Werewolf XLVII City of Wonder (Game Over!)

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I used a wolf scanner on him, too. I thought there was only going to be one of each item?

I believe the rules state that there will be copies of some items.

[hoopsguy]

Note - my list was as of post #187, now updated to account for Path's info:

Day 1 items:
Cronin - wolf scanner (cleared AE)
DaddyT - crystal ball
Mystery player - psychic link (contacted me)
Hoops - psychic link (did not contact Path or Pass)
Pass - pardon (passed to CR)
Path - wolf scanner (condemned AE)

In fairness, Cronin did not say he used the wolf scanner, but that was the item I saw on the list that matches his description. Path has stated he used the wolf scanner.

[Passacaglia]

Items
At the start of the game each player will receive at least 1 item. All items below are in the game and some items are in the game more than once. Some items are randomly given to a player with no items. If all players have an item, it will be randomly given to a player who has the fewest items. Items may only be exchanged at night.

For reference.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by path12

Really? What item did you use on Ardent?

I ask because I used the wolf scanner on him last night, and he came up wolf. I chose him for two reasons -- I have a hard time reading him, and he voted for DT.

VOTE ARDENT

Well guess this makes today interesting. Path and Cronin both revealed different things.. why would someone lie about this on day 2? Unless one didn't know the other got scanned by someone else as well.

Do we trust Path or trust Ardent + Cronin?

I think Cronin's move seems alot fishier than Path's as he revealed before knowing someone else scanned Ardent. Path revealed after knowing full well there would be a dispute.

For now until I see other evidence pointing elsewhere, I think I'll have to side with Path on this..

Vote Ardent

[st.cronin]

Checked my role pm, I had a wolf scanner. Used once, now discarded. Is there an item, when used, which could give either path or me a bad view? I see an "item blocker," but nothing that could give us these results.

[hoopsguy]

What I do think makes sense at this point, is that if Ardent is the lynch today that either Path/Cronin is the wolf scan for this evening.

Assuming, of course, that item is in play again tonight.

[Swaggs]

Someone is busted...

Just not sure who yet.

[st.cronin]

Alan, if you're voting for ardent, then you must think I'm lying, no? What possible reason could I have to lie?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Checked my role pm, I had a wolf scanner. Used once, now discarded. Is there an item, when used, which could give either path or me a bad view? I see an "item blocker," but nothing that could give us these results.

Or perhaps you and Ardent being buddy's staged your dispute yesterday and are on the same team.

[Passacaglia]

I was looking for that, too, cronin, but I don't see anything. My gut reaction is to believe path at this point, but I'm going to wait a little bit before deciding.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Alan, if you're voting for ardent, then you must think I'm lying, no? What possible reason could I have to lie?

My guess is you didn't know someone else scanned Ardent last night so when you two cooked up this scheme, you failed to think of this possibility. Either way this is easily enough tested today with the vote.

[path12]

There would have to be some order to the scan. Does an item blocker only have one time use? That's the only thing I can figure that doesn't include Cronin trying to clear Ardent casually.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Checked my role pm, I had a wolf scanner. Used once, now discarded. Is there an item, when used, which could give either path or me a bad view? I see an "item blocker," but nothing that could give us these results.

Let's just say that I can construct a scenario where you and Path could both be telling the truth about your actions and your results. But I don't want to provide cover for any guilty parties here - let them figure it out for themselves.

That is why I think that, barring further reveals today, we probably need to go ahead with an Ardent vote today and then hope someone can validate/condemn one of you/Path tonight.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Alan T

My guess is you didn't know someone else scanned Ardent last night so when you two cooked up this scheme, you failed to think of this possibility. Either way this is easily enough tested today with the vote.

Dola, and my reasoning for this is your reaction to finding out there was a second wolf scanner out there. That didn't seem to cross your mind before your reveal. Thus busting your plan.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Or perhaps you and Ardent being buddy's staged your dispute yesterday and are on the same team.

Ok, work with me on this. Suppose I'm a wolf. How bad a play would it be for me to clear a fellow wolf? If either one of us got lynched, the other would immediately follow.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by path12

There would have to be some order to the scan. Does an item blocker only have one time use? That's the only thing I can figure that doesn't include Cronin trying to clear Ardent casually.

From the way I read it, an item blocker would prevent the scan from happening at all.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I thought he might take some heat for not voting yesterday, even though it's not a particularly wolfish move. So he seemed like the best candidate to both be a villager and get lynched.

well I think I know where we are heading today but IMO the fact that chief was lynched is interesting.

Order of Night Actions
1. Items being given away are sent
2. Items being used are activated
3. Wolves attack
4. Items which are randomly given are given

I can see a scenerio where you pass the pardon to CR, then kill him in hopes of getting it back in the hands of wolves.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, what makes this particularly inconvenient for Cronin isn't the presence of a 2nd wolf scanner, but the fact that it was used on the same target he scanned with a different result.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Let's just say that I can construct a scenario where you and Path could both be telling the truth about your actions and your results. But I don't want to provide cover for any guilty parties here - let them figure it out for themselves.

That is why I think that, barring further reveals today, we probably need to go ahead with an Ardent vote today and then hope someone can validate/condemn one of you/Path tonight.

I suppose we could just ask ardent if he's a wolf.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Lathum

well I think I know where we are heading today but IMO the fact that chief was lynched is interesting.



I can see a scenerio where you pass the pardon to CR, then kill him in hopes of getting it back in the hands of wolves.

Slim hope. Something like 3 out of 13, I'd say? And if that's the case, why would I tell everyone I passed him the pardon, if I was being devious about wanting it back?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I suppose we could just ask ardent if he's a wolf.

I'm pretty sure I can tell you what his answer will be.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Ok, work with me on this. Suppose I'm a wolf. How bad a play would it be for me to clear a fellow wolf? If either one of us got lynched, the other would immediately follow.

Give me a better explanation then and I will consider changing my vote. If I have to choose between you being a wolf clearing a wolf Ardent, Path being a wolf condeming an innocent ardent, I find the former more likely. Your reaction showed honest suprise that there was a second wolf scanner out there. Path knew you revealed something opposite of him and had more facts coming in. I just don't see Path as a wolf making a move that would get him lynched tommorrow if Ardent turns up good. I can see several reasons you would do that.

[st.cronin]

This is definitely one of the oddest scenarios I can remember being in. I guess I have to:

Vote Path12

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Slim hope. Something like 3 out of 13, I'd say? And if that's the case, why would I tell everyone I passed him the pardon, if I was being devious about wanting it back?

where do you get 3/ 13 from?

If a player is killed by wolves the wolves will randomly receive one of that player’s items (so if the player had just one item the wolves get that item). Any other items will be randomly given to players.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

This is definitely one of the oddest scenarios I can remember being in. I guess I have to:

Vote Path12

No, vote ardent!!! Then you might get his items!!!

[Lathum]

dola- meant to use quote tags, no bold

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Lathum

where do you get 3/ 13 from?

If a player is killed by wolves the wolves will randomly receive one of that player’s items (so if the player had just one item the wolves get that item). Any other items will be randomly given to players.

My bad. I was thinking of the lynch rules. Anyway, I still think it's a lot to go through for a pardon, especially this early in the game. If I were a wolf, I'd probably pass it the one time I can, then worry about that.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Alan, what makes this particularly inconvenient for Cronin isn't the presence of a 2nd wolf scanner, but the fact that it was used on the same target he scanned with a different result.

I am not entirely sure if you are agreeing or disagreeing with me on this statement. I guess my point is that this feels like one side or the other set it up to buy trust for someone.. who or what that is I have no idea. The only other scenerio in my head right now is that path and ardent are wolves, and Ardent will die as a wolf, which helps path gain trust and condemn Ardent. So I see three different possibilities, but they all revolve around Ardent right now so I had to go with that as my vote, but I find the one I stated to be the most likely in my mind at least.

[Lathum]

I am holding off on voting AE until he has a chance to speak, allthought it is obvios what he is going to say about why he got scanned as a wolf

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

No, vote ardent!!! Then you might get his items!!!

I don't want ardent to get lynched.

[Swaggs]

I have got to lean towards believing path on this.

I just cannot fathom a wolf (or a team of wolves allowing a wolf to) make that kind of fake reveal so early in the game.

[path12]

If I'm wrong, I welcome your votes tomorrow. I don't understand what's going on and I have no other information other than what I've said, so there's not a lot else I can add to the discussion on this.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I have got to lean towards believing path on this.

I just cannot fathom a wolf (or a team of wolves allowing a wolf to) make that kind of fake reveal so early in the game.

This has me leaning with you on this one Swaggs. I just don't see the wolves making a blatant error like this.

[LoneStarGirl]

Ok like Alant I didn't use my items last night. I felt no reason to. I probably will tonight though.

I am very confused about the Path / Cronin scenario. Both said they used a wolf scanner and both are saying different things about Ardent. It looks like todays vote will come between 3 players then. And it boils down to who we trust the most unless somebody else has information they haven't told us yet...

But honestly I am more inclined to believe Path right... just going off a hunch

[Lathum]

c'mon ardent. Your on the clock

[LoneStarGirl]

I dont think Ardent should get lynched for this either. I am curious to read what he has to say about all of this. I would feel better lynching cronin.... but I dont know if his lynch will tell us anything. I honestly doubt a wolf would clear a wolf on the second day. And hoops says he has a scenario in mind in which what happened is plausible. So I definitely am going to wait to give my vote.

[Passacaglia]

Twice per game two wolves may attack at night, for the potential of two night kills.

So on any given night, it takes two wolves to make an attack? And they can do it twice? So we've already made it past one kill, and if there are less than two wolves, they can't do another?

How many wolves do we think there are, given this? I'm thinking 3-4?

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

So on any given night, it takes two wolves to make an attack? And they can do it twice? So we've already made it past one kill, and if there are less than two wolves, they can't do another?

How many wolves do we think there are, given this? I'm thinking 3-4?

One wolf per attack. Essentially twice a game they get a double night attack.

[hoopsguy]

I was figuring there would be three wolves, but should probably go double-check the items to see if there is any reason to think differently based on game balance.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

One wolf per attack. Essentially twice a game they get a double night attack.

Thanks for clearing that up. I figure no more than three wolves, then.

[hoopsguy]

Upon further review, my scenario would not give Cronin and Path different results assuming they are both villagers. They could both be right or both be wrong, but not have conflicting info.

So we clearly have 1-2 wolves in the mix here. Which way do we learn more? I'll start running scenarios in a few.

Hypothetical - if you were a wolf, would you take a 1:2 trade at this point? In other words, if you knew that two villagers would be killed before the lynch mob turned on you Day 5 would that be a "good" play compared to laying low?

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Upon further review, my scenario would not give Cronin and Path different results assuming they are both villagers. They could both be right or both be wrong, but not have conflicting info.

So we clearly have 1-2 wolves in the mix here. Which way do we learn more? I'll start running scenarios in a few.

Hypothetical - if you were a wolf, would you take a 1:2 trade at this point? In other words, if you knew that two villagers would be killed before the lynch mob turned on you Day 5 would that be a "good" play compared to laying low?

Just out of curiosity, what was your scenario?

[st.cronin]

Because, dola, I think I see where you're going with that. And if its what I'm thinking, it would make path12 the wolf.

Another thing to consider is that, if Pass is to be believed, the wolves have the pardon.

Also I still have one item, but I don't know how useful it is.

[hoopsguy]

One of the two items that give false views - Identity Switch or False Wolfsbane. However, I really don't know how I got it in my head that you two would have conflicting info with either item. Just dumb, I guess.

[LoneStarGirl]

okay guys
It is GE's birthday today so we will be gone most of the day. I will check in before we go out tonight to vote.. I promise

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, to expand on your last comment - either you or Path is a wolf. So I'm trying to figure out why Path would play the way he did as a wolf. Obviously, you have the luxury of knowing your allegiance but the rest of us have to figure it out.

I don't think a vote for Ardent is optimal, either way, today. I would rather plow through Cronin/Path first and then use what we've learned from that to figure out our stance on Mr. Enthusiast.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Upon further review, my scenario would not give Cronin and Path different results assuming they are both villagers. They could both be right or both be wrong, but not have conflicting info.

So we clearly have 1-2 wolves in the mix here. Which way do we learn more? I'll start running scenarios in a few.

Hypothetical - if you were a wolf, would you take a 1:2 trade at this point? In other words, if you knew that two villagers would be killed before the lynch mob turned on you Day 5 would that be a "good" play compared to laying low?

I think you are following the same scenerios that I lined up earlier when this came up.

The way I see it is:

1) Cronin is bad, Ardent is bad, path is good - Cronin was hoping to buy some trust for Ardent with his reveal by being out front and figuring people would look at it as too risky to be a wolf move. Plan was foiled when Path also had a scanned and scanned ardent last night. Downside to this plan in my mind - why would cronin and Ardent do this after a night that arguably they were 2 of the top 5 candidates to be viewed (along with Chief, Render and Goldeneagle in my mind)?

2) Cronin is good, Ardent is bad, path is good - I don't see how this possible with what has been told to us.

3) Cronin is bad, Ardent is good, Path is good - Once again, i don't see a strong scenerio where this shows up as Path would have told us that Ardent was good and Cronin wouldnt have most likely. In this scenerio, why would cronin have even used a wolf scanner or revealed anything?

4) Cronin is good, Ardent is bad, Path is bad - Only scenerio I can think of here is that Cronin scanned Ardent, got a false read on him due to ardent posessing an item, and Path knew this and revealed to oppose Cronin to set him up. If this is the case, why would path have done this? Cronin just vouched for Ardent, giving him a bit extra trust. This seems a very big reach as well.

5) Cronin is bad, Ardent is good, Path is bad - A big set up to get Ardent lynched then kill off one of your own? I don't see how the wolves would sacrifice a 1 for 1 swap in a game without a true seer at all.

6) Cronin is good, Ardent is good, Path is good - If someone can give me a way this is possible, I'm all ears. I havent heard or thought of one yet. I dont think this is likely at all.

7) Cronin is bad, Ardent is bad, Path is bad - Once again, why give up 2 of your own to just buy trust for one of yours? That seems incredibly foolish.

This is why I figured #1 was most likely and that Ardent and cronin are both bad, and path just busted them. My guess is that they had intended to try to point the conversation to someone else once ardent had been "cleared" and go after someone like Render or Goldeneagle today.

[st.cronin]

Only way I can see that all three of us are good is if Identity Switch, or something else, gives a bad view. For example, if somebody used Identity Switch on path, then maybe his scan gets reversed? That's not in the rules, but I can see it as a possibility.

[ntndeacon]

I think I believe path's report over cronin's at the moment. I am also not sure that there are 2 wolf trackers. So I will go with my gut here.
Vote St cronin

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, why would it give a bad view to one player and not the other? I'm more than happy to submit a question to Barkeep to ask if that is how it works (consider this post that action) but the way I interpret Post #1 does not coincide with the conflicting views.