Werewolf Small Game XI -- Divination Nation! (GAME OVER WOLVES WIN!! )

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Either that or you knew I planned on scanning you and he planned on scanning me and the only thing you could do was either hope for lucky dice rolls or have this strat as a backup plan which you are using to cause doubt. Like I said before I'm waiting for ntn to return with his results before I cast a vote, but your comments sure are removing much doubt i had about you.

Ntn said he wasn't going to scan me. You're just wrong, since I knew you were planning to scan me the smart play would have been to kill YOU, not the guy that already HAD scanned me.

We'll see what else comes out today. I suppose I might be wrong about you (I was wrong about Lathum), but I doubt it.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Ntn said he wasn't going to scan me. You're just wrong, since I knew you were planning to scan me the smart play would have been to kill YOU, not the guy that already HAD scanned me.

We'll see what else comes out today. I suppose I might be wrong about you (I was wrong about Lathum), but I doubt it.

Well if he is good, I sure hope he scans you. Like I said before its very important to put extra scans on those most likely bad. Right now we have 2 good guys with scans of you that show you are bad. THats pretty damning already for you. We'll see how the rest of the scans turn up.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Well lucky for you , that according to my list you had a chance to scan chief last night but chose not to do so.

Good lord, I said OVER AND OVER AGAIN I WAS PLANNING TO SCAN NTNDEACON. I even asked, "hey do you want me to scan somebody else?" I got zero guidance whatsoever.

[ImTheCrew]

daddy torgo is a student

[DaddyTorgo]

Night 1 Result: I scanned NTNDEACON. He came up a WOLF.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Good lord, I said OVER AND OVER AGAIN I WAS PLANNING TO SCAN NTNDEACON. I even asked, "hey do you want me to scan somebody else?" I got zero guidance whatsoever.

I posted who I thought people should scan. You chose to ignore my comment then. If you ask for people's thoughts just for show then its one thing. If you honestly want people's opinions then you should listen to them when they are given.

[st.cronin]

Well, that certainly puts me in a pickle.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Night 1 Result: I scanned NTNDEACON. He came up a WOLF.

So now we have another conflict in stories. Cronin says ntndeacon is a student, DaddyTorgo says Ntn is a wolf.

Cronin is under suspicion because 2 different good guys scanned him as bad. DT is under suspicion because of Lathum turning up good after both he and hoops scanned him as bad.

So this is a fun little twist.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Alan T

So now we have another conflict in stories. Cronin says ntndeacon is a student, DaddyTorgo says Ntn is a wolf.

Cronin is under suspicion because 2 different good guys scanned him as bad. DT is under suspicion because of Lathum turning up good after both he and hoops scanned him as bad.

So this is a fun little twist.

And to add to this both of the top two wolf candidates coming into today (Imthecrew and cronin) are the only two who have scanned daddytorgo and both say he is a student.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I posted who I thought people should scan. You chose to ignore my comment then. If you ask for people's thoughts just for show then its one thing. If you honestly want people's opinions then you should listen to them when they are given.

Honestly, this post burns me. Several people post several DIFFERENT lists of scan plans. I said over and over who I was going to scan, giving anybody who thought it was a bad idea a chance to say "hey, cronin, why don't you scan so and so." But nobody said anything. So I'm supposed to just know to change my scan?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Honestly, this post burns me. Several people post several DIFFERENT lists of scan plans. I said over and over who I was going to scan, giving anybody who thought it was a bad idea a chance to say "hey, cronin, why don't you scan so and so." But nobody said anything. So I'm supposed to just know to change my scan?

Hey you dont have to listen to my opinion, but to say NOONE commented is a lie. that is my point. Since I obviously stated numerous times my thoughts on things. Either way, I am guessing this whole thing is for show and you don't really have the village's best interests at heart.

[st.cronin]

Assuming I don't get lynched today:

I am planning to scan Alan T tonight.

Plan accordingly.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Assuming I don't get lynched today:

I am planning to scan Alan T tonight.

Plan accordingly.

Just what I want, a wolf to scan me. Cool. Maybe it means I will live till night 3.

[hoopsguy]

Well, the good news is that my scan on RendeR shows him as a student. The bad news is that he is dead so that provides no new value for us.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Alan T

So now we have another conflict in stories. Cronin says ntndeacon is a student, DaddyTorgo says Ntn is a wolf.

Cronin is under suspicion because 2 different good guys scanned him as bad. DT is under suspicion because of Lathum turning up good after both he and hoops scanned him as bad.

So this is a fun little twist.

i'd like to point out that 2 people scanned me as good though.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

i'd like to point out that 2 people scanned me as good though.

You obviously haven't read far enough since I already said that!

[st.cronin]

This is the order of posts:

Originally Posted by Alan T

I would do something like:

Hoopsguy scans Render
Daddytorgo scans ntndeacon
Render scans Alan
Cronin scans Chief
Alan scans Cronin
Chief scans Imthecrew
Imthecrew scans Daddytorgo
Ntndeacon scans Cronin

Next, I posted that I had already sent in a scan order for ntn, and wondered if I should change it. Next comes:

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

i will send in my scan for NTN before I go to bed.

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

I just sent my scan in . it was for ITC. If cronin has a scan in for me then my viewing him seems to me as spite. and as he let on that he wanted to scan me before the votes were cast...I will go to another candidate I believe is a wolf.

So, Alan, you tell me what, as a villager, I'm supposed to do in that situation.

[DaddyTorgo]

oh. of course it's the 2 wolf suspects

what i think we're forgetting here is that the wolves don't know one another (and IIRC from the rules, not going back to look) can't communicate UNTIL they find one another.

so to believe that ITC+Cronin are covering for me and we're all 3 wolves, would mean that we had some serious luck on night zero on finding each other (perfect luck as a matter of fact) and are orchestrating this.

i don't know what to think about itc and cronin and it is weird they've both been the only ones to scan me and they're the 2 wolf candidates. i'm thinking likely 1 is a wolf and the other got a bad die-roll though.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

This is the order of posts:



Next, I posted that I had already sent in a scan order for ntn, and wondered if I should change it. Next comes:





So, Alan, you tell me what, as a villager, I'm supposed to do in that situation.

Just say you chose to go against other people's opinions on who to scan. Not that no one commented on it like you did say.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Just say you chose to go against other people's opinions on who to scan. Not that no one commented on it like you did say.

Except that I had said who I was planning to scan looooooooooooooong before anybody put together a list. So you all chose to ignore MY plan.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

what i think we're forgetting here is that the wolves don't know one another (and IIRC from the rules, not going back to look) can't communicate UNTIL they find one another.

I don't think this is true, I think that was the original ruleset.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Except that I had said who I was planning to scan looooooooooooooong before anybody put together a list. So you all chose to ignore MY plan.

Thats right, I definitly said yesterday that I didn't want you driving the agenda of who to scan whom since you were 1 of the 2 suspects we had at the end of the day.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Thats right, I definitly said yesterday that I didn't want you driving the agenda of who to scan whom since you were 1 of the 2 suspects we had at the end of the day.

Yes, but, you know - you didn't post your plan until AFTER I had sent in my scan. Prior to that, as far as I can tell, everybody was working under the assumption I was going to scan ntndeacon. So you're making this seem like some anti-village move on my part is just incredibly manipulative.

I also just noticed who Render said he was going to scan: Chief Rum, the guy who cleared Alan.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Yes, but, you know - you didn't post your plan until AFTER I had sent in my scan. Prior to that, as far as I can tell, everybody was working under the assumption I was going to scan ntndeacon. So you're making this seem like some anti-village move on my part is just incredibly manipulative.

I also just noticed who Render said he was going to scan: Chief Rum, the guy who cleared Alan.

Im sure you noticed that before you killed him.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Im sure you noticed that before you killed him.

No, I just noticed that now. Surely I would have brought it up right away, as it puts Chief (and therefore you) in a worse light.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

No, I just noticed that now. Surely I would have brought it up right away, as it puts Chief (and therefore you) in a worse light.

I think i am in a pretty good light actually, and will be even better after you are lynched

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I think i am in a pretty good light actually, and will be even better after you are lynched

Bring it on, then. Can't wait to read the posts after I turn up good. I never mind being lynched as a villager, especially when my death points a finger at a wolf (see: Lathum in Anxiety's homo game). Usually when we go at it like this, we end up both good, but there is virtually no doubt in my mind right now that you are a wolf.

[hoopsguy]

Does anyone have a recap of the scans, listed by Day? I will try to put this together at some point, but my access today is pretty sporadic.

[st.cronin]

Day 1:

Originally Posted by Alan T

Lathum says ImTheCrew is a wolf
Hoopsguy says Lathum is a wolf
Daddytorgo says Lathum is a wolf.
Render says St.Cronin is a wolf.

Cronin says DaddyTorgo is a student
Alan T says Hoopsguy is a student.
Chief Rum says Alan T is a student.
Imthecrew says Render is a student.
Ntndeacon says Chief is a student.

Day 2:

AlanT says st.cronin is a wolf
DaddyTorgo says ntndeacon is a wolf
st.cronin says ntndeacon is a student

That's what I've got.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Day 1:

Lathum says ImTheCrew is a wolf
Hoopsguy says Lathum is a wolf
Daddytorgo says Lathum is a wolf.
Render says St.Cronin is a wolf.

Cronin says DaddyTorgo is a student
Alan T says Hoopsguy is a student.
Chief Rum says Alan T is a student.
Imthecrew says Render is a student.
Ntndeacon says Chief is a student

Day 2:

AlanT says st.cronin is a wolf
DaddyTorgo says ntndeacon is a wolf
st.cronin says ntndeacon is a student
hoopsguy says Render is a student
ImTheCrew says DaddyTorgo is a student

edited... still waiting on ntndeacon and Chief Rum for today, I think.

[hoopsguy]

OK, we've got two people that were identified as wolves on day 1 by known students. Obviously this isn't fool-proof, but I think it makes sense to look hard at Cronin and Crew.

I would like to have a better feel on DT (suspect he feels the same way about me if a student) but unless there is new info forthcoming I don't think he is where my vote is going today.

[hoopsguy]

Also, we can't work with the idea that the wolves voted together on this if they don't start off knowing each other. Instead each of them puts an order in, and Path determines who gets killed based on those votes. So if there are wolves that are communicating with each other, they would likely have put votes in together, but the chances of all three wolves working in coordination probably was not high for last night's actions.

This goes against Cronin's argument "it would be pretty stupid for me to kill a person who said I was a wolf". Yes, but if you don't get to make that call then ...

[Chief Rum]

OOG: Wow, for a small game, this is all pretty messed up and head twisty. Cool idea, path.

IG: Okay, lots to go over. I'll get the scan out first. ITC came up as a WOLF.

I believe that is the second time he has done so.

My thinking sorta goes along with AlanT, although I agree with stcronin that Render's death and the plan to scan AlanT seem too coincidental. But then I myself have already scanned AlanT and he came up a student. Since I am a student, I know the odds are strong that I am right. Until someone comes out with AlanT as a wolf froma scan, I have to believe he is a student.

So that means st. cronin is very wolfish to me. Put him along with ITC, and I say we still have two players who are very clearly wolves at this point.

cronin, I also saw your post about Render's scan. I saw that, too, last night, but I was on several lists to be scanned by several people last night. I even said how confusing it all was with the plans out there (I went with the last one, AlanT's). I had no idea who was going to scan me, but when I went to bed last night, I figured it would be you (in Alan's plan), not Render. I don't know why the wolves chose Render, but I highly doubt it has anything to do with me. More likely they were trying to create this exact doubt about AlanT--or more likely, that's what you're trying to do, I should say.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

OOG: Wow, for a small game, this is all pretty messed up and head twisty. Cool idea, path.

Thanks, but I have to confess that like most WW games, it's my adaptation of someone else's idea. Glad you're enjoying it though. I am.

[hoopsguy]

From where I sit, both Cronin and Crew seem like equally appealing candidates. Both have been scanned and called out as a wolf by a confirmed student and a second person.

I think I have a slightly higher level of trust for Alan's scan on Cronin because he scanned me as a student, but certainly would be comfortable backing either of these two today given the information available. Do people see a compelling reason to go with one over the other (outside of the two parties involved, who would definitely prefer not to be lynched)?

[ntndeacon]

just got on. Scanned ITC. He came up wolf.

[DaddyTorgo]

is that 3 for ITC as a wolf now?

or just 2?

cuz if that's 3, regardless of your higher level of trust in alan's scan of cronin hoops, that seems pretty damming

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I didn't maximize any candidates. Going into today we had two candidates. You and Imthecrew. I didn't bring either of you into this, Render and Lathum who both have been found good did. Your comment about me maximizing candidates is completely a distraction tactic so I chose to ignore it. I have just found confirmation to back Render's scan.



Either that or you knew I planned on scanning you and he planned on scanning me and the only thing you could do was either hope for lucky dice rolls or have this strat as a backup plan which you are using to cause doubt. Like I said before I'm waiting for ntn to return with his results before I cast a vote, but your comments sure are removing much doubt i had about you.

I think we had 3 candidates yesterday.until I see scans on DT from folks itrust more I think DT is a wolf too.

[Alan T]

Trying to take a step back at the two, I think right now I am favoring going for Cronin more than Imthecrew right now because of the chain of whom vouched for whom.

Lathum (known good) claimed Imthecrew is a wolf.
Render (known good) claimed St.cronin is a wolf

Those two even out.

Alan says Cronin is a wolf
Chief says Imthecrew is a wolf.

Both players are not definites and even out on their merits alone.

Chief Rum scanned Alan and said Alan is a good guy
Ntndeacon scanned Chief and said he is a good guy.

Cronin and DT both claim opposite things about Ntndeacon putting his scan into doubt.

What it leaves everyone with is:

A) Both Chief and Alan could be good. Win/win
B) Both Chief and Alan could be bad. Lose/Lose
C) Only one of the two could be bad, but which?

So for arguement sake, if Chief is bad, it calls into question his scan of me and the whole stack of cards comes tumbling down. If Chief is good and Im bad, he could have had an unlucky scan but most likely would have turned me in originally.

So I think both seem like good options, just the pedigree behind the chain pointing a finger at cronin seems strongest right now. I think before any of us make a decision, we need to hear the rest of the night's scans first. some are still outstanding.

[Chief Rum]

Well, this is a two job day for me, and I am out the door. I will have to vote now.

The late third vote for ITC as a wolf, and with me also getting him as a wolf, moves him ahead of st. cronin, IMO.

VOTE IMTHECREW

Although I am curious how we got two scans on ITC last night. Was that the plan? Of course, there were several plans, so maybe that's what happened there.

See y'all tonight.

[Alan T]

nevermind my last post, i wrote it up while ntndeacon was here. So, if there are 3 against imthecrew, he is where I would go for today. Who's scans are we still missing, or is that most of them?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Trying to take a step back at the two, I think right now I am favoring going for Cronin more than Imthecrew right now because of the chain of whom vouched for whom.

Lathum (known good) claimed Imthecrew is a wolf.
Render (known good) claimed St.cronin is a wolf

Those two even out.

Alan says Cronin is a wolf
Chief says Imthecrew is a wolf.

Both players are not definites and even out on their merits alone.

Chief Rum scanned Alan and said Alan is a good guy
Ntndeacon scanned Chief and said he is a good guy.

Cronin and DT both claim opposite things about Ntndeacon putting his scan into doubt.

What it leaves everyone with is:

A) Both Chief and Alan could be good. Win/win
B) Both Chief and Alan could be bad. Lose/Lose
C) Only one of the two could be bad, but which?

So for arguement sake, if Chief is bad, it calls into question his scan of me and the whole stack of cards comes tumbling down. If Chief is good and Im bad, he could have had an unlucky scan but most likely would have turned me in originally.

So I think both seem like good options, just the pedigree behind the chain pointing a finger at cronin seems strongest right now. I think before any of us make a decision, we need to hear the rest of the night's scans first. some are still outstanding.

I agree with your logic above. I can't wait, though, so I hope my vote for ITC proves useful. I feel either way we're nabbing a wolf, though. Whoever doesn't die today, I would think would be the strongest candidate tomorrow for sure.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Well if he is good, I sure hope he scans you. Like I said before its very important to put extra scans on those most likely bad. Right now we have 2 good guys with scans of you that show you are bad. THats pretty damning already for you. We'll see how the rest of the scans turn up.

perhaps I should have scanned him. I foresaw both of us calling the other a wolfSo I went to look at someone who had not claimed to be looking at me tonight. HAving said that I do believe that st. cronin is a wolf as well.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I agree with your logic above. I can't wait, though, so I hope my vote for ITC proves useful. I feel either way we're nabbing a wolf, though. Whoever doesn't die today, I would think would be the strongest candidate tomorrow for sure.

Well the only issue that I worry about here is we're basing some of that on Ntndeacon's word which right now isn't looking too trustworthy. It appears that if Cronin and Ntn both are indeed wolves, they would have communication now with each other based on cronin's scan of ntn last night.

So part of me is wondering if ntn is throwing a diversion to keep cronin alive another day. Whether or not imthecrew is a wolf is an interesting decision then as ntn might have scanned someone else and instead just said he scanned ITC to buy cronin time.. or he could have scanned him and have him not turn up as a wolf for him... or this whole conspiracy theory could be unfounded and my mind running off with things.

I agree though if there are 3 wolf scans on ITC, its hard to argue going for that today.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by ImTheCrew

daddy torgo is a student

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Night 1 Result: I scanned NTNDEACON. He came up a WOLF.

I really can't say I am surprised by either of these results. I am taking nothing that any of my top 3 candidates for wolfdom as gospel.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Well the only issue that I worry about here is we're basing some of that on Ntndeacon's word which right now isn't looking too trustworthy. It appears that if Cronin and Ntn both are indeed wolves, they would have communication now with each other based on cronin's scan of ntn last night.

So part of me is wondering if ntn is throwing a diversion to keep cronin alive another day. Whether or not imthecrew is a wolf is an interesting decision then as ntn might have scanned someone else and instead just said he scanned ITC to buy cronin time.. or he could have scanned him and have him not turn up as a wolf for him... or this whole conspiracy theory could be unfounded and my mind running off with things.

I agree though if there are 3 wolf scans on ITC, its hard to argue going for that today.

A problem with your idea of my diversionary tactics is that I have said who ibelieve to be the 3 wolves. I scanned one of those 3. If the group wants to vote for st. cronin over ITC or DT I have no qualms whatsoever. But I believe those 3 are the wolves. so the fact that DT claims to have scanned me and it came up wolf is inconsequential to me. To be honest Isort of expected st. cronin to "scan" me as a wolf too. I guess he thought he could use the cover morethan the doubt thrown on me.

[hoopsguy]

Interesting game so far - I can't remember another day where I've been as passive about following the group. But I don't have meaningful info to provide, as I've scanned the two dead guys.

VOTE IMTHECREW

[DaddyTorgo]

problem with your analysis ntn is that i'm no wolf.

i was out the door early on this one advocating that everyone needed to reveal their scans and was insturmental yesterday both in putting forth the need for a "plan" of scans, as well as trying to modify them to get them so that there was redundancy (on everyone too, go back and look, it's not like i was trying to hide anyone).

your insistence that i am a wolf, based on your one scan of me (which we know there's a 25% chance could be wrong, and we've seen 2 people get wrong scans...or at least one get one wrong (me) and one either get one wrong or lie (hoops) when talking about lathum, so it's not inconceivable that you could have gotten the bad % and saw me as a wolf; anyways, this insistence that i am a wolf is only moving you further up my suspect list.

you need to make the critical leap in this game that there are villagers who are going to show up as wolves a % of the time. just because someone comes up as a wolf once doesn't mean they are a wolf. hell, as we saw, even twice doesn't guarentee anything. it's all about lowering our probability though. well that and figuring out who we can trust. but that trust is hampered by the fact that (as happened with me on D1) people can get false scan results and believe they are true.

so we're either going to have to coalesce around a very lucky student or two (until the wolves off them) and follow them, or else play the %'s.

(my longest WW post ever??)

[ntndeacon]

So I don't forget....
Vote ImtheCrew

[hoopsguy]

I'm a little nervous about doing this because this could be a do/die vote for us if I understand the numbers correctly.

1. Start off with 6-3
2. Student Lathum dies, 5-3
3. Student Render dies, 4-3
4. We make wrong vote here, 3-3 with night kill coming

It wouldn't be over in terms of victory conditions (must kill all) but it would be if the wolves have established communication with each other.

Each of the last two days Chief and NTN have been among the last two to chime in with their findings (going from memory here). If they are in communication with each other then they could orchestrate the events today in a way where they could assume control of the overall numbers.

Paranoid? Probably, but that scenario doesn't seem too out there as I typed it up.