING! (LIGHTNING BOLTS) (MAGIC MISSILES)

(yes I figured it out, thanks, and that color was gross, Lathum)

[The Jackal]

ntn - 2 - (DV 194, CR 197)
saldana - 2 - (EF 195, jeff 199)
EF - 1- (Lathum 191)
CR - 1 - (PF 193)

[Lathum]

I find it interesting EF claims he is curious about me and Danny, yet votes Saldana

[Chief Rum]

Well, I was hoping to see more discussion before I had to leave for the second job (where I have no computer access). I may be able to check in briefly on my phone, but I wouldn't count on it. I guess I will stick with my ntn vote; lots of votes left to be made.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I find it interesting EF claims he is curious about me and Danny, yet votes Saldana

i find it interesting that EF says "there is at least one wolf on me" and i havent voted yet.

I really didnt plan on voting you again today EF, but if you are going to come after me when i am actually looking for somewhere else to go, i dont really have much of a choice...to me it just looks like you are trying to stir crap up

vote EF

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by saldana

i find it interesting that EF says "there is at least one wolf on me" and i havent voted yet.

I really didnt plan on voting you again today EF, but if you are going to come after me when i am actually looking for somewhere else to go, i dont really have much of a choice...to me it just looks like you are trying to stir crap up

vote EF

Talking about the day one votes.

Correct, I am trying to stir things up. I even said that when I posted. The best way to get the wolves off guard is to keep them guessing a little. It is also the best way to get some voting history.

[ntndeacon]

Well phooey! The day I can't even look at the web until now is the day iam among the leaders in vote getters. Well I am only going to be on for a small amount of time until after the lynch.

[EagleFan]

With 14 players it's probably in the 11-3 starting range. That means that we are 9-3 now.

Voting me out makes it 7-3 after the night kill (barring a block) which gives us (the village as a whole) two misses to play with.

Just some numbers to think about.

It was villager/villager yesterday with Autumn and myself. This means that either Danny and hoops are questionable (as they were in the early running until thing swung heavily torwards myself and Autumn) or we need to look at the voters who were hiding within the run. They most likley wouldn't want their votes to stand out in the swing and would not try to make a stir with their vote (as they would know that they were lynching a villager either way).

That gives hoops some positive in my opinion as he seemed vocal enough when making his switch over to me (though there is still the cunning trying to get scanned theory to consider).

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by saldana

I really didnt plan on voting you again today EF, but if you are going to come after me when i am actually looking for somewhere else to go, i dont really have much of a choice...

Interesting. He is tied with ntn at the top but claims that he has no other choice but to vote for me? If it was a true self defense vote why not vote ntn to put him in the lead ahead of you?

[EagleFan]

dola: that last post is not meant to implicate ntn, just thinking out loud. I have no read on ntn at this point.

[ntndeacon]

Ok It seems very likely that the wolves split their votes up. I am falsely assuming that one in each camp the EF voters and the Autumn ones. (I have no idea where the third could be, so am ignoring it for the moment). So I am gonna vote for one of the folks that voted for EF.

Still Danny and hoops seem to be on the side of light and right. So that leaves either saldana and Lathum. Voting for saldana seems to be like not voting. as I assume that at least at some point a defensive vote back will happen leaving us again tied. So I will go in a new direction. Basically because he is the only other possibility of the EF voters.

Vote Lathum

[Lathum]

leaving work in a few and may not get back on until after deadline, wife is away on business so I am on kid duty.

I really have no defense against NTNs vote, except that I find him introducing a new candidte interesting.

[Danny]

Home from work and catching up. I'm very tired, but will try and post my thoughts while grabbing some food.

[The Jackal]

EF - 2- (Lathum 191, saldana 208)
ntn - 2 - (DV 194, CR 197)
saldana - 2 - (EF 195, jeff 199)
CR - 1 - (PF 193)
Lathum - 1- (ntn 214)

[Danny]

Looking at day 1

Autumn - 6 - (PF 82, CR 95, ntn 100, DV 111, DT 154, EF 157)
EF - 4- (hoops 92, saldana 97, Lathum 104, Danny 112)
Danny - 2 - (Autumn 117, Thomkal 123)
hoopsguy - 1 - (jeff 89)

Not much color so far, but what stands out and has been talked about a bit is the probability that wolves would split their vote. It's interesting to me that the wolves went for a voter of a non main candidate, basically leaving Jeff as the only stray voter alive. This leads me to think there is a good chance Jeff is a villager and that all 3 wolves had their votes on main candidates.

[Danny]

I usually like to consider second voters / those who help set candidates on early days as there is almost always a wolf in there. That said, there was a lot of vote switching, so these results I just posted are probably not valid for that and I'll have to look back.

[Danny]

Looking at the three main candidates before I go back and review. I have mixed thoughts on EagleFan. He is definitely playing out there, but I have seen that from him as a villager and as a wolf.

Ntn is very tough for me to read. I never have a gut on him one way or the other. He did have an early vote yesterday.

Saldana had a fairly early vote from what I remember. I also remember a post he made about specifically not wanting to be the 2nd vote on someone. With how hard I pushed that last game, I could see a wolf being cautious about that. But what he post that publicly as opposed to just avoiding it?

I'm not sure where I am going at this point, but I don't feel strongly against any of the three with two votes.

[jeff061]

It's interesting to me that the wolves went for a voter of a non main candidate

I picked up on this as well, was tucking it away for now.

[jeff061]

Combined with the fact that the only other voter for Danny was dead. 2 people voted for Danny day 1. Both are dead for day 2. Would find it hard to believe the wolves would shine a spotlight like that. But it could be a ploy.

[Danny]

I'm having a tough time deciding between the three candidates and I have a strong read for any of the three, but since EF's pool of voters is smaller and I am one of those four, I think going there gives the best % chance of hitting a wolf.

So Vote Saldana

[Danny]

I'll be away for a bit, but will be back on before deadline.

[J23]

Catching up on the thread to throw down a vote. I won't miss this one!

[Lathum]

popping in real quick, have to ask myself why NTN hasn't changed his vote when he is on the block.

[J23]

As I posted earlier today, I'm thinking it was 2 villagers up for vote yesterday, so I'm giving EF a pass tonight leaving saldana and ntn. Hazarding a guess that at least one wolf was on Autumn, I'm going to go with ntn over saldana tonight.

vote ntn

[EagleFan]

Tempted to switch up but switching to the person that I want to will leave me vulnerable big time.

[jeff061]

So we have a tie now, correct?

NTN and Saldana with 3 apiece?

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Lathum

popping in real quick, have to ask myself why NTN hasn't changed his vote when he is on the block.

I find it interesting that both saldana and ntn had a chance to vote the other and neither did.

[hoopsguy]

On for a minute now, but won't be back before deadline. Sorry for being almost completely MIA today and I'll try very hard to rectify that tomorrow if I'm around long enough to do so.

NTN and Saldana tie - I'll go ahead and put a vote on one of them rather than duck it and leave it for others to decide. I'm going to go with Saldana for the vote because I've got a small good vibe from NTN and nothing from Saldana. But if I was around to push candidates I think I would try to engage some of the people in the thread a little bit more before casting a vote.

I'll try to be back before deadline, but I think it is a less than ten percent chance. Kid would have to go to sleep at a record pace, more or less.

[hoopsguy]

Oops, add the vote.

VOTE SALDANA

[Lathum]

vote count?

May try and move off EF if need be

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

I find it interesting that both saldana and ntn had a chance to vote the other and neither did.

I was going to vote for you until you pointed this out.

VOTE SALDANA

[The Jackal]

saldana - 5 - (EF 195, jeff 199, Danny 223, hoops 232, DT 234)
ntn - 3 - (DV 194, CR 197, J23 227)
EF - 2- (Lathum 191, saldana 208)
CR - 1 - (PF 193)
Lathum - 1- (ntn 214)

[PackerFanatic]

No point in having a throw-away vote, might as well try and find a wolf...can we get a current count?

UNVOTE CHIEF RUM

[PackerFanatic]

Good timing, Jackal

[PackerFanatic]

Hmm...the seemingly sudden sal run worries me. I want to tighten it up a bit.

VOTE NTNDEACON

[Lathum]

unvote EF
Vote Saldana

[The Jackal]

saldana - 6 - (EF 195, jeff 199, Danny 223, hoops 232, DT 234, Lathum 239)
ntn - 4 - (DV 194, CR 197, J23 227, PF 238)
EF - 1- (saldana 208)
Lathum - 1- (ntn 214)

[saldana]

unvote ef
vote ntn

[saldana]

dont really have much to say..love the fact that there is a run on me when i am not here (the only night this week i have my daughters)

[hoopsguy]

Sorry it worked out that way, Saldana. Was definitely not my attention and if you had posted on this earlier in the thread I had missed it.

Have five minutes left to try and assimilate what the movement tonight means in terms of these two candidates. I'm mildly surprised that Lathum swung over to Saldana as (my impression is) he usually gives Saldana the benefit of the doubt for as long as is reasonable.

[Lathum]

Unvote Sal
Vote NTNDeacon

[The Jackal]

DEADLINE

[EagleFan]

WTF? Late switch to a tie?

[The Jackal]

ntn - 6 - (DV 194, CR 197, J23 227, PF 238, saldana 241, Lathum 244)
saldana - 5 - (EF 195, jeff 199, Danny 223, hoops 232, DT 234)
Lathum - 1- (ntn 214)

[PackerFanatic]

Shouldn't we have a tie?

[EagleFan]

oh, nevermind, see sal's switch too.

Interesting...

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

WTF? Late switch to a tie?

no, late switch to lynch NTN and not Sal